The climate challenge. Is ‘Human Society’ the cause? This crisis is man-made (not natural) Overpopulation? This crisis is directly linked to the capitalist.

The climate challenge

Is ‘Human Society’ the cause?

• This crisis is man-made (not natural)

• Overpopulation?

• This crisis is directly linked to the capitalist mode of production

The greenhouse effectSolar

radiation

50%

20%

100% 26%

4%

Conduction, Evaporation

Infrared

H2O

CO2 , CH4, N20

+15°C+15°C390 Wm-2

Capture

153 Wm-2

The greenhouse effect

• A natural phenomenon

• Makes life on Earth possible• Higher temperature: liquid water is available• Brings inertia to the system

• Main gases responsible:• Carbon dioxide (CO2)

• Methane (CH4)

• Nitrous oxide (N2O)

• Water vapour (H2O)

• Direct link to the carbon cycle

The carbon cycle

The imbalance of the carbon cycle

• Vegetation / Atmosphere• Respiration : 60 Gt / year• Photosynthesis : 62 Gt / year• Net result = - 2 Gt / year

• Oceans / Atmosphere• In solution : 92 Gt / year• Release : 90 Gt / year• Net result = - 2 Gt / year

• Deforestation : +2 Gt / year• Burning of oil, coal, gas = +6 Gt / year• In total :

• +8 Gt / year released by human activities • THIS IS TWO TIMES TOO MUCH!!

The phenomenon of warming, causes and consequences

Causes of global warming

• Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution:– CO2 : + 31 %

– CH4 : + 150 %

– N2O : + 15 %

• 3 crucial « events »– Industrial Revolution– Post war boom– Globalisation of exchanges

Causes of global warming• Emitting sectors in France:

• And globally :

The coming climate change

• The IPCC:– Notes the state of affairs in research and

technologies– Publishes a report every 4 years (next report

in 2013)– Works with scientific consensus– Prudent in its positions by nature

• Yet they are not reassuring us…

The future evolution of the climate

• Today: the highest concentration of CO2 and CH4 since 400,000 years

• This is only the beginning … if we don’t do anything

Emissions total 2004 – 2030Emissions per inhabitant

The reality for climate change

• No more doubts on the existence of future climate disorders

• Sudden and irreversible changes• The facts confirm the most pessimistic

forecasts

• Yet retroactive changes are not even taken into account: melting of the permafrost, destruction of the ice shelves at the poles …

Arctic sea ice summer 2012

Melting event Greenland 2012

•

Arctic sea ice minimum on the 16th of September 2012

OccupySandy.org

What concrete consequences?

• Central scenarios:– Between + 2°C et + 4°C

• Highly probable scenarios:– Between + 1,1°C et + 6,4°C

The facts confront us with the most pessimistic scenarios

Concrete consequences• With + 2°C :

• Decrease of agricultural yields• Risk of famine : + 200 million people• Lack of water : 1,8 billion people• Rising water levels: : 10 million people• Expansion of zones with malaria : + 50 million people• Extinction of 25 to 40% of all species

• With + 3°C :• - 30% of the yield of wheat in India• Risk of famine : + 600 million people• Lack of water: 4 billion people• Rising water levels: 170 million people• Numerous islands erased from the globe

• With + 4°C : • Collapse of agricultural yields• Expansion of the zones with malaria: + 400 million of people• Rising water levels:330 million people

Stop temperature rise at + 2 °C

• + 2 °C : danger limit

• How do we do it?– Stabilise the temperature– Stabilise the concentrations of GHG’s

(450ppm)– Bring emissions back to natural « recycling »

capacity– Divide worldwide emissions by half– The factor 4 to garanty equal rights for all

Maximum emission rights (TC/inhabitant) to divide world emissions by 2, with 6 billion people…

…or to divide by 3 with 9 billion people

Berger 2005

To stop at + 2 °C

• Emissions must decline before 2015• Developed countries (compared to 1990)

• - 25 to - 40% in 2020• - 80 to - 95% in 2050

• From 2020 on, developed countries must deviate substantially from the trajectory (except Africa)

• World emissions : -50 à -85% en 2050

Climate policies of the

dominant Powers

The general trend

• Subordinate adaptation to the rhythm and needs of capital– Cost-risk analysis (example = Stern report)– Priority of technological solutions– Creation of new markets – New developement cycle of capital : « green

capitalism  »• Point to the responsability of emerging countries• Use climate menace to impose their neoliberal

policies

The Kyoto protocol

• Some positive aspects :– « common but differentiated responsabilities »– Concrete targets and sanctions

• BUT numerous problems– Insufficient targets: - 5,2 % (reduced to - 1,7%)– Emissions of maritime and air transport not taken into

account– Carbon sinks = Emission reductions– Possible delocalisation of the efforts (CDM,MOC…)– Emission rights and carbon market: a form of

privatisation of parts of the atmosphere

Recent evolution of policies by the great powers

• Insufficient commitments:• -20% in 2020 for the EU• Obama wants less than Kyoto

• Ever more flexible mecanisms• Their role was limited with Kyoto• New technologies integrated as clean technologies: carbon

sequestration, nuclear, biofuels…• A specific market for the forests:REDD

• Make the lower classes take the brunt of the effort (ex : Carbon Tax )

• The answers to the climate and the economic crisis are contradictory, inconsistent public policies: cars, public transport…

All negotiations ended in failure

• UNEP: market forces, economic growth, green technologies

In the face of a predicted failure, the menace of a barbaric management

• New Orleans• Tuvalu, Vanuatu• The « Climate » report of the Pentagon:• The monstre storm « Sandy »« the numbers of deaths caused by wars, by

famine and by disease will decrease the size of the population which will readapt to the carrying capacity ». 

Source: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for the US National Security, SCWARTZ & RANDALL, 2003

A catastrophy can perhaps be avoided (in part…)

Personal energy savings …

• A policy of« small gestures » is not sufficient

• Fight against attempts to make you feel guilty

• An important part of what you buy, of transportation … is unavoidable

• Necessity of collective action to

make possible a lifestyle that saves energy and is low in carbon use

Saving energy to lower emissions

• What possibilities?– Suppress useless/harmful productions

• Armement, the army…• Numerous manufacturing of chemicals, of fertilisers…• Advertisements

– Energy efficiency• Rehabilitation of housing• Norms for electrical devices• Norms of car engines…

– Reorganisation of society (the most important source)• Ex. of transportation :

– Urbanisation : working class expulsed far from the city centre– Problemes of freight : production « just in time », international

division of labour according to the cost of labour

Renewable energies

• Solar : an IMMENSE potential

• Its caracter limits its valorisation in a capitalist system:– Low density in energy– Difficult to appropriate

• Necessity of a new orientation of research

• Necessity of making available and of large distribution of technologies: not only for those who can pay …

Renewables 8,1%

Budgets R&D Energie (AIE)

Research to be urgently

redirected!

Our anticapitalist project

Necessity of an anticapitalist strategy

• The market is powerless:– A change which is too radical– Time is too short– Any change needs the « agreement of the citizens »

• Capitalism confronts social forces with a dilemma– « To save nature or to increase the conditions of

exploitation of the workers »– Increase the costs of the exploitation of nature versus a

lowering of the cost of the work force• Our ecosocialist project :

– Planning based at the same time on the democratically determined needs and taking into account the ecological problems

Transitional method linked to an emergency program

• A pedagocical role:– Demonstrate that it is possible– Confront capitalism with its contradictions

• Link the social and the ecological dimension– The crises are fed by the same mecanisms:

competition, search for profits, dictatorship of the markets …

– Put the fulfillment of social needs and the respect of ecological equilibria at the centre of our program and our struggles

Examples of sectoral demands • Suppression of unnecessary and harmful industries• The building sector :

– Public service of housing and renovation• Transportation of commodities:

– Ban on long distance transport by road– Public policy for the development of infrastructure for rail transport

• Transportation of people:– Free public transport– Development of the possibilities for public transport infrastructure– Stop the development of suburbia– « reintroduction » of the working classes in the city centres

• The energy sector:– For a public service of the whole of the energy sector– Nationalisation of the big companies in the sector– Decentralisation of the means of production of energy– … in order to allow control by users and by employees

• Agriculture : food sovereignty and organic/ecological farming– Drastic reduction of nitrogen containing fertilizers– A break with the productivist logic in the farming world

An emergency plan withprofound transformations

• Reorganisation and transformation of labour• People’s control on production• Get out of the contradiction consumer/worker:

– Reduction of working hours must be a central axis of our program

• Necessary industrial reconversions :– Garantee employment, contracts, wages and work

collectives – To be applied by the workers themselves