The Chilling Stars A new theory of climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Danish National Space Center Basel, Marts2007
Jan 21, 2016
The Chilling StarsA new theory of climate change
Henrik Svensmark,
Center for Sun Climate Research
Danish National Space Center
Basel, Marts2007
Variations in Cosmic Ray Flux Affects Earths Climate, and Cause Variations in Climate.
Cosmic Rays and Climate
Examples withSolar Modulated Cosmic rays
CLIMATECOSMIC RAYS
What are Cosmic Rays?Heliosphere, Cosmic Rays and Solar Activity
Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)
One month of observation
Movie
Cosmic ray shower (Movie)
About 70 muons/s /m2 at the Earths surface In 24 hours about 12 million muons goes through a human body
Cosmic Rays in a Cloud Chamber (movie)
Cosmic rays and climate over the last millennium
8
Cosmic rays and climate over the last 10.000 years
Bond et al, Science 294, 2001
Last 1000 yearsLittle Ice Age
• Little Ice Age is merely the most recent of a dozen such events during the last 10.000 years
How can STARS influence Climate?
Possible physical mechanism
• Mechanism that amplifies tiny GCR energy input
Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, JASTP 1997, Svensmark, PRL 1998, Marsh & Svensmark, PRL, 2000. (update 2005)
Link between Low Cloud Cover and Galactic Cosmic Rays?
Micro-physicalMechanism?
CLOUDS
CLIMATECOSMICRAYS
Experimental Studiesat DNSC in Copenhagen
Cloud Drop
CCN(Cloud Condensation Nuclei)
CN(Condensation Nuclei)
UCN(Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei)
0.1 m 10 m0.01 m0.001 m
Aerosol formation and growth
Size
H2SO4 &
Water&
OrganicVapors
Possible link between clouds and cosmic rays
Nucleation processhas been a mystery
Cloud Drop
CCN(Cloud Condensation Nuclei)
CN(Condensation Nuclei)
UCN(Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei)
0.1 m 10 m0.01 m0.001 m
Aerosol formation and growth
Size
H2SO4 &
Water
Vapors
What is the importance of IONS ?
-
+
Cosmic Ray Ionization &
Gamma source Gamma source
Muon detector Radon detectorSO2
O3
H2O
Steady state experiment
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 q (cm-3 s-1)
H2SO4 concentration ~ 2*108 (cm-3)
O3 ~ 25 ppbSO2 ~ 300 pptRH ~ 35%
Svensmark et al. PRA 2006
Äspö Hard Rock Laboratoriet, Sweden
Hopefully an experiment will take place with near zero ionization in spring 2007
500
m
Next experiment
Surface 70 /s/m2
100 m 0.7 /s/m2200 m 0.07 /s/m2
However radon is aconcern - lead shield
( How to stop cosmic rays)
Hard Rock Laboratory, Aspø Sweden ~ 500 meter of rock
Micro-physicalMechanism?
CLOUDS
CLIMATECOSMICRAYS
GALACTICPROCESSES
Micro-physicalMechanism?
The Milky Way, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays
Starformation, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays
The Milky Way, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays
Birdseye view of Milkyway
Svensmark A&G 2007
Cosmic rays and spiral arm crossing
Shaviv, PRL (2002)Million of Years
200 0
1.5
1
0.5
0
400600
Est
imat
ed C
osm
ic R
ay F
lux
Svensmark A&G 2007
What about longer time scales, i.e over the history of the Earth 4.6 Billion years?
Although Cosmic ray fluxes are not known so far back
in time, they can be constructed from knowledge of
1. Solar Evolution
2. History of Star Formation Rate in the Milky Way
Insight to the evolution of our Sun is gained from extensive studies of solar proxies with ages from 100 Myr to 10 Gyr
Solar Evolution
2/ RVM LIMP
Pressure balance ISMPtMVtR /)()(
00 )()( MtMt Heliopause
The young Sun was rotating at a rate at least 10 times faster than today.
As a consequence, 1) The Sun had a vigorous magnetic activity 2) Coronal X-ray and EUV emissions up to 1000 times stronger than today. 3) The Sun had a denser solar wind A better shilding of Cosmic rays
Solar Evolution, Star Rate Formation and Cosmic Rays
Svensmark, Astronomical Notes 2006
Starformation, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays
Solar Evolution, Star Rate Formation and Cosmic Rays
Svensmark, Astronomical Notes 2006
Starformation, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays
Formation and interaction between galaxies
Minor merger (dawfgalaxy) with spiral galaxy
Cosmic Rays and the Biosphere in 4 Billion Years
10 GeV
C = 0.92
Svensmark, Astronomical Notes 2006
Starformation, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays
1. Variations in Star Formation Rate in the Milky Way and Solar Evolution Cause Variations in the Cosmic Ray Flux Impacting Earth.
2. Variations in Cosmic Ray Flux Cause Variations in Climate.
3. Variations in Climate Cause Variations in total Biological Productivity.
The Argumentation is Based on the Following Assumptions About Cause and Effects
Starformation, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays
If more carbon is stored in one of these reservoirs, the isotopic composition of others reservoirs changes to reflect that storage. For instance: if there is more carbon stored in organic matter which is isotopically light, the average carbon composition of dissolved carbon in the ocean and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will become heavier.
Carbon IsotopesThe various reservoirs of carbon on Earth (limestone, biota and CO2 in atmosphere)
Starformation, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays
Svensmark, Astronomical Notes 2006
Carbon 13 during 3.8 billion years
StandarddeviationIn steps of400 mill yr
Starformation, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays
Cosmic Rays and the Biosphere in 4 Billion Years
10 GeV
C = 0.92
Svensmark, Astronomical Notes 2006
Starformation, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays
Hofman and Schrag point to cap carbonate abruptly above glaciomarine dropstone
Snowball Earth
Cold Climate
Equator Pole
Ice
Warm Cold
Large temperature difference between equator and poleStrong winds – Mixing of Nutriants
Large biological productivityLarge fluctuations biological productivity possible
Starformation, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays
Hot Climate
Equator Pole
Hot Warm
Small temperature difference between equator and poleWeak winds – Little Mixing of Nutriants
Small biological productivitySmall fluctuations in biological productivity
Starformation, Super Novae and Cosmic Rays
Conclusion
Particles from space seems to influence Earths climate,ranging from years to 109 years.
Part of the missing physical mechanism has been demonstrated experimentally• Involving ions and aerosol formation• Linking to clouds and thereby the energy budget of the Earth
Understanding the cosmic ray climate link could have large implications in our understanding of climate changes and possible evolution on Earth.
The evolution of the Milky Way and the Earth is linked
It is not suggested that it is the only cause of climate change.
The team:
Martin Enghoff
Nigel D. Marsh
Jens Olaf Pedersen
Ulrik I. Uggerhøj
Henrik SvensmarkCenter for
Sun-Climate Research