NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA Incorporating the 2nd The Changing Role of Simulation Joe Walsh intrinSIM, USA Bradley Holtz Cyon Research, USA
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Incorporating the 2nd
The Changing Role of Simulation
Joe WalshintrinSIM, USA
Bradley HoltzCyon Research, USA
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
The Changing Role of Simulation
• The use of Simulation has seen continual double digit % growth annually for about 30 years until 2008
• This cumulative growth now means that Simulation is a significant portion of the Engineering Software Market and a driver for future growth
• This has resulted in increased focus and investment in simulation by major PLM software vendors
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
The Changing Role of Simulation
• This growth is coupled with increasing awareness that Simulation is the key enabler toIncreased Competitiveness
• The changing role of simulation is more about it’s role in business than the changes in technology
• Let’s explore the Simulation as it relates to perceived Business Value and breadth of applicability
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Failure Analysis• This is where it
begins – Understanding
“why it failed”• Run by a few
“experts” • Dominated by test
vs analysis comparisons
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Design Validation
• Checking before it fails
• The dawn of Virtual Prototyping
• Broader use of simulation
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Design Decision Support
• Why not use simulation to make better design decisions
• Why not ask designers to run simulations
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Design Drivers
• Simulation making design decisions
"We are only at the verge of the era where simulation generates, rather than evaluates, geometry."
Keith Meintjes, CIMdata
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Systems Engineering
• Driven by growth of embedded software
• Heavily used in EDA world
• Design drivers extended to systems
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Business value = broader demand
• Demand should be increasing on a classic S curve
• Is simulation at an inflection point to break through ?
Simulation Demand
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Business value = broader demand
• intrinSIM looked at actual & projected MCAE Market growth since 2009 (Courtesy of Cambashi data observatories)
MCAE Approx. Growth Rate
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Chart2
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Growth Rate
MCAE Approx. Growth Rate
-0.1093240303
0.1154686817
0.1660660582
0.075382927
0.0780685965
0.0933136324
0.0963872406
Sheet1
-10.93%11.55%16.61%7.54%7.81%9.33%9.64%
20082009201020112012201320142015
AltairVendor1152,000136,000172,000212,000250,372277,208304,996333,998
ANSYS WorkbenchVendor2425,542408,339458,386536,651586,128637,653702,319777,066
DS - SimuliaVendor3141,855144,022169,589202,809234,324271,908318,477371,761
ESIVendor4103,262104,612111,692131,108143,785153,792165,054176,140
LMS (now part of SPLM)Vendor5176,516150,301179,078247,741273,127305,821343,172385,963
MSCVendor6254,386218,066199,500207,500221,971231,805244,414255,810
50%Other CAE % of other MFGOther944,437796,364893,5131,008,5971,028,6541,073,9541,149,1841,237,979
2,197,9981,957,7042,183,7582,546,4062,738,3612,952,1413,227,6163,538,717
AltairVendor1-11%26%23%18%11%10%10%
ANSYS WorkbenchVendor2-4%12%17%9%9%10%11%
DS - SimuliaVendor32%18%20%16%16%17%17%
ESIVendor41%7%17%10%7%7%7%
LMS (now part of SPLM)Vendor5-15%19%38%10%12%12%12%
MSCVendor6-14%-9%4%7%4%5%5%
Other CAE @ 50% of other MCAEOther-16%12%13%2%4%7%8%
Sheet1
Vendor1
Vendor2
Vendor3
Vendor4
Vendor5
Vendor6
Other
MCAE Approx. Worldwide Revenue in $ 1,000s
Sheet2
Vendor1
Vendor2
Vendor3
Vendor4
Vendor5
Vendor6
Other
MCAE Approx. Worldwide Revenue in $ 1,000s
Sheet3
Growth Rate
MCAE Approx. Growth Rate
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Business value = broader demand
• Inserted MCAE growth and evolution based outlook
• This does not look like an inflection point
• What happened?
Expertise Required MCAE Market Trends evolution
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Business value = broader demand
• Simulation is still done primarily by specialized Analysts
• Growth of MCAE market is tempered due to lack of expertise available
Expertise Available Expertise Required
MCAE Market Trends evolution
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Business Drivers
• Business Drivers are going to force a “revolution” to overcome the expertise based limitation
• Simulation will be forced to find a way
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Business Drivers
• The demand is not going away
• A Simulation revolution will occur:– “Fit for purpose”– “Smart” – “Integrated”– “Transparent”
Expertise Available Expertise Required
MCAE Market Trends revolution
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Enabling the Revolution• Increased emphasis on
purpose built applications• Increased emphasis on
Systems Engineering• Emergence of simulation
knowledge capture & reuse
• Emergence of near real time / near physics approaches
• Unlimited access for the appropriate “performance” evaluation needed
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
ASSESS is Born
• “… we should have a separate conference just on this topic.” – Rod Dreisbach, Boeing
• Lunch with Brad Holtz (Cyon Research)
– “…let’s start with a Summit”– Several discussion and a few
months later and the Analysis, Simulation & Systems Engineering Summit was born
http://c4uc.org/News/Summit.aspx
http://c4uc.org/News/Summit.aspx
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
ASSESS is Born
• January 2015• Santa Fe Institute as a host• 40 people for a summit
Analysis & Simulation focusSystem Engineering focusDesign focusIndustry AnalystsFinancial AnalystsEnd usersSoftware VendorsDomestic & International representation
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
ASSESS at COFES
• ASESS had a strong presence at COFES (Congress On the Future of Engineering Software) 2015– Summary overview of the Summit– Presentations on Key Issues from the Summit– Roundtable discussion regarding ASSESS
next steps
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Key Issues from the Summit
• Design-centered Workflow Keith Meintjes
• Ease of use & usabilityMalcolm Panthaki
• Pre-CAD analysis and optimization Steve Levine on behalf of Dipankar Choudhury
• Impact of web/cloud/mobileJon Hirschtick
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Key Issues from the Summit
• Knowledge capture & reuseMarc Halpern
• Ability to combine heterogeneous models in a systems approach
Steve Coy & Hubertus Tummescheit
• Appropriate model fidelity & role of unsexy stuff
Jack Ring on behalf of Mary Fortier
• Licensing models need to be revisited
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
ASSESS Next Steps
• Analysis, Simulation & Systems Engineering Strategy initiative– First pass at mission statement
“Expanding the use and benefit of Model Based Simulation, Analysis and Systems Engineering”
2005 2015 2020?1 in 22 1 in 6 ALL
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
ASSESS Next Steps
• Establish a community for communication– Creating multiple ASSESS LinkedIn groups
• Investigate organizational form going forward– Consortium / or part of an existing organization– intrinSIM working with AES and others to explore
potential government funding
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
ASSESS Next Steps
• ASSESS Symposium/ Conference planned– Joint activity by Cyon
Research and intrinSIM– Currently targeted for
January 2016 (1st or 2nd week)– Target larger audience than
the Summit (100-120)
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Summary
• The Role of Simulation is changing– Growth is limited by available expertise– Simulation is increasingly being seen as a
key enabler for Competitive Advantage– Business Drivers are going to force a
Revolution– Technologies are emerging to enable the
Revolution
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Summary
• Analysis, Simulation & Systems Engineering Strategy (ASSESS) initiative has been started to address this changing role– Collaborative industry wide effort
“Expanding the use and benefit of Model Based Simulation, Analysis and Systems Engineering”
NAFEMS World Congress 2015 | 21-24 June | San Diego | California | USA
Summary
• ASSESS activities– Sponsored by Cyon Research and intrinSIM– Initial Summit was January 2015– COFES 2015 sessions covering Summit Report &
ASSESS next steps • Summit report
– Creation of ASSESS LinkedIn Groups – Next ASSESS event is being planned for Jan 2016
– Contact us to become part of ASSESS
The Changing Role of SimulationThe Changing Role of SimulationThe Changing Role of SimulationFailure AnalysisDesign ValidationDesign Decision SupportDesign DriversSystems EngineeringBusiness value = broader demandBusiness value = broader demandBusiness value = broader demandBusiness value = broader demandBusiness DriversBusiness DriversEnabling the RevolutionASSESS is BornASSESS is BornASSESS at COFESKey Issues from the SummitKey Issues from the SummitASSESS Next StepsASSESS Next StepsASSESS Next StepsSummarySummarySummary