The Changing Demographics of Texas and Their Impact on our Nonprofit Sector The Texas Nonprofit Summit September 20, 2012 Austin, Texas
May 14, 2015
The Changing Demographics of Texas and Their Impact on
our Nonprofit Sector
The Texas Nonprofit Summit
September 20, 2012Austin, Texas
2
Growing States, 2000-2010
2000Population*
2010Population*
NumericalChange
2000-2010
PercentChange
2000-2010
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
15.7% of numerical change in U.S.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.
3
Percent Change Due to
Year* PopulationNumerical
ChangePercentChange
NaturalIncrease
NetMigration
1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --
1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09
1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26
1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42
1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15
2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35
2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 54.04 45.33
2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6
2011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.79 44.99
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011
4
The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
Percent Increase
1. Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Wash. 4.3
2. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas 3.9
3. Hinesville-Fort Stewart, Ga. 3.44. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas 3.05. Raleigh-Cary, N.C. 2.96. Warner Robins, Ga. 2.97. Provo-Orem, Utah 2.7
8. Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, S.C. 2.6
9. Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach-Conway, S.C. 2.6
10. Yuma, Ariz. 2.6
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
5
The 10 Metro Areas with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
NumericIncrease
1. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 154,774
2. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas 139,699
3. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.Va. 121,911
4. New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. 118,791
5. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. 115,964
6. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla. 105,490
7. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. 90,345
8. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 80,146
9. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Ariz. 70,349
10. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas 67,230
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
6
The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
NumericIncrease
1. Harris, Texas 88,4522. Los Angeles, Calif. 70,4513. Maricopa, Ariz. 63,1274. Miami-Dade, Fla. 58,3315. Riverside, Calif. 49,9796. Dallas, Texas 47,8757. Orange, Calif. 45,5138. San Diego, Calif. 44,7569. Bexar, Texas 41,37610. Tarrant, Texas 40,776
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
Texas contains eight of the 25 counties with the highest numerical gains
7
Texas Business-Cycle Index
8
Texas Jobs Growing Faster Than Nation’s
9
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2000 to 2001
2001 to 2002
2002 to 2003
2003 to 2004
2004 to 2005
2005 to 2006
2006 to 2007
2007 to 2008
2008 to 2009
International
State-to-State
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates
Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009
Hurricane Katrina
10
Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity
Net domesti
c migr
ation
Internati
onal migr
ation
Total0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
44%24% 33%
28%50% 40%
23% 8% 15%
5%18% 12%
OtherBlackHispanicWhite
67% of all migrants
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau
(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)
52% of all migrants were international
11
States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010
State Estimate (thousands)
Range
California 2,550 (2,350 - 2,750)
Texas 1,650 (1,450 - 1,850)
Florida 825 (725 - 950)
New York 625 (525 - 725)
New Jersey 550 (425 - 650)
Illinois 525 (425 - 625)
Georgia 425 (300 - 550)
Arizona 400 (275 - 500)
Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).
6.5% of Texas’ 2010 Population
12
Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center
Legend
-20 to -45%
-19 to -10%
-9 to -5%
-4 to 0%
1 to 5 %
6 to 20%
21 to 30%
31 to 65%
13
Legend
0-1%
1-2.5%
2.5-3.5%
3.5-5%
5-10%
Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center
14http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
15http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010
NH White53%
NH Black12%
NH Other
4%
Hispanic or Latino
32%
2000
NH White45%
NH Black11%
NH Other
6%
His-panic or Latino38%
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
17
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
Under 1 year13 years 26 years 39 years 52 years 65 years 78 years 91 years0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
White (non-Hispanic) Hispanic
Age
Popu
latio
n
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
18Under 1 year
4 years8 years
12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years
100 to 104 years
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non HispanicFemale White, Non-Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
19Under 1 year
4 years8 years
12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years
100 to 104 years
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
20Under 1 year
4 years8 years
12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years
100 to 104 years
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non HispanicFemale Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
21
Total Population by County, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Counts
Legend
co48_d00
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10
82 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,001
100,001 - 500,001
500,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 - 4,100,000
22
Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
Legend
co48_d00
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010
-3,200 - 0
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
79 counties lost population over the decade
Percent of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Under Poverty for During Past 12 Months, 2005-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
5-20%
20-30%
30-40%
40-55%
$18,000-30,000
$ 30,000-35,000
$ 35,000-40,000
$40,000-50,000
$ 50,000-76,000
Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
25
Educational Attainment in Texas, 2009
Level of Educational Attainment
Percent of persons aged 25 years and older
State Ranking
High school diploma or equivalency
79.9% 50
Bachelors 25.5% 31
Graduate 8.5% 33
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009.
26
Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level aged 25 years and more, Texas, 2009
19%
6%
71%
3%
67%
8%
15%
9%
Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.
Less Than High SchoolCollege and Greater
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Education Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.
No High School Diploma
High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Professional Degree
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
18.8
29.0 28.7
18.2
5.3
30.128.7
23.9
12.9
4.4
2000 2040
Perc
ent
28
Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2000'PROJECTIONS X$'.phys001
0
.01-.5
.51-1
1.1-1.5
1.51-4
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. Texas Medical Board. Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
-3 to -0.5
-0.49 to -.001
0
.001 to .5
.51-2.1
Physician Rate Physician Rate Change, 2000-2010
29
Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2008
Physcians per 1,000 persons aged 65+'Age 65p County$'.Physper1k65p
0
GT 0 - LE 5
GT 5 - LE 10
GT 10 - LE 20
GT 20
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates. Texas Medical Board.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Not Border Border Not Border BorderNon-Metro Non-Metro Metropolitan Metropolitan Total
020406080
100120140160180200
95
53
175
110
159
2009Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Estimates.Department of State Health Services. Health Professions Resource Center Database.
Physicians per 100,000 byMetro & Border Status of Counties, 2009
30
31
Percent of People Lacking Health Insurance Coverage by Metro and Non-Metro Area, 2009
Metropolitan Areas
less than 20%
20.0% to 22.9%
23.0% to 25.9%
over 26%
PUMAs
Non-Metropolitan Areas
less than 20%
20.0% to 22.9%
23.0% to 25.9%
over 26%
Metropolitan Areas
less than 20%
20.0% to 22.9%
23.0% to 25.9%
over 26%
PUMAs
Non-Metropolitan Areas
less than 20%
20.0% to 22.9%
23.0% to 25.9%
over 26%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 American Community Survey .Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
The Census Bureau estimates that in 2009 Texas had the highest uninsured rate in the country, at 26.1%, or 6.4 million people.
Texas also had the highest uninsured rate of children, with 17.4%, or 1.28 million children lacking insurance.
Note: Public includes individuals with public only and those with public plus private insurance. Private includes individuals who only have private insurance.Source: American Community Survey, 2010 PUMS data
Percent Health Insurance Coverage by Race/Ethnicityand Type of Insurance, 2010
32
White Black Hispanic Asian Other0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
14
23
37
202625
3229
15
22
61
45
34
66
52
None Public Private
33Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections
Year
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040
34
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
AngloBlackHispanicOther
Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 2000-2007 Migration Scenario
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040
35
Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2009 Estimated
Percent of the Total Population aged 65 Pct 2009TOT_POPP9
LE 10%
GT 10% - LE 15%
GT 15% - LE 20%
GT 20% - LE 25%
GT 25%
Total Population aged 65 plus 2009TOT_POP9
LE 5,000
GT 5,000 - LE 15,000
GT 15,000 - LE 25,000
GT 25,000 - LE 100,000
GT 100,000
Percent 65 Years and Older Population 65 Years and Older
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Estimates.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
36
Projected Population Among Older Texans
20002003
20062009
20122015
20182021
20242027
20302033
20362039
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Age 65-74 Age 75-85 Age 85+
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.
Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected
2000 Count 2040 Projection
Percent 65 Years Old and Older
< 11.9 (n=66)
12.0 - 14.9 (n=70)
15.0 - 19.9 (n=80)
20.0 or more (n=38)
Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1.
Percent 65 Years Old and Older
< 11.9 (n=2)
12.0 - 14.9 (n=19)
15.0 - 19.9 (n=79)
20.0 or more (n=154)
Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas Population Estimatesand Projections Program, 2006 Projections.
<11.912.0 – 14.915.0 – 19.920.0 or more
37
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census Count. Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
38
Teen Birth Rate by State, 2006
Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Rank State Birth rate per 1,000 women ages 15-19
1 Mississippi 68.42 New Mexico 64.13 Texas 63.14 Arkansas 62.35 Arizona 626 Oklahoma 59.67 Nevada 55.88 Tennessee 54.79 Kentucky 54.6
10 Georgia 54.211 Louisiana 53.912 Alabama 53.5
39
Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040
Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections
40
Estimated Number of Adults with Obesity by County, 2008
Legend
co48_d00
Sheet1$.Nadultobes
0-10,000
10,001-25,000
25,001-75,000
75,001-250,000
250,001-73,000
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: National Diabetes Surveillance System. Available online at: http://apps.nccd.cdc.gov/DDTSTRS/default.aspx.
41
Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040
2010
2020
2030
2040
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
Total Latino Anglo African American Other
Source: Office of the State Demographer, 2010
42
Projected Percent of the Adult Population with Diabetes by County, 2010 and 2040
LE 15%
15-20%
20-25%
25-30%
30-37.5%
2010 2040
43
Demographics and Destiny
44
Contact
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H.