The challenges of the future 2050

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BY EMIL SALIM, INDONESIA25Y.APEX, 6/10/2012; KUNTORO-MEETING 24/10/2012.

TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE 2015-2035

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THE CHALLENGES 2015-2035

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EXPECTED GROWTH1. Population 7 billion 2012 to 9 billion 2050;2. Gross World Prod. $7tr. 2012 to $200 tr 2050 3. Energy-related CO2 emissions from 13 Giga-tons

1970 to 50 Gt in 2050; large regions will surpass 2*C in average annual temperature by 2040 combined with changing wheater pattern;

4. In 1970-2008 Global-Living-Planet Index -30% Global-Tropical-Index -60%, Human Ecological Footprints >50% of Bio-capacity;Tropical Fresh Water Index -70%

5. Indonesia Jawa-Riau-Bali-North Celebes footrpints exceed Regional Bio-Capacity 2010;

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GLOBAL THREATS OF POVERTYIn a World of 7 billion people (2012):1. 1 out of 5 persons lives on <$1.25 a day;2. close to 1 billion go hungry every day;3. 1.5 billion have no access to electricity;4. 2.5 billion have no toilets & sanitation facilities;5. “Intensity of Poverty” as joint distribution of

their deprivation (nutrition, toilet, water, elec-tricity) is highest in poorest countries;

6. 1.189 million poor are in Middle-Income coun-tries, 459 million in Low-Income countries;

7. Gini-Coefficient, indicator of inequality is rising between and within countries;

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“ECONOMIC BUSINESS-AS-USUAL”

1. Corporations generate 60% of annual GWP;2. Corporate externalities of top 3000

corporations cost $2.5 tril.=3.5% Global Gross Product

3. Global business practices have made human ecological footprints > 50% of global bio-capacity;

4. Corporate lobbying spending (US) has risen from $1.5 bil.(1998) to 3.5 billion (2010);

5. Financial market > real sector market in growth;

6. Increasing Total Debt as % of countries’ GDP by Financial Institutions, Government, Non-Financial Business and Households are increasing

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CRITICAL ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT

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CONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT

1. Anthropocentric, disregarding biosphere;2. Pursuit of indefinite growth with preference

for “more” for human satisfaction;3. Economic activities are thought of series of

activities guided by invisible hands of market;

4. Production = physyically activity affected by natural resource, energy and food. Trade, ex-changes = financial activity of Gov. and Priv.

5. Growth is affected by “future expectations” revealed through rate of interests influenced by government & business interventons

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FOCUS OF STRATEGIC ISSUESShift time-frame of expected growth from short term to long term (2015-2035) by interlinking economic-social-environment to reach for cluster of: Quality economic growth with Rising Human Development Index and Social Equity; Sustained use of natural resources below the

biological capacity of ecosystem and resource replenishment;

In a economic-sosial-environmental matrix of achievements, with each sector acting as a consraint to the other in the process of sustainable development

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THE PARADIGMOF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTMoving away from “single economic only track of development” into “triple economic-social-envi-ronment (ESE) track of sustainable development:1. Raising income with value-added of resources through

science and technology;2. Social development by improving “accessibility

bottlenecks” (economic connectivcity, financial services, education, health, technology, natural resources, politics) and empowering civil society;

3. Maintaining environmental sustainability by keeping ecological footprints below the bio- and life support system capacity;

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URBAN SUSTAINABILITY INDEX

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LOWER ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTS WITH HIGHER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX

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COMMON BUT DIFFERENTIATEDRESPONSIB ILITIES AMONG

NATIONSCOUNTRY: HUM.DEV.INDEX: BIOCAPACITY:USA very high overshoot highAustralia very high overshoot highJapan very high overshoot highChina low overshoot lowIndia low below Indonesia low belowAfghanistan very low much below

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SHIFTING TOWARDS RENEWABLE ENERGY

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GREEN JOB ENERGY DEVELOPMENT

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TOWARDS INCLUSIVE MARKET APPROACH

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INDONESIAN BUSINESS INVOLVEMENT IN MDG

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REQUIREMENTS FORSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

1. Triangle partnership: business-govt.-civil society;2. Stages of Political Democracy development with

stages of Sustainable Development;3. Change indicator of development “from GDP to

Equitable Global Human Wellbeing”;4. Promote Global Sustainable Development

Partnership in raising among others value added of renewable sources (Squalene, farmacy) and “green non-renewable resources development” (green coal, energy, etc) through human capacity building in bio-technology;

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SOURCES OF REFERENCES

1. WWF, “Living Planet Report 2012”;2. Pavan Sukhdev, “Green Economy” in “Green

Economic Conference”, Jakarta, Sept. 2012;3. UNDP, “One Planet to Share”, Asia-Pacific

Human Development Report, May 2012;4. McKinsey & Company, “McKinsey on

Sustainability & Resource Productivity”, 2012;5. UNEP, “Towards a Green Economy” 2011;6. Global Compact Network Indonesia, “Growing

Inclusive Markets: Indonesia Cases” vol.1/2010;7. Richard Heinberg, “The End of Growth”, New

Society Publishers,Canada, 2011.