The Challenges for Nigerian agriculture in 21-st century

The Challenges for

Nigerian agriculturein 21-st century

J a r o s ł a w KoperaM a ł g o r z a t a Major

B a r t o s z MłodkowskiP i o t r Senkus

Presentation Plan

1. Key figures

2. Agriculture facts

3. The challenges for Nigerian agriculture

4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development

Nigeria

Key figures

1. Key figures 2. 3. 4.

Key figures - general

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Africa Nigeria World

Current population in Nigeria has exceeded 180 million of people that makesover 17% population of Africa and 2,4% of the world population. The dynamicof growth is lower than in the World and the rest of Africa.


Nigeria has very good society structureaccording to the good perspective ofdevelopment.


Key figures – general (2013 data)

source: Adeola Falodun, Doing business in Nigeria, 2016

Key figures - technology

Mobile Internet Users65 813 890

32,9 % of total population

Mobile Subscribers129,391,392

74,1 % of total population

source: ITU, June 3013 Mobile Subscribers: NCC, April, 2014

75% of adults living in urban areas and 39% of adults living in rural areas

have access to a pre-paid mobile phone


Key figures - technology

source: Adeola Falodun, Doing business in Nigeria, 2016

Nigeria has the largest internet population in Africa … and is 8th in the World


Key figures - GDP

source: Emeka Onuzuruike, How The “Recession” in Nigeria will favour “Tech-based” enterprises, 2016

The GDP of Nigeria has been constantly growing until 2014 to the level of 568Billion of USD, but in 2015 has started to fall. The gross domestic product (GDP)is equal to the total expenditures for all final goods and services producedwithin the country in a stipulated period of time.


2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Key figures – GDP Growth

The main cause of this “slowdown” of GDP output is because the Nigerianeconomy is tightly-coupled to “commodity prices” in the international marketsespecially oil.

source: Emeka Onuzuruike, How The “Recession” in Nigeria will favour “Tech-based” enterprises, 2016


Key figures – Problems

1. National identity problem2. Poverty3. Corruption4. Inequality5. Terrorism6. High level of child mortality7. Unemployment8. Poor education9. Tribalism10.Home violence


Except of GDP slowdown Nigeria suffers also some other problems andchallenges.

Nigeria

Agriculture facts

2. Agriculture facts - workforce1. 3. 4.

Agriculture remains the dominant sector in the rural areas of Nigeria. It providesemployment for about 60% to 70% of the work force

Over 77,9% of the area of the country is agricultural area, but only about 48% isarable land

2. Agriculture facts - land1. 3. 4.

1000ha

The estimated total crops production is about 152 million tones

2. Agriculture facts – crops production1. 3. 4.

The production of meat is about 140 million tones

2. Agriculture facts – animal production1. 3. 4.

Agriculture trade in Nigeria

2. Agriculture facts – international trade1. 3. 4.

Nigeria

The challenges for Nigerian agriculture

Numerous challenges related to agriculture has been identified:

3. The challenges for Nigerian agriculture1. 2. 4.

Input Supply • GES’s limited focus and exit strategy set aside, with materialimplications for Ministry’s budget, hence the sharp rise inindebtedness to banks. The system has many leakages fromfarmer registration and data capture to supply and distributionmechanism.

• Insufficient access to improved variety seeds e.g. still a300,000MT gap between demand and supply of seeds

Financing • Credit access particularly for small holders remains weak• Backlog of unpaid GES loans (estimated at N39B) has slowed

down bank lending• Of ~$8 billion in domestic and foreign investor commitments

often cited, only limited volumes actually moved from idea toreality

Infrastructure & Logistics

• Investment inflows into infrastructure and midstream logisticse.g. warehouses, storage, processing systems remainsrudimentary

• Staple crop processing zone (SCPZ) strategy has not yieldresults. For example, Kogi SCPZ has not taken off due towithdrawal of Cargill, the anchor investor from the project


Production • Growth in food production remains limited due to gaps in inputsupplies e.g. rice; hence rice imports still exceed $1billion/annum. Outlined below is an illustrative “bestestimates1” of demand-supply gaps given data quality issuesstill present in Nigeria. It is anticipated that as production gapsare closed via yield improvements, per/ton equivalent costswill also decline, helping reduce food costs and ultimately,inflation.

Market Access • Post-harvest losses still an issue but improving moderately• Illegal food imports remain an issue, depriving farmers of

market opportunities

Others • Federal – State coordination of policy became significantchallenge; some states made choices at odds with federalapproach e.g. continuing direct procurement of fertilizer

• Absence of programme delivery infrastructure / unit at thefederal and state levels; held back key implementation anddonor funding

• Data collection and evidence based reporting remains weak,hence tracking results / M&E continues to be a challenge



Crop Demand (mln tons.pcs.)

Supply(mln tons/pcs.)

Observations

Rice 6.3 2.3 • Insufficient supply chain integrationremains issue

Wheat 4.7 0.6 • Driven by demand for various types ofwheat (white, hard, durum), etc. forbread, biscuits and semovita

Maize/Corn 7.5 7.0 • Limited imports required but can shiftdue to feed demand

Soya Beans 0.75 0.6 • Animal feed and protein cost alt. drivingdemand

Chickens 200 140 • Gap filled by illegal imports that entermarket at lower price point than domesticproducers; gap also a moving target basedon fast food/QSR demand


Nigeria

The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development

4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

There should be another scenario for Nigeria to solve the agriculture problems


Europe, European Union and even Poland face different problems than Nigeria,and based on best experiences of other countries has to develop own way thatwould go parallel with the newest technological, social, environmental andeconomical trends

“It is not the strongest speciesthat survive, nor the mostintelligent, but the ones mostresponsive to change.”

Charles Robert Darwin


“if you do not change you’redead”

Jack Welsh, former CEO GE

“If change is happening on the outside faster than on the inside the end is in sight.”Jack Welsh, former CEO GE


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„We can't solve problems byusing the same kind of thinkingwe used when we createdthem”

Albert Einstein


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First wave – agrarian age – has started over 10 000 year ago andwas consequence of developing of farming skills.


Second wave – industrial wave – has begun with developing thefonts by Johannes Gensfleisch zur Laden zum Gutenberg about1450. The wave has escalated by the work of James Watt, who hasimproved in 1763 the steam engine developed by ThomasNewcomen. That wave has revolutionize the ways to produce steel,electricity and has brought the most of inventions we are usingtoday.


Third wave – information wave – it is related with technologicalrevolution, Internet, communication revolution and knowledgesharing.


Broadband Internet use 1998 and 2008

The experience from the past waves are require new

development attitudes for Nigeria


The traditional “Cradle to Grave” design paradigm

A one way street


Food production depends on soil. Soil takes tens of thousands of years to form.

The traditional model in agriculture means the loss of topsoil.More than half of agricultural soil is lost or seriously degraded


Loss of topsoil due to:

Intensive

over-farming

Incineration & landfilling

of nutrients

Urbanization


Every year we lose 4000 – 6000 times more humus

… than we build up.

That is why new model is needed

In the European regions it takes 100 to 300 years

to build a Layer of 1 cm of Humus.

25 cm of Humus are needed

to have soil which is fertile enough to be used for food production.


Irresponsible management of water resources used for agriculture,irrigation of big cotton plantations has caused drying of the "AralSea" and ecological disaster.

1960 2010White, K. D. (2014). Nature and Economy in the Aral Sea Basin. In The Aral Sea (pp. 301-335). Springer Berlin Heidelberg.


Nutrient metabolisms. The basis for applying C2C principles & goals

&


The new “Cradle to Cradle” design paradigm

Principles of the Cradle to Cradle® design paradigm

WASTE EQUALS FOOD Nutrients become nutrients again

orEverything is a resource for something else

USE CURRENT SOLAR INCOMERenewable sources powered by sun

CELEBRATE DIVERSITYBiodiversity

Cultural diversityConceptual diversity


The program for developing Nigerian Agriculture should include

Developing the family farm model to make them food self-sufficient

Developing the co-cooperative model for proper quality of agriculture supply

Building the broadband Internet infrastructure to spread specific knowledge


The Challenges for Nigerian agriculture in 21-st century

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