The Challenge of Projecting Future Sea Levels in the Chesapeake Bay Region Donald F. Boesch February 18, 2014 Severn River Association
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The Challenge of Projecting Future Sea Levels in the Chesapeake Bay Region
Donald F. Boesch
February 18, 2014
Severn River Association
MVN RSM Program
2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment
climatechange.maryland.gov
MVN RSM Program
Climate Action Plans
climatechange.maryland.gov
MVN RSM Program
Updating SLR Projections
climatechange.maryland.gov
MVN RSM Program
Sea Level Had Been Stable 2000 Years
0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.4
-0.4
meters
Kemp et al. 2011. Proc. National Acad. Sci
Tide gauges
Paleo-reconstruction
MVN RSM Program
Global Mean Sea Level by Satellite Altimeter
sealevel.colorado.edu
MVN RSM Program
What Causes Sea Level To Change?
MVN RSM Program
World Ocean is Warming
MVN RSM Program 99
Velicogna 2009 GRL
Polar Ice Sheet Loss
MVN RSM Program
NRC Global Sea-Level Rise Projections
National Research Council. 2012. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon and Washington: Past, Present and Future.
global mean sea level rise from 2000best estimates
MVN RSM Program
Fingerprints of Polar Ice Sheet Melting
West Antarctica
Greenland
MVN RSM Program
Do You Have A Sinking Feeling?
Florida Maryland New York New England
Early Interglacial
Late Interglacial
The glacial forebulge collapses and land surface subsides
MVN RSM Program
Slowing of Gulf Stream Raises Sea Level
Based on work of Tal Ezer and colleagues, Old Dominion UniversityJ. Geophysical Research 118:685
Gulf Stream strength
Tide gauge level trends
MVN RSM Program
How Much Will Sea Level Rise in Maryland?
MVN RSM Program
Sea-Level Rise Will Not Stop in 2100
Schaeffer et al. 2012 Nature Climate Change 2: 867.
ending all emissions in 2016
stabilizing at 2ºC
MVN RSM Program
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment
It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.
Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
www.ipcc.ch
MVN RSM Program
How Much Has It Warmed?
www.ipcc.ch
about 0.9°C or 1.6°F
Global average land and ocean
temperature
MVN RSM Program
How Much Will it Warm?
www.ipcc.ch
Global average surface temperature
7.2°F
3.6°F
It mainly depends on how much greenhouse gases we emit.
RCP8.5 = ‘business as usual’ continued growth in emissionsRCP2.6 = rapid reductions in GHG emissions to 0 by 2070
MVN RSM Program
How Much Will the Seas Rise?
www.ipcc.ch
Unlike temperature, sea level rise does not stabilize during century
MVN RSM Program
Elicitation of Estimates by Experts
MVN RSM Program
Exp
ert
elic
itat
ion
Exp
ert
elic
it.
Exp
ert
elic
itat
ion
Exp
ert
elic
itat
ion
Unrestrainedemissions
Drasticreductions
83%
17%
83%
17%
95%
5%
95%
5%
IPC
C
IPC
C
IPC
C
IPC
C
NR
C 2
012
21002050
0.5
1.0
1.5
NR
C 2
012
0
Glo
bal
Mea
n S
ea-L
evel
Ris
e (m
eter
s)
Unrestrainedemissions
Drasticreductions
MVN RSM Program
Mar
ylan
d
21002050
1
2
3
4
5
Mar
ylan
d
Rel
ativ
e S
ea-L
evel
Ris
e (f
eet)
New
Jer
sey
New
Jer
sey
Miller et al. 2013. AGU Earth’s Future
MVN RSM Program
Consequences of Sea-Level Rise
Light blue: salt marshes
Greens: < 2 m, suscept-ible to innundation
Orange-yellow: 2-4 m, susceptible to storm surge
Greater Bay volume, ocean influence
MVN RSM Program
Tidal Wetlands and Sea-Level Rise
Kirwan & Megonigal 2013. Nature 404:53
Human activities have significant consequences
for stability
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