The Centre for Actuarial Research and Demographic teaching and research in South Africa Centre for Actuarial Research (CARe) A Research Unit of the University.

The Centre for Actuarial Researchand

Demographic teaching and research in South Africa

Centre for Actuarial Research (CARe)A Research Unit of the University of Cape Town

Outline

Background and overview of CARe History Focus areas Research outputs

Demographic teaching and research UCT Other universities in South Africa (briefly)

History of CARe

Started in 2001 Three directors and one RA Four strands (Health care financing, Social

security, Demography, HIV/AIDS modelling) Evolved into current structure:

Director Three Senior Lecturers Two Senior Researchers Two Research Assistants and post doctoral fellowships

History of CARe

Focus now on AIDS modelling and demography Unique, in that we have a teaching programme

embedded in a research unit reflects the awkwardness of locating technical

demography as a discipline “demography is an interdiscipline” Stycos (1989)

but also the importance we attach to the symbiosis between research and teaching

it works well

Focus : Demographic research

Demographic research and teaching Director, Senior Lecturers and post-doctoral fellows

are the ‘demographers’ Although we each have interests in the focus areas

of others, we each have specialist interests: fertility (TM) and mortality and population projections (RD)

Much research involves estimation and interpretation of results, but we have particular interests in interrogating and improving the methods of estimation and in devising methods for interrogating data quality

We are all responsible for teaching and supervision

Overarching themes Improvement of old, and derivation of new, methods of

estimating demographic parameters from limited and defective data

Derivation of population estimates Production of fertility and mortality rates for SA

Mortality Reconciliation of mortality data from Southern and Eastern

Africa with estimates from the UN Establishing impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality and interventions

on that Fertility

Patterns of childbearing in Southern and Eastern Africa Methods and motives for contraceptive use

Migration Internal and international migration in SA

Demographic research

Focus

HIV/AIDS modelling Leigh Johnson and RD are involved in developing and

using the HIV/AIDS models HIV/AIDS research has been contentious in South Africa

(possibly none more so than the production of estimates of the numbers of infected, sick and dying)

The model we work on derives from and is released under the auspices of the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA)

More on this in another session

Focus

Other activities Research consulting

Recent: NACA/UNDP Botswana, Gauteng government Past: BER, Stats SA, PGWC, Cape Metro, SAAVI, various small

contracts Research seminar series

Around 12-15 a year, 4-6 international visitors p.a. This year so far: Wolfgang Lutz (IIASA, AAS), Gigi Santow, Ian

Timaeus (LSHTM) and Michael Bracher Others: e.g. Simon Gregson (Imperial, Zim MRC), Bob McCaa (U

Minnesota), Tim Dyson (LSE), Sam Clark (U Washington), David Lam (U Michigan), Simon Sreter (Oxford), Cedeplar

Publication of monographs, occasional papers, etc SAJD

Research highlights

Significant contributions (with MRC) to the definitive work on burden of disease and cause of death in South Africa

Publications in highly rated international journals: Population Studies; Demographic Research; Journal of Southern African Studies; Sexually Transmitted Infections; AIDS

Significant monographs written for Stats SA (2) and the Medical Research Council (2), one of which has been downloaded more than 20 000 times (by the time counting stopped!)

Funding

Four main sources: Significant research contracts Other research contracts to undertake small projects Short courses (although primary concern is to cross-

subsidise participation) Funding from Mellon and Hewlett Foundations to

support the development of (particularly teaching of) technical demography – posts and scholarships

Collaboration

Africa Centre (DSS in northern KwaZulu-Natal) Memorandum of Understanding projects: modelling, validation Graduate student from UCT working there as demographer

Dikgale (DSS in Limpopo province, SA) LSHTM – Ian Timæus University of Washington – Sam Clark & Adrian Raftery Cedeplar

Collaboration Others

Wolfgang Lutz (IIASA) UN Population Division UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and

Projections South Africa

MRC, HSRC, Stats SA, SAAVI DoH, DoSD, National Treasury TAC, C A S E, Children’s Institute, DataFirst, Saldru, BER ASSA Other Mellon-funded University programmes (Wits, UKZN)

Other INDEPTH, Other Hewlett-funded institutions in Africa (Wits,

University of Nairobi, Gold Coast)

Demography at UCT

Demography in South Africa was highly politicised during the apartheid era Seen to be politically compromised No teaching or training (and very little research) into

demography at English-speaking universities in South Africa until after 1994

Then UNFPA funding of several institutions – not UCT - followed by grants from the Andrew W Mellon Foundation to three institutions in South Africa (KZN, Wits, UCT)

Regarded as a ‘scarce skill’ in South Africa

Demography at UCT

At UCT, some research had been done on demography in the late 1980s and 1990s historical demography, using mission station church

records to reconstruct mortality trends at the end of the 19th century

derivation of national life tables leadership role in the development of the ASSA Aids

and demographic model from the mid-1990s on collaborative work with the MRC.

… but no structured teaching, training or research programme

Demography at UCT

The Mellon grants changed this 1st grant (1998-2001) largely used to run a detailed

demographic, economic and anthropometric study in the Southern Cape First trained demographer employed in 2000, a joint

appointment between the School of Economics 2nd grant (2001-4) split, broadly, between CARe

(teaching) and Saldru (research) MPhil in demography launched in 2003 First doctoral students enrolled

3rd Mellon grant, 2004-7 continues in same vein Mellon funding ends in 2007

Demography at UCT

Hewlett Foundation grants Further support for demographic teaching, training

and research

Rationale for CARe’s approach

An audit of demographic training in Southern and Eastern Africa, conducted in 2004-5 Focus is unique in the region

The only institution engaged in teaching, training and research in technical demography

Skills in technical demography are being lost, due in part to the post-Cairo consensus which prioritises reproductive health over demography But there is still a strong need for these skills to

estimate demographic parameters, and to assist with planning; but data are not getting any better

Rationale for CARe’s approach

Strong need for a (small) cadre of technically-sound demographers, trained to Carefully assess and analyse local census and survey

data, to maximise the utility of this information in informing public policy

Estimate demographic parameters and project populations

Train future generations in these skills

Programmes offered

PhD in demography UK model – 3 year independent research Coursework to ensure foundational knowledge Increasingly moving to a 1+3 model

MPhil in demography 18+ months, coursework and dissertation Emphasis on technical skills

MCom in economics and demography Resuscitated and relaunched in 2005

BSc in statistics and demography Designed as a long-term feeder for the MPhil

MPhil in Demography

1st semester Basic demography Biostatistics for

demographers Social research methods Topics in population

studies Topics in Southern

African demography

2nd semester Techniques of

demographic estimation Population projections

3rd semester Dissertation

(Selected) course contents

Basic Demography Based on Preston, Heuveline and Guillot Foundational material Taught in 11 2-hour lectures 11 2-hour tutorials Examined via open-book, computer-based

examination

(Selected) course contents

Demographic Estimation Indirect techniques – starts with Manual X, but goes

on to include Relational Gompertz models and projected parity progression ratios (Brass-Juarez); variable-r techniques, including Synthetic Extinct Generation methods.

Emphasis on understanding assumptions and application of methods

Student-derived spreadsheets … no PASex! 24 2-hour lectures and 24 2-hour tutorials covered in

12 weeks.

(Selected) course contents

Population Projections Theory and methods of population projection Allowing for HIV/AIDS Use of different models

Spectrum/EPP/AIM ASSA

12 2-hour lectures and 12 2-hour tutorials

Current student research projects

Doctoral Topics Child mortality in South Africa Ethnic variations in fertility in Zambia

Masters Thesis Topics Fertility and birth intervals in Malawi Impact of HIV/AIDS on the ‘orphanhood method’ of

estimating adult mortality Household socio-economic determinants of mortality Fitting the ASSA model to Zimbabwe AIDS and demographic modeling of a DSS in rural

South Africa

Current student research projects

Master’s projects (continued) Analysis of deaths registered by health district in the

Cape Town metropole Child mortality and birth spacing in Mozambique A new fertility schedule for use in demographic

estimation models in developing countries Methods of child mortality estimation applied to

Zambia and Malawi Fertility decline in Lesotho since the 1970s

Other training, data access and collaborative opportunities at CARe

Short course on demographic modelling using the ASSA model Week-long course run every June-July

Data First Resource centre dedicated to archiving census and

survey data Holds most African DHS data, as well as large

amounts of census data Visiting demographers

CARe has resources to host visiting demographers for short-term visits (<3 months) to assist in data analysis and/or interpretation

Demographic teaching and research elsewhere in South Africa

Mellon-funded institutions (-2007) U. KwaZulu-Natal: focus on population-poverty links U. Witwatersrand: focus on public health and

migration. Also funded by Hewlett (2005-) Other institutions

University of the North-West University of the Western Cape

Most of these institutions are relatively weak in the area of formal or technical demography