The case for a global greenhouse gas standard for light-duty vehicles based on the California model Russell Long, Ph.D. Bluewater Network Founder, Executive.

The case for a global The case for a global greenhouse gas standard for greenhouse gas standard for

light-duty vehicles based on the light-duty vehicles based on the California modelCalifornia model

Russell Long, Ph.D.Bluewater Network

Founder, Executive Director

Global WarmingGlobal Warming

Threatens progress on the most important social and environmental problems of our

time.

Burning of fossil fuels is the Burning of fossil fuels is the #1 cause of global warming#1 cause of global warming

Transport accounts for two-Transport accounts for two-thirds of US oil consumptionthirds of US oil consumption

Transportation trendsTransportation trends• Virtually all transport energy comes Virtually all transport energy comes

from petroleumfrom petroleum

• In the US, 76% of US transport In the US, 76% of US transport energy is used by highway vehicles, energy is used by highway vehicles, of which 60% is from cars and light of which 60% is from cars and light trucks (almost half of total)trucks (almost half of total)

COCO22 from a Model T driven in from a Model T driven in 1909 is still in the 1909 is still in the

atmosphere, warming our atmosphere, warming our planetplanet

• Average US fuel mileage from new Average US fuel mileage from new light duty vehicles in 2003 has fallen light duty vehicles in 2003 has fallen 6% in the past 15 years6% in the past 15 years

• US transportation energy US transportation energy consumption is increasing by 1.8% consumption is increasing by 1.8% annually, faster than any other annually, faster than any other category, much of this due to category, much of this due to passenger vehiclespassenger vehicles

Transportation TrendsTransportation Trends

Someone Ought to Pass a Someone Ought to Pass a LawLaw• Oil, Big Auto blocking US efforts to Oil, Big Auto blocking US efforts to

increase federal fuel mileage increase federal fuel mileage standardsstandards

• November 2000, Bluewater Network November 2000, Bluewater Network conceives of and sponsors AB 1493: conceives of and sponsors AB 1493: California’s Climate-Friendly Car LawCalifornia’s Climate-Friendly Car Law

• Goal: regulate greenhouse gases just Goal: regulate greenhouse gases just like other pollutantslike other pollutants

California’s Climate-Friendly California’s Climate-Friendly Car LawCar Law

• First law specifically targeting First law specifically targeting reductions of greenhouse gases from reductions of greenhouse gases from passenger vehicles; nearly 40% of passenger vehicles; nearly 40% of state GHG inventorystate GHG inventory

• Strong mandate; requires “Strong mandate; requires “maximum maximum feasible cost-effective reduction of feasible cost-effective reduction of greenhouse gases from new greenhouse gases from new passenger vehicles”.passenger vehicles”.

The Air Resources Board:The Air Resources Board:a history of firstsa history of firsts

• Required smog controls such as Required smog controls such as catalytic converters on vehiclescatalytic converters on vehicles

• Created low-emissions/zero emissions Created low-emissions/zero emissions vehicle mandate that led to low-smog vehicle mandate that led to low-smog vehicles, alt-fueled vehicles, electric vehicles, alt-fueled vehicles, electric cars, and hybrids cars, and hybrids

• Result: California cars in 2003 produce Result: California cars in 2003 produce 99% less smog than in 197099% less smog than in 1970

ObstaclesObstacles Round OneRound One

• Auto industry/oil industry reportedly spent Auto industry/oil industry reportedly spent over $5 million on deceptive ad campaignover $5 million on deceptive ad campaign– RadioRadio– TelevisionTelevision– PrintPrint

• Convinced many citizens that the new law Convinced many citizens that the new law would raise the price of fuel and vehicleswould raise the price of fuel and vehicles

• Thousands of angry phone calls, letters, and Thousands of angry phone calls, letters, and emails poured into State Capitol opposing billemails poured into State Capitol opposing bill

California’s Climate-Friendly California’s Climate-Friendly Car LawCar Law

• Legislation prohibitsLegislation prohibits– speed limit reductionsspeed limit reductions– driving or trip limitationsdriving or trip limitations– ban on SUV salesban on SUV sales– land-use requirementsland-use requirements– new auto or fuel taxesnew auto or fuel taxes

The Road to VictoryThe Road to Victory Supporters include:Supporters include:

• National political and entertainment National political and entertainment figures: Senators McCain and Kerry, figures: Senators McCain and Kerry, Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, Robert Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, Robert Redford, Barbra StreisandRedford, Barbra Streisand

• Unions and Associations (Teachers, Unions and Associations (Teachers, Firefighters, Nurses, Service Workers, Firefighters, Nurses, Service Workers, Fishers, etc.)Fishers, etc.)

• Business leaders and industry (Ski Business leaders and industry (Ski industry, Silicon Valley entrepreneurs)industry, Silicon Valley entrepreneurs)

The Road to VictoryThe Road to Victory Supporters include:Supporters include:

• Air and Water Quality AgenciesAir and Water Quality Agencies

• Churches and Religious LeadersChurches and Religious Leaders

• Public Health and Environmental Public Health and Environmental OrganizationsOrganizations

• FarmersFarmers

• Local GovernmentsLocal Governments

• Major NewspapersMajor Newspapers

July 2002 bill signing ceremonyJuly 2002 bill signing ceremonyfor CA Climate-Friendly Car Lawfor CA Climate-Friendly Car Law

Nuts and Bolts of the Nuts and Bolts of the RegulationRegulation

• Affects new vehicles, starting with model Affects new vehicles, starting with model year 2009year 2009

• The state has until December 31, 2004 The state has until December 31, 2004 to develop actual regulatory languageto develop actual regulatory language

• Potential for absolute cap on emissions Potential for absolute cap on emissions from all new passenger vehicles in statefrom all new passenger vehicles in state

• Potential for ramping up alternative fuels Potential for ramping up alternative fuels and alternative fueled vehiclesand alternative fueled vehicles

Options under Options under considerationconsideration

• Change catalyst or refrigerant: Change catalyst or refrigerant: 2%2%

• Eliminate smog-forming pollution & Eliminate smog-forming pollution & particulate matter: particulate matter: 3%3%

•Increase Efficiency: Increase Efficiency: 25-60%25-60%

•Change fuels: Change fuels: << 100% 100%

Efficiency is a “No-Brainer”Efficiency is a “No-Brainer”

• Today’s Toyota Prius cuts greenhouse Today’s Toyota Prius cuts greenhouse gas emissions almost in half compared gas emissions almost in half compared to Toyota Camry, or a quarter that of a to Toyota Camry, or a quarter that of a large SUVlarge SUV

But not enough…But not enough…

• Still 4 tons of carbon dioxide per year - Still 4 tons of carbon dioxide per year - because it uses the wrong fuelbecause it uses the wrong fuel

Fuel-Technology BenefitsFuel-Technology Benefits• Hydrogen from US grid energy (w/ fuel cell): Hydrogen from US grid energy (w/ fuel cell): nonenone

• Corn ethanol (E85 flex fuel vehicle): Corn ethanol (E85 flex fuel vehicle): 20%20%• Compressed natural gas (CNG vehicles): Compressed natural gas (CNG vehicles): 20%20%

• 2004 gasoline hybrid: 2004 gasoline hybrid: 25-35%25-35%• Hydrogen from natural gas (fuel cell): Hydrogen from natural gas (fuel cell): 30-50%30-50%

• Natural gas electricity (EV):Natural gas electricity (EV): 38% 38%

• Idealized hybrid incl. mass reduction: Idealized hybrid incl. mass reduction: 60%60%

• Biodiesel: Biodiesel: 78%78%

•Renewable hydrogen: Renewable hydrogen: <<100%100%•Biogas: Biogas: <<100%100%

•Cellulosic ethanol: Cellulosic ethanol: <<100%100%

Fossil Hydrogen Reality Fossil Hydrogen Reality CheckCheck•Economic: Economic:

– Barring regulatory controls, the free Barring regulatory controls, the free market will dictate that the lowest cost market will dictate that the lowest cost fuel inputs will be used to make fuel inputs will be used to make hydrogen, e.g. coalhydrogen, e.g. coal

– Excessive barriers to development of Excessive barriers to development of hydrogen vehicles/infrastructure, hydrogen vehicles/infrastructure, especially developing nationsespecially developing nations

Fossil Hydrogen Reality Fossil Hydrogen Reality CheckCheck

•Technologic: Carbon storage for Technologic: Carbon storage for hydrogen produced from coal or hydrogen produced from coal or natural gas steam reformation natural gas steam reformation still unproven:still unproven:– Permanent sequestration may be Permanent sequestration may be

a fantasy. Déjà vu - parallels to a fantasy. Déjà vu - parallels to nuclear waste storagenuclear waste storage

Renewable HydrogenRenewable Hydrogen

• Need to set minimum renewable Need to set minimum renewable hydrogen content requirementshydrogen content requirements• Expensive on gas-equivalent basis, but Expensive on gas-equivalent basis, but

price expected to fall dramatically in price expected to fall dramatically in near-termnear-term

• As costs decline, percentage of renewable As costs decline, percentage of renewable hydrogen to be increasedhydrogen to be increased

CA Climate-Friendly Car LawCA Climate-Friendly Car LawRound TwoRound Two

• Gov. Schwarzenegger — friend or Gov. Schwarzenegger — friend or foe?foe?

• Regulations finished by Dec. 31, Regulations finished by Dec. 31, 20042004

• 2005 legislative review 2005 legislative review

• 2005 Auto industry lawsuit: federal 2005 Auto industry lawsuit: federal preemption questionpreemption question

The Need for a Global Fuel The Need for a Global Fuel Mileage (or Vehicular GHG) Mileage (or Vehicular GHG)

StandardStandard• Growth projected from 600 million Growth projected from 600 million

passenger vehicles in 2003 to 1 billion passenger vehicles in 2003 to 1 billion before 2020before 2020

• China now #2 in auto manufacturingChina now #2 in auto manufacturing

• US transportation energy consumption US transportation energy consumption increasing at 1.8% annual rateincreasing at 1.8% annual rate

• The EU projects dramatic increasesThe EU projects dramatic increases– By 2020, EU transport oil consumption is By 2020, EU transport oil consumption is

projected to grow 34% above 1990 levelsprojected to grow 34% above 1990 levels

The Need for a Global Fuel The Need for a Global Fuel Mileage (or Vehicular GHG) Mileage (or Vehicular GHG)

StandardStandard• Technologically viable with high efficiency Technologically viable with high efficiency

technologies and lower GHG fuelstechnologies and lower GHG fuels• Politically viablePolitically viable

– Increase national energy security plansIncrease national energy security plans– Decrease air and water pollutionDecrease air and water pollution– Reduce capital outflows from oil importing Reduce capital outflows from oil importing

nationsnations– Force Big 3 to develop low GHG vehicles Force Big 3 to develop low GHG vehicles

worldwide, undermining their arguments to worldwide, undermining their arguments to Congress that they cannot build the same Congress that they cannot build the same vehicles for the USvehicles for the US

• Permit delayed implementation for Permit delayed implementation for developing nationsdeveloping nations

• Force the auto industry to develop Force the auto industry to develop most efficient vehicles and utilize most efficient vehicles and utilize appropriate alternative fuel sourcesappropriate alternative fuel sources

• Achieve new vehicle emissions Achieve new vehicle emissions reductions of up to 60% by 2020 reductions of up to 60% by 2020

UNFCCC Should Consider UNFCCC Should Consider Establishing Standards Establishing Standards

That:That:

Bluewater NetworkBluewater NetworkBluewater Network promotes critical policy Bluewater Network promotes critical policy

changes in government and industry to changes in government and industry to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and reduce dependence on fossil fuels and

eradicate other root causes of air and water eradicate other root causes of air and water pollution, global warming, and habitat pollution, global warming, and habitat

destruction.destruction.

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