The Canada Project’s Final Report Mission Possible: Sustainable Prosperity for Canada May 24, 2007 Mario Lefebvre, Director, Metropolitan Outlook Service.

The Canada Project’s Final Report

Mission Possible: Sustainable Prosperity for Canada

May 24, 2007

Mario Lefebvre, Director, Metropolitan Outlook Service [email protected]

Synthesizes leading research and thinking on the major issues affecting Canadian prosperity

Offers new analysis and arguments to expand our understanding of these issues

Injects the concept of sustainability into discussions of productivity and competitiveness

Brings urgency by demonstrating the risks of complacency and inaction.

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Mission Possible: Sustainable Prosperity for Canada

The core hypothesis: Canada is slipping, due to slow adaptation to profound global changes:

– shifting engine of economic growth from aging industrial countries to the rapidly growing emerging markets, led by China.

– integrative trade, or the realignment of international business based on global supply chains and driven by foreign direct investment.


Volume I: Stellar Canadian Performance in the Global Economy

Note: The data for Poland and Turkey are not available.Source: OECD.

0

1

2

3

4

5

Growth in Labour Productivity Among OECD Countries, 1999–2004

(average annual growth rate, per cent)

National Strategies for Success

Embrace Productivity and Competitiveness Create a Single Canadian Market Rethink the Workforce Revitalize International Trade and Investment Refocus Foreign Policy Priorities


Setting Priorities: Two Options• Option 1: Focus on “Quick Hits”

– Invest in education– Implement an innovation strategy– Re-focus foreign policy with the United States

• Option 2: Take Action in the Areas of Greatest Under-performance– Create a single Canadian market– Establish a well-defined trade and investment policy– Address the aging labour force

• Our advice: Pursue the second option —but act on all the recommendations


This volume focuses on growth in global demand for natural resources and what Canada must do to take advantage of these time-limited opportunities while also protecting the environment and the public.

The volume provides analysis and advice in four sectors: forests, agri-food, mining, energy


Volume II: A Canadian Resources Strategy for the Boom and Beyond

Growth in Global Demand

Emerging economies fuelling growth in demand for natural resources

China’s middle class is about 200 million and it will double by 2010

India’s middle class is 90 million and growing rapidly

Economies and populations of Canada and U.S. expanding.

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Volume II Shows that: Canada has vast natural resources to benefit from

the growing global demand for resource-based products

It must renew and invest in resource sectors to tap into time-limited opportunities

But these investments must be prudent to protect prosperity and the wellbeing of future generations

Decisions made must help resource sectors and communities prosper and stay resilient.


Globally, cities and city-regions are at the core of national prosperity agendas

Cities are attracting public and private investment to make them more liveable, more competitive and more sustainable

Canada is not keeping up -- why?


Volume III: Mission Possible: Successful Cities

Make major cities a national priority Strengthen the cornerstones of competitive cities

Infrastructure Sustainability -- industrial ecology Governance

Give major cities the power and fiscal resources they need for success

If we get these right, Canada will be well on its way toachieving sustainable prosperity.


Three Imperatives for Achieving Successful Cities

For years now, the CBoC has documented that Canada’s cities are under-funded

Hurray! Hurray! The message has been heard and additional money (though not enough of it) is coming

This study shows that the politically appealing per capita method of distributing this new money is not, in many cases, optimal

Given their role as economic engines in their respective provinces, new funding should be allocated strategically so as to meet the needs of the country’s nine hub cities. This would be a win-win strategy for every citizen.


Canada’s Hub Cities:A Driving Force of the National Economy

80% of Canadians live in urban areas

The trend is towards even greater urbanization

More than 50% of new arrivals settle in Toronto; another 25% split between Montreal and Vancouver; the remaining 25% elsewhere

More than half Canada’s Aboriginal people live in cities, compared with only 6.7 per cent in 1951


Canada is Highly Urbanized

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

34,000

36,000

01 05 15 25

Leader Follower

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

The Convergence Hypothesis A Textbook Case

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18


Persistence in Relative Unemployment Rates in Canada

The Lack of Labor Mobility

sk

pei

nl

nb

ns

qc

bcon

abmb

1996-2004

1987-95

6

7

8

9

10

06 07 08 09 10


Persistence (or non-) in Relative Unemployment Rates in Ontario

Labor is mobile within provinces

lo

tb

su

roos

knto

og

hakw

1996-2004

1987-95

sc

wi

Implications of the ResultsThree Convergence Scenarios

Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

62,41761,625

42,847

57,667 60,430 60,83856,471

38,991

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

Starting Point-2006

Scenario 1 - 2020 No new funding

Scenario 2 -2020 Per capita funding

Scenario 3 -2020 Hub cities priority

funding

Leader Follower

Policy Conclusions

Inter-provincial barriers mean there are nine hub cities in Canada – not just two or three

They are: Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver

Helping hub cities to reach their economic potential must be a national priority, since everyone benefits


Policy Conclusions New funding should address the full spectrum of assets that

support thriving urban economies, particularly infrastructure

But: This study does NOT suggest that a grossly disproportionate allocation of funding should go to the nine hub cities

Just an amount reflecting their distinctive needs and potential as drivers of the Canadian economy


Concluding Message from The Canada Project

• Canada has all the tools needed to reposition itself as a global leader, if it can meet the challenge and implement the strategies proposed.

• Leadership is what matters next.


Visit us at www.conferenceboard.ca

The Canada Project’s Final Report Mission Possible: Sustainable Prosperity for Canada May 24, 2007 Mario Lefebvre, Director, Metropolitan Outlook Service.

Documents

canada slide

cent slide

canadian prosperity

growing global demand

populations of canada

canadian resources strategy

sustainable prosperity

global economy