THE BRADLEY EFFECT AND THE DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION Answering questions and testing hypotheses on data for the presidential elections in the United States of America from 1980 to 2008 Wout Ultee Radboud University Nijmegen November 11, 2008 Course Contemporary sociological theories Second bachelor year
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THE BRADLEY EFFECT
AND THE
DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION
Answering questions and testing hypotheses
on data for the presidential elections
in the United States of America from 1980 to 2008
Wout Ultee
Radboud University Nijmegen
November 11, 2008
Course Contemporary sociological theories
Second bachelor year
WHY DID OBAMA WIN FROM McCAIN?
HE GOT MORE MONEY FOR TV-ADS THAN McCAIN
BUT WHY DID OBAMA GET MORE MONEY THAN McCAIN?
THERE ARE MORE RESOURCES THAN MONEY
OTHER RESOURCES ARE SYMBOLIC
AND AN EFFECTIVE SYMBOLIC RESOURCE IS CHARISMA
OR FLUENCY, THE GIFT OF THE GAB, RHETORICS
SYMBOLIC RESOURCES, YES, OBAMA USED THEM
AND OBAMA OBTAINED MONEY IN THAT WAY
BUT OBAMA NOT ONLY UTILIZED SYMBOLIC RESOURCES
OBAMA ALSO FACED SYMBOLIC HANDICAPS
OBAMA’S FOREMOST SYMBOLIC HANDICAP WAS THE COLOR OF HIS SKIN
HOW MUCH EFFECT DID THIS SYMBOLIC HANDICAP HAVE?
WE COMPLEMENT A MARXIST HYPOTHESIS WITH A RICH VERSION OF A WEBERIAN HYPOTHESIS
THE QUESTION OF THIS PRESENTATION: THEY DID, REALLY ?
THIS CARTOON DRIVES HOME A SUPOSEDLY DISAPPEARING EFFECT OF OBAMA’S SYMBOLIC HANDICAP
STATE RESULTS FOR 2004
THE PREVIOUS MAP IS FOR 2004 AND VERY RED,
WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE A REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE WON
BUT THE NEXT ONE FOR 2008 IS STILL VERY RED,
ALTHOUGH A DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE WON
THE OUTCOME OF US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2008
THE MAPS WE JUST SAW ARE QUITE MISLEADING AND FAVOUR THE REPUBLICANS TOO MUCH:
STATES DIFFER IN POPULATION DENSITY, WHEREAS DEMOCRACY MEANS ONE PERSON, ONE VOTE
AND THE STATES WITH THE LOWEST POPULATION DENSITY ARE THE MOST REPUBLICAN
THE NEXT MAP GIVES STATES A SIZE PROPORTIONATE TO THEIR NUMBER OF SEATS IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
AND THAT NUMBER OF SEATS IS PROPORTIONATE TO THE NUMBER OF INHABITANTS OF A STATE
THIS MAP IS PAINTED IN BLUE,
AND EVEN MORE IF THE COLOR THE BLUE-WHITE STATES BECOME BLUE
ONCE MORE THE OUTCOME OF THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
WE NOW MOVE FROM DATA AT THE LEVEL OF STATES
TO DATA AT THE LEVEL OF INDIVIDUALS
INDIVIDUAL DATA OFTEN ALLOW FOR STRONGER TESTS OF
HYPOTHESES
WE LATER WIL STUDT DATA ON COUNTIES, A LEVEL IN BETWEEN
STATES AND INDIVIDUALS
YOU AS A YOUNG PERSON WILL LIKE THE NEXT GRAPH
THE GRAPH IS TAKEN FROM THE DUTCH NEWSPAPER
NRC-HANDELSBLAD:
ACCORDING TO EXIT POLLS YOUNG PERSONS WERE THE MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR
OBAMA
BUT DO YOU AS A WHITE PERSON
LIKE THE NEXT GRAPH?
WHITES IN 2008 WERE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A WHITE REPUBLICAN THAN FOR A
BLACK DEMOCRAT
YET, THE NEXT CLIPPING FROM THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE SAYS THAT
THE USA IN THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS JUMPED ITS LONG-STANDING
COLOR LINE
SO, DID THAT COUNTRY, REALLY?
BACK TO THE DID-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION:
GIVEN THE NRC-HANDELSBLAD GRAPH,
COMPUTE THE BLACK/WHITE DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN ODDS RATIO
DOES THIS STATISTIC TELL ENOUGH ABOUT SURMOUNTING THE RACIAL BARRIER IN US
POLITICS?
NO, THAT DEPENDS UPON THE VALUE OF THIS ODDS RATIO IN THE 2004
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
COMPUTE THIS ODDS RATIO GIVEN THE FOLLOWING FOUR GRAPHS FOR 2008,
2004, 1992 and 1980
THE DATA WERE TAKEN FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE NEW YORK TIMES AND
THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE SINCE RECENTLY CALLED THE GLOBAL
EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES
The n’s for computing percentages for race are 74, 13, 9 and 2, and those for religion 52%, 27, 2 and 40
THE BLACK/WHITE
DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN
ODDS RATIO
FOR 2008
IS 30.4
The n’s for computing percentages for race are 77, 11, 8 and 2, and those for religion 54, 27, 3 and 42
THE BLACK/WHITE
DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN
ODDS RATIO
FOR 2004
IS 11.3
The n’s for computing percentages for race are 87, 8, 2 and 1, and those for religion 56%, 21, 4 and 22
THE BLACK/WHITE
DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN
ODDS RATIO
FOR 1992
IS 8.5
The n’s for computing percentages for race are 89, 11, 2 and not avialable, and those for religion 51%, 27, 5 and not available
THE BLACK/WHITE
DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN
ODDS RATIO
FOR 1980
IS 12.0
IF THE ODDS RATIO IS A GOOD MEASURE
FOR THE BLACK/WHITE POLITICAL RIFT
THAT RIFT INCREASED IN THE SHORT RUN
AND IN MEDIUM TERM ONE
AND IN THE LONG RUN
OF COURSE
UPON CLOSER INSPECTION
THE 2008 INCREASE IS THERE
BECAUSE IN 2008 THE ODDS FOR BLACKS TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT
INCREASED MORE THAN THESE ODDS FOR WHITES
BUT DID THE ODDS FOR CERTAIN WHITES TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRATIC
CANDIDATE PERHAPS DECREASE?
TOM-JAN MEEUS AND DIRK VLASBLOM OF NRC-HANDELSBLAD IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS
MENTIONED THE BRADLEY EFFECT
IN POLLS CERTAIN WHITES SAY THEY ARE GOING TO VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE
BUT WHEN CASTING THEIR VOTE
WHITES VOTE FOR A WHITE CANDIDATE
THE LEAD OF OBAMA IN THE POLLS WAS A BIT LARGER THAN HIS LEAD IN THE ACTUAL
ELECTION OUTCOME
ACTUAL OUTCOME: 52 VERSUS 46 PERCENT POLLS: A DIFFERENCE OF 8 PERCENT
BUT THAT IS A WEAK TEST OF THE
BRADLEY EFFECT
AND THE ALL-IMPORTANT QUESTION REMAINS UNANSWERED:
ARE WHITE PERSONS LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A BLACK THAN FOR A WHITE CANDIDATE ?
WHERE IN THE USA
MIGHT THE WHITE PERSONS LIVE
WHO ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE
FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE ?
WHICH STATES OF THE USA
WERE THE LAST ONES TO DO AWAY WITH RACIAL LAWS?
TO WHICH STATES DID THE BILLY- HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS APPLY MOST STRONGLY?
WE ENCOUNTERED THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS IN THE FIRST BACHELOR YEAR DURING THE COURSE
SOCIOLOGY’S MAIN QUESTIONS
IT ALSO FEAUTURES IN THE CLIPPING WE NOW REREAD
PINPOINT THE PERTINENT PHRASE !
THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS INVOKES
THE STRANGE FRUITS HANGING FROM SOUTHERN TREES
MOST AFRO-AMERICANS (BLACKS, NEGROES, COLOURED PEOPLE)
SINCE THE FOUNDING OF THE UNITED STATES WERE LEGALLY SLAVES
AFTER THE CIVIL WAR AND THE LEGAL ABOLITION OF SLAVERY
THE DISADVANTAGED POSITION OF BLACKS WAS MAINTAINED BY VARIOUS OTHER NEW
RACIAL LAWS
AND BY THE DENIAL OF DUE PROCESS IN COURT BY MOB LYNCHING
THE LAST RACIAL LAWS WERE SCRAPPED IN THE 1960s,
THE PERIOD OF THE CIVIL RIGHTS MOVEMENT
SO, THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS APPLIES MOST STRONGLY TO
THE SOUTHERN STATES OF THE USA
THE STATES WHICH LOST THE CIVIL WAR OF THE EARLY 1860s
THE SOUTHERN STATES ARE THE ONES THAT LOST THE 1861-1865 CIVIL WAR IN THE UNITED STATES
THEY WERE CALLED CONFEDERATE STATES AND THEY ARE NAMED:
ALABAMA, ARKANSAS, FLORIDA, GEORGIA, MISSISSIPPI, NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA,
TEXAS, VIRGINIA
ALL THESE STATES HAD LAWS ALLOWING SLAVERY
THE STATES THAT ALLOWED SLAVERY BUT STAYED WITHIN THE UNION DURING THE CIVIL WAR WERE:
DELAWARE , KENTUCKY , MARYLAND , MISSOURI , WEST VIRGINIA
FROM THE TIMES ATLAS OF WORLD HISTORY 1979
DIGRESSION
TO WHAT EXTENT DID LYNCHING OCCUR IN THE UNITED STATES
AND WHERE DID IT OCCUR WITH THE HIGHEST RELATIVE FREQUENCY ?
Two slides from
Franklin E. Zimring
The contradictions of American Capital Punishment
Oxford, Oxford University Press
Pages 90 and 91
NOW WE ARE GOING TO TEST
THE HYPOTHESIS THAT WHITE PERSONS IN THE SOUTH
ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE
FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE
TO DO THIS, WE NOW TAKE
NEITHER STATES NOR INDIVIDUALS
AS THE UNITS OF ANALYSIS
BUT COUNTIES WITHIN STATES
AND WE STUDY THE CHANGES IN ELECTORAL OUTCOMES OF COUNTIES
BETWEEN 2004 AND 2008
THESE CHANGES FOR COUNTIES ARE SURPRISINGLY INFORMATIVE
THE COUNTIES WHERE, IN OPPOSITION TO THE TREND TOWARDS A HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF DEMOCRATIC VOTES IN ALL STATES OF THE USA TAKEN
TOGETHER,
THE REPUBLICAN VOTE INCREASED
ARE TO BE FOUND IN THE SOUTH OF THE USA
THE FOLLOWING CLIPPINGS ARE FROM THE IHT PRINT EDITION
THIS STATEMENT APPEARED NOT IN THE IHT OF NOVEMBER 6, BUT THE ISSUE OF NOVEMBER 7
THE PREVIOUS MAPS ARE A BIT MISLEADING
THEY PORTRAY BOTTOM AND CEILING EFFECTS
IT IS NOT WISE TO COMPUTE DIFFERENCE SCORES:
THE REPUBLICAN VOTE INCREASED WITH XX PERCENT ETC
A STRONG INCREASE OF PERCENTAGES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
IF THE FIRST PERCENTAGE ALREADY IS HIGH
WHAT SHOULD BE DONE INSTEAD :
REGRESS FOR COUNTIES
THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC VOTE ON
THE 2004 DEMOCRATIC VOTE
AND DO SO
SEPERATELY FOR COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH
AND COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE SOUTH
BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE PRESENT MEETING
ANOTHER TEST OF THE HYPOTHESIS THAT WHITE
PERSONS ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A BLACK
CANDIDATE
REGRESSES FOR STATES
THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC VOTE
ON THE 2004 DEMOCRATIC VOTE
STIJN RUITER MADE THE NEXT GRAPH
IN THE SCATTERGRAM MOST SOUTHERN STATES ARE BELOW THE REGRESSION LINE: