THE BLACK FOREST STORM OF 15 THE BLACK FOREST STORM OF 15 JULY 2007: NUMERICAL JULY 2007: NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND SENSITIVITY SIMULATION AND SENSITIVITY STUDIES STUDIES Evelyne Richard Evelyne Richard 1 1 , Jean-Pierre , Jean-Pierre Chaboureau Chaboureau 1 Cyrille Flamant Cyrille Flamant 2 and Cédric and Cédric Champollion Champollion 3 3 1. Laboratoire d’Aérologie, CNRS/UPS Toulouse, France 1. Laboratoire d’Aérologie, CNRS/UPS Toulouse, France 2. LATMOS/IPSL, CRNS/UPMC, Paris, France 2. LATMOS/IPSL, CRNS/UPMC, Paris, France 3. Géosciences, Montpellier, France
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THE BLACK FOREST STORM OF 15 JULY 2007: NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND SENSITIVITY STUDIES Evelyne Richard 1, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau 1 Cyrille Flamant 2 and.
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THE BLACK FOREST STORM OF THE BLACK FOREST STORM OF 15 JULY 2007: NUMERICAL 15 JULY 2007: NUMERICAL
SIMULATION AND SENSITIVITY SIMULATION AND SENSITIVITY STUDIESSTUDIES
THE BLACK FOREST STORM OF THE BLACK FOREST STORM OF 15 JULY 2007: NUMERICAL 15 JULY 2007: NUMERICAL
SIMULATION AND SENSITIVITY SIMULATION AND SENSITIVITY STUDIESSTUDIES
The real time Meso-NH forecast of this event was The real time Meso-NH forecast of this event was surprisingly good … but surprisingly good … but
■ Is this good forecast obtained for the good reasons?Is this good forecast obtained for the good reasons?■ What makes the ARPEGE based forecast different? What makes the ARPEGE based forecast different?
3 domains (32, 8, and 2 km) with 2-way interaction. 30h forecast starting at 00 UTC from ECMWF analysis Mixed phase microphysics (including hail particles) No convection parameterization in the 2km-mesh model
16/07 06UTC16/07 06UTC
MNH-MNH-ECMECM
12UTC12UTC15/07 00UTC
MNH-MNH-ARPARP
MNH-ECMMNH-ECM Run starting from the ECMWF analysis and forced with ECMWF forecasts
MNH-ARPMNH-ARP: Run starting from the ARPEGE analysis and forced with ARPEGE forecasts