1 Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved. THE BIG PICTURE ON FLOOD MODELING Questions and Answers June 25, 2015 1 Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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1Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
THE BIG PICTURE ON FLOOD MODELINGQuestions and Answers
June 25, 2015
1Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
WHAT TYPES OF FLOOD CAN BE MODELED?
HOW IS DAMAGE ESTIMATED?
WHY PRECIPITATION?WHAT EXPOSURE CHARACTERISTICS
IMPACT FLOOD RISK?
WHAT DATA IS IMPORTANT?WHAT DOES HD MEAN FOR
FLOOD MODELING?
WHAT ABOUT FLOOD DEFENSES?WHAT IS YOUR FLOOD PRODUCTS
ROADMAP AND COVERAGE?
3Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
MEET THE EXPERTS
Laurent Marescot
Europe Model Product Strategy
Ludovico Nicotina
Europe Flood Model Development
Navin Peiris
Global Vulnerability Model Development
Rajkiran Vojjala
Climate Vulnerability Model Development
Falk Niehorster
Global Model Product Strategy
Maurizio Savina
Europe Flood Model Product Management
4Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
WHAT TYPES OF FLOOD CAN BE MODELED?
HOW IS DAMAGE ESTIMATED?
WHY PRECIPITATION?WHAT EXPOSURE CHARACTERISTICS
IMPACT FLOOD RISK?
WHAT DATA IS IMPORTANT?WHAT DOES HD MEAN FOR
FLOOD MODELING?
WHAT ABOUT FLOOD DEFENSES?WHAT IS YOUR FLOOD PRODUCTS
ROADMAP AND COVERAGE?
WHAT TYPES OF FLOOD CAN BE MODELED?
5Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
Inland flood
• Precipitation based -
all sources
• Hydrological
modeling
• On- and off-floodplain
Storm surge
• Model surge through
entire storm life cycle
• Physical numerical
approach
Tsunami
• Subduction-zone
induced events
• Entire tsunami life
cycle modeled
• Near- and far-field
6Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
WHAT TYPES OF FLOOD CAN BE MODELED?
HOW IS DAMAGE ESTIMATED?
WHY PRECIPITATION?WHAT EXPOSURE CHARACTERISTICS
IMPACT FLOOD RISK?
WHAT DATA IS IMPORTANT?WHAT DOES HD MEAN FOR
FLOOD MODELING?
WHAT ABOUT FLOOD DEFENSES?WHAT IS YOUR FLOOD PRODUCTS
ROADMAP AND COVERAGE?
WHY IS IT NECESSARY TO SIMULATE PRECIPITATION?
7Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
Model based on longer and higher-quality data (rainfall vs. discharge)
Continuous simulation captures soil wetness conditions prior to flood events
Capture correlations in space and time
ADVANTAGES OF MODELING PRECIPITATION
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RAIN, FLOW AND LOSS CORRELATIONRAIN FLOW
LOSS
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WHAT TYPES OF FLOOD CAN BE MODELED?
HOW IS DAMAGE ESTIMATED?
WHY PRECIPITATION?WHAT EXPOSURE CHARACTERISTICS
IMPACT FLOOD RISK?
WHAT DATA IS IMPORTANT?WHAT DOES HD MEAN FOR
FLOOD MODELING?
WHAT ABOUT FLOOD DEFENSES?WHAT IS YOUR FLOOD PRODUCTS
ROADMAP AND COVERAGE?
WHAT DATA IS IMPORTANT?
10Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
5m DTM, LIDAR
TOPOGRAPHIC DATA
Non-filtered airborne-derived DTM example
Ghent, Belgium
50m DTM, Ground-truthed
High Resolution ≠ Higher Accuracy
High-resolution is sometimes misleading
Resampling coarse data to higher resolution is easy, but does not improve accuracy
11Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc..
RIVER GAUGE DATA
• Daily data is vitally important – peaks
• Broad spatial coverage over as long a period as possible
• Used for calibration of models
12Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
WHAT TYPES OF FLOOD CAN BE MODELED?
HOW IS DAMAGE ESTIMATED?
WHY PRECIPITATION?WHAT EXPOSURE CHARACTERISTICS
IMPACT FLOOD RISK?
WHAT DATA IS IMPORTANT?WHAT DOES HD MEAN FOR
FLOOD MODELING?
WHAT ABOUT FLOOD DEFENSES?WHAT IS YOUR FLOOD PRODUCTS
ROADMAP AND COVERAGE?
WHAT ABOUT FLOOD DEFENSES?
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Collect Data Represent Potential Failure
Estimate Design Standard (SoP)
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• Coverage is more varied
• Requires different approach
• Location specific defense definition is important
COASTAL DEFENSES
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WHAT TYPES OF FLOOD CAN BE MODELED?
HOW IS DAMAGE ESTIMATED?
WHY PRECIPITATION?WHAT EXPOSURE CHARACTERISTICS
IMPACT FLOOD RISK?
WHAT DATA IS IMPORTANT?WHAT DOES HD MEAN FOR
FLOOD MODELING?
WHAT ABOUT FLOOD DEFENSES?WHAT IS YOUR FLOOD PRODUCTS
ROADMAP AND COVERAGE?
HOW IS DAMAGE ESTIMATED?
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MODES OF FLOOD DAMAGE
STRUCTURAL
SUPERFICIAL / INTERNAL
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LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING AT SUBJECT AT RISK
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FLOOD DAMAGE – ANALYTICAL MODELING
• Engineering-based approach to estimate flood damage
• Granular risk differentiation by location-specific attributes
• Enhanced treatment of damage and elevation uncertainty
Source: RMS
19Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
WHAT TYPES OF FLOOD CAN BE MODELED?
HOW IS DAMAGE ESTIMATED?
WHY PRECIPITATION?WHAT EXPOSURE CHARACTERISTICS
IMPACT FLOOD RISK?
WHAT DATA IS IMPORTANT?WHAT DOES HD MEAN FOR
FLOOD MODELING?
WHAT ABOUT FLOOD DEFENSES?WHAT IS YOUR FLOOD PRODUCTS
ROADMAP AND COVERAGE?
WHAT EXPOSURE CHARACTERISTICS IMPACT
FLOOD RISK?
20Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
VERTICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO CONSIDER
Building Elevation Exposure Distribution
Elevation Variabilityh
Ground-floor Elevation
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Unfinished
IMPORTANCE OF DEFINING BASEMENTS:LESSONS FROM SANDY
Basement Flooding and Resultant BI in Manhattan
Source: RMS Field Recon
Basement Damage Varies by Occupancy - Logic Tree Approach
Finished
Basement Value
Restaurant Special Storage Parking MEP
22Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
WHAT TYPES OF FLOOD CAN BE MODELED?
HOW IS DAMAGE ESTIMATED?
WHY PRECIPITATION?WHAT EXPOSURE CHARACTERISTICS
IMPACT FLOOD RISK?
WHAT DATA IS IMPORTANT?WHAT DOES HD MEAN FOR
FLOOD MODELING?
WHAT ABOUT FLOOD DEFENSES?WHAT IS YOUR FLOOD PRODUCTS
ROADMAP AND COVERAGE?
WHAT DOES HD MEAN FOR FLOOD MODELING?
23Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
ADVANTAGES OF HIGH-DEFINITION MODELS
Ground-upSimulation
TemporalSimulation
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• High resolution peril requires high resolution data
• What to do when detailed data is not available?
• Sophisticated disaggregation techniques offer one solution
AGGREGATE DATA
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Flood Event 1 Flood Event 3Flood Event 2
TEMPORAL SIMULATION: SOLVING FOR HOURS CLAUSE
RiskLink Models: Flood events hard-wired, one month long, and based on the IED
High-Definition Models:Simulation contains physical master events; actual loss events dynamically defined by applying the hours-clause to portfolio and maximizing cedant losses
Jan Feb Mar Apr
Loss Event 1Loss Event 3
Loss Event 2
26Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
WHAT TYPES OF FLOOD CAN BE MODELED?
HOW IS DAMAGE ESTIMATED?
WHY PRECIPITATION?WHAT EXPOSURE CHARACTERISTICS
IMPACT FLOOD RISK?
WHAT DATA IS IMPORTANT?WHAT DOES HD MEAN FOR
FLOOD MODELING?
WHAT ABOUT FLOOD DEFENSES?WHAT IS YOUR FLOOD PRODUCTS
ROADMAP AND COVERAGE?
WHAT IS YOUR FLOOD PRODUCTS ROADMAP AND
COVERAGE?
27Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
Current RMS Flood Products
28Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
Current RMS Flood Products Phase I
HD Europe Flood
Model and Maps
Taiwan Flood Maps
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Current RMS Flood Products Phase I Phase II
U.S. Flood Maps
Thailand Flood Maps
HD Japan Typhoon
Model
HD New Zealand
Earthquake and
Tsunami Model
30Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
Current RMS Flood Products Phase I Phase II Phase III
HD U.S. Inland Flood Model Indonesia
Flood Maps
HD TWTY and SKTY
HD Japan Earthquake
and Tsunami
Model
HD North America
Earthquake and
Tsunami Model
31Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
WHAT TYPES OF FLOOD CAN BE MODELED?
HOW IS DAMAGE ESTIMATED?
WHY PRECIPITATION?WHAT EXPOSURE CHARACTERISTICS
IMPACT FLOOD RISK?
WHAT DATA IS IMPORTANT?WHAT DOES HD MEAN FOR
FLOOD MODELING?
WHAT ABOUT FLOOD DEFENSES?WHAT IS YOUR FLOOD PRODUCTS
ROADMAP AND COVERAGE?
ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS?
32Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future..”
- Niels Bohr, Physicist
©2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. RMS and the RMS logo are registered trademarks of Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All other trademarks are property of their respective owners.
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