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PES: Europe12
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ThE Big DEBATE
‘Do you believe the European Commission should impose trade
duties on Chinese module manufacturers?’ Now there’s a
question. We put together this cross panel interview two weeks
before we went to press – just before the recent trade duties
announcement – and the answers we received were pleasingly
polarised. Find out what our interviewees thought later on in the
interview and soak-up their thoughts in this, perhaps our
biggest
and best-ever roundtable. Let battle commence!
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www.pessolar.com 13
Contributors
ROUNDTABLE
Dr ChriS JarDinESenior Researcher at Oxford University’s
Environmental Change Institute, Technical Director of Joju
Solar
GorDon WyliEMember of a UK Energy Policy Working Group, and
founder of the Free Green Electricity Corporation (FGEC)
Dr. hEnry SnaithLecturer in photovoltaics at Oxford University
and Founder and Chief Scientific Officer of Oxford
Photovoltaics
Dr. MiChaEl StEinFounder, Trillion Fund
riCharD FittonTechnical Manager at University of Salford’s
unique Energy Hub
StavroS taSSoSSolar Energy Leader, Mott MacDonald
PES: Welcome to the magazine. Before we head into the main
issues of the day, can you tell our readers a little about your
role, and how your organisation is involved in the solar
industry?
Chris Jardine: I’ve got two jobs really! My main role is as the
Technical Director of Joju Solar, a solar PV installation company,
covering the domestic, commercial and community sectors.
Additionally I’m also a Senior Researcher at the Environmental
Change Institute at the University of Oxford where I’ve looked at
PV and other microgeneration from technology, policy and economic
angles. So I’ve got a pretty unique view on the industry, from a
high level academic perspective to real on-the-ground issues.
Gordon Wylie: After more than 20 years working within large
organisations in the consulting engineering, management consultancy
and telecoms sectors, I wanted a new challenge as an
entrepreneur.
I decided to create a new company in the renewable energy sector
to help the environment and the wider society – I just needed a
vision! The seeds of this vision came to me when the Department of
Energy & Climate Change introduced Feed-In Tariffs (FITs) in
April 2010 to encourage investment in microgeneration of renewable
energy. This provided the opportunity for my new venture and I
began researching the sector. Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity
generation seemed to be the most attractive in the short term.
As a member of a UK Energy Policy Working Group from 2009 - 2011
I gained a number of key insights into the sector. This Working
Group (comprising Chartered Engineers with MBAs) was organised by
the Sainsbury Management Fellowship (www.
smf.org.uk) to influence UK Government energy policy to meet
both energy security and climate change targets.
Recently I have been working within a global consulting network
which has enabled me to develop a number of useful business
contacts. I realised that I needed a business partner with
complementary skills to create a successful business and through
this network I have established a working relationship with a
Chartered Accountant who has a wide range of commercial experience
as a Finance Director. We have worked together on strategic
planning, fund raising and profit improvement assignments across a
range of sectors including renewable energy.
In August 2010 we set up the Free Green Electricity Corporation
(FGEC). Our company installs free solar PV systems on the roofs of
commercial and residential properties to generate electricity to be
used by the property occupiers. FGEC delivers a return to its
investors by collecting the index-linked, Government-regulated
revenues from the ‘Big 6’ UK electricity suppliers for all of the
electricity generated by our PV systems.
henry Snaith: I am CSO and founder of Oxford Photovoltaics Ltd
(Oxford PV), a new technology company scaling up the processing and
manufacture of solid-state printable solar cells for the building
integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) market. BIPV is when photovoltaic
solar cells are used directly as the cladding of a building, as
opposed to being bolted onto the existing framework. By integrating
the photovoltaics into the building construction, vastly enhanced
aesthetics are possible, in addition to reduction in costs
associated with frames and supports. Oxford PV aims
to commercialise a game changing technology which will
eventually result in all, or at least most, glass cladding in
buildings being photovoltaic.
richard Fitton: I’m the Energy Hub technical manager; I have the
responsibility for the day-to-day management and co-ordination of
the University of Salford’s unique energy research and testing
facilities. The University of Salford has an international
reputation for undertaking world-class research into the energy and
low carbon sector and has developed significant testing and
analysis facilities, including the Salford Energy House and our
newly opened solar research and prototyping facility.
Our research facilities are used by world leading academics and
researches to work collaboratively with industry, from small
start-ups through to multi-national organisations. For example:
Our recently refurbished Wolfson Chemical Vapour Deposition
(CVD) Laboratory, which has been funded by a £250,000 Wolfson
Foundation Grant from the Royal Society. These new labs will allow
our leading academics and researchers to develop and test the
depositing of thin coatings onto glass that can reduce heat loss
from windows or improve solar cell efficiencies.
The world’s first fully functioning test house within an
environmentally controllable chamber, which has part-funded by a
European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) grant. The unique Energy
House, allows our academics and researchers to work collaboratively
with industry to test and develop new and innovate solutions,
products and technologies to improve the energy efficiency of
existing properties.
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PES: Europe14
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To complement these facilities, and to support the next step on
a low carbon transition, is our newly opened solar prototyping and
testing facility. Equipped with industry standard solar PV
manufacturing equipment, the facility will give businesses in the
region a space where they can test new designs, configurations and
installation methods for solar panels.
Stavros tassos: I’m Mott MacDonald’s Solar Energy Leader, a role
which covers both PV and CSP, and we assist clients in either the
Owner’s or Lender’s Engineer role for utility-scale projects across
the world. We also advise governments on renewable energy policy
and the design and implementation of incentive programmes.
As a multidisciplinary consultancy Mott MacDonald advises on all
aspects of projects, including development, technical, commercial,
environmental and social, and has advised on more than 4GW of solar
projects globally. We typically undertake feasibility studies and
energy yield assessments, procurement support and contract
negotiations, site supervision and construction monitoring,
operations monitoring, technology bankability assessments, due
diligence exercises for lenders and investors, amongst others.
PES: When we talked to our roundtable interviewees at the end of
last year, they were cautiously optimistic about the prospects for
2013. We’re almost halfway through the year; do you share their
optimism?
Chris Jardine: Yes, cautiously optimistic is about right still.
We’re seeing the signs of recovery after last year’s policy
interventions in terms of market activity but still a long way to
go before the industry is thriving not surviving. The big news this
year is the take-off of solar fields in the UK, which opens up
exciting new opportunities.
henry Snaith: The PV industry is still in a state of flux, but
with that massive opportunity exists. With the continuous drop in
price of crystalline Silicon PV from China, it is apparent that any
new ‘emerging’ PV technology must either deliver something
dramatically different to
c-Si, or compete very closely on efficiency. The technology
being developed by Oxford PV has the potential to do both.
Michael Stein: We most definitely share their optimism. The
April 2012 McKinsey report of solar PV (Dark Before the Dawn)
showed a remarkable reduction in the cost of installed solar PV
(below $1/W) and already it looks like they were too cautious with
actual costs being lower than expected, blowing through their most
optimistic prediction. And even with their cautious figures, they
estimated a trillion dollars of investment into solar PV over the
next 10 years.
richard Fitton: Yes, we agree with their caution, however we
feel that the launch of the Government’s Green Deal has started to
rejuvenate the market for domestic solar PV, and consumer interest
in energy efficiency and renewables. Coupled with the ever rising
fuel bills, more and more people consumers are looking at ways in
which they can reduce their bills.
The uncertainty about the FITs has now gone and there is clear
direction and policy around any future changes, and with this
stability more and more investors are starting to reinvest in solar
schemes. Coupled with the continuing reduction in manufacturing
costs and continued investment into innovation around improving
panel efficiencies and output, the sector is starting to see a
return on investment similar to two years ago.
Take-up is being monitored more clearly, and policy is now being
driven by small scale installation rather than solar farms, which
we feel will kick-start the domestic installation sector again.
Stavros tassos: There has indeed been widespread ‘cautious
optimism’ in the industry for some time; and as expected, there has
been a mixture of good and bad news in the solar energy sector in
the first half of the year. In CSP, we see a large number of
projects now going ahead, following a period of relative
stagnation. In PV, despite some notable exits from the market or
bankruptcies, we still see large projects going ahead as planned,
and not looking at country-specific markets –some of which may see
reduced growth in 2013-
but at the global market, there is currently little evidence to
suggest a slow-down.
PES: What is the single biggest obstacle facing your sector of
the industry right now? how would you propose removing it?
Chris Jardine: The biggest single obstacle remains a hangover
from the poorly handled tariff degressions of 2012. Whilst the
residential and commercial markets are slowly picking up, it is
proving very slow to regain market confidence. Sadly the media
messaging last year was “Government have slashed solar feed-in
tariffs, so solar doesn’t work anymore”. Whilst this isn’t true as
costs have come down as well, we’re just not seeing the levels of
good quality leads that we saw in 2011 and early 2012.
It’s a slow process to turn that round, people will need to see
solar going in on their neighbour’s house, and that might spark
interest. I think a solid statement from Government could have
helped regain market confidence, but perhaps a bit late now. In
terms of practical action now I’d like to see some feed-in tariffs
undergo a process of ‘anagression’.
Anagression is the opposite of degression – that is to say I’d
like to see tariffs have the flexibility to increase if target
installation levels are not met. In a market, it doesn’t make sense
to tie yourself into just downward movement in FiT levels.
Anagression is needed to correct a) errors in the initial setting
of tariff levels b) any increase in commodity prices (silicon,
steel, aluminium, glass etc) increasing component prices and c)
sudden shocks to the system such as those that may come from EU
import duties on Chinese panels.
Gordon Wylie: The lack of a consistent, holistic, strategic view
of UK energy policy from all parts of the coalition government. For
example, the Treasury has given the impression that it favours the
lowest cost source of energy available in the short term whereas
DECC (Department of Energy & Climate Change) is focused on a
sustainable, cost-effective solution over the longer term. This
inter-governmental tension has created significant uncertainties
for consumers, suppliers and investors throughout the energy
sector.
The creation of an effective energy policy has also been
inhibited by single issue-lobbying by groups representing each
source of energy and also by the views of the large fossil fuel
producers, and the ‘Big 6’ energy generators and suppliers
‘drowning out’ new ideas and developments. It is important for the
solar PV sector to recognise that it is only one important part of
a multi-faceted sustainable energy solution for UK plc. Energy
supply should not be seen as a ‘zero sum’ game (where one form of
energy can only succeed at the expense of one or more alternative
forms) for
“This inter-governmental tension has created significant
uncertainties for consumers, suppliers and investors
throughout the energy sector” Gordon Wylie
Member of a UK Energy Policy Working Group, and founder of the
Free Green Electricity Corporation (FGEC)
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1963-2013
Y E A R S
www.spitzenberger.de
POWER AMPLIFIERAUTOMOTIVEPHOTOVOLTAIC EMC TESTING
Photovoltaic SimulatorsTesting of solar inverters
according to EN 50530
2-/4-Quadrant AmplifiersTesting of drive systems /
battery simulations
AC/DC 4-Quadrant AmplifiersCurrent and voltage sources /
power system simulation
Basic EMC SystemFully compliant emission
and immunity tests
V:0...950V / I:0...1250AP:0...400kW / t transient:
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PES: Europe16
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the market participants since UK plc’s success will create
energy growth opportunities as manufacturing becomes more automated
with an increased energy intensity. UK plc will be successful in
the longer term if it has a sustainable energy mix which is cost-
effective, secure and environmentally friendly.
It is widely recognised that the UK is facing an ‘energy gap’
over the next few years during which energy demand is expected to
exceed supply. There is a serious risk of both power cuts and rapid
tariff increases during this time period unless a more strategic
energy policy is implemented very soon. This policy needs to:
(a) Increase energy efficiency by helping domestic and
commercial consumers to reduce demand without affecting GDP growth.
By installing smart meters it will be possible to introduce
time-of-day and time-of-week tariffs to incentivise users to draw
electricity at times when regional /national demand is low. This
will enable demand to be ‘smoothed’ throughout each day and week.
Consequently, this will reduce the demand peaks on the national
grid. Differential tariffs will also encourage the development of
energy storage solutions for users at the building (using e.g.
batteries) and community /regional (using e.g. hydroelectric, wood
pellet manufacturing and storage) levels;
(b) Forecast energy demand as comprehensively and accurately as
possible for the whole of the UK. These forecasts need to cover
time of day, day of week and holiday /monthly /seasonal
variations;
(c) Determine the optimal mix of sources of energy supply to
satisfy the forecast demand during both the short and medium terms
in a sustainable, cost-effective manner whilst minimising
environmental damage. This will require the necessary use of the
least-polluting forms of fossil fuel-powered generation to
complement renewable sources;
(d) Developing a smart grid to enable the peaks in demand to be
smoothed as far as possible and also invest in electricity and gas
storage facilities;
(e) Incentivise the use of renewable energy and the
least-polluting fossil fuels for energy generation. Over time the
proportion of renewable energy in the mix can be increased without
impacting GDP growth; and
(f) Reduce the UK’s dependency upon other countries for its
energy supplies. In the short term, shale gas and new nuclear power
stations will not be able to contribute to closing the energy gap.
In both cases, there are significant environmental, and health and
safety issues to be addressed. Shale gas extraction has raised some
concerns about the potential risks of earthquakes and of
groundwater
contamination by the chemicals used in the extraction process.
In the case of nuclear power, there are many unanswered questions
including the safe storage of waste which will be radioactive for
hundreds of years, the uncertain and increasing cost of new nuclear
power stations, and the security of radioactive material in the
face of a sophisticated and global terrorist threat.
There are many forms of renewable energy which are currently at
different stages of development. Wind and solar power are both well
developed and certain in terms of cost, but uncertain in terms of
weather dependency. Other forms of renewable energy (e.g. tidal,
geothermal) are predictable in terms of power generation, but
uncertain in terms of cost until further development work has been
completed. Some of these alternatives are hardly used in the UK at
present, but may create significant potential sources of energy
generation in the medium to long term. Overall the UK requires a
portfolio solution to its energy provision which will require it to
effectively manage and encourage existing supplies, new
installations and future developments of sustainable,
cost-effective solutions.
The vision for the UK could be to create ‘Smart, Sustainable
Communities’ (SSCs) in the future with:
• Microgeneration (solar PV, air and ground source heat pumps)
and storage (batteries) at the building level;
• Community energy generation (onshore wind, geothermal,
hydroelectric, anaerobic digestion, CHP powered by wood pellets)
and storage (hydroelectric, wood pellet manufacturing) combined
with district heating systems; and
• Regional /national energy generation (tidal, wave, offshore
wind, back-up gas) and storage (large scale hydroelectric,
gas).
The SSCs should be aiming to be self-sufficient and
self-contained in terms of water and energy supplies, high speed
broadband networks, recycling and waste and water disposal whilst
preserving biodiversity and encouraging local food production.
Transport within the SSCs could be on foot, bicycle and short range
electric carts.
The SSCs could be connected via ‘grids’ of transport links
(water, rail and roads), high speed broadband and back-up water and
electricity supplies from the regional /national grids. Deliveries
to and from the SSCs could be on regular container shipments to and
from SSC depots rather than to and from individual houses and
commercial buildings.
UK plc has limited residual supplies of economically-extractable
fossil fuels. However, as an island (surrounded by tidal, wave and
offshore wind energy) with a large, highly skilled work force it
has all of the ‘ingredients’ required to be successful in the
global, renewable energy sector.
henry Snaith: Representing an early stage technology start-up,
the obstacle is one of raising sufficient external investment to
make the transition from concept to product in a suitably fast
time. The UK has a tremendous opportunity to create a new PV
technology that can compete directly with existing thin film and
silicon. Assistance, in the form of grants both at the research
level and at the pilot production scale, and creating a favourable
environment for investment is crucial. The opportunity to inject
funds into research and create a near future PV manufacturing
industry is not fully appreciated by all the funding bodies.
Michael Stein: The biggest issue for crowd-investing into solar
parks is the regulatory hurdle that makes use of innovative
marketing and social media very limiting. The underlying reasons
for that are good and should apply to any major investment you
might be considering, but for very small investments (e.g. often
below £100 in the case of crowd-investing) especially into a fixed
infrastructure project like a solar park, it seems a bit over the
top.
Firstly, a crowd-investing platform must be regulated (or must
persuade a regulated firm to take you under their wing), and of
course, all communications must be fair clear and not misleading -
those are both important and fair enough. But all the risk warnings
can make it sound and look much more complicated than buying a
house or a car and it shouldn’t be, especially for a £100
investment.
richard Fitton: Our main focus is currently on supporting
innovation in the
“Assistance, in the form of grants both at the research level
and at the pilot
production scale, and creating a favourable environment for
investment is crucial”
Dr. henry Snaith lecturer in photovoltaics at oxford
University
and Founder and Chief Scientific officer of oxford
Photovoltaics
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development of new solar panel technology, and as such, the
reduction in the feed-in-tariffs and subsequent lowering of demand,
has meant that companies are no longer willing to invest in
R&D. However, thanks to funding, including a ERDF grant, we
have money to support local SMEs in the development and prototyping
of such technologies and innovations.
Investment is one obstacle, but by far the greatest obstacle is
public perception of solar PV, this is due to several reasons, but
the more common ones are:
• Price and return on investment. Although the price of the
panels themselves continues to fall, installation costs have not
fallen at the same rate, and coupled with the reduction in the
FITs, they aren’t currently seen as a viable option. They aren’t
seen as desirable, due to their current appearance. However it’s
envisaged that research and collaborations in the development of
new and more efficient solutions, which will result in a reduced
payback period. Coupled with new designs, these are increasing the
market take-up of solar PV.
There is also now a public and consumer demand driven by
confidence in the feed in tariff rates being offered.
PES: as the global solar Pv market surges towards the 100GW
milestone, does it enjoy the same profile as wind energy, say? if
not, what could be done to improve this?
Chris Jardine: I don’t think it does enjoy the same profile, but
I’m quite happy with that. Wind has a high profile partly because
they are media-genic mega-structures, and partly because of
contentiousness around visual impact and planning. Solar PV is
constantly rated the No1 desired energy technology and doesn’t
suffer from the same public image issues. For me high profile =
contentious = longer riskier more expensive projects, so I’m
perfectly happy for PV to slip under the radar!
Gordon Wylie: Solar PV does not enjoy the same profile as, for
example, wind, nuclear and shale gas electricity generation. It
seems that the other sectors have more effective lobbyists who have
been able to focus the overall public perception in each case on
the positive rather than the negative aspects of a specific form of
energy production. By contrast, solar PV has a very low profile in
the public arena since it currently does not have any significant
impact (except for ground-mounted systems) on either the
environment or on its potential to help to close the energy gap.
Consequently, solar PV has attracted very little discussion in the
UK.
henry Snaith: PV has the potential to be the primary source of
energy across the
world. It is arguable that with a suitable electricity storage
system, PV could produce more than 90% of the global energy demand.
This is certainly not appreciated in 2020 and 2050 energy
generation predictions. Education of policy makers about the
feasibility of PV, both domestically and as an export industry has
to be conveyed effectively. For this to happen, a critical
projection of future cost of existing and emerging PV is
required.
Michael Stein: The industry needs to do something innovative
like fund an open-source ‘counter’ that shows how much solar power
is being installed on a weekly basis across the world, and have an
‘Olympics’ for countries solar installation rate - adjusted for
insolation (like a gold handicap). A major prize could be awarded
in each country to one householder and one business for being the
‘10,000th’ person and/ or business to install a solar system. That
would get in the press.
Stavros tassos: It doesn’t. Despite PV’s phenomenal growth with
the 100GW milestone already surpassed, installed wind capacity is
still around three times higher, while in terms of utility-scale
plants wind has been around for a lot longer.
Windfarms have provided the emblem for the renewables industry
for decades now, including at a time when the wider public only
associated photovoltaics with either satellites or pocket
calculators. Wind Turbine Generators are of course
impressive-looking structures, both because of the tower height and
rotating blades - it is far easier to miss a 100MW PV plant just
round the corner, than a 1MW wind turbine a few kilometres away.
This can at the same time be seen as an advantage of PV plants as
they have minimal visual impact, amongst an overall minimal
environmental impact profile, making them less susceptible to local
community opposition.
With an ever increasing share of global electricity supply,
public perception of PV not being on a par with other renewable
energy technologies as a serious contributor to the electricity mix
will inevitably change.
PES: Do you believe the European Commission should impose trade
duties on Chinese module manufacturers?
Chris Jardine: I certainly don’t think the EU should just impose
duties on Chinese modules and think this will solve the problem. I
do understand the EU’s concerns, but feel they have been put under
pressure by European manufacturers looking to protect their market
share. The installation industry doesn’t have the same lobbying
power but its in the installer base where the effects will be felt.
Installation volumes are heavily dependent of returns available via
feed-in tariffs, and tariffs
GIES_Anz_Photon_Großanlagen_76x303_engl_drk.indd 1 13.05.13
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across Europe have been set on the basis of a market price that
Chinese manufactured panels can make attractive.
If you raise the price of Chinese panels, then the overall
market will reduce and installers will have to downsize. I think
the installer market could be kept stable and the products
installed swing back towards EU manufacturers, if a trade duty was
imposed and feed-in tariffs were raised across the EU. I can’t see
member states doing the latter, however…
When I first started looking at solar PV in the early 2000s
subsidising manufacturers so they could mass produce modules more
cheaply was seen as one of the key ways of developing solar PV
market. The Japanese did this alongside their early demonstration
programs and it could be argued was responsible for their strong
manufacturing position throughout the 2000s. So it seems a little
harsh to pick on the Chinese when they do the same in the 2010s
(although I will admit the market is in a different place now).
Gordon Wylie: No, since free trade is critical to encourage the
development and sharing of new ideas and technologies in the
renewable energy sector on a commercial basis. It is more important
for the PV system market to be effectively regulated to ensure that
the equipment used in the UK is fit-for-purpose over a long
economic system lifetime.
Michael Stein: Definitely not. Ricardo’s Law is the basis for
all trade in the world (and if you don’t know about Ricardo, it’s
well worth reading up on his ‘Law’). All that will happen is that
prices will rise and the amount of investment into solar will fall,
and if we impose duties on one product line why not others. Trade
barriers are exactly the opposite of what the global economy needs
right...now we need to remove trade barriers so as to get the
global economy going.
Stavros tassos: Trade wars are of course never conducive to
market growth. In the short term, such sanctions are likely to
result in the cancellation of projects in the EU and consequently
the further dampening of solar growth in Europe as well as job
losses; however, the magnitude and duration of any such negative
effects would be strongly dependent on the EC’s accompanying
measures and incentives for local industry. With Chinese module
manufacturers vertically integrating and looking to diversify their
markets, and on the basis of a number of Sunbelt country markets
rapidly emerging, China appears to be in a better position than
Europe should a PV trade war occur.
PES: Would you say that the industry has finally become a career
destination for school leavers – or are we still recruiting mature
employees from mature sectors?
Chris Jardine: I think the industry does have a high proportion
of younger employees, certainly at the project management/sales
level.
We’re seeing a lot of MSc level courses specialising in
renewable energy and these are churning out skilled new graduates.
In the boom time, this was fantastic. However now there are less
vacancies, and these are being competed over both by new graduates
and those with more experience who have unfortunately been laid off
over the last year. At the installation team level, we’re certainly
seeing new young roofers and electricians looking to get into solar
PV – for them being able to install PV is becoming an essential
skill to have, as much as being able to do slate work or wire a
bathroom.
Gordon Wylie: The industry is not yet a career destination for
school leavers. In the UK the energy sector still has a ‘blue
collar’ and low reward image which is not seen as attractive for
ambitious and enthusiastic school leavers. The renewable energy
sector offers a wide variety of challenging and rewarding roles and
is critical for the future success of UK plc. Engineers in the UK
still have a very low status in society compared with other
professions.
A successful renewable sector will require a very wide range of
skills and expertise including technician engineers, chartered
engineers, scientists, commercial, business development, legal,
finance, project management, product development. If UK plc is able
to create the business environment in order to encourage the
creation of successful multi-disciplinary teams to both develop and
commercially exploit all forms of renewable energy, then it will
provide the country with a significant comparative advantage in a
very competitive global marketplace.
Lord Sainsbury recognised this requirement 25 years ago for UK
plc and created the Sainsbury Management Fellowship to encourage
Chartered Engineers to develop their business skills by undertaking
MBAs at the leading business schools in the world. The Royal
Academy for Engineering has now created a career path for school
leavers to achieve both degree level engineering and Masters level
business qualifications, and chartered engineer status.
The numerous specialist engineering institutions have not helped
the situation by continuing to compete with each other. In my case,
I am a Chartered Engineer registered with the UK Engineering
Council, a European Engineer registered with FEANI (European
Federation of National Engineering Associations), a Member of the
Institution of Civil Engineers and a Member of the Institution of
Structural Engineers. Effective communication and lobbying is
almost impossible with such a large number of institutions with a
wide variety of special interests.
Renewable energy is a global sector in which the UK should aim
to take a leading position. If the UK was successful in this sector
relative to other countries, then it would improve UK energy
security, GDP growth, sustainable employment, exports and the
environment by reducing dependence upon fossil fuels which are
becoming increasingly costly and damaging to the global ecosystem
to extract.
henry Snaith: The number of post graduates doing PV research has
grown phenomenally over the last five years. This is illustrated by
looking at the number of global scientific publications in PV. In
the field of Organic Solar Cells alone (which is one specific
branch of a printable low cost emerging PV technology), there were
3,000 scientific publications in 2013, this compares to only 200 in
2004. These scientists need jobs and we must strive to realise a
vibrant PV technology industry.
Michael Stein: I gave a talk at the LSE yesterday and there was
a roomful of young and talented people all looking for careers in
renewable energy and sustainability. I have no doubt that many
would love to work for a solar company. Perhaps the industry
players – solar, wind, biomass et al. should come together to fund
focused career events at the big universities along the lines of
other big single companies.
richard Fitton: As a higher education institution we see that
many students are finishing their degree with an interest in the
low carbon sector, in subject areas spanning economics, physics,
the built environment and design. To increase the graduate
employability rates at the University of Salford we have
integrated
“The energy sector still has a ‘blue collar’ and low reward
image which is not
seen as attractive for ambitious and enthusiastic school
leavers”
Gordon Wylie Member of a UK Energy Policy Working Group, and
founder
of the Free Green Electricity Corporation (FGEC)
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low carbon and sustainability into the core curricula of
individual courses, and through the work of the Energy House and
associated facilities, support students with live industrial briefs
and work placements within the energy and low carbon sector.
To ensure that our graduates leave with the necessary skills to
work within the energy and low carbon sectors, we have industrial
panels that support academic colleagues in the development of new
courses and modules. Our close links with industry ensures that we
develop graduates with real-world focus, especially for fast and
growing markets like energy and low carbon.
PES: When the Feed-in tariff frenzy was at its height, few were
interested in how the Pv panels they installed actually looked. is
BiPv and aesthetics going to come into its own in the coming
years?
Chris Jardine: I’d love to see the aesthetics of solar PV being
given more consideration, but it seems unlikely to me. The problem
we’ve seen isn’t that installers are incapable of designing neat
attractive systems but rather that consumers are seeking to
maximise their generation and financial returns. So given a choice
between a nice neat eight panel array arranged 4x2, or a nine panel
array arranged 4x2 with an extra one stuck on a spare bit of roof
space, customers will tend to go for the latter option. That’s not
to say there aren’t installers out there who don’t try to just sell
as many panels as possible. But equally it would be hard for an
installer to sell a smaller system to a customer just because it
looks better.
The situation is even harder when looking at BIPV. Whilst module
costs have plummeted, the BIPV hasn’t taken off as much and so
economies of production have not applied in this niche. So BIPV now
looks very much less favourable in economic terms than it did even
for new build. I think you’d need to look at direct legislation to
mandate BIPV for new builds, or at least increasing the tariffs for
BIPV products so that they offer the same returns as retro-fitted
modules.
Gordon Wylie: Compared with other sources of electricity,
roof-mounted solar PV has a very low impact on the environment
since the panels are installed very close to the existing roof
lines. In the case of new build and /or re-roofing, BIPV is
cost-effective in many cases based upon existing technology.
In the case of retrofitting on a roof which is many years of
useful life remaining, then it is currently not cost-effective to
replace the existing roof covering with BIPV. However, thin film,
PV ‘carpet’ solutions on flat and low pitch roofs are already
cost-effective for certain retrofit situations.
henry Snaith: Widespread PV uptake is all about aesthetics.
People want to build and live in beautiful buildings, and there is
no need for a compromise. Our philosophy is to create photovoltaic
glass that is ultimately indistinguishable from existing glass
cladding. It will be impossible to tell from sight if the building
is made of solar cells or not.
Michael Stein: A big issue is to get the planners who look at
Grade 1-2 listed buildings to adjust their thinking. I think the
new black panels look great - they are sleek. Some councils are
very sensible. Even though I live in a conservation area, the
Camden council treats solar panels installed on a roof as a
permitted development (i.e. no planning permission required) within
clearly defined limits. I have a south facing roof so put in a low
profile array with no problem.
richard Fitton: At the solar research facility we are
investigating innovative methods of producing, not only
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PES: Europe20
ROUNDTABLE
modules with a high efficiency, but also panels that are
aesthetically pleasing to the consumer. This draws on many
different disciplines including design, engineering and physics. We
believe that aesthetics will play a huge part in the development of
solar PV over the coming years, with the development of both BIPV
and retro-fit solutions that are ‘easy on the eye’.
Stavros tassos: The magnitude of installed capacity in coming
years will remain on utility-scale plant rather than either BIPV or
even small-scale rooftop installations. It is however a fact that
there is huge untapped potential in both the rooftop segment of the
market and BIPV.
Specifically in BIPV there is evidence to suggest there is
increasing demand for applications with added aesthetic value and
there is wide expectation that some of this potential will start
getting realised in coming years. In contrast to where BIPV was a
few years ago, the advent of new technologies and products such as
semi-transparent and coloured modules and lower cost customised
designs and module forms is now enabling incorporation of PV in the
architectural design from the outset. While there is still a long
way to go, BIPV installations will see growth, keeping in mind that
the European market will play an increasing role, unlike in
utility-scale plant.
PES: Concern for the environment is no longer the prime driver
for Pv uptake. Would you agree with this statement?
Gordon Wylie: Yes, most building owners have been affected by
the economic downturn in recent years and have prioritised energy
cost savings and cost predictability over the medium to long term
ahead of environmental factors. However, carbon footprint benefits
are still an important consideration for nearly all of these
owners.
Chris Jardine: Yes, I’d agree this is true, and innovation
theory would suggest that you’d expect this to be the case. New
products are adopted first by classic innovators (interested in
technology) and early adopters (more altruistically motivated), so
the early days of PV were dominated by people with a fascination
for new technology or environmental concerns (or both). After this
products are adopted by the early mass market, who often have very
different motivations. For PV these are likely to be more
influenced by the economic benefits of PV, although there may be
other reasons (keeping up with the Joneses etc.). The cuts in
tariffs came at almost exactly the wrong time, as we were moving
from early adopters to mass market. Cutting tariffs and returns
just as the market moves to one that is more financially motivated
was always going to be particularly damaging.
henry Snaith: PV will ultimately deliver lower cost electricity
and non-centralised
electricity, in addition to being environmentally benign. Once
PV becomes cheaper than electricity from coal and gas fired power
stations, an acceleration in the uptake and scale up will occur.
This will in turn result in even further reductions in price
genuinely enhancing standard of living across the world. PV is
probably the only way to create a western standard of living in
developing countries within a suitably near term timeframe.
Michael Stein: No, I don’t agree because I think it would be a
real tipping point when people put in panels solely because of the
economics. That would be a great day and it is approaching fast.
And as regards quality, my panels are guaranteed for 25 years and
the installation for the lifetime of the roof. I can only see
competition driving higher specs rather than lower specs on the
build of the panels as well as the installations – domestic and
commercial. Look at other industries - remember the first mobile
phones...both the connection and the handsets where really awful
and calls dropped multiple time per day. Now I get upset if a call
drops once a week. So long as we maintain competition the panels
and their installation will get more and more efficient.
PES: Does research into Pv technology get enough funding?
Chris Jardine: I suppose it depends what you are trying to do.
The UK has always historically been stronger at research than
implementation and there’s ;lots of good science being done.
It could be argued that money should be aimed at subsidising
installation through feed-in tariffs as this has been effective at
reducing prices worldwide and bringing some parts of the world to
cost parity already.
You could certainly make the case for example that instead of
throwing money at nuclear fusion in the hope it can be perfected,
the same money aimed at wind and solar could already be delivering
us a substantially more renewable energy system than we have at
present.
Conversely, cell efficiencies are some way short of theoretical
maximum limits and if improvements could be delivered here whilst
maintaining costs we could see solar PV become the most economical
way of supplying electricity to a building by some distance.
Gordon Wylie: PV technology was originally developed over 50
years ago for the space programme and has been evolving gradually
since that ‘kick start’. The renewable energy generation incentives
provide the commercial drivers to continue to invest in further
technology developments.
Design /development competition funding could be used to ‘kick
start’ new, alternative
forms of renewable energy until they become commercially viable
with the more limited support of energy generation incentives. The
providers (public and /or private sector) of the development
competition funding could receive a share of the licensing revenue
from the new technologies.
henry Snaith: My biased opinion is absolutely not. The following
in my opinion are statements of fact: Photovoltaic solar energy
will become a major component in the power mix in the future. The
countries which develop and commercialise the winning
technology/technologies will benefit financially in a significant
way. How soon this occurs is in part a matter of scale and
sustained investment into research. The single word which
summarises the present situation is opportunity. It should not be
missed.
richard Fitton: Accessing money for research projects is
becoming more challenging; this has encouraged us and other
researchers to speculate for more innovative forms of funding, such
as working more closely with industry, and forming research
partnerships with other academic institutions.
However to ensure that this is successful, the needs of both the
academic institution and industry need to be aligned, with positive
outcomes for both parties. Here at Salford, we have a policy of
developing long-term relationships with industry from small
micro-SMEs, which allows us to jointly bid to research councils
both in the UK and Europe.
To support innovation and investment in R&D by the private
sector there needs to be incentives, whilst the Governments R&D
tax relief is available; there should be more incentives for
R&D into the energy, and low carbon sectors, those that are
contributing to the Government’s ambitious Carbon reduction
targets. Without the investment and funding to support
collaborative R&D between universities and the private sector,
the transition to a low carbon economy will be much slower.
PES: one of the conundrums of solar/Pv power is that the sun
doesn’t shine constantly. are we doing enough to help balance
shifting power production, or improve storage?
Chris Jardine: An interesting question – I’m not sure that it is
necessarily the responsibility of the renewables industry to solve
this. Grid balancing is a factor of intermittent renewables, even
more intermittent load profiles and also the inflexibility of
nuclear power to adjust its output. I don’t think the balancing
issue should lie at the feet of intermittent renewables any more
than the demand side or nuclear – it is a system wide issue.
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ROUNDTABLE
That said from a business perspective there seems to be a
natural synergy between selling a renewable device and storage as a
combination, and it is possible that grid-connected solar/battery
systems will take off over the coming years. However, the whole
storage market is up for grabs; we don’t know if we will see
dedicated centralised storage, dedicated decentralised domestic
storage, or whether storage will come from storage systems within
other end uses (electric vehicle batteries, thermal stores in
homes).
Ultimately storage will take off when the price signals are in
place to allow arbitrage of electricity prices at times of high and
low demand. Without this I see storage as a very niche market, and
it needs policy support to get it to take off as a practical
solution.
Michael Stein: It really is a conundrum. One only needs to look
at Germany to see how the old definition of daily peak cost of
power has changed - in the summer, the peak time has some of the
lowest energy spot prices...completely changing the energy
landscape and for the first time opening the door to CSP which
suddenly could become viable since the cost of the ‘dusk / dawn’
energy become relatively more expensive. For me, the race is on
between battery technology improving by an order of magnitude
versus other sources of renewables like CSP sliding down the cost
curve like solar PV has achieved. My bet is on a ‘black swan’ event
in electron storage (battery technology) but it needs to happen in
the next 10 years or CSP will get there.
Stavros tassos: National power systems across the world are
forced to undergo huge change, initially due to wind power and
increasingly due to solar PV, making the transition into more
active management. The solar resource is less variable and more
predictable than wind and while it still adds to the necessity for
networks to evolve, potential impacts from increased penetration
are less severe. PV plant inverters have an increasingly important
role to play in this move to more active network management and
grid stabilisation, with reactive power capability being just the
first step, and smart grid interaction and in-built storage to
follow. We already see inverter manufacturers investing in R&D
towards that goal, partly in response to evolving grid code
requirements.
Whether inverter-integrated storage or stand-alone battery parks
or other, the market seems to be responding to project developers’
willingness to pay a premium in some locations; however, there is
slower than needed progress – slower than renewables’ penetration
to the system- and in that sense policy intervention is still
required to accelerate rates of uptake.
PES: Finally, what are your thoughts looking forward to the next
12 months?
Chris Jardine: Well first and foremost looking forward to
getting some kind of resolution on the Chinese panel pricing issue.
It’s certainly complicating project development at present. Once
that’s done and dusted I’m looking forward to a continued increase
in the residential and commercial markets and I’m expecting to see
huge volumes of ground-mounted projects developed. I’m also looking
forward to seeing businesses running profitably within the solar
energy sector and recruiting and growing again.
Gordon Wylie: I am very concerned that the expected energy ‘gap’
in the UK is not being given sufficient attention as a matter of
urgency. If this issue continues to be ignored, then it will have
dire consequences for the economy with both power cuts and rapid
energy tariff increases during the next few years. I have made a
number of suggestions to address this issue in my response
earlier.
Michael Stein: I look forward to further declines in the
installed cost of solar PV especially at the domestic level. There
is nothing like benefiting personally from any form of renewable
energy generation to make even a 6.0% return feel great – that’s
what I am getting from my roof. Especially when it is directly
linked to your own energy bill!
richard Fitton: We believe that although the last 12-18months
has been difficult for the solar PV sector globally, the UK is now
starting to see a turnaround. Government schemes such as the Green
Deal are once again pushing the message for energy efficiency and
renewables, and there is more certainty and a clearer Government
policy on FITs. Coupled with this are investments in manufacturing
and research that are reducing panel costs, whilst improving their
outputs and efficiency.
To support this in the region, we have established a Solar
Specialist Interest Group, that brings together organisations and
academics which have an interest in solar PV, supported by a
European Regional Development Grant.
We will also be working with industry to develop collaborative
research projects, and will be looking to partner with them on
funding applications.
Stavros tassos: The next 12 months will see the industry
continuing on its path of consolidation and we are likely to see
further vertical integration as manufacturers will seek to capture
some of the value further down the chain. Module oversupply will
continue in the next 12 months, putting further downward pressure
on prices, which are however showing some early signs of a slowing
rate of decrease.
While the solar market is moving away from Europe, with annual
installations continuing to
decline, there is strong evidence to suggest that overall,
globally, the market remains robust. At the same time there is huge
potential in regions that have not yet started development, which
suggests that growth will continue, with Asia Pacific, MENA and
Latin America being the regions most likely to fuel global growth
in coming years.
While grid parity has been achieved in some, but remains a
moving goalpost in other regions, governments will continue
implementing incentive programmes, most likely Feed In
Tariff-based, although the regulatory frameworks will need to be
designed taking into account the rapidly changing technology price
dynamics so as to avoid implementing retroactive changes and
compromising investor confidence.
opinion formers and industry leaders wanted!
Would you like to sit on the next roundtable? We’re currently
looking for contributors and would welcome applications. Please
contact the editor, Simeon de la torre, at
[email protected] for details.
PES would like to thank all our roundtable contributors. For
more information, please visit their respective websites.
Dr Chris Jardine Senior researcher at oxford University’s
Environmental Change institute, technical Director of Joju
Solar.
www.jojusolar.co.uk www.eci.ox.ac.uk
Gordon Wylie Member of a UK Energy Policy Working Group, and
founder of the Free Green Electricity Corporation (FGEC).
www.freegreenelectricity.co.uk
Dr. henry Snaith lecturer in photovoltaics at oxford University
and Founder and Chief Scientific officer of oxford
Photovoltaics.
www.oxfordpv.com
Dr. Michael Stein Founder, trillion Fund.
www.trillionfund.com
richard Fitton technical Manager at University of Salford’s
unique Energy hub. www.salford.ac.uk/energy
Stavros tassos Solar Energy leader, Mott MacDonald
www.mottmac.com