The Art of the Squeeze Play Presented by: Philip B. Erlanger, CMT Phil Erlanger Research Co., Inc February, 2009 © 2009 Phil Erlanger Research Co., Inc.

The Art of the The Art of the Squeeze PlaySqueeze Play

Presented by:Presented by:

Philip B. Erlanger, CMTPhilip B. Erlanger, CMTPhil Erlanger Research Co., IncPhil Erlanger Research Co., Inc

February, 2009February, 2009

© 2009 Phil Erlanger Research Co., Inc.

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FactorFactor InterpretationsInterpretations


Patterns To Recognize in a 38 Factor Model:Patterns To Recognize in a 38 Factor Model:

5^385^38

364,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.364,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

5^2 = 255^2 = 25

5^3 = 1255^3 = 125

5^4 = 6255^4 = 625

5^5 = 3,1255^5 = 3,125

5^10 = 10,000,0005^10 = 10,000,000


Erlanger Model: 2 FactorsErlanger Model: 2 Factors

P rice A c tion S en tim en t

O b servin g2 F ac to rs

SentimentSentiment

Who Is The Majority At Risk?Who Is The Majority At Risk?

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Question:Question:

Price ActionPrice Action

How Is The Market Treating The Majority?How Is The Market Treating The Majority?


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Question:Question:

SQUEEZE PLAYSQUEEZE PLAY

Majority is Short but….Majority is Short but….

Price is AdvancingPrice is Advancing


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Short Squeeze:Short Squeeze:

SQUEEZE PLAYSQUEEZE PLAY

Majority is Long but….Majority is Long but….

Price is DecliningPrice is Declining


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Long Squeeze:Long Squeeze:

Price ActionPrice Action

TREND INDICATORSTREND INDICATORS

SEASONALITYSEASONALITY


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Focus on:Focus on:

Trend IndicatorsTrend Indicators

DMA (Displaced Moving Avg.) CHANNELDMA (Displaced Moving Avg.) CHANNEL

ERLANGER TREND DIRECTIONERLANGER TREND DIRECTION

RELATIVE STRENGTHRELATIVE STRENGTH


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Focus on:Focus on:

DMA Channel – MUDMA Channel – MU

DMA Channel – MUDMA Channel – MU

DMA Channel – WorldComDMA Channel – WorldCom

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DMA Channel – S&P 500DMA Channel – S&P 500

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Trend Direction – S&P 500Trend Direction – S&P 500

Relative Strength – AmgenRelative Strength – Amgen




SeasonalitySeasonality

Only indicator you can see ahead of time!Only indicator you can see ahead of time! Data on stocks, ETFs, groups, sectors and Data on stocks, ETFs, groups, sectors and

indices (even the VIX.)indices (even the VIX.) Can be tested for validity and consistencyCan be tested for validity and consistency Doesn’t cause moves, reflects tendencies Doesn’t cause moves, reflects tendencies


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SeasonalitySeasonality© 2009 Phil Erlanger

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SentimentSentiment

Short Interest Data:Short Interest Data: Data on most stocksData on most stocks Released Bi-Monthly with delay of 10-daysReleased Bi-Monthly with delay of 10-days Reflects Intermediate time frameReflects Intermediate time frame

Equity Options Activity:Equity Options Activity: Stock SpecificStock Specific Universe = Optionable StocksUniverse = Optionable Stocks Reflects Short-Term time frameReflects Short-Term time frame Reflects Raw (speculative) sentimentReflects Raw (speculative) sentiment© 2009 Phil Erlanger

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Sentiment - Short Interest DataSentiment - Short Interest Data

Short Ratio = Current Shorts / Average Short Ratio = Current Shorts / Average Daily VolumeDaily Volume

Erlanger Short Ratio = Current Shorts /Erlanger Short Ratio = Current Shorts /12-month Avg. of 12-month Avg. of Average Daily Average Daily VolumeVolume


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Short Interest Data – S&P 500Short Interest Data – S&P 500


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Short Interest Data – MUShort Interest Data – MU© 2009 Phil Erlanger

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AmgenAmgen

WorldComWorldCom

Erlanger Type ClassificationsErlanger Type Classifications© 2009 Phil Erlanger Research Co., Inc.

Erlanger Type ClassificationsErlanger Type Classifications


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Erlanger Squeeze ScreensErlanger Squeeze Screens

Groups and SectorsGroups and Sectors


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OptionsOptions

OptionsOptions

Weekly Seasonal Short Interest Weekly Seasonal Short Interest

Technical Reports - SSITTechnical Reports - SSIT

Erlanger Seasonally Strong Ideas Report :

Positive 10, 20 and 40 days forward, seasonally Positive Seasonal Cycle R Positive Seasonal Average Heat Elevated Short Selling underway Trend Direction not in downtrend DMA Channel Status (Monthly, Weekly & Daily) Option Rank, Power Rank, RSI Sector Breakout

Weekly Seasonal Short Interest Weekly Seasonal Short Interest

Technical Reports - SSITTechnical Reports - SSIT

Erlanger Seasonally Weak Ideas Report :

Negative 10, 20 and 40 days forward, seasonally Positive Seasonal Cycle R Negative Seasonal Average Heat Diminished Short Selling underway Trend Direction not in uptrend DMA Channel Status (Monthly, Weekly & Daily) Option Rank, Power Rank, RSI Sector Breakout

Market CommentaryMarket Commentary

We’re In A Tight Spot


Mega Declines: The Good


Mega Declines: The Good

-41.16%


Mega Declines: The Bad

-46.59%


Mega Declines: The Ugly

-84.49%

-49.39%



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-47.83%

37.72%

81.01%











www.ErlangerResearch.comPhil Erlanger Research Co., Inc.Phil Erlanger Research Co., Inc.2 Clock Tower Place, Suite 2402 Clock Tower Place, Suite 240

Maynard, MA 01754Maynard, MA [email protected].: 978-263-2536Fax: 978-266-1104

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The Art of the Squeeze Play Presented by: Philip B. Erlanger, CMT Phil Erlanger Research Co., Inc February, 2009 © 2009 Phil Erlanger Research Co., Inc.

Documents

seasonality slide

worldcom slide

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relative strength amgen

erlanger type classifications