The Arctic in the Anthropocene Emerging Research Questions Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington Committee Co-Chairs April 28, 2014 Study sponsors: DOE,

The Arctic in the AnthropoceneEmerging Research Questions

Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington Committee Co-Chairs

April 28, 2014Study sponsors: DOE, NASA, NOAA, NSF, Smithsonian, USARC Photo credit: P. Spector

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Who are we?• National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is a nonprofit

organization established in 1863. We were charteredby Congress during the Lincoln Administration toprovide independent advice to the Nation onscience, engineering, and medicine We are nota government agency.

• National Academy of Engineering (NAE - est. 1964) and Institute of Medicine (IOM - est. 1970) are connected institutions, expanding our breadth and depth of expertise. (National Research Council is “operating arm.”)

• Intellectual leadership comes from volunteer experts, chosen for expertise, balance, and objectivity.

• Committee reports are most well known (200+ reports each year) but also research grants, fellowships, workshops, & other uses of independent experts.

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Committee MembershipHENRY HUNTINGTON, Co-Chair

The Pew Charitable TrustsSTEPHANIE PFIRMAN, Co-Chair

Barnard College, Columbia UniversityCARIN ASHJIAN

Woods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionLAURA BOURGEAU-CHAVEZ

Michigan Technological UniversityJENNIFER FRANCIS

Rutgers UniversitySVEN HAAKANSON

University of WashingtonROBERT HAWLEY

Dartmouth CollegeTAQULIK HEPA

North Slope BoroughDAVID HIK

University of Alberta

LARRY HINZMANUniversity of Alaska, Fairbanks

AMANDA LYNCHBrown University

A. MICHAEL MACRANDERShell Alaska

GIFFORD MILLERUniversity of Colorado, Boulder

KATE MORANOcean Networks Canada

ELLEN MOSLEY-THOMPSONThe Ohio State University

SAMUEL MUKASAUniversity of New Hampshire

TOM WEINGARTNERUniversity of Alaska, Fairbanks

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1. Study Context• What happens in the Arctic—

to ecosystems, people, and climate—has far-reaching implications for the entire planet

• Climate change is happening faster in the Arctic than anywhere else on Earth, causing the loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost, and shifts in ecosystems

• This report connects the dots between future science opportunities and methods to meet those challenges

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Charge to the Committee• Summarize the rationale for

continued U.S. research in the Arctic

• Identify key emerging scientific questions in different realms of Arctic science (both disciplinary and cross cutting)

Photo credit: M. Kennedy

• Identify the types of research infrastructure, data management, technological developments, and logistical support needed

• Identify needs and opportunities for improved coordination in Arctic research

• Explore how agency decision makers might balance their research programs and associated investments

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Community Engagement• Review of published reports and articles

(including previous reports from numerous regional, national, and international agencies, organizations, and other institutions )

• Online questionnaire(over 300 responses)

• Targeted interviews(15 researchers)

• Anchorage Workshop(~50 participants)

• Ottawa Workshop(~45 participants)

Photo credit: P. Spector

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Community Engagement9%

24%

31%

35% Graduate student

Early career

Mid-career

Late career

10%

18%

6%12%17%

12%3%

22%

Atmosphere/climateBiology/ecologyCryosphereOceansPeople/social scienceTerrestrial/geoPaleoOther/interdisciplinary

Respondent Career Stage

Respondent Disciplines

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2. Rationale for Arctic ResearchExamples of observed impacts of climate change in the Arctic from IPCC 2014

Category Examples

Snow and IceRivers and LakesFloods and Drought

• Decreasing sea ice cover in summer• Reduction in ice volume in glaciers• Decreasing snow cover extent• Widespread permafrost degradation• Increased river discharge for large circumpolar rivers• Increased lake water temperatures• Disappearance of thermokarst lakes due to permafrost

degradation in the low Arctic

Terrestrial Ecosystems • Increased shrub cover in the tundra• Advance of Arctic tree line in latitude and altitude• Changed breeding area and population size of subarctic birds• Loss of snowbed ecosystems and tussock tundra

Coastal Erosion and Marine Ecosystems

• Increased coastal erosion• Negative effects on non-migratory species

Food Production and Livelihoods

• Impact on livelihoods of indigenous peoples• Increased shipping traffic across Bering Strait

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3. Emerging Research Questions• Existing Questions Those that have been the subject

of ongoing research but remain unanswered or for other reasons deserve continued attention

• Emerging Questions Those that we are only now able to ask because they:

– Address newly recognized phenomena

– Build on recent results and insights

– Can be addressed using newly available technology or access

Photo credit: G. Miller

Managed

Evolving Connected

Undetermined

Hidden

Emerging Research Questions

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ERQ: Evolving Arctic• Will Arctic communities have greater or

lesser influence on their futures?• Will the land be wetter or drier and what

are the associated implications for surface water, energy balances, and ecosystems?

• How much of the variability of the Arctic system is linked to ocean circulation?

• What are the impacts of extreme events in the new ice-reduced system?

• How will primary productivity change with decreasing sea ice and snow cover?

• How will species distributions and associated ecosystem structure change with the evolving cryosphere?

Managed

Evolving Connected

Undetermined

Hidden

Figure source: NOAA

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ERQ: Hidden Arctic• What surprises are hidden within

and beneath the ice?• What is being irretrievably lost as

the Arctic changes?• Why does winter matter?• What can “break or brake” glaciers

and ice sheets?• How unusual is the current Arctic

warmth?• What is the role of the Arctic in

abrupt change?• What has been the Cenozoic

evolution of the Arctic Ocean basin?

Image source: NASA

Managed

Evolving Connected

Undetermined

Hidden

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ERQ: Connected Arctic• How will rapid Arctic warming change

the jet stream and affect weather patterns in lower latitudes?

• What is the potential for a trajectory of irreversible loss of Arctic land ice, and how will its impact vary regionally?

• How will climate change affect exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and sub-polar basins?

• How will Arctic change affect the long-range transport and persistence of biota?

• How will changing societal connections between the Arctic and the rest of the world affect Arctic communities?

Managed

Evolving Connected

Undetermined

Hidden

Image source: NASA

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Managed

Evolving Connected

Undetermined

Hidden

ERQ: Managed Arctic• How will decreasing populations in rural villages

and increasing urbanization affect Arctic peoples and societies?

• Will local, regional, and international relations in the Arctic move toward cooperation or conflict?

• How can twenty-first century development in the Arctic occur without compromising the environment or indigenous cultures while still benefitting global and Arctic inhabitants?

• How can we prepare forecasts and scenariosto meet emerging management needs?

• What benefits and risks are presented by geoengineering and other large-scale technological interventions to prevent orreduce climate change and associatedimpacts in the Arctic?

Photo source: USCG

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Leaving room for new ideas and making it possible to identify new research directions when the need arises requires:• Research to better assess new topics• Long-term observations to identify changes and

surprises without delay• Flexibility in funding to be able to move quickly when

a significant event occurs.

ERQ:Undetermined Arctic

Managed

Evolving Connected

Undetermined

Hidden

Short-termDirect application

E1: Community futures

E2: Wetter or drier

E3: Ocean variability

E4: Arctic extremes

E5: Primary productivity

H1: Icy surprises

H2: What is lost

H3: Winter

H4: Break or brake

H5: Unusual warmth

H6: Abrupt change

C1: Jet stream

C2: Irreversible ice

C3: Ocean exchange

C4: Biota transport

C5: Social connections

M1: Urbanization

M2: Cooperation/conflict

M3: 21st century development

M4: ForecastsM5: Geoengineering

H7: Cenozoic

Long-termMedium-term

Basi

c un

ders

tand

ing

E6: Species distribution

Direct Application/Basic Understanding

Short-termSocial Scien

ce

E1: Community futures

E3: Ocean variability

E4: Arctic extremes

E5: Primary productivity

H1: Icy surprises

H2: What is lost

H3: Winter

H4: Break or brakeH5: Unusual warmth

H6: Abrupt change

C1: Jet streamC2: Irreversible ice

C3: Ocean exchange

C4: Biota transport

C5: Social connections

M1: Urbanization

M2: Cooperation/conflict

M3: 21st century developmentM4: Forecasts

H7: Cenozoic

Long-termMedium-term

Nat

ural

Sc

ienc

e

E6: Species distribution

E2: Wetter or drier

M5: Geoengineering

Social Science/Natural Science

H6: Abrupt change

Short-term

Global

E1: Community futures

E2: Wetter or drier

E3: Ocean variabilityE4: Arctic extremes

H1: Icy surprises

H2: What is lost

H3: Winter

H4: Break or brake

H5: Unusual warmth

C1: Jet stream

C2: Irreversible iceC3: Ocean exchange

C4: Biota transport

C5: Social connections

M1: Urbanization

M2: Cooperation/conflict

M3: 21st century development

M4: Forecasts

M5: Geoengineering

H7: Cenozoic

Long-termMedium-termLo

cal

Regi

onal

E6: Species distributionE5: Primary productivity

Global/Regional/Local

Information

CooperationHuman Capacity

Operations

Observations

Investment Strategies

4. Meeting the Challenges

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Meeting the ChallengesMaintaining and Building Operational Capacity• Mobile Platforms• Fixed Platforms and Systems• Remote Sensing• Sensors• Power and Communication• Models in Prediction, Projection,

and ReAnalyses• Partnerships with Industry

Sustaining Long-Term Observations• Rationale for Long-Term Observations• Coordinating Long-Term Observation Efforts

Photo credit: S. Roberts

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Meeting the ChallengesEnhancing Cooperation• Interagency, International, Interdisciplinary, Intersectoral, Social Media

Managing and Sharing Information• Preserving the Legacy of Research through Data Preservation and Dissemination• Creating a Culture of Data Preservation and Sharing• Infrastructure to Ensure Data Flows from Observation to Users, Stakeholders,

and Archives• Data Visualization and Analysis

Growing Human Capacity• Training Young Scientists• Community Engagement

Image source: Arctic Collaborative Environment

Photo credit: H. Huntington

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Meeting the Challenges

Investing in Research• Comprehensive Systems

and Synthesis Research• Non-Steady-State Research• Social Sciences and Human Capacity• Stakeholder-Initiated Research• International Funding Cooperation• Long-Term Observations

Photo source: NOAA

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5. Building Knowledge and Solving Problems

• Enhance the ways inwhich we make useof Arctic research

• Foster collaboration,especially withdecision-makers

• Manage change to the best of our abilities• Study what exists, what is emerging, and what

awaits us in the Arctic

Photo credit: M. Kennedy