The Arab Spring Myths, Realities, and Prospects for Nonviolent Change Dr. Cynthia Boaz Dept of Political Science, Sonoma State University Academic Advisor,

The Arab SpringMyths, Realities, and

Prospects for Nonviolent Change

Dr. Cynthia BoazDept of Political Science, Sonoma State University

Academic Advisor, International Center on Nonviolent Conflict

What is strategic nonviolent What is strategic nonviolent conflict?conflict?

Nonviolent Conflict is a method by which ordinary people mobilize and fight for their rights using disruptive actions without using violence. Disobedience is at the heart of nonviolent resistance.

SNVC can take many forms, including protest, persuasion, non-cooperation, and nonviolent intervention.

SNVC (also called “nonviolent action” or “nonviolent struggle”) is an active phenomenon that empowers people by uniting them in a vision and giving them a shared stake in the outcome of their struggle.

Power, democracy, and Power, democracy, and legitimacylegitimacy

Power is bottom-up, not top-downPower is bottom-up, not top-down No ruler can stay in power without No ruler can stay in power without

consent of peopleconsent of people

Power is pluralistic, not monolithicPower is pluralistic, not monolithic Conflict not consensusConflict not consensus

the people

“rulers”

Understanding Nonviolent Conflict: Understanding Nonviolent Conflict:

How NVC shifts power:

1. 1. Through NVC, a broad-based civic movement can Through NVC, a broad-based civic movement can drive up the cost of repression and reduce the drive up the cost of repression and reduce the economic and political support that an oppressor economic and political support that an oppressor needs to keep control (e.g. South Africa, Poland, US needs to keep control (e.g. South Africa, Poland, US Civil Rights Movement). Civil Rights Movement).

2.2. When the people deprive a ruler of their consent, it When the people deprive a ruler of their consent, it reduces his power. The act of simply refusing to be reduces his power. The act of simply refusing to be complicit in the lie that the oppressor has (a right to) complicit in the lie that the oppressor has (a right to) power can be extraordinarily effective (e.g. Chile, power can be extraordinarily effective (e.g. Chile, Denmark, Serbia).Denmark, Serbia).

3. 3. Once the systemOnce the system’’s own defenders begin to doubt s own defenders begin to doubt whether it can survive (the whether it can survive (the ““pillars of supportpillars of support”” are are undermined), the balance of power shifts to those undermined), the balance of power shifts to those using civilian-based resistance. The movementusing civilian-based resistance. The movement’’s (and s (and methodsmethods’’) legitimacy increases, opening up the ) legitimacy increases, opening up the political space for genuine democracy. political space for genuine democracy.

Understanding Nonviolent ConflictUnderstanding Nonviolent Conflict Power, Obedience, and Legitimacy in NVC:Power, Obedience, and Legitimacy in NVC:

“Power corresponds to the human ability not just to act, but to act in concert. Power is never the property of an individual; it belongs to a group and remains in existence only so long as the group keeps together.”

“Where commands are no longer obeyed, the means of violence are of no use.”

- Hannah Arendt

Correcting common misconceptions:Correcting common misconceptions:- Nonviolent action is not inaction, passivity, the avoidance of Nonviolent action is not inaction, passivity, the avoidance of

conflict, or pacifism.conflict, or pacifism.- Those who engage in nonviolent action do not assume that Those who engage in nonviolent action do not assume that

the opponent will not react with violence. the opponent will not react with violence. - Nonviolent action is not only used as a last resort, when the Nonviolent action is not only used as a last resort, when the

means of violence are unavailable. means of violence are unavailable. - The occurrence of nonviolent action is not determined by The occurrence of nonviolent action is not determined by

culture, economic system, geography, or other structural culture, economic system, geography, or other structural conditions. conditions.

- The effectiveness of nonviolent action is not a function of The effectiveness of nonviolent action is not a function of the ideology or repressiveness of the oppressors. the ideology or repressiveness of the oppressors.

- Participation in nonviolent action does not require the Participation in nonviolent action does not require the holding of any set of ideological, religious, or metaphysical holding of any set of ideological, religious, or metaphysical beliefs. beliefs.

- Nonviolent campaigns do not need a charismatic leader to Nonviolent campaigns do not need a charismatic leader to succeed. succeed.

““Meta-framesMeta-frames”” on NVC on NVC Repression is more interesting than Repression is more interesting than

resistance resistance Violence/force are the most Violence/force are the most ““powerfulpowerful””

means of waging a conflictmeans of waging a conflict Power is top-down, rather than bottom upPower is top-down, rather than bottom up Power is monolithic rather than Power is monolithic rather than

pluralisticpluralistic Conflict is undesirableConflict is undesirable

Start with an Start with an unifying, mobilizing unifying, mobilizing goalgoal

Identify Identify achievable objective(s) achievable objective(s) for for campaigncampaign

Come up with Come up with strategystrategy for getting for getting objectives met objectives met

Choose best Choose best tacticstactics and and actionsactions Claim Claim victory victory with every successful with every successful

campaigncampaign (morale and momentum) (morale and momentum)

Key stages of nonviolent Key stages of nonviolent campaigncampaign

““Pillars of SupportPillars of Support””

- Groups, people, or institutions that help a Groups, people, or institutions that help a policy or system of oppression stay in place policy or system of oppression stay in place

- Movement targets individuals within pillars Movement targets individuals within pillars in order to weaken their support (in order to weaken their support (““pullpull””, , dondon’’t t ““pushpush”” them out) them out)

- When enough individuals within the pillars When enough individuals within the pillars have withdrawn their support, the policy or have withdrawn their support, the policy or system cannot sustain itself system cannot sustain itself

Injustice

Why nonviolent discipline is essential:

-It removes legitimacy from oppressor-It gives moral authority to the movement-It allows for recruitment and expansion of movement-State capacity for violence is superior (movement can win)-Violence expands suffering and prolongs struggle-What’s won through violence must be sustained through it (means and ends are inseparable)-Why struggle just to replace one violent system with another?-There is no such thing as “mixed strategies” or “diversity of tactics”. Once violence is used by movement, it’s no longer a nonviolent struggle

The recordThe record Empirical support for the effectiveness of SNVC:Empirical support for the effectiveness of SNVC:

In the 35 years between 1970 and 2005, there were 67 In the 35 years between 1970 and 2005, there were 67 transitions from authoritarian to democratic governments.transitions from authoritarian to democratic governments. In 50 of 67 of these transitions, the critical factor was In 50 of 67 of these transitions, the critical factor was

nonivolent civic resistance.nonivolent civic resistance.

““The presence of strong and cohesive nonviolent civic The presence of strong and cohesive nonviolent civic coalitions is the most important of the factors in coalitions is the most important of the factors in contributing to freedom [in democratic transitions].contributing to freedom [in democratic transitions].””

Only one transition was led by external military intervention. Only one transition was led by external military intervention.

The countries whose transition was led by internal, broad-The countries whose transition was led by internal, broad-based civilian movements are more likely to be still free a based civilian movements are more likely to be still free a decade later, and they have a much lower risk of decade later, and they have a much lower risk of ““democratic democratic backsliding.backsliding.””

Nonviolent movements see successes more than twice as Nonviolent movements see successes more than twice as frequently as armed struggles. frequently as armed struggles.

(Sources: Freedom House Study: (Sources: Freedom House Study: ““How Freedom is WonHow Freedom is Won””, Chenoweth and Stephan , Chenoweth and Stephan 2011) 2011)

Evaluating NVC in Arab Evaluating NVC in Arab SpringSpring

Do we see both (Gandhi’s) “obstructive Do we see both (Gandhi’s) “obstructive program” and “constructive program” program” and “constructive program”

Where do we see genuine movements?Where do we see genuine movements? What standard is the effectiveness of NVC What standard is the effectiveness of NVC

being measured against?being measured against? What are the results so far?What are the results so far? How is it misunderstood (and what are the How is it misunderstood (and what are the

consequences)?consequences)?

Five Most Common Five Most Common Misconceptions Misconceptions

about Egyptabout Egypt’’s Uprisings Uprising It was spontaneous.It was spontaneous. It was a military coup.It was a military coup. It was orchestrated by the It was orchestrated by the

United States.United States. It was an Islamist uprising.It was an Islamist uprising. It wasn’t nonviolent. It wasn’t nonviolent.

Other considerations.Other considerations. Are the people of the Arab Spring making Are the people of the Arab Spring making

the world safer? the world safer? The role of people power in The role of people power in

delegitimizing violence as a force for delegitimizing violence as a force for change. change.

How NVC intersects with terrorism and How NVC intersects with terrorism and terrorist recruitment. terrorist recruitment.

Final Questions for Final Questions for ThoughtThought

Is it legitimate for external powers (US, EU, UN, Is it legitimate for external powers (US, EU, UN, other IOs) to undermine repressive/unfriendly other IOs) to undermine repressive/unfriendly regimes via support for nonviolent movements?regimes via support for nonviolent movements?

What should be role of United States in assisting What should be role of United States in assisting movements? How does this link to movements? How does this link to ““democracy democracy promotionpromotion””??

Why do we tend to know so little about this Why do we tend to know so little about this phenomenon (even though it liberated more phenomenon (even though it liberated more people in the 20people in the 20thth century than war), especially as century than war), especially as compared to violent conflicts? What can we do compared to violent conflicts? What can we do about that? about that?

Understanding Nonviolent Understanding Nonviolent ConflictConflict

Ongoing nonviolent struggles:Ongoing nonviolent struggles:

BurmaBurma GazaGaza Western SaharaWestern Sahara BahrainBahrain IranIran ZimbabweZimbabwe TibetTibet BelarusBelarus DR CongoDR Congo AzerbaijanAzerbaijan RussiaRussia Occupy Wall Street ? Occupy Wall Street ?