THE ANALYSIS OF THE RUSSIAN SEGMENT IN THE HADCRUT3 DATABASE. THE CASE OF METHODOLOGY. Natalia Pivovarovaand Andrei Illarionov Natalia Pivovarova and Andrei.
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THE ANALYSIS THE ANALYSIS
OF THE RUSSIAN SEGMENT OF THE RUSSIAN SEGMENT
IN THE HADCRUT3 DATABASE.IN THE HADCRUT3 DATABASE.
THE CASE OF METHODOLOGY.THE CASE OF METHODOLOGY.
Natalia PivovarovaNatalia Pivovarova and Andrei Illarionovand Andrei Illarionov
Institute of Economic Analysis,Institute of Economic Analysis,
Moscow, RussiaMoscow, Russia
The Fourth International Conference on Climate Change, The Fourth International Conference on Climate Change,
1. December 15, 2009:How Warming is Made. The Case of Russia.http://www.iea.ru/article/kioto_order/15.12.2009.pdf
2. December 27, 2009:The Analysis of the Russian Segment in the HADCRUT3 Database. Data and Sampling Quality.http://www.iea.ru/article/kioto_order/analysis.pps
“Over last 100 years (1907-2006) the average global warming was 0,74°С, while in Russia temperature on average rose 1,29°С.”http://climate2008.igce.ru/
Both numbers are consistent with each other. They are calculated by members of the same international group of climate scientists, who apply the same methodology to the same data from the same databases.
The basic methodology for calculation of the global temperature is described in:Jones, P.D., M. New, D.E. Parker, S. Martin, and I.G. Rigor. 1999. Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Reviews of Geophysics 37: 173-199. http://www.agu.org/journals/rg/v037/i002/1999RG900002/1999RG900002.pdf
The part of the HADCRUT3 dealing with the land temperature is the database of the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (CRU).
The 0,74°С increase in the global temperature is the result of application of the Prof. Jones’ methodology to the global data from the HADCRUT3 database.
The 1,29°С increase in the Russian temperature is the result of application of the Prof. Jones’ methodology to the Russian segment in the full HADCRUT3 database.
Part of the HADCRUT3 global temperature database was released on December 8, 2009
“These data are a subset of the full HadCRUT record of global temperatures, which is one of the global temperature records that have underpinned IPCC assessment reports and numerous scientific studies.
The data subset will consist of a network of individual stations that has been designated by the World Meteorological Organization for use in climate monitoring. The subset of stations is evenly distributed across the globe and provides a fair representation of changes in mean temperature on a global scale over land.
As soon as we have all permissions in place we will release the remaining station records — around 5,000 in total — that make up the full land temperature record. We are dependent on international approvals to enable this final step and cannot guarantee that we will get permission from all data owners.”
Also, since December 2008 the Russian Institute of Hydro Meteorological Information/World Data Center (WDC) maintains in public domain the database of temperature time-series from 476 Russian weather
stations selected for international scientific exchange.
WDC web-site: http://meteo.ru/
Presumably, the data from these two databases and the results of their processing
By applying the Prof. Jones methodology to the Russian Segment of the HADCRUT3 database or to the Russia’s WDC temperature database one might come to the following conclusion:
The average temperature anomalies based on 476 stations essentially do not differ from the calculations based on data from 121 stations, or 37 stations, or 12 stations.
Russia’s Assessment Report 2008, pp. 9, 36: “Over last 100 years (1907-2006) the average global warming was 0,74°С, while in Russia temperature on average rose 1,29°С.”http://climate2008.igce.ru/
The 1,29°С increase in temperature is a real one. It is a successfully calculated increase in the temperature at the stations located in the Russian oldest and, as a rule, largest urban centers.