The American Clean Energy and Security Act Breakthrough Institute Analysis of the Waxman-Markey Climate and Energy Bill
Jan 02, 2016
The American Clean Energy and Security Act
Breakthrough Institute Analysis of the Waxman-Markey Climate and Energy Bill
According to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, ACES will…1. “Reduce carbon emissions from major U.S. sources by 17% by 2020 and over 80% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels.”
[Source:] http://energycommerce.house.gov/Press_111/20090602/hr2454_reported_summary.pdf
2. “Require electric utilities to meet 20% of their electricity demand through renewable energy and energy efficiency by 2020.”
3. “Invest in clean energy technologies and energy efficiency…”
1. “Reduce carbon emissions from major U.S. sources by
17% by 2020 and over 80% by 2050 compared to 2005
levels.”
2. “Require electric utilities to meet 20% of their electricity
demand through renewable energy and energy
efficiency by 2020.”
3. “Invest in clean energy technologies and energy
efficiency…”
What Will ACES Do?
Claim: ACES will “Reduce carbon
emissions from major U.S. sources by
17% by 2020 and over 80% by 2050
compared to 2005 levels.”
Emissions Reductions
Analysis: ACES cap and trade would
legally permit continued growth in
U.S. emissions for up to two decades.
Emissions Reductions
[Source:] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/climate_bills_offsets_provisio.shtml
ACES Target
1990 baseline
2005 baseline
BAU
Full Offset Levels w/BankingEPA Offsets ProjectionCBO Offsets Projection
ACES Target17% < 2005
With CBO Offset Levels
With EPA Offset Levels
With FullOffset Levels
* Additional permitsbanked for future: 4,218
^ Additional permitsbanked for future: 12,109
Analysis: Strategic Reserve Pool can
raise cap by 10% in any year.
Triggered when prices rise too high.
Floods market with more allowances,
“refilled” with forestry offsets.
Emissions Reductions
[Source] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/the_climate_bills_catch_22_is.shtml
Emissions Reductions
[Source] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/06/climate_bill_analysis_part_vii.shtml
Conclusion:
ACES establishes a (modest) carbon
price and an emissions reduction
target. Does not provide “emissions
certainty” of a “hard cap.”
Conclusion:
ACES effectively
establishes a non-
binding “cap” on U.S.
emissions.
Claim: ACES will “Require electric
utilities meet 20% of their
electricity demand through
renewable energy and energy
efficiency by 2020.”
Renewable Electricity Standard
Renewable Electricity Standard
[Source] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/climate_bills_renewable_electr.shtml
Analysis: RES will have little to no
impact on U.S. renewable electricity
generation. (Breakthrough)
Analysis: RES will have “effectively
zero” impact on U.S. renewable
electricity generation. (Southern
Alliance for Clean Energy)
[Source] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/06/climate_bill_analysis_part_ix.shtml
Renewable Electricity Standard
[Source] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/climate_bills_renewable_electr.shtml
“[A] national RES [at] such a low level …
could severely blunt the signal to the private
sector to invest billions of dollars and
expand production, manufacturing, and job
creation.”
– American Wind Energy Association
[W]e remain skeptical that current versions of either
the RES or a carbon cap and trade policy will lead to
significant solar deployment. … [A] "sweeping"
federal energy bill that fails to deploy a portfolio of
renewable energy options is an underwhelming
outcome, ill-equipped to help us meet the challenges
at hand.” -Vote Solar
Claim: ACES will “Invest in clean
energy technologies and energy
efficiency…”
Investments in Clean Energy
Investments in Clean Energy
[Source] http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/05/how_do_climate_bills_clean_ene.shtml
Analysis: ACES investments in clean
energy R&D are a tiny fraction of
President Obama’s budget;
Clean energy investments overall are
insufficient to the challenge at hand.
ACES RD$0.5b to $1b
Obama Budget$15b
Breakthrough Institute
$15b
Energy Experts Letter$30b*
Brookings$20b to $30b
ACES R&D$0.5b to $1b
2009 DOE R&D Budget$5.3b Stimulus Energy
R&D Investment$4.1*
NIH 2009 R&D Budget$30.5b
Carbon Price• Strategic Reserve Pool price ceiling:
-> $28/ton from 2012-15; 60% above 3 yr rolling
average after 2015
• Price floor:
-> $10/ton at outset, rises 5% each year
• EPA estimate:
-> $12-15 per ton 2015; $15-20 per ton in 2020
• CBO estimate:
-> $15 per ton 2011; $26 per ton 2019
[Chart] PointCarbon.com http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/historicprices/
EPA:$28 ceiling
$10 floor
EPA: $12-20
Carbon Price
CBO:$15-26
2008 ETS Emissions Reductions?
“It confirms that the EU has a well functioning
trading system, with a robust cap, a clear price
signal and a liquid market, which is helping us to
cut emissions cost-effectively. This should
encourage other countries in their efforts to set up
comparable domestic cap-and-trade systems.”
- Stavros Dimas, European Environment Commissioner
“The 3 percent [emissions] reduction [in 2008]
was partly due to businesses taking measures to
cut their emissions in response to the strong
carbon price that prevailed until the economic
downturn started.”
- Stavros Dimas, European Environment Commissioner
Jesse JenkinsDirector of Energy and Climate PolicyBreakthrough [email protected] x465
Ted NordhausChairmanBreakthrough [email protected] x305