The Age of Consciousness - Techcast Global...Global market saturation ~ US$ 700 billion 6. Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World ... Extremism Rises +1 nation -2 System Failures

The Age of Consciousness: Technology is Driving the World Beyond Knowledge

WilliamE.Halal,PhDGeorgeWashingtonUniversityandTechCastGlobal

ForecastsandStrategyforaChangingWorld

AgendaKey Points:§ Collective Intelligence Research Method

§ Technology Revolution

§ Social Trends

§ Wild Cards

§ 2020-2030 Most Likely Scenario

§ AI and Future Jobs

§ Global MegaCrisis

§ Life Cycle of Evolution

§ Beyond Knowledge

§ Institutional Change

Participation Invited:

§ Impact on you, your organization, society?

§ Issues? Strategies?

Copiesavailableatauthor’sdiscount

8/11/16

Copyright W. Halal

TechCast Online Research SystemCollective Intelligence for Tough Questions

• 9 Editors• Internet• Periodicals• Literature• Interviews• Conferences

• Adoption levels• Market Size• Other Forecasts• Trends Pro/Con

BackgroundData AnalysisScanning Expert

Survey Results

• 130 Experts

• Diverse Sample

• Thought Leaders

• Enter Estimates

• Forecasts• Comments• Validate• Rank 2-3/105 M hits

Constant Updating and Learning

StatusQuoDefinedas100%Uncertainty

30- 40%DecreaseInUncertainty

30- 40%DecreaseInUncertainty

Uncertaintyabout30%Avg.Error=+1/-3years

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The Technology Revolution

4

Moon Base

Replacement Organs 15%

E-Commerce 15%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Energy & Environment

Information Technology

Manufacturing & Robotics

Digital Economy

Medicine &Biogenetics

Transportation Space

AlternativeEnergy 30%

Organic Farming 30%

Biometrics 30%

PersonalMedicine 30%

Child Traits 15%

Cloud/Grid 30%

SmartRobots 30%

Life Extension >0%

Space Tourism

Humans On MarsNeuroTech 15%

Next Gen Planes 15%

Mos

t Lik

ely

Year

Climate Control 15%

Intelligent Cars 30%

E-Health 30%

Aquaculture 70%

Smart Grids 30%

Entertainment 50%

Green Economy 30%

Water Treatment 15%

Hi-Tech Homes 30%

Cancer Cure 15%

Small Vehicles 30%

Genetic Therapy 30%

PowerStorage 30%

Synthetic Biology 15%

Electric Cars 30%

Next Gen.Computers >15%

3DPrinting 15%

Commercial Space

SolarSatellites

GMO 30%

Precision Farming 30%

ThoughtPower 30%

AI 30%

Fuel Cell Cars >0%

NanoTech 30%

Hi-SpeedTrains 30%

Internet of Things 30%

TeleWork 30%

IntelligentInterface 30%

Virtual Reality 30%Virtual

Education 30%E-Gov’t. 30%

Global Brain 50%

Alternative Food 15%

Hybrid Cars 30%

Copyright W. Halal

ForecastsandStrategyforaChangingWorld8/11/16

Information Technology


Artificial IntelligenceHighlightsfromBackgroundData

§ $1B in ’93, $12B in ’02, $21B in ’07, $36B by 2015§ Speech/emotion/visual interaction, deep learning, robots,

games & simulations, language translation, neural chips§ Intelligent systems -- Siri, IBM Watson, Microsoft Bing,

Wolfram Alpha, Google, self-driving cars, etc.§ Ubiquitous AI -- GE and IBM building AI systems for

health care, power grids, auto traffic and everything else§ IBM, EU, others simulating the human brain § Kurzweil: $1000 PC with power of the brain by 2020§ General AI comparable to humans ~ 2040

TechCast Forecast: Weak AI replaces routine knowledge work ~ 2025 +/- 6 yrsGlobal market saturation ~ US$ 700 billion

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ForecastTargetImpact(-10to+10)

2018 ExtremismRises +1nation -2SystemFailures 33%orgs -1MatureEcon’sGrow 3%GDP +4

2019 TravelSoars $10Tglobal +22020 ServicesDominate 50%employ. +3

Transparency 50%govt’s. +5Urbanization 60% pop. +1PrivacyDying 50%nations -1

2021JobsFailure 10%unemploy.-3SocialResponsibility 50%corps. +4GenerationChange 50%pop +4ConsumerismGrows67%GDP +4

Social Trends

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2022 DevelopingNationsLead 5%GDP+3LegalPot 33%G20+3EnvironmentDemands 33%G20+6SharingEconomy 30%jobs+4

2023 DiversitySpreads 50%G20+5

2024MassMigration 20%pop+32025WorkingWomen 70%families+52026 EducationExpands 50%college+62028WaterWars 3wars -22029FertilityFalls 1%popgr+22030GlobalEthics 30%pop+5

GlobalGraying 25%pop+5

ForecastsofTimingandSocialImpact


Wild Cards ForecastsofProbabilityandSocialImpact

ProbabilityImpact

§ Israel Conquered 2% -4§ Asteroid Hit 8% -5§ Nuclear War 9% -7§ Alien Contact 13% +3§ UN Collapses 12% -2§ Paranormal Proven 12% +2§ Peace in Palestine 14% +4§ Global Pandemic 16% -4§ Bank Nationalization 21% +1§ Democratic Business 26% +3

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§ Global Depression 28% -3§ China Falls 28% -1§ Weather Control 33% +3§ Solar Storm 33% -3§ Space War 33% -4§ Cyber Attack 34% -2 § Human Cloning 36% +2§ Superbugs 37% -3 § Bio Attack 38% -5§ Climate Shift 48% -3§ Singularity Arrives 51% +2§ Energy Weapons 58% -1


2020-2030 Most Likely ScenarioMacro-Forecast of Technology, Social Trends & Wild Cards

1. Sustainability Green business, GMO, alternative energy, climate control, smart grids, precision farming, aquaculture

2. Green Transportation Hybrid/electric smart cars, hi-speed trains, next gen aircraft, hypersonic flight

3. Mastery Over Life Replacement parts, DNA testing, body monitoring, cancer cure, life extension, neurotechnology

4. Threats Across the Spectrum Depression, banking crisis, job loss, pandemic, climate shift, cyber-war, bio-war, etc.

5. Higher-Order Values Social responsibility, transparency, environment, diversity, women, generation X, global ethics

6. Infinite Knowledge and Intelligence E-everything, global brain, 2nd generation IT (nano, bio, optical, quantum), AI, robotics. Automation of routine thought. What Next?

7. Global Consciousness Movement beyond knowledge. Global MegaCrisis. Restructuring of institutions.

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2015- ArchivalData 2030- ExpertEstimates DifferenceComplexManualWorkBarbers,janitors,farmers,cleaners,cooks,gardeners,repairmen,carpenters,dentists,caregivers

18% 18% 0%

RoutineWork Well-structured manualandservicetaskseasytoautomate:factorywork,clericaljobs,drivingtrucks,etc.

35 17 -18

Service/KnowledgeWorkTeaching,law,medicine,management,theartsandotherprofessionalworklikelytobetransformedratherthanautomated.

35 31 -4

CreativeWork Leadership,entrepreneurship,innovation,collaboration,strategy,vision,etc.Thenextfrontierbeyondknowledge.

4 15 +11

GMI 0 8 +8Unemployment 8 11 +3

8/11/16

Forecast of AI and Future JobsOECD Nations in 2030 53 responses at 3/5/16


Trend Analysis§ 15 Trends Driving the MegaCrisis: Climate change,

energy, financial collapse, globalization, terrorism, water, cyberwar, institutional failures , etc.

§ 7 Trends Resolving the MegaCrisis: Alt. energy, saturation, knowledge, women, youth, long-term trend

Optimism/Pessimism Survey§ 60-70% Probability of Catastrophe or Disaster§ 30-40% Probability of Muddling Through

ObstaclesLack of leadership, political will, vision, cooperation, etc.

Halal and Marien, The Futurist, Journal of Future Studies, World Affairs

8/11/16

The Global MegaCrisis

ForecastsandStrategyforaChangingWorld8/11/16


Beyond Knowledge

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Tech Forecasts§ Neurotech – Brain prostheses and treatment

§ Thought Power – Brain-computer interface

§ Virtual Reality – Simulating exotic environments

Daily Life§ Media – Consumerism, sex, violence, hype

§ Drugs – Prozac, Modafinil, Marijuana

§ Physical Practice – Yoga, dance, athletics

§ Sexuality

§ Meditation & Prayer

Leadership§ Vision – Common purpose and strategy

§ Creativity – Innovation, entrepreneurship

§ Discipline – Accountability, address critical issues, impose sanctions

§ Collaboration – Diplomacy, joint problem-solving, soft/smart power.

§ Servant Leadership – GM Saturn, Good to Great Studies, Japanese

§ Conflict Resolution – Peace making, arbitration, mediation

§ Global Citizens and Ethics – Next Gen values, synthesis of world’s religions

TechnologiesofConsciousness


Principles for a Mature World

§ Be Responsible § Stop Fighting and

Start Cooperating § Reform Institutions§ Green Everything § Plan Ahead§ Celebrate Life

8/11/16

YouTHE ENDTHANK

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Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing Worldtechcastglobal www.techcastglobal.com

8/11/16

The Age of Consciousness - Techcast Global...Global market saturation ~ US$ 700 billion 6. Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World ... Extremism Rises +1 nation -2 System Failures

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