The 8th The 8 폐회식 경품 이벤트 안내asiafutureforum.org/2017/kor/download/aff2017-16-session6.pdf · 16.11.2017 · 한국사회정책학회 & 연세대학교 복지국가연구센터

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Contents


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14:00 - 16:306

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( 2017), :

( 2017), When flexibility meets familialism:

Two tales of gendered labour markets in Spain and South Korea(Journal of

European Social Policy 2016), : , ,

( 2016) .

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) 4.0(Work 4.0)

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: ,

: Uber , AMT

: 4.0

The 8th Asia Future Forum

2017.11.16

, , ( )

O (resilience) - -

O Always in transition :

O (Uber)(Amazon Mechanical Turk) 4.0(indutry 4.0)

- - (product innovation)(process innovation)(https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/content/product-and-process-innovation)

O

O ,

O

4

4 CPS, , (Arvind A., 2016)

CPS(Cyber-Physical Systems) : , , ->

: The Fourth Industrial Revolution : Things to Tighten the Link Between IT and OT

.


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Digital

Economy

(OECD, 2015)

4

(UNCTAD, 2017)

,

,

,

4

4

Industry 4.0, , , , (MiklsGUBN & Gyrgy KOVCS, 2017)

4(process innovation)

4

: Industry 4.0 Challenges and solutions for the digital transformation and use of exponential technologies. Delortte

: Impact of digitalisation and the on-demand economy on labour markets and the consequences for employment and industrial relations

On-demand economy : (, 2017)

Gig economy : (McKinsey, 2015)

Gig Economy

. ,

Gig Economy


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:

: Frey and Osborne (2013), The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerization? University of Oxford.

O Frey and Osbourne(2013)

O Frey and Osbourne(2013)47% 10 20

O 702,

O , , , , , ,

O ,

.

: Hall, Jonathan V., and Alan B. Krueger(2015), An Analysis of the Labor Market for Ubers Driver-Partners in the United States

. 1

Gig Economy :

: the Survey of Adult Skills(PIAAC, 2012) , OECD(2016)

.O OECD(2016) , Frey and Osbourne(2013)

O Frey and Osbourne(2013)(an occupation-based approach) OECD(2016) (a task-based approach)

O ,

O OECD(2016) OECD 21 9%

:

: OECD(2016)

: ICT

:

(communicative

task)

:

.

O 12%, 6%

O , ,

O , .

O

O , , . (communicative tasks), ICT(),


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: On-demand work platform Uber Case Study

-> Job replacement

: ?

: ?

: ?

. 4

:

:

: OECD(2016)

. 4 O , ,

O (1930) (technology unemployment). (automation)(substitution effect)

O , (compensation effects). Arntz et al.(2014)(labour-saving technology effect)

O Autor at al.(2003), ,

() Uber Case Study

Q. ? ( - 2016 6), . ?

()

() Uber Case Study

Q. ? ( - 2016 6)

:


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() Uber Case Study

2015.05

2015.06 4152

2015.12

Q. ?

() Uber Case Study

Q. ?

. .

, ->

, .

, . -> 80% , ->

, .

() Uber Case Study

2017 1 ->

2016 10 , , , , -> '(employer)' '(worker)' .-> (, 2016)

() Uber Case Study

+

, Job

EZ10( 40 km 15 kV 10)

() . 2025

, .

Q. ?


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AMT(Amazon Mechanical Turk) AMT case study

: Hitlin, Paul, Research in the Crowdsourcing Age, 2016, a Case Study, Pew Research Center

. Mechanical Turk

O AMT(requesters)(workers)(tasks)

O

O (free-agent workers)

O (gig economy)(social contract), ,

AMT(Amazon Mechanical Turk) : Crowd work platform AMT case study

: https://www.mturk.com/mturk/welcome

. Amazon Mechanical Turk

O Mechanical Turk 2005(Amazon), 18

O CEO(Jeff Bezos)AMT, . artificial artificial intelligence

O , AMT


: Hitlin, Paul, Research in the Crowdsourcing Age, 2016, a Case Study, Pew Research Center

. Mechanical Turk

-

AMT

24

2~3

,


: Hitlin, Paul, Research in the Crowdsourcing Age, 2016, a Case Study, Pew Research Center.

. Mechanical Turk


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:

: James Manyika, Susan Lund, Jacques Bughin, Kelsey Robinson, Jan Mischke, and Deepa Mahajan, 2016, Independent work: Choice, necessity, and the gig economy, McKinsey Global Institute.

. 15

O

O (independent workers)

O McKinsey Global Institute(2016)15, 25~30% . 15%. 6%


O AMT workers1) , - 51%( 36%), 88% 50( 66%)

2) 5-. 7.25, 52% 5. 540 1. 8% 8

3) 63%- 53% AMT , 25% AMT . AMT, ,

O AMT requesters- 2015 1278, - 36%, 31%.- 61% 10,

:

: McKinsey Global Institute(2016) , 2017. : ,

. 15 O , 2013 2013 48( 10% 48) 20, 2020, 150~250

O 15, 15%(Freelance Physician, Deliveroo, TaskRabbit, Uber, Upwork), 2400(Etsy, eBay, DaWanda) . 900, 130, 300(Airbnb, Boatbound, Getaround, BlaBlaCar)

O . ,

,

, ,

, , Uber

Amazon Mechanical Turk

eBay

Airbnb

4.0 Industry 4.0 case study

: Federal Ministry of Labour and social affairs, based on Hirsh-Kreinsen, 2016

. O 4(industry 4.0)

O 4.0, ICT

O , ,

O , --


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O ? 1) , ,

2) , , Skill-based technological change Routine-based technological change(Goos, Manning, and Salamons 2014)

3) Process innovation, Product innovation Platform economy

- - :

4) , 2 (, )

5) .

4.0 Industry 4.0 case study

: Federal Ministry of Labour and social affairs, based on Hirsh-Kreinsen, 2016

. O , 4.0

O 4.0.

O . -. ,

O (Airbus, Bosch 2017).

:

: David H. Autor, 2015, Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 29, No. 3.

. EU:(1993~2010)O 16, 7

O

O ,

O , (nonroutine tasks), , ,

O ,

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: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee(2016)

. GDP

O ,

O 5% 80% , 1%

O 1975. GDP

O

O Suan Fleck, John Glaser and Shawn Sprague 1947-2000GDP 64.3%, 2010 3 57.8%


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O 1) , 2) (decent work) 3) : , , /

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O GDP 1998 GDP

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O :

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4: 1) 2) 3) 4) (Mastercard 2013)

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O

O Informal sector ,

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https://hbr.org/2016/05/the-countries-that-would-profit-most-from-a-cashless-world

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: (2017.05.16) '' ...

034 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract

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Rutgers , 2003

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SSK [ ] .

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, , Comparative Politics, Journal of European Social Policy, Policy

& Politics, Asian Survey , The Political Economy of the Small

Welfare State in South Korea (2017, Cambridge University Press),

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300 ) .

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1) A basic income is a periodic cash payment unconditionally delivered to all on an individual

basis, w ithout means-test or work requirement (www.basicincome.org/basic-income).


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(Periodic) , , (in-kind) ,

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income tax) . 4 $3,600

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3) M ilton Friedman. 1962. Capitalism and Freedom. Chicago: Chicago University Press; Robet A.

Moffitt. 2003. The Negative Income Tax and the Evolution of U.S. Welfare Policy. Journal of

Economic Perspectives. Vol.17(3): 119-140.

( , 2014: 7

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: Socio-Economics History Bloc

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ble-bursting/Accessed on March 10 2017

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33(3): 253-269

. 2017. 4 . Vol.

66.

( ). 1987. - :

. ( ). 1988. I : .

( ). 2014. : .

( ). 2014. : .

. 2017. 4 : .

.

Executive Office of the President. 2016. Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the

Economy.

Fiedman, M ilton. 1962. Capitalism and Freedom. Chicago: Chicago University Press.

Moffitt, Robet A. 2003. The Negative Income Tax and the Evolution of U.S.

Welfare Policy. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 17(3): 119-140.

Murray, Charles. 2008. Guaranteed Income as a Replacement for the Welfare

State. Basic Income Studies: An International Journal of Basic Income Research. 3(2)

Rawls, John. 1974. Reply to Alexander and Musgrave. The Quarterly Journal of

Economics. Vol.88(4): 633-655.

Rawls, John. 1988. The Priority of Rights and Ideas of the Good. Philosophy &

Public Affairs. 17(4): 251-276.

Van der Veen, Robert and Philip Van Parijs. 2006. A Capitalist Road to

Communism.Basic Income Studies: An International Journal of Basic Income

Research. 1(3)

Vasek, Thomas. 2013. WORK-LIFE BULLSHIT: Warum die Trennung von Arbeit und

Leben in die Irre fuuhrt. Munchen: Riemann Verlag. (2014). .

W inkelmann, Liliana and Rainer W inkelmann. 1995. Happiness and unemployment:

a panel data analysis for Germany. Applied Economics Quarterly. 42(4): 293-307.


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MIT ,

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, , Electoral Studies, Party Politics, Journal of European

Social Policy, Social Science Journal 15 2

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1

, , (gig economy), . : lazy welfare queens: ,

2 4 AI (automation)

Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 2 / 57

[email protected]

. .


. : , 2016 7 16 (Basic Income Earth Network; BIEN) , .

.


,

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:

BIEN

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1 : ( ), ( )

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(work-conditional): ,

2 (work-unconditional) (means-conditional): (lazy welfare queens),



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:

, 2016; Murray, 2008; Van der Veen and Van Parijs, 2006; Van Parijsand Vanderborgt, 2017.

: , ( , )4 : 2016 (World EconomicForum; WEF) OECD 15 500


:

( )1 - Milton Friedman(1962): (negative income tax)2 - : Thomas More(16), Karl Marx(19)

(): Bertrand Russell, Thomas Paign(): F.A. Hayek


:

: futurism.comJungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 11 / 57

:



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:

: International Federation of Robotics, 2015Jungho Roh (Kookmin University) November 2016 14 / 57

:


:


:

(demand-driven economy): .(deadweight loss) (work incentive)



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:

Herbert Simon (Boston Review, October 2000)Christopher Pissarides (at the 2016 World Economic Forum)


:

Silicon Valley CEOs and Scientists

Ellon Musk (CEO of Tesla and SpaceX)Richard Branson (CEO of Virgin Group)Andrew Ng (chief scientist at Baidu)Sam Altman (Prisident of Y combinator; start-up incubator)Bill Gross (Co-founder of Pacific Investment Management)Chris Hughes (Facebook Co-founder)


:

, ; , 2016; , 2016; , 2016; Greenstein,2017.

1 1 (The Luddites) .

, , : = , Rust belt = Silicon Valley

2 .

ex. (Earned Income Tax Credit: EITC)


:

1 2 (cf. 2018 = 630 ) 30 , 10%p (, 2016)

! - .



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Luzi Stamm, a Swiss MP, right-wing Swiss Peoples Party: (BBC, June 2016).Joe Biden, Former Vice President under Obama, Democrats: (The Hill, September 2017).Lodewijk Asscher, a Dutch MP and former Minister of Social Affairsand Employment, Labour Party: , (Radar Extra, August, 2017).

= .


:

Brynjolfsson, Professor at MIT Sloan School of Management (MITTechnology Review, June 2016)Robert Gordon, Economist at Northwestern Univ. (MIT TechnologyReview, June 2016)Charles Wyplosz, Economist at Geneva Graduate Institute (TheGuardian, June 2016)


:

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: (random assignment) .

, ., , .

(ex.) 1000 (social experiment) .= .


2017 1 (The Social Insurance Institution ofFinland, Kansanelkelaitos, KELA)

DV: ( )



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: (2 )

: 2000: 560 . 2. 560 . .: . .


: 25-68

.

: Power Calculation : 550 , : (basic social securitybenefits) 550


:

: Ville-Veikko Pulkka, 2017, "Notes on the Finnish Basic IncomeExperiment"


:

(large-scale fieldexperiment): Olli Kangas

KELA : (goodenough if the first phase)



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KELA

KELA

Power Calculation cf. PC

1 : 2 ,

3

2 .


KELA


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vs.

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:

: KELA

:

560 400 ., , 2 2 . .



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2009 8.3% . 0% ( 1/4 2013 )

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(bias) 3) KELA

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1. GDP

: Eurostat; (2016, 18)

2.

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3. (1) , ! 1) vs. 2) , (work unconditionality) 3) 4) , . 5) , KELA , , , .

(2) (external validity) : , .

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2.6 2.4 3.8 0.8 -0.7 -5.1 1.6 1.2 -0.1 -0.2 1.3 1.0 3.9 2.8 4.1 5.2 0.7 -8.3 3.0 2.6 -1.4 -0.8 -0.7 0.2 4.3 2.8 4.7 3.4 -0.6 -5.2 6.0 2.7 -0.3 1.2 2.6 4.1 2.5 3.0 2.5 2.6 -0.6 -4.3 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.9 3.1 2.2 1.2 0.7 3.7 3.3 1.1 -5.6 4.1 3.7 0.5 0.5 1.6 1.7 2.8 1.6 2.4 2.4 0.2 -2.9 2.0 2.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.2 3.5 3.7 1.7 -3.8 1.4 1.7 -1.1 -0.2 1.4 2.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 5.5 4.8 3.9 3.8 3.4 6.0 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.0 6.6 6.2 8.8 8.4 7.7 6.9 6.4 8.2 8.4 7.8 7.7 8.2 8.7 9.4 7.4 7.7 7.1 6.1 6.2 8.3 8.6 7.8 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.4 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.3 5.6 7.6 7.8 8.1 7.9 7.6 6.1 5.3 10.4 11.2 10.1 8.5 7.4 7.6 7.0 5.8 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.6 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.0 7.4 9.1 9.3 9.2 9.8 10.3 10.3 10.4 5.7 5.9 5.0 4.2 3.7 4.4 5.0 5.0 5.8 7.3 7.4 6.9

: Eurostat; (2016, 18)


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(2013). :

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201-237.

Haldane, A. G.(2015). Growing, fast and slow. Speech given at University of East

Anglia, 17.

Kenny, M. and Zysman, J.(2016).What is the future of work? Understanding the

platform economy and computation-intensive automation, BRIE Working Paper

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and Scientific Policy, European Parliament.

Van Parijs P.(1997). Basic Income: Guaranteed Minimum Income for 21st Century?.

Fundacio Rafael Campalans.


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096 Future of Work Towards a New Social Contract

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203-224

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, 23(1): 91-122.

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(eds.), Basic income on the agenda Amsterdam: Amsterdam University.

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