The 6th Marketing Revolution the chaos marketing bt20120606_slide_share5

« The Quaternary Marketing » A new theory of marketing in the digital era and NBIC:

The five revolutions of Marketing !

Bruno TEBOUL

Paris, 29th may 2012

The author: Bruno Teboul

Corporate Digital Marketing Director

(The european leader in ICT)

Master of Epistemology

(1993 - University of Paris 12)

Post Graduate Diploma in Cognitive Neurosciences

(1994 - Ecole Polytechnique)

Executive MBA

(2003 - HEC/UCLA)

PhD student in Marketing & Management Science

(2012 University Paris-Dauphine)

Bruno Teboul

The 6th marketing revolution:

The Chaos Marketing…

Bruno Teboul

Bruno Teboul

The 6th marketing revolution:

The Chaos Marketing…

Chaos can be understood by comparing it with two other

types of behaviors – randomness and periodicity.

Random behaviors never repeat themselves although we

can predict the average behavior of a system using

statistics.

Periodic behavior is highly predictable because it always

repeats itself, for example, the swinging of a pendulum.

Such systems are deterministic, i.e. if we know the

conditions at any one point we can predict those

conditions at any other point in time.

Chaos has characteristics of both behaviors like

Marketing Theory: although it seems disorganized like

random behavior, it is deterministic like periodic

behavior.

Bruno Teboul

The 6th marketing revolution:

The Chaos Marketing…

Bruno Teboul

The concept of “catastrophe” should be considered here

as its Greek etymology "Katastrophe" means “upheaval”

that is abrupt and unforeseen.

The catastrophe theory as defined occurs when going

from one stable equilibrium point, a new stable state

different, naturally this balance may - be relative and

fragile. The customer in all its components (actions,

perceptions, emotions) might well be considered an

informational field, protei-form.

Stocks, flows, stimuli ... which feeds the customer, via a

transmitter (marketing campaign / brand communication

for example), or an observer (Marketing Studies Manager

...) and it feeds back (interactions) determine a

topological figure through which the client will move

from an initial situation (time 0 of the observation or

receiving the stimulus transmitter) considered an

equilibrium point.

The 6th marketing revolution:

The Chaos Marketing…

Bruno Teboul

From there, a multi – modal path offers the customer

to "navigate" according to its state at the time (the

time of receptivity, perception, past experience of a

brand, product, a point sale ..) or whether his

approach is exploratory (impulse purchase, or

acquisition of information) or confirmatory (purchase

reflected).

The choice of a path (behavioral modality) results in

catastrophe (as defined above), that is to say, the

breaking of the initial equilibrium (symbolized by the

crease, for example in one of the models catastrophe

theory of René THOM).

The terms of choice, translate into behavior and thus

determine trajectories in a space of possibility (buying

- not buying, loyalty – churn).

The 6th marketing revolution:

The Chaos Marketing…

My own intellectual journey and university led me to

the study of Cybernetics 2, the cognitive sciences

(including neuroscience and AI) and to the theories of

Poincaré, Thom, Lorenz and Morin which I applied to

the humanities and then management science and now

marketing in particular.

Indeed, the most surprising is the analogy between the

evolution of science and scientific theories revisited in

the classics by these three theories "Chaos",

"Catastrophe" and "Complexity" where I will describe

the concept of Theory “3C applied in Marketing!

Bruno Teboul

Raymond Poincaré René Thom Edward Lorenz Edgar Morin

Bruno Teboul

When examining more closely the reasons why marketing is a

increasingly complex discipline , the concept of "chaos" in the

scientific sense may be attributed: one thinks immediately of the

distortion of results that is observed between the initial conditions of

a product test conducted in a focus group for example and the

actual results of sales a few weeks or months after the effective

launch of the product and its marketing.

Indeed, this equation cannot apparent that the findings of a

customer study = consumer events predictive founded the "chaotic"

Marketing ".

Because the change of initial states (here the variation and

inaccurate responses panelists for example) will cause an opposite

reaction and very serious consequences for the subsequent events

that are normally "predictable" (launch failure of a new product on

the market following a study by the declarative bias of participants

who say the opposite of what they think ...), but "not achieved" within

the meaning of the term probability.

The 6th marketing revolution:

The Chaos Marketing…

This complexity can become totally chaotic and erratic and

generate a deterministic noise. It is in this sense that marketing

gets into trouble when there is an extremely sensitive dependence

on initial conditions.

A very small initial change can impact in very important and

unexpected ways. This is what is called chaotic behavior. The

famous "flap of a butterfly can cause a tornado...“

Bruno Teboul

The 6th marketing revolution:

The Chaos Marketing…

Bruno Teboul

The transition from stable to chaotic dynamics depends on

the combination and the relative strength of different

elements. Although governed by deterministic rules, the

multiplicity of interactions and relationships between

variables transforms the elements into a complex system

whose behavior is unpredictable and impossible to

anticipate. Unpredictability of determinism are born on

chance.

Therefore, the impact of a minimal change in the initial state

of a chaotic system is unpredictable and can cause changes

dramatically different with considerable differences in

outcomes. Consequently, one can doubt the ability to model

a prediction in marketing: it is indeed a problem of method

and a paradigm shift required to make marketing become a

form of predictive science ...

The 6th marketing revolution:

The Chaos Marketing…

Bruno Teboul

The 6th marketing revolution:

« The Chaos Marketing »

Classic and obsolete vision of MarketingVision of Quaternary Marketing (Applied Chaos

Theory)

Marketing defines according to Philip

Kotler and supporters of Marketing

Management.

Marketing today is a Marketing Complexity,

Advanced Technologies and the Convergence of

Sciences.

Marketing is evolving in a linear, stable,

predictable and controllable.

Marketing has gone through in our five major

revolutions and is trapped by three great paradoxes

that should allow it to adapt and evolve as an

academic discipline and applied.

The main paradigm is the Marketing Mix

(nP's theory).

Marketing now obeys several paradigms and

complement coexistente: Homo non-Bayesian,

Heuristics and bias, Neuroscientist and Data

models

The customer relationship is based on a

standard outline "behaviorist": Stimuli

>>> Response (Procter: Solutions >

Response).

The relationship with the consumer based on a

cognitive approach and neuro-scientific: Stimuli

>>> Black Box >>> Response.

The consumer is rational and Bayesian

(legacy of the micro-economics and the

concept of Homo Economicus), loving

consumer market and ready to spend

amazingly... Advertisers are willing to

lavish advertising costs in the mass media

to sell products, permanently install their

brand, or consolidate their hegemony in a

market ...

The consumer is not rational, faithless … the

consumer is saturated with information (Big Data),

polluted by thousands of advertisements that do

not interest him (Big Ads), for products that have

neither pleasure nor utility to buy…

Inspired by the work of Ilya Prigogine