The 6th Conference on The 6th Conference on Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research September 21-22, 2009 Katowice, Poland September 21-22, 2009 Katowice, Poland Criticalities in Applying the Neyman’s Optimality in Business Surveys: a Comparison of Selected Allocation Methods Paola M. Chiodini a,d , Rita Lima c , Giancarlo Manzi b,d , Bianca Maria Martelli c, *, Flavio Verrecchia d [email protected]a. Department of Statistics, Università di Milano-Bicocca, Milan, Italy b. Department of Economics, Business and Statistics, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy c. ISAE, Rome, Italy d. ESeC, Assago (MI), Italy
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The 6th Conference on Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research September 21-22, 2009 Katowice, Poland Criticalities in Applying the Neyman’s Optimality.
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The 6th Conference on The 6th Conference on Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research
September 21-22, 2009 Katowice, PolandSeptember 21-22, 2009 Katowice, Poland
Criticalities in Applying the Neyman’s Optimality in Business Surveys: a Comparison
of Selected Allocation Methods
Paola M. Chiodini a,d, Rita Lima c , Giancarlo Manzi b,d, Bianca Maria Martelli c,*, Flavio Verrecchia d
a. Department of Statistics, Università di Milano-Bicocca, Milan, Italy b. Department of Economics, Business and Statistics, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy c. ISAE, Rome, Italy d. ESeC, Assago (MI), Italy
September, 21-22 2009, 6th Conference “Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research “ , Katowice, Poland
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DISCUSS POSSIBLE MORE EFFICIENT SAMPLE DESIGNS FOR THE ISAE BUSINESS TENDENCY (BTS) SURVEY
– BTS Economic features
– BTS Statistical features
– Operational bounds
TO MEET EVERYBODY’S NEEDS WHILE STRENGHTENING OUTCOMES RELIABILITY (INDUSTRIAL CONFIDENCE)
AIM OF THE PAPERAIM OF THE PAPER
September, 21-22 2009, 6th Conference “Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research “ , Katowice, Poland
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BTSBTS ECONOMIC FEATURES ECONOMIC FEATURES
• Business Tendency Surveys investigate CONFIDENCE of economic agents
• CONFIDENCE can be defined as the (positive) attitude of economic agents toward both firms’ (internal) and country’s (external) variables– Corresponding Universe real value unknown
• To this purpose BTS collect information about a wide range of variables selected for their capability, when analysed together, to give an overall picture of industrial sector of the economy (OECD 2003)
• The survey ask entrepreneurs and managers assessmentsassessments on current trends and expectationsexpectations for the near future regarding both their own business and the general situation of the economy
• Business Tendency Survey thus collect qualitativequalitative information, mainly with a three options ordinal scale
September, 21-22 2009, 6th Conference “Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research “ , Katowice, Poland
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BTSBTS ECONOMIC FEATURES ECONOMIC FEATURES
September, 21-22 2009, 6th Conference “Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research “ , Katowice, Poland
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CONFIDENCECONFIDENCE
• Answers obtained from the survey are quantified in form of “balances”“balances” , i.e. differences between positive and negative answers’ percentages
• The statistical series derived from business tendency surveys are particularly suitable for monitoring and forecasting business cycles
• The aggregation of selected series (order book level, production expectations and stock) gives the confidenceconfidence indicator
• Confidence indicators (and some single series too) often have leading capabilitiesleading capabilities and are widely used in the analysis of the economic cycle (recessions/expansions)
September, 21-22 2009, 6th Conference “Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research “ , Katowice, Poland
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SHORT SURVEY HISTORYSHORT SURVEY HISTORY
• The manufacturing survey began 1959 on a quarterly basis and became monthly 1962 on a limited number of questions (purposive panel)
• During the years the survey was broadly modified to meet upcoming occurrences: – 1986 the sample was updated in order to provide information
also a regional level adopting a stratified (sector/region/size) partially random sample
– 1998 the Neyman’s optimal allocation of the reporting units to sample strata based on workforce variance was introduced (Cochran 1977)
– 2003 data processing was upgraded introducing a two-stage weighting system (sample weights and size weights) according to OECD (2003) able to assure a fully fledged comparability between local and national data
September, 21-22 2009, 6th Conference “Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research “ , Katowice, Poland
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GDP and CONFIDENCEGDP and CONFIDENCE
• Confidence well fit the GDP shifts • In recent times (since April 2009) positive signals from the survey
(last available GDP figures Q II 2009: very negative)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
GDP (t-4 % ch lhs) Confidence (index, 2000=100, s.a. rhs)
September, 21-22 2009, 6th Conference “Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research “ , Katowice, Poland
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EUROPEAN REFERENCE FRAMEEUROPEAN REFERENCE FRAME
• The Survey is part of the Joint Harmonised Business and Consumer Survey (BCS) program of the European Commission
• The project began 1962 and ISAE (formerly ISCO) was one of the founder member
• The principle of harmonisation underlying the project aims to produce a set of comparable data for all European countries (EC 2007)
• To achieve this goal institutes have to: – Use the same harmonised questionnaire– To strictly respect the Commission timetable in carrying on the
survey and transmitting the results
Institutes are relatively free to define any other aspects of the entire process (apart from a minimum sample size)
September, 21-22 2009, 6th Conference “Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research “ , Katowice, Poland
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• FRAME : ASIA archive of Italian active firms (last update 2006): + complete universe of firms – relatively late update
• QUESTIONNAIRE: fixed by Commission. Can only be integrated
• DATA COLLECTING MODE: CATI (Computer Aided Telephonic Interviewing), partly integrated with fax (foreseen some CAWI):
Keep ASIA as FRAME
MIXED MODE
September, 21-22 2009, 6th Conference “Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research “ , Katowice, Poland
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OPERATIONAL CONSTRAINSOPERATIONAL CONSTRAINS
– EC: • recommended SAMPLE SIZESAMPLE SIZE about 40004000 units (firms/kind
of activity units), bound to the country population size
• Very strict TIMING CONSTRAINTS:
– MONTHLY FREQUENCY, – 12 DAYS DATA COLLECTION– 1 WEEK PROCESSING RESULTS
– NATIONAL: LOCAL INFORMATIONLOCAL INFORMATION• Governmental priority• Possible revenues
– ISAE: PRESERVING “LOYAL” FIRMSPRESERVING “LOYAL” FIRMS: • Research purposes of longitudinal analyses• Conflicting with sampling theory (Panel rotation)
September, 21-22 2009, 6th Conference “Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research “ , Katowice, Poland
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BTS STATISTICAL FEATURES BTS STATISTICAL FEATURES
As the total sample size is predetermined (about 4000 units), to increase precision is then mainly possible to work on:
– Strata definition (partially predetermined and bound to economic and administrative settings)
– Units’ allocation to StrataUnits’ allocation to Strata– Panel maintenance– Non response handling– Weighting
September, 21-22 2009, 6th Conference “Survey Sampling in Economic and Social Research “ , Katowice, Poland
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STRATA DEFINITIONSTRATA DEFINITION
STRATA defined according to: • ECONOMIC SECTORS
– 19, nearly EC requests, adapted to Italian economy
• AREAS (NUTS1) – 4, administrative classification, widely different in size
• FIRMS’ SIZE (by workforce)– Small (10-49 ), Medium (50-249) , Large (>=250). Distribution is
right (positively) skewed because of the presence of few “large” establishments and many “small” units
• Minimum threshold of 10 employees – About 80% of total workforce