The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook (public edition)

The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook

The Context: ASEAN grows fast, large demand on energy

The world economy is moving from a post-crisis bounce-backphase of the recovery to slower but Southeast Asia movefaster – how does it affect global demand growth?

Energy Efficiency is the most effective way of meeting future demand - but are the current plans effective enough?

Coal and Natural gas production are greater than current consumption – but are they enough for future demand?

Vietnam will join Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand dominate the regional energy future – but where will their policy decisions lead us?

©ACE, February 2011

The 3rd Outlook:Energy Efficiency as Alternative Scenario

The 1st on 2007,The 2nd on 2009, The 3rd on 2011

Joint output by ACE, IEEJ, and National ESSPA Teams

Two (2) Scenarios:

1. Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario

Base on GDP Growth Targets of the 10 Member States

2. Alternative Policy Scenario

Base on Energy Saving Goals and Action Plans of 10 Member States in primary energy demand and CO2

emissions


Socio Assumption:GPD and Population Growth Rate*

Country GDP Pop Growth

Brunei Darussalam 2.6% 2.1%

Cambodia 6.9% 1.3%

Indonesia 6.3% 1.1%

Lao PDR 7.5% 1.7%

Malaysia 5.0% 1.6%

Myanmar 9.0% 1.7%

Philippines 4.9% 1.4%

Singapore 3.9% 0.7%

Thailand 4.1% 0.3%

Vietnam 7.5% 0.9%

ASEAN 5.2% 1.1%


GDP Projections is slightly lower than on the previous outlook due to global economic crisis, but ASEAN keep going above the world average

*Source: 10 ASEAN Member States

Oil Price Assumption:Base on Japan CIF


The world is facing the high oil price, double than today in 2030

Alternative Policy Scenario:1. EE&C Targets

Brunei Darussalam 25% EI from 2005 level by 2030

Cambodia 10% TFEC all sector

Indonesia 1%/year TFEC from BaU

Lao PDR 10% TFEC all sector

Malaysia 10% TFEC Industrial, Commercial and Residential from 2011 to 20301.39 ktoe TFEC Transportation by 2030

Myanmar 5% TPEC by 2020 and 8% by 2030 compare to BaUImprove 16% Energy Efficiency in all end-use

Philippines 10% TFEC all sector

Singapore 20% EI by 2020 and 35% by 2030 from 2005 levelCap 63 Mt-CO2 by 2020

Thailand 25% total energy by 2030 compare to BaU

Vietnam 3%-5% TFEC by 2010 and 5%-8% by 2010-2015


Alternative Policy Scenario:2. RE and Biofuels Targets

Brunei Darussalam 10 MV PV by 2030 No target

Cambodia 1.5 MV PV, 87 kW Biomass, 500 kW Micro-hydro No target

Indonesia Energy Mix by 2025: 5% Geothermal, 2.6% hydro, 0.03% wind, 0.74% biomass

+5% biofuels

Lao PDR Hydro project No target

Malaysia By 2030: 1340 MW Biomass, 410 MW Biogas, 490 MW Mini-hydro, 854 MW Solar, 390 MW Municipal Solid Waste

5% for road transport

Myanmar 15%-20% RE in Electricity Generating 8% for road transport

Philippines New by 2030: 1,500 MW Geothermal, 2,100 MW Hydro, 950 MW, 71 MW PV, 102 MW Biomass

Displace 15% of diesel and 20% of gasoline

Singapore 5% PV in Energy Mix No targets

Thailand 6,329 MW of RE 12.2% for transport

Vietnam By 2030: 2100 MW Wind, 2400 MW Hydro, 400 MW Biomass

No targets


Alternative Policy Scenario:3. Nuclear Energy Targets

Brunei Darussalam No target

Cambodia No target

Indonesia 1.4% nuclear of energy mix by 2025

Lao PDR No target

Malaysia 2,000 MW by 2023

Myanmar No target

Philippines 2,000 MW by 2025

Singapore No target

Thailand Develop 5,000 MW from 2020 to 2028

Vietnam 1,000 MW by 2020, increase to 10,1000 MW by 2030


Final Energy Consumption:By Sector


Grow at an annual rate of 4.4% from 2007 to 2030 reaching almost 1,018 MTOE in BaU, with the transport sector as the fasted, driven by the increasing per capita income. But, in APS, grow at a lower annual rate of 3.6% with the total potential

saving will be around 17.2%

Final Energy Consumption:By Fuel Type


Oil will remains as the most used fuel ≈ 45% share by 2030, both in BaU and APS.

But, applying APS, there are 18.6% saving potential for oil, 20.3% coal, 17.4% electricity , and 12.6% natural gas.

Primary Energy Supply:RE shines, but Fossil Fuels stay dominant


Coal keeps growing as the highest, driven by the demand increase in Industry and Power Generation, but Transport will brings Oil stay dominant. Geothermal rise

in Indonesia and Philippines, hydropower in Great Mekong, and Nuclear in Thailand and Vietnam. APS can reduce 18.5% from BaU by 2030.

Power Generation:Coal and Gas will continue to form bulk of supply


Projected to increase 4x by 2030 with Coal and Gas will continue as the backbone of regional electricity generation. Oil share will decrease significantly due to

diversification program for alternative fuels and renewable portfolio standard implemented.

CO2 Emission:High Growth, ASEAN should reduce a lot


High annual escalation of Coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, driven the high projection CO2 emission growth (5.7% per year). Applying APS can reduce about

697 Mt-C, 24% lower than 895Mt-C in BaU.

Energy Intensity:Increase regional living standard


Improvement in fuel mix where natural gas comes more dominant as the feedstock for power generation and improvements in energy efficiency, bring EI decrease

almost 50% by 2030 (APS). Advanced economies with high living standards have relatively increase energy use per population to at 3.4% per year (BaU)

Country Energy Share:Vietnam will join dominate energy future


The share of Indonesia’s primary energy supply is decreased during 1990 to 2007 due to the rapid increase of the requirement of Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.

But by 2030, as experience and still projected to has high economic growth, Vietnam will join as dominant with annual growth rate of 6.3%.

Energy Efficiency:Recent plans, would make a difference but need more


Energy saving goals set by the government of the 10 ASEAN Member States; energy efficiency and conservation, renewable energy including biofuels and nuclear, would able to reduce final energy consumption. Effectively apply in Indonesia:

reduce 25%, Thailand 22%, Malaysia 21% and Brunei 20%.

Renewable Energy:Rise but not fast enough


Although the number of Others (covers mostly biomass use by the final sector and supply of renewable energy such as bio-fuels, wind, solar, etc)is keep rising, but it will have a slower growth rate of 1.7% per annum. By 2030, its predicted only

13.4% share in Total Primary Energy Consumption, compare 23.5% in 2007.

Implications: Challenge facing energy security

As member countries continue to pursue their economic goals, primary energy consumption and CO2 emission (dominant oil, gas and coal) in region will increase three folds – increasing pressure on energy security and global environmental stability.

If current levels of energy production do not increase –region will have to source out from outside.

Appropriate energy efficiency and conservation programs, low emission technology, and increased shares of non-fossil fuels in Power Generation – reduce carbon intensity and contribute to energy security.


Policy Recommendations: Regional stands facing energy security

Encourage more aggressive energy efficiency and conservation measures i.e modal shift in transportation sector, high efficient clean coal technology, CDM projects, etc.

Formulating mechanisms/regulations to remove subsidies to fossil fuel energy and provision of incentives to encourage further development of renewable energy, hydrocarbon resource potential as well as nuclear energy.

Establishing energy management systems and energy efficiency standards.

Strengthening regional cooperation especially in sharing best practices in energy development and utilization.


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The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook (public edition)

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