The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon The views, opinions, forecasts and estimates herein are those of the CoreLogic Office of the Chief Economist, are subject to change without notice and do not necessarily reflect the position of CoreLogic or its management. The Office of the Chief Economist makes every effort to provide accurate and reliable information, however, it does not guarantee accuracy, completeness, timeliness or suitability for any particular purpose. CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
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The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon
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The 2017 Housing& Economic OutlookFrank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist
@DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEconThe views, opinions, forecasts and estimates herein are those of the CoreLogic Office of the Chief Economist, are subject to change without notice
and do not necessarily reflect the position of CoreLogic or its management. The Office of the Chief Economist makes every effort to provide
accurate and reliable information, however, it does not guarantee accuracy, completeness, timeliness or suitability for any particular purpose.CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
Household Mobility & Mortgage Market Trends
Household Trends:
–Millenniums have added to housing need: renters today, owners tomorrow
–Homeowners (primarily Baby Boomers) are staying in their homes longer
–Interstate buyers driven by affordability, jobs, weather
Mortgage Trends:
–Home-price growth & lessened mobility prompts more home-improvement
–High LTV & debt-to-income products are in market, but need good credit
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population as of July 1, 2015
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
Age in 2015
34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Average Age
First-time
Homebuyer
Average Age
Repeat Buyer
Population
in 2015
(Millions)
16%
12%
8%
4%
20%
Millennial Share of Buyers Lower in Expensive Markets
Share of Purchase-Money Applicants Aged Under 30
Source: CoreLogic
(purchase loan
applications,
Jan-Oct 2016)
Americans Are Keeping Their Homes Longer
8
6
4
2
10
12
Number of Years A Home Is Owned (Median)
14
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: American Housing Survey for the United States, various years (difference between
survey year and median year owner-occupant moved into unit), CoreLogic public records for
United States (length of time between recorded sales on same home).
2010 2015
Home
Sellers
Owner
Occupants
Interstate Buyers Seek Affordability, Jobs and Warmth
Jan-Oct 2016)Ratio of Buyers Moving Out to Moving InRatio of Buyers Moving In to Moving Out
All Ages
NY, NJ
NC, FL
CA, CO
VA, FL
CA, CO
CA, FL
CA, TX
CA, OR
NY, PA
FL, KY
VA, FL
NJ, FL
MD, FL
FL, IN
TX, NV
NJ, FLSource: CoreLogic
(purchase loan
applications,
States in
Green are Top
2 Sources
States in Red
are Top 2
Destinations
11 22 33 44
Millennials: Affordability & Jobs
Baby Boomers: Affordability & Warmth
Source: CoreLogic (purchase loan
Ages 25-34 Ages 55 and Older
applications, Jan-Oct 2016)
NYNC
VA CA
AZCA
ORNY
KY
VA NJ
NY NC CA
FLCA FL NY
GA
MDIN
TXNJ
AZFL
FL
FL NJ
FLFL
AZFL
State in Green
is Top Source
State in Red is
Top Destination
New-Home Sales Levels Highest in the SouthMonthly Number of New Sales (Average) New Home Sale Share
Based on
the Top 100
Metros for
Home Sales
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Houston TX
Dallas TX
Atlanta GA
Phoenix AZ
Austin TX
Charlotte NC
Washington DC
San Antonio TX
Orlando FL
Tampa FL
Denver CO
Nashville TN
Riverside CA
New York NY
Raleigh NC
Las Vegas NV
Jacksonville FL
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Source: CoreLogic. Left: average monthly new homes sold Oct 2015 to Sept 2016; Right: new-home share of sales Oct 2015 to Sept 2016; top 100 CBSAs based on new and existing home sales.
25%
Raleigh NC
Austin TX
Charleston SC
San Antonio TX
Provo UT
Houston TX
Columbia SC
Dallas TX
Charlotte NC
Jacksonville FL
Naples FL
Lakeland FL
Baton Rouge LA
Boise ID
Nashville TN
Orlando FL
Las Vegas NV
Highest Growth New-Home Markets (top 100 metros)
Source: CoreLogic, percent change, number of new-home sales Oct 2015-to-Sept