The 2010 Elections for the Greek Regional Authorities

The 2010 Elections for the Greek Regional Authorities

Andreadis I., Chadjipadelis Th. Department of Political Sciences, Aristotle University Thessaloniki

Greece

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Outline (part I)

• Regional elections are considered as second order elections. In addition, candidates do not run under the name of a political party.

• What is the most important criterion used to choose a candidate for regional governor?

• What is the impact of voters’ party attachment to their voting behaviour in regional elections? Do they vote for a different candidate?

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Outline (part II)

• Individuals who vote for a different candidate:– How many are they?– Their most important criterion?– Their party attachment?

• Analysis of voting behaviour in Attica– Voter transition rates– Dimaras’ electoral base

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Data and methods (part I)

• Data from Helpmevote (Voting Advice Application)– VAA used for Greek Regional Elections of 2010– Provides voting advice by matching voters' policy

views with candidates' positions.– Voters express their views on issues that reflect the

most important dimensions of political competition.– A formula calculates proximity of voters’ positions to

the positions of the candidates– The output of the application is a ranked list of

candidates according to calculated voter/candidate proximities.

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Data and methods (part II)

• Helpmevote Data– In 20 days more than 28,000 users – Helpmevote users had the option to fill-in a

"personal data" form and provide information about them

• Ecological inference on electoral results of regional elections 2010 and parliamentary elections 2009.

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Most important criterion used

0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0%

Personal relations

Party support

Electoral list names

The program

Knowledge of problems

Personality (soc-occup)

Sincerity - honesty

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Correspondence analysis: party attachment and main criterion

Party SupportHonesty

Manifesto

Other

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Distribution of voting behaviour by main criterion

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Personal relations

Personality (soc-occup)

Sincerity - honesty

Electoral list names

Knowledge of problems

The program

Party support

Different Candidate Undecided Same Candidate

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Distribution of voting behaviour by party attachment

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ND

KKE

PASOK

LAOS

GREEN

DEM. LEFT

SYRIZA

Different Candidate Undecided Same Candidate

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Distribution of voting behaviour by Region (voters attached to PASOK)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

North AegeanPeloponnese

ThessalyWest Greece

E.Macedonia-ThraceCentral Macedonia

CreteCentral Greece

West MacedoniaEpirus

Southern AegeanAttica

Ionian Islands

Different Candidate Undecided Same Candidate

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Region of Attica

• Nearly 2 million people have participated to the general elections of 2009 in Attica region

• In the same region almost 450,000 fewer people have voted for the regional elections (2010)

• The number of invalid (spoiled and blank) ballot papers have raised from about 55,000 to about 142,000.

• As a result the total number of valid ballots (due to abstinence and the increase of non-valid votes) is reduced by about 27%.

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2009-2010 comparison (Attica)Candidate % 2010 Supporting Party % 2009

Sgouros 24.0% PASOK 40.3%

Kikilias 20.5% ND 28.0%

Dimaras 16.0% Independent (PASOK) -

Pafilis 14.4% KKE 10.2%

Georgiadis 6.6% LAOS 7.5%

Mitropoulos 6.2% SYRIZA 6.8%

Diakos 4.0% Greens 4.0%

Psarianos 3.8% Democratic Left -

Hagios 2.3% ANTARSYA 0.5%

Alavanos 2.2% Independent (Left) -

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Voting behaviour by party attachment (Attica)

12,4%

8,6%

6,7%

6,3%

3,5%

12,3%

11,6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

PASOK

ND

KKE

LAOS

SYRIZA

GREEN

DEM. LEFT

Same Undecided Other Dimaras

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VTR estimates for ND and PASOK voters (Attica)

ND2009 PASOK2009 ND2009* PASOK2009

*

Abstention 9.1% 31.6%

Sgouros 10.9% 32.3% 12.0% 47.3%

Kikilias 55.4% 1.3% 61.0% 1.9%

Dimaras 10.2% 21.8% 11.3% 32.0%

Pafilis 0.8% 2.7% 0.8% 3.9%

Georgiadis 2.3% 0.2% 2.5% 0.4%

Mitropoulos 0.9% 2.3% 1.0% 3.4%

Other & Blank 7.1% 6.6% 7.9% 9.6%

*: Rates calculated among voters who have gone to the regional polls

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Electoral base of Dimaras

• Won 2 out of 10 of PASOK 2009 voters. A part of them remain attached to PASOK.– Approximately 12.4% of the voters who feel close to PASOK

have reported their intention to vote for Dimaras

• Won 1 out of 10 of ND 2009 voters. Most of them remain attached to ND.– Approximately 8.6% of the voters who feel close to ND have

reported their intention to vote for Dimaras

• During the pre-election period 70% of voters who do not feel close to any party remained undecided.– Only 12.8% of the voters who do not feel close to any party

have reported their intention to vote for Dimaras

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Conclusions

• Voting a different candidate• Factors associated with individual

characteristics (party support and criteria used) and factors related to conditions in the region (i.e. independent candidate from the same ideological space).

• Implications from vote analysis in Attica region and directions for further analysis

• Some of PASOK voters who have voted for Dimaras still feel close to PASOK and probably they will return until the next general election. Another part appears to have left PASOK.