NEHRP Earthquake Scenario Planning Workshop September 17 and 18, 2008 The 1906 Earthquake Scenario and Golden Guardian ‘06 Exercise Richard Eisner, FAIA Fritz Institute Two Objectives for the Two Objectives for the Scenario Scenario 2006 Centennial Commemoration of the San 2006 Centennial Commemoration of the San Francisco Earthquake Francisco Earthquake -- -- Education & Education & Awareness Awareness Recurrence of 1906 Today Recurrence of 1906 Today -- -- The Full Monty The Full Monty 19 Counties 19 Counties Current Built Environment Current Built Environment Golden Guardian 2006 Golden Guardian 2006 -- -- Exercise Scenario Exercise Scenario DHS/OHS Catastrophic Regional Disaster DHS/OHS Catastrophic Regional Disaster Scenario Attributes Multi-County Urban Region USGS Modeled Ground Motions From 1906 Undated Building Inventory Where Available Detail Assessments Where Available (OSHPD) HAZUS Augmented by Narrative on Lifelines PG&E, BARTD, Caltrans Team Effort The Team The Team California State Warning Center (Data) California State Warning Center (Data) United States Geological Survey (Ground United States Geological Survey (Ground Motions and Time History, Aftershocks) Motions and Time History, Aftershocks) PBS&J Atlanta (HAZUS Estimates and PBS&J Atlanta (HAZUS Estimates and Graphics) Graphics) Charles Kircher & Associates (HAZUS Charles Kircher & Associates (HAZUS Estimates and Analysis) Estimates and Analysis) Hope Seligson (HAZUS Estimates and Hope Seligson (HAZUS Estimates and Analysis) Analysis) Bay Area Regional Transit District (Narrative) Bay Area Regional Transit District (Narrative) California Department of Transportation California Department of Transportation (Narrative) (Narrative) Pacific Gas & Electric (Time History, Narrative) Pacific Gas & Electric (Time History, Narrative) OES, DHS, OHS, FEMA and HAZUS (Funding and OES, DHS, OHS, FEMA and HAZUS (Funding and Staff) Staff) West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (Graphics and Time History) (Graphics and Time History) Multiple Objectives, Multiple Multiple Objectives, Multiple Funding Sources Funding Sources California Office Of Emergency Services California Office Of Emergency Services Federal Emergency Management Agency Federal Emergency Management Agency EERI EERI DHS Urban Area Security Initiative DHS Urban Area Security Initiative OHS Homeland Security Exercise and OHS Homeland Security Exercise and Evaluation Program Evaluation Program
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The 1906 Earthquake Scenario and Golden Guardian '06 Exercise
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NEHRP Earthquake Scenario Planning Workshop September 17 and 18, 2008
The 1906 Earthquake Scenario and Golden Guardian ‘06 Exercise
Richard Eisner, FAIAFritz Institute
Two Objectives for the Two Objectives for the ScenarioScenario
2006 Centennial Commemoration of the San 2006 Centennial Commemoration of the San Francisco Earthquake Francisco Earthquake ---- Education & Education & AwarenessAwareness
Recurrence of 1906 Today Recurrence of 1906 Today ---- The Full MontyThe Full Monty19 Counties19 CountiesCurrent Built EnvironmentCurrent Built Environment
Golden Guardian 2006 Golden Guardian 2006 ---- Exercise ScenarioExercise ScenarioDHS/OHS Catastrophic Regional DisasterDHS/OHS Catastrophic Regional Disaster
Scenario Attributes
Multi-County Urban RegionUSGS Modeled Ground Motions From 1906Undated Building Inventory Where AvailableDetail Assessments Where Available (OSHPD)HAZUS Augmented by Narrative on Lifelines
PG&E, BARTD, Caltrans
Team Effort
The TeamThe Team
California State Warning Center (Data)California State Warning Center (Data)United States Geological Survey (Ground United States Geological Survey (Ground Motions and Time History, Aftershocks)Motions and Time History, Aftershocks)PBS&J Atlanta (HAZUS Estimates and PBS&J Atlanta (HAZUS Estimates and Graphics)Graphics)Charles Kircher & Associates (HAZUS Charles Kircher & Associates (HAZUS Estimates and Analysis)Estimates and Analysis)Hope Seligson (HAZUS Estimates and Hope Seligson (HAZUS Estimates and Analysis)Analysis)
Bay Area Regional Transit District (Narrative)Bay Area Regional Transit District (Narrative)California Department of Transportation California Department of Transportation (Narrative) (Narrative) Pacific Gas & Electric (Time History, Narrative)Pacific Gas & Electric (Time History, Narrative)OES, DHS, OHS, FEMA and HAZUS (Funding and OES, DHS, OHS, FEMA and HAZUS (Funding and Staff)Staff)West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (Graphics and Time History)(Graphics and Time History)
California Office Of Emergency ServicesCalifornia Office Of Emergency ServicesFederal Emergency Management AgencyFederal Emergency Management AgencyEERIEERIDHS Urban Area Security InitiativeDHS Urban Area Security InitiativeOHS Homeland Security Exercise and OHS Homeland Security Exercise and Evaluation ProgramEvaluation Program
Multiple MastersMultiple Masters
Anniversary Commemoration Wanted Global Anniversary Commemoration Wanted Global Picture of Impact on RegionPicture of Impact on RegionState and Region Wanted Earthquake State and Region Wanted Earthquake Scenario for Exercise and Focus on Local to Scenario for Exercise and Focus on Local to State to Federal Communication and State to Federal Communication and Coordination of Response/LogisticsCoordination of Response/LogisticsDHS Required More Fatalities, IEDs*, DHS Required More Fatalities, IEDs*, Terrorists, Field Theater and Media AttentionTerrorists, Field Theater and Media Attention
The Scenario Took on A Time The Scenario Took on A Time DimensionDimension
Recognize That Scenario Is Not a Static End Recognize That Scenario Is Not a Static End State PictureState PictureInformation Varies with Time and ScenarioInformation Varies with Time and ScenarioThere is Never Adequate Information for There is Never Adequate Information for Decision Making / Decision MakerDecision Making / Decision MakerNeed to Train as You Would Play Need to Train as You Would Play ---- In the In the Fog of WarFog of War
For GGEX06For GGEX06
Need to Disaggregate Data to Census Tracts Need to Disaggregate Data to Census Tracts and Provide Time Historyand Provide Time HistoryNeed to Develop Local Script of Damage and Need to Develop Local Script of Damage and SequenceSequenceNeed to Use Available Estimates to Make the Need to Use Available Estimates to Make the Best Decisions When Information InadequateBest Decisions When Information InadequateNeed to Think Strategically Need to Think Strategically
Exercise StructureExercise Structure
Regional Disaster Impacting 19 CountiesRegional Disaster Impacting 19 CountiesOne Year of Planning & PreparationOne Year of Planning & PreparationSudden Onset Event*Sudden Onset Event*Cold Start ResponseCold Start ResponseRamping Up of Response Capability in Real Ramping Up of Response Capability in Real TimeTimeReplicate Actual Information Flow From Locals Replicate Actual Information Flow From Locals Up to Region, State and Federal LevelsUp to Region, State and Federal Levels
*Not a Hurricane or Flood*Not a Hurricane or Flood
What We Know and DonWhat We Know and Don’’t t KnowKnow
Only the Local Level Has Tactical KnowledgeOnly the Local Level Has Tactical KnowledgeLocals Do Not Understand Overall EventLocals Do Not Understand Overall EventHierarchy Aggregates Local DataHierarchy Aggregates Local Data
Sets Response Resource Allocation PrioritiesSets Response Resource Allocation PrioritiesPaints Comprehensive ImagePaints Comprehensive ImageDisseminates Comprehensive to All PlayersDisseminates Comprehensive to All Players
Others Play the ScenarioOthers Play the Scenario
Concepts of OperationConcepts of Operation
Local Governments Are In chargeLocal Governments Are In chargeState and Federal Levels Provide and Broker State and Federal Levels Provide and Broker ResourcesResources
Projected NeedProjected Need
OES SOC Provides Interface with Federal and OES SOC Provides Interface with Federal and InterInter--State ResourcesState ResourcesUse Information You Have Including ShakeMap Use Information You Have Including ShakeMap and HAZUS Estimatesand HAZUS EstimatesAll Play in Real Time for 36 HoursAll Play in Real Time for 36 Hours
Scenario PlayScenario Play
MSEL* Based on HAZUS Scenario and Time MSEL* Based on HAZUS Scenario and Time HistoryHistory3,000+ Messages Plus Additional Interventions3,000+ Messages Plus Additional InterventionsCounty Level Estimates and Graphic Distribution County Level Estimates and Graphic Distribution Disaggregated and LocalizedDisaggregated and LocalizedEach County Played Their Role With Their Own Each County Played Their Role With Their Own Piece of EventPiece of EventRegion/State Used Input from Counties and Region/State Used Input from Counties and Estimates from HAZUSEstimates from HAZUS
*Master Scenario Event List*Master Scenario Event List
Best Made PlansBest Made Plans……
Real Tsunami Advisory Issued by WCATWCReal Tsunami Advisory Issued by WCATWCPlayed Scenario and Real Tsunami ResponsePlayed Scenario and Real Tsunami Response
05:12:0005:12:00
05:12:0005:12:00 Earthquake NucleatesEarthquake Nucleates05:12:1005:12:10 Electric Circuits Near Epicenter Begin to Electric Circuits Near Epicenter Begin to Trip Off Trip Off 05:12:1005:12:10 PG&E and ISO OpPG&E and ISO Op--Centers Initiate Power Centers Initiate Power Shedding to Balance GridShedding to Balance Grid05:12:1005:12:10 Progressive Blackout of Region Initiated Progressive Blackout of Region Initiated to Prevent Cascading Failureto Prevent Cascading Failure05:12:3005:12:30 Strong Ground Motions Felt Throughout Strong Ground Motions Felt Throughout Bay RegionBay Region
05:12:3505:12:35
05:12:3505:12:35 State Warning Center State Warning Center Receives Receives Calls Calls from Coastal Counties on CALWAS from Coastal Counties on CALWAS –– ““ Expletive! Expletive! We are having an EarthquakeWe are having an Earthquake””05:12:4505:12:45 Earthquake Felt In SacramentoEarthquake Felt In Sacramento05:12:4505:12:45 Electrical Power Off in Most Electrical Power Off in Most of the Bay of the Bay RegionRegion05:13:0005:13:00 Earthquake Reported on Fox and CNNEarthquake Reported on Fox and CNN
05:13:0005:13:00
Strong Ground Motions Taper OffStrong Ground Motions Taper OffCoastal County 911 Centers are SaturatedCoastal County 911 Centers are SaturatedPhone Systems SaturatedPhone Systems SaturatedBART Issues Stop Order for All Trains. Trains BART Issues Stop Order for All Trains. Trains Already Stopped from Loss of Power. Two Trains Already Stopped from Loss of Power. Two Trains Stop in TubeStop in Tube
05:15:0005:15:00
CISN Posts Location of Earthquake EpicenterCISN Posts Location of Earthquake EpicenterLocal Governments Responding to What They Local Governments Responding to What They Can SeeCan SeeState Warning Center Initiates Activation of State Warning Center Initiates Activation of State Operations CenterState Operations CenterCalifornia Geological Survey Activates Key StaffCalifornia Geological Survey Activates Key StaffCalTrans Initiates Remote Video Inspections of CalTrans Initiates Remote Video Inspections of Bridges (If Operational)Bridges (If Operational)
05:15:0005:15:00
CalTrans Maintenance and Traffic Operations CalTrans Maintenance and Traffic Operations Personnel Mobilized to EOCs and Maintenance Personnel Mobilized to EOCs and Maintenance FacilitiesFacilitiesMedia Provides Initial Public Information on Media Provides Initial Public Information on Emergency Alert SystemEmergency Alert System
05:17:0005:17:00
CISN Posts Location, MagnitudeCISN Posts Location, MagnitudeUC Berkeley Confirms Magnitude, Location to UC Berkeley Confirms Magnitude, Location to State Warning CenterState Warning CenterWCATWC Issues Tsunami Warning BulletinWCATWC Issues Tsunami Warning BulletinOES Schedules Conference Call with California OES Schedules Conference Call with California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC)(CEPEC)
05:20:0005:20:00
CISN Posts First ShakeMap From UC BerkeleyCISN Posts First ShakeMap From UC BerkeleyShakeMap Downloaded to Federal, State and ShakeMap Downloaded to Federal, State and County AgenciesCounty AgenciesShakeMap is the First ShakeMap is the First ““ImageImage”” of the Eventof the Event
How Big?How Big?How Bad?How Bad?Where?Where?
05:32:0005:32:00
USGS Issues Automated Aftershock Forecast USGS Issues Automated Aftershock Forecast (90% Probability of M5 and Larger Aftershocks (90% Probability of M5 and Larger Aftershocks in Next 7 days)in Next 7 days)
5% to 10% Probability of Larger Event5% to 10% Probability of Larger Event
OES GIS Staff are Recalled to Run HAZUS Loss OES GIS Staff are Recalled to Run HAZUS Loss EstimateEstimateBART Imports ShakeMap into Risk Assessment BART Imports ShakeMap into Risk Assessment Program (SERA) to Set Inspection Priorities Program (SERA) to Set Inspection Priorities BART on Manual Operations Where Power BART on Manual Operations Where Power AvailableAvailable
07:00:0007:00:00
Initial HAZUS Damage Estimates AvailableInitial HAZUS Damage Estimates Available
Damage to Damage to BridgesBridges
000000000 101010101010101010
milesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmiles
202020202020202020
Area of PotentialGround Failure
San San San San San San San San San BenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenito
San MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan Mateo
.5 Million .5 Million Household Household Without Power Without Power (2400, Day 1)(2400, Day 1)Over 1 Million Over 1 Million Households Households without water without water (2400, Day 1)(2400, Day 1)
miles
0 10 20
6,000
1,700
39,400
524,200
426,000
322,100
248,800
65,300
87,500
6,5006,700
136,000
145,000
143,000
34,000
21,900
San San San San San San San San San BenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenito
M ontereyM ontereyM ontereyM ontereyM ontereyM ontereyM ontereyM ontereyM onterey
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa ClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClara
Over $120 Over $120 Billion of Billion of Building LossesBuilding LossesDirect and Direct and Indirect Losses Indirect Losses will Exceed will Exceed $150 Billion$150 Billion
000000000 101010101010101010
milesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmiles
202020202020202020
San FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan Francisco
San MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan Mateo
Multipurpose Scenario Is ComplexMultipurpose Scenario Is ComplexMedia Scenario is GlobalMedia Scenario is GlobalExercise Scenario is DetailedExercise Scenario is Detailed
Regional Scenario Required a Significant Regional Scenario Required a Significant Commitment From Many PlayersCommitment From Many Players
Emergency ManagersEmergency ManagersUtilities and LifelinesUtilities and LifelinesSecurity is an Excuse to Not PlaySecurity is an Excuse to Not PlayHAZUS Support Critical HAZUS Support Critical
For a Regional Exercise
Need to Localize Regional Scenario (3,000+ Need to Localize Regional Scenario (3,000+ Injects) Injects) Be Able to Make a Major Commitment of Time Be Able to Make a Major Commitment of Time and Resources (2 Years, Broad Participation and Resources (2 Years, Broad Participation From Bay Region Counties and $3 MillionFrom Bay Region Counties and $3 MillionNeed to Build Trust in Estimates to Need to Build Trust in Estimates to ““Play the Play the ScenarioScenario”” Until There is Ground TruthUntil There is Ground Truth
Scenario and HAZUS Scenario and HAZUS EstimatesEstimates
For, Rapid Onset Events, We Have No Choice For, Rapid Onset Events, We Have No Choice But But ““Play the ScenarioPlay the Scenario””Need to Build Inventory and Redundant Need to Build Inventory and Redundant OperabilityOperabilityWe need to Exercise the Way We Will Have to Play, Because We Will Play the Way We ExerciseTime History Critical to Scenario EffectivenessTime History Critical to Scenario Effectiveness