Thayer Why has the South China Sea become a regional security issue?

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T eSout C inaSea

ProfessorCarlThayer

Presentation to RAND

Washington,DCMarch25,2011

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WhyhastheSouthChinaSeare

emergedas asecurityissue?

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Claimants Featuresoccupied Estimated

troops

Vietnam 2122 9001,000

ThePhilippines 89 600700

China 710 9001 000

Malaysia 45 230330

Taiwan 1 500600

Brunei 0 0

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ASEANDeclarationonConductof

PartiesintheSouthChinaSea

1995

02

China

ASEAN

discussions

on

South

ChinaSearesultsinDOC

Nonbinding

Geo ra hicareanotdefined

Confidencebuildingmeasuresproposed

JointWorkingGrouptoImplementDOC

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JointSeismicMarineUndertaking

2004

200508

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Sansha County

levelCit ,Hainan

Island[Paracels,

(Macclesfield

Islands]

esta is e

November2007

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Anti

China

Student

Demonstrations

HanoiandHoChiMinhCity

on an ec.ChinasInvasionPlanPosted

onChinesewebsitesinAugust

2008

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2.VietnamsMaritime

DevelopmentStrategyto2015

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Chinese Unilateral Fishing Ban

Ma 16-Au ust 1 2009

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USNSImpeccableIncidentMarch2009

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ExtendedContinentalShelfMay2009

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Chinamake

Chinas

basedona

producedby

Government

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ChinasResponseto

a ms or

Extended

Continental

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ChinaidentifiedtheSouthChinaSeaasacoreinterest March2010

UnclearwhichChineseofficialmade

comment StateCouncillor DaiBingguo

AssistantMinisterofForeignAffairsCuiTiankai

Unclearifthisrepresentsachangeinofficialpolicy

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meeting[inChina]oftheStrategicand

conom c a ogue ay , a

theyviewtheSouthChinaSeaasacoreinterest,Iimmediatelyrespondedand

saidWedontagreewiththat.

SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,quotedin

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rd

a enc mar ocument

betweenASEANandChina.

AssignedSeniorOfficialstoresume

discussionswithChinaontheSouth

ChinaSea

ASEANForeignMinistersstatementJuly

20,2010

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th

. .

DeclarationonConductofPartiesintheSouthChinaSea. Weencouragethepartiestoreachagreementonafullcodeofconduct. TheU.S. isprepared

buildingmeasuresconsistentwiththedeclaration.

SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton 11of27membersvoiceconcern

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. ,

EastandSouthSeaFleets.

FleetinresponsetoUSROKexercise

3. LateJu y argesto its in ,mostmodernships,seniorcommanders

4. EarlyNovember 100platforms+marines

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NorthSea

Fleetanchors

Reef

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MarchApril2010

as eaan or

SeaFleetsconduct

beyondFirstIsland

Chain

Vietnamese

fishingcraftswarmarounda

Chinesefishery

PLANwarships

intervene

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th

China

is

a

big

country

and

other

countriesaresmallcountries,and

thatisjustafact,[staringdirectly

,

GeorgeYeo].

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st

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nd

anyclaimantattemptingtoenforce

U.S.draftstatement

roppe romo c a s a emen aswe

asallreferencestoSouthChinaSea

WhiteHousereadout

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orincludedinfinalstatement

7ministersraisedSouthChinaSea

,problem.

,theexternalaffairsofficeinChinasDefenceMinistry

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ImplementtheDOCrevived

Nowdiscussingacodeofconductforthe

ASEANChinadiscussionsmayhavebeen

promptedbyU.S.diplomaticintervention IndonesiaasASEANChairhasraisedissue

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Conclusion

PositiveDevelopments

Chinahasceasedpressureonn erna ona o an gascompan es

USdownplaysanotherUSNSImpeccableincident

DecreaseinharassmentofVietnamese

fishermen

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Conclusion

NegativeDevelopments

Chinaincreasingcapacitytoenforcesoverei nt claims

ContinueddevelopmentofYulin Naval

ContinuedlackofChinasdefence

ransparency AnxietyaboutdeclineofUSprimacy

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T e

Sout

C ina

Sea

ProfessorCarlThayer

Presentation to RAND

Washington,DCMarch25,2011