Thayer Asymmetric Threat & Southeast Asia

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Introduction to Asymmetric Threat

Carlyle A. Thayer*

[Paper to The Incorporation of Asymmetric Threats in Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA)Training Activities, Fourth FPDA Professional Forum, co-hosted by Australia and Malaysia,Crown Princess Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, October 20-22, 2003]

I would like to start by thanking the co-hosts for the invitation to address you today. It is

indeed an honour for me to be here.

I would also like to enter the standard caveat that I am speaking in my personal capacity

and that my views do not represent the official policy or position of my employer.

My aim today is to provide a general introduction to asymmetric threat as a foundation

for you to meet the Professional Forums objective of exploring how the Five Power

Defence Arrangements might adapt to address asymmetric threat in training activities.

My presentation is divided into four parts: asymmetric threat, asymmetric threat and

Southeast Asia, the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA) and asymmetric threat,

and a conclusion.

I. Asymmetric Threat

When I was first approached about this topic I conducted a search of the Internet. The

key words asymmetric threats generated 8,310 hits, while the related key words

asymmetric warfare generated 11,600 hits. I will, of course, summarise this enormous

literature in the next 40 minutes.

*Carlyle A. Thayer is Deakin Universitys On Site Academic Coordinator at the Centre for Defence and

Strategic Studies (CDSS) at the Australian Defence College. He is currently on secondment from the

Australian Defence Force Academy where he holds a personal chair as Professor of Politics.


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A review of the literature provides the following conclusions: there is no agreed

definition of the term asymmetric threat, and asymmetric warfare is as old as warfare

itself. Weaker opponents have always sought to neutralize their enemys technological or

numerical superiority by fighting in ways or on battlefields that nullify it.1

One writer argues that the term is nonsense because it implies a dichotomy - symmetry

on the one side and asymmetry on the other.2

I do not find it surprising that there is no agreed definition. Asymmetric threat is a

contested term. That is what we academics do best. We invent terms and then argue

endlessly over (or contest) the meaning of these new terms.

Definition

Let me table for your consideration the following definition coined by Colin Gray of the

University of Reading, asymmetric threats are those that our political, strategic and

military cultures regard as unusual.3

Let me repeat: asymmetric threats are those that our political, strategic and military

cultures regard as unusual. I think this definition is pertinent because of the multinational

nature of the Five Power Defence Arrangements which brings together different

political, strategic and military cultures.

Asymmetric threats are unusual in at least nine ways.4 They are:

Unconventional

Irregular in that they are posed by instruments (non-state actors) unrecognized by

laws of war

1Vincent J. Goulding, Back to the Future with Asymmetric Warfare, Parameters, Winter 2000-01, 21.

2Colin S. Gray, Thinking Asymmetrically in Times of Terror, Parameters, Spring 2002, 5 and 14.

3Gray, Thinking Asymmetrically in Times of Terror, 5.

4Adapted from Gray, Thinking Asymmetrically in Times of Terror, 5-6.


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Unmatched by current military capabilities and plans Highly leveraged against particular assets, civil more than military Designed to work around, offset and negate current strengths Difficult to respond to in kind Difficult to respond to in a discriminate and proportionate manner Raise the prospect of the unknown unknown. We do not look for what we do not

know to look for.

Difficult to deterThe asymmetric threats of concern are those that do regional FPDA members, Malaysia

and Singapore, hard to their interests.

Asymmetric Warfare

Now let me turn to the allied term asymmetric warfare. Asymmetric warfare is a broad

and inclusive term coined to recognize that two sides in a conflict may have such

drastically different strengths and weaknesses that they resort to drastically different

(asymmetric) tactics (or strategies or methods of warfare and conflict) to achieve relative

advantage including attacks on civilians. In other words, asymmetric warfare may be

defined as any conflict deviating from the norm, or an indirect approach to affect a

counter-balancing of force.5

5David L. Grange, Asymmetric Warfare: Old Method, New Concern,National Strategy Forum Review,

Winter 2000, 1.


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Traditionally, since the emergence of the Westphalian system of states, warfare was

conducted on a state versus state basis. Asymmetry is not just the province of the weak;

asymmetry may also be exploited by the strong.6

It is not my intention here to go into a detailed narrative of the history of modern warfare.

But I would like to introduce the idea that as warfare has evolved we may identify at least

four generations of warfare:7

First-generation warfare was characterized by close-order formations armed with guns to

repel sword and bayonet cavalry and infantry.

Second generation warfare was characterized by the use of mass firepower and its

effective management through a conflict of attrition.

Third generation warfare is characterized by the use of decentralized attacks against

second generation armies with the defender often the winner by virtue of being able to

wear the attacker down.

Fourth generation warfare is highly irregular and consists of asymmetric operations in

which a vast mismatch exists between the resources and philosophies of the combatant.

Emphasis is placed on bypassing an opposing military force and striking directly at

cultural, political or population targets

In the contemporary world state on state conflict has receded in scope and intensity.

Conflict today is more likely to be between a state and a non-state actor. Non-state actors

or fourth generation warriors (4GW) comprise non-national and trans-national groups

that form on the basis of ideology, religion, tribe, culture, zealotry, and illegal economic

6Gary Eason, Analysis: Asymmetric Warfare, BBC News Online, April 1, 2003 citing U.S. Brig. General

Vincent Brooks.7Jason Vest, Fourth-generation warfare, The Atlantic Monthly Online, December 2001, 2 and Center for

Defense Information, Reshaping the Military for Asymmetric Warfare, CDI Terrorism Project, October 5,

2001, 2.


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activities. Through decentralized attacks on markets, communications and cultural icons

and the use of information warfare they have pushed many regions of the world into

anarchy.8

Non-state actors are difficult to target and engage by conventional means.9

Non-state

actors may not wear distinctive uniforms so as to be hard to tell apart from the local

community. They have shown themselves willing to fight and die for their causes, most

notably by employing the tactic of suicide bombers. Non-state actors are not constrained

by conventional norms and international law. They employ new and innovative means to

achieve their objectives.

In responding to the challenge of fourth generation warriors the military element of

national power, however crucial, is not the decisive factor. Non-state actors cannot be

easily decimated by conventional means. High-tech standoff warfare is largely ineffective

as well.10 Indeed, the overwhelming use of force (being seen as too successful), or a

disproportionate use of force against non-state actors may produce a backlash.

Conflict provoked by non-state actors has no quick fix solutions. Instead non-state actors

must be confronted by a combination of military, economic, diplomatic, political and

cultural elements of national power designed to erode their support base. In addition,

states must often cooperate with neighbours and friends more distant to degrade the

logistic, recruitment and communications bases of non-state actors.

I would now like to turn to a discussion of asymmetric threats and Southeast Asia.

8Grange, Asymmetric Warfare: Old Method, New Concern 2.

9Vest, Fourth-generation warfare, 2 citing Franklin C. Spinney, Donald Vandergriff and John Sayen,

Spirit, Blood and Treasure: The American Cost of Battle in the 21st

Century.10

Grange, Asymmetric Warfare: Old Method, New Concern 3.


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II. Asymmetric Threats and Southeast Asia

In many respects asymmetric threats are not a new phenomenon in post-independent

Southeast Asia. Almost every state in the region has experienced some form of violent

domestic challenge to the legitimacy of the state. These challenges have arisen from pro

and anti communist insurgencies as well as ethnic, religious and regional separatist

groups or movements seeking to establish an Islamic state. Communist insurgencies

succeeded in Indochina (Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia) but failed in the Philippines,

Malaysia, Burma, Indonesia and Thailand. All of these states were characterized by low

levels of economic development. This has meant that the most important security

challenges to the state have been internal. This has had an important impact on national

security and defence doctrine as we shall see below.

But there have been several state on state conflicts, notably between North and South

Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia (Konfrontasi), and Vietnam and Cambodia.

Changing Concepts of Security

As we move through history from the end of the Second World War through the Cold

War to the present post-Cold War era it is notable that our conception of what constitutes

security has expanded. Traditionally national security was defined in terms of state or

regime security from threats by other state actors. This meant the military element of

national power played a dominant role in national security policy. Alliances were formed

to provide collective security.

The notion of national security in Southeast Asia, as I have noted, has always been

predominantly internal in orientation. In our region the traditional paradigm of national

security was altered by the adoption of a new paradigm called comprehensive security.


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During the 1970s and mid-1980s, Indonesia and Malaysia both enunciated doctrines of

comprehensive security. Let me provide a brief overview of each country:

In 1973 Indonesias National Defence Board drew up a Guideline for State Policy which

borrowed from the doctrine of Total Peoples Defense and Security. The 1973 Guideline

identified economic development as Indonesias top priority and introduced the concept

of national resilience. The Guideline also spelled out a comprehensive multidimensional

approach to security that included ideological, political, economic, socio-cultural and

security-defense. Later Indonesia enunciated the concept of regional resilience embracing

membership in the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and endorsing the

concepts of a Zone of Peace Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) and a nuclear weapons

free zone in Southeast Asia.

During the 1980s the term comprehensive security crept into Malaysias political

vocabulary. In March 1984, for example, Datuk Musa Hitam spoke of Malaysias

doctrine of comprehensive security. Two years later, Prime Minister Mahathir stated that

security is not just a matter of military capability and national security is inseparable

from political stability, economic success and social harmony. In July 1986, former

prime minister Tun Hussein Onn noted in a speech: national security is dependent on the

satisfaction of two very basic conditions. First, there must be a tolerable level of harmony

between individual security, group security and national security Second, our external

environment must be made conducive and supportive of internal political and

socioeconomic development [problems facing Malaysia] traverse political, socio-

cultural, psychological and economic dimensions thus emphasizing the total or

comprehensive nature of Malaysias national security.


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Let me note briefly that Japan adopted a doctrine of comprehensive security in the late

1970s. The doctrine of common security made its appearance in Europe in the early

1980s, while Canada advanced the notion of cooperative security nearly a decade later.

The final security paradigm that I would like to mention is that of human security. The

end of the Cold War, rapid economic growth in a number of countries, and the spread of

global communications, has resulted in what Samuel Huntington has called a Third

Wave of democratization in the Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea, Mongolia, Thailand,

Indonesia and Cambodia. Many of these transitions to democracy have not yet been

consolidated. The point I am trying to make is that economic growth has resulted in the

emergence of a middle class and what is termed civil society. Civil society refers to the

emergence of a wide variety of local groups that are autonomous from the state, including

non-government organizations (NGOs). These associations embrace a wide variety of

issues but are most prominent for their advocacy of civil and human rights. This

development has led to the emergence of the latest security paradigm that of human

security.

Up until this point my entire presentation has implied that the state is a legitimate

political form and that violent challenges to its authority are illegitimate. But what about

the case of totalitarian states like that of the Khmer Rouge, or authoritarian states such as

Suhartos New Order that decimated the Communist Party of Indonesia and its supporters

and sympathizers? What about repressive military regimes in Burma and Thailand? Is it

legitimate to take up arms against these states?

Advocates of human security argue that the duty of the state is to provide for the security

of all its citizens from threats of all kinds, such as state violence, not just external military


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threats. Human security is concerned the totality of factors that can affect the well being

of all individuals women and men, the aged and the young, ethnic minorities, poor and

rich. Human security is generally focused on multiple risks arising from economic

insecurity, environmental threats, social disintegration, and human processes such as

large-scale refugee movements and pandemics. The advocates of human security argue

that international organizations such as the United Nations as well as local community

groups should be involved in providing human security in complex humanitarian

emergencies. Rizal Sukuma, an influential advisor in Indonesia, has written, an ASEAN

Security Community should balance its concern over state security with a greater

emphasis on human security.11

To sum up, the theme I have been trying to develop is: our conceptualization of national

security has enlarged over the past five decades from security against external aggression

to common security, comprehensive security, cooperative security and human security.

While the role of the military still remains central for the provision of national defence,

the expanded definition of security has resulted in the involvement of many more

government departments and agencies than before. In some cases, the armed forces have

been assigned to carry out non-traditional tasks as part of a countrys approach to

providing comprehensive security. This may have implications for regional members of

the FPDA.

Transnational Threats

Our conceptualization of what constitutes a challenge or a threat to security has also

undergone a similar redefinition. These new security threats are mainly transnational in

11Rizal Sukma, The Future of ASEAN: Towards a Security Community, Paper presented to the seminar

on ASEAN Cooperation: Challenges and Prospects in the Current International Situation, New York, June

3, 2003, 4.


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nature and are generated primarily by non-state actors. The list of what constitutes a

transnational threat to security is ever enlarging. But for our purposes let me identify the

most prominent: illegal drug smuggling, trafficking in small arms, people smuggling (for

slavery, sexual slavery), illegal migration, environmental pollution and terrorism. It is

notable that several transnational threats are found together in conflict zones.

The non-state actors involved include warlords, criminal gangs, criminal syndicates, and

terrorist groups. In some instances non-state actors may receive the support of a rogue

state or support from one state organization, such as the military or intelligence service.

The activities of non-state actors often overlap and there is a close connection between

criminals, black marketers, drug lords, arms dealers, zealots and terrorists.12

Transnational threats by definition affect more than one state and are generally beyond

the capacity of any one state to address. For example, no one country can effectively halt

the illegal drug trade originating in Afghanistan or the Golden Triangle in Southeast Asia.

Transnational security challenges increasingly require an interagency approach at

national level and cooperative efforts internationally. Non-state actors attempt to exploit

the seams where different agencies come together.

Some critics have argued that the inclusion of transnational threats in our definition of

security has so stretched the concept of security that it has become meaningless from a

defence point of view. Or to express this objection more colourfully, you cant stop

HIV/AIDS from spreading by putting a condom on your bayonet.

I would argue that the broadening definition of what constitutes security has implications

for the armed forces of each country, both domestically and externally. Transnational



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threats, to use an expression coined by Lt. Gen. Hank Stackpole, the president of the Asia

Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii, is like rust eating away at the fabric of

society. Transnational threats threaten the legitimacy of a state by undermining the rule

of law and good governance. Warlords and criminals corrupt state officials (politicians,

police and the judiciary) through bribery. Not so long ago the nexus between drug

traffickers and Cambodian officials led to that country being called a narco-state.

The professionalism of the military may be undermined by its involvement in money-

making activities such as providing protection, marijuana production, illegal timber

exports, smuggling and the sale of weapons and equipment to non-state actors.

Transnational threats divert and consume resources that could be put to better purposes.

This undermines the capacity of the state to efficiently meet the needs of its citizens. The

combined effects of these forces may serve to weaken a state to the point where it

becomes a failing or failed state. Non-state actors take advantage of weak or failing states

for refuge and they exploit the discontent of the local population for support. Weak,

failing and failed states negatively impact on their neighbours and the neighbourhood.

Finally, to round off this discussion of transnational threats and security, nothing I have

said is meant in any way to suggest that armed forces or the military have no utility in the

new security environment. While the post-Cold War security situation in Latin America

led one country to disband its military entirely, the security environment in Southeast

Asia is not so conducive. There are a number of unresolved territorial and maritime

boundary disputes. I would not go so far as to argue that there is an arms race in the

region; but I would submit that the arms procurement policies of some states have led to

the introduction of what could be considered offensive platforms. At the very least there


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is no effective arms control regime in Southeast Asia. There is still disagreement in the

region about the long-term implications of Chinas rising military power. And finally,

some non-state actors are continually at war with the state and violence is a way of

life.13

Several states, such as Burma and the Philippines, face low intensity conflicts by

relatively large armed groups. The Moro Islamic Liberation Front in the Philippines may

have 10,000 persons under arms, for example. Conventional military forces still have a

role to play.

Sources of Asymmetric Threat

The most important source of asymmetric threat to the state in Southeast Asia today

comes not from the aggressive actions of another country but from regionally and

internationally networked terrorist groups.14 Before discussing this subject I would like to

diverge slightly to discuss some new research on the root causes of terrorism.

It is often argued by regional leaders that the root causes of terrorism are to be found in

underdevelopment and poverty and/or U.S. policies in the Middle East (support for Israel,

and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq). I would say that while these factors may

contribute to the mobilization of terrorists, they are not its root causes.

For the sake of discussion I would like to draw your attention to the research findings

published by Michael Mousseau and Audrey Kurth Cronin.15 Mousseau argues that the


14James Wise, Australian High Commissioner to Malaysia, quoted by Leslie Lau, FPDA to focus on anti-

terror tactics, The Straits Times, May 28, 2003 and Robert Hill, Minister of Defence, Regional Terrorism,

Global Security and the Defence of Australia, RUSI Triennial International Seminar, National Convention

Centre, Canberra, October 9, 2003, 1.15

Michael Mousseau, Market Civilizations and its Clash with Terror,International Security , 27(3),

Winter 2002/03, 5-29 and Audrey Kurth Cronin, Behind the Curve: Globalization and International

Terrorism,International Security , 27(3), Winter 2002/03, 30-58.


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social origins of terror are rooted in the values and beliefs associated with the mixed

economies of developing countries in a globalizing world.16 Mousseau draws attention

to the prevalence of patron-client relations in developing mixed economies and the values

and expectations these relations generate. Patrons provide goods, services and protection

while clients provide labour and other forms of support. Globalization breaks this

relationship. But it is not the clients those on the bottom rung of the economic ladder

who lose the most. It is the patrons and their lieutenants who hold privileged positions in

the old clientalist hierarchies. This is why leaders of terrorist organizations frequently

come from privileged backgrounds.

17

Mousseau goes on to argue that Muslim rage over U.S. policies in the Middle East has

deeper roots than just identification with Islam. He states: the underlying cause is not

Islam but rather a deeply embedded antimarket and thus anti-American passion a fury

that extends beyond the Islamic world and whose origins are not understood even by

those espousing hatred for the West.18 Globalization is the cause because it not only

erodes the patron-client relationship but introduces new values that are at odds with the

values of clientalism a lack of empathy for out-groups, an emphasis on community

over the individual, and an incomprehension for objective truth and individual

innocence.19

In a separate study Cronin takes a broad historical view of terrorism and argues that its

main drivers were decolonization and globalization. The breakup of empires,

decolonization and leftist anti-Westernism produced three waves of terrorism. The

16Mousseau, Market Civilizations and its Clash with Terror, 6.





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current wave of international terrorism, characterized by unpredictable and

unprecedented threats from nonstate actors, not only is a reaction to globalization, but is

facilitated by it, she argues.20 Globalization has produced a fourth wave of religiously

inspired terrorism. But, she concludes, even though the newest international terrorist

threat , emanating largely from Muslim countries, has more than a modicum of religious

inspiration, it is more accurate to see it as part of a larger phenomenon of

antiglobalization and tension between the have and nave-not nations.21

I have made this slight diversion to illustrate that the root causes of terrorism cannot be

eliminated quickly and the impact of globalization will continually be felt in Southeast

Asia. We live in a region where Indonesia and the Philippines, not to mention Myanmar

and Cambodia, could easily weaken and become failing states.

Terrorism

While there is no internationally agreed definition of terrorism, the United Nations lists

three organizations as terrorist groups: al Qaeda, Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and Jemaah

Islamiyah (JI). This forms the legal and normative basis for counter-terrorism by the

international community.

Al Qaeda

During the period of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan (December 1979-February

1989) hundreds of Muslims from Southeast Asia were drawn to Pakistan where they

received religious indoctrination and military training. Some even crossed over into

Afghanistan and fought with the mujihadeen. A few high level al Qaeda operatives, such

as Ramzi Yousef and Hambali, made their way to Southeast Asia to forge links with local

20Cronin, Behind the Curve: Globalization and International Terrorism, 30.

21Cronin, Behind the Curve: Globalization and International Terrorism, 35.


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militant groups and to offer training in terrorist techniques including explosives. Other al

Qaeda operatives used Southeast Asia as a venue for planning terrorist attacks against the

United States.

During the Soviet occupation period, personal ties were forged between the leaders of al

Qaeda and the Abu Sayyaf Group, Moro Islamic Liberation Front and Jemaah Islamiyah.

When Southeast Asia jihadist veterans returned home some became active in local

militant groups. More Southeast Asian recruits continued to be sent to Afghanistan after

1989. The linkages between al Qaeda and local militant groups represented a new stage

in the development of new terrorism in the region. New terrorism is a term used to

denote the emergence of internationally networked mass casualty terrorist groups.

The U.S. attack on the Taliban regime, the occupation of Afghanistan and the prosecution

of the global war on terrorism has greatly degraded al Qaedas effectiveness and severed

many of its effective links in the region. It is difficult to know whether al Qaeda

maintains its own separate cell structure in the region.22 It seems likely that al Qaeda

operatives have turned to professional terrorism as a career and have thrown in their lot

with local militant organizations.

Jemaah Islamiyah

The most potent terrorist group in the region is Jemaah Islamiyah (JI); it pursues both a

global Islamist and local political goals. JI is headed by an amir. He heads four councils

with responsibility for governing; religion, discipline andfatwa.23

Beneath this structure

lies four mantiqis covering territorial administration.Mantiqi 1 covered Malaysia and

22Hill, Regional Terrorism, Global Security and the Defence of Australia, 3, argues the links between JI

and Al Qaeda are less clear.23

International Crisis Group,Jemaah Islamiyah in Southeast Asia: Damaged But Still Dangerous, ICG

Asia Report No. 63, Jakarta and Brussels: August 26, 2003, 11.


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Singapore; mantiqi 2 covered most of Indonesia; mantiqi 3 included Mindanao, Sabah

and Sulawesi; and mantiqi four covered Papua and Australia. Each mantiqi was divided

into districts (wakalah) and cells (fiah). The Malaysian cell established linkages with

Kumpulan Militan/Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM).24

The JI attempted to forge a regional coalition of like-mined groups under the name of

Rabitatul Mujahidin.25

Representatives from JI, MILF and militant groups from Aceh,

Sulawesi, southern Thailand, and Myanmar reportedly attended the first meeting.

Rabitatul Mujahidin met three times in Malaysia between 1999 and late 2000. The recent

arrest of Hambali indicates that JI had cells in Cambodia and Thailand.

A recent study of the JI by the International Crisis Group dated August 26 th 2003 states:

New information suggests that JI was deliberately set up as a military

organization and that the division into units known as mantiqis and wakalahs

originally defined as districts and subdistricts was actually a territorial

command structure of brigades, battalions, companies, platoons and squads. 26

The ISG report notes that all senior members of JI trained in Afghanistan in the late

1980s and early 1990s. It was from among these Afghan alumni that instructors were

picked to set up a terrorist training camp in Mindanao from 1996-2000 in cooperation

with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. The ISG put the JIs strength at 2,000; the hard

core may number between 300-500.27 The ISG Report also identified a JI special

operations unit, Laskar Khos. Another disturbing feature of the ISG report is the

24Zachary Abuza, Tentacles of Terror: Al Qaedas Southeast Asian Network, Contemporary Southeast

Asia, 24(3), December 2002, 453-454.25

Abuza, Tentacles of Terror: Al Qaedas Southeast Asian Network, 459.26

International Crisis Group,Jemaah Islamiyah in Southeast Asia: Damaged But Still Dangerous, i.27

International Crisis Group,Jemaah Islamiyah in Southeast Asia: Damaged But Still Dangerous, and Hill,

Regional Terrorism, Global Security and the Defence of Australia, 2.


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identification of new terrorist groups in Indonesia as well as the linkages between JI and

criminal thugs (preman).

This abbreviated account points to a regional terrorist network that is able to recruit, train,

raise funds and provide logistics support for operations throughout Southeast Asia. MILF

cadres have been implicated in terrorist bombings in Indonesia. JI members recruited in

Malaysia reportedly fought in Sulawesi when conflict broke out between Christians and

Muslims.

The JI network planned terrorist attacks on foreign targets in Malaysia and Singapore

including diplomatic missions, U.S. service personnel, and a U.S. warship. Their target

lists also included MINDEF HQ in Singapore, a radar near Changi Airport and the Caltex

Oil Company offices. There were also reports that terrorists considered attacking the

water supply system between Malaysia and Singapore in order to sow discord between

them.

Action by Malaysian and Singaporean security authorities in late 2001 and subsequently

shut down the JI. But key fugitives remain loose. 28 This means that terrorist groups

located outside Malaysia and Singapore could plan and execute terrorist attacks inside

Singapore and Malaysia. Such terrorist attacks could be mounted by a combined force of

JI and extremists from the MILF, Abu Sayyaf Group and other terrorist groups.

Southeast Asia faces other transnational threats in the form of criminal syndicates and

gangs who engage in smuggling small arms and traffic in people and illegal drugs.

Southern Thailand and Cambodia have been identified as the source for much of the

28Hill, Regional Terrorism, Global Security and the Defence of Australia, 3.


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small arms smuggling in the region including to rebels in Aceh. Small arms pass through

Indonesia to the southern Philippines.

Finally, I would mention the prevalence of piracy in Southeast Asia.29 This term is used

loosely in the literature and includes criminal acts on the high sea as well as robbery and

hijackings in ports and territorial waters. While most piracy appears local, there are

notable instances when international groups hijack a ship, repaint and renumber it and

sell its cargo in a distant port. There is at least one reported instance of GAM rebels in

Indonesia hijacking a supply ship in the straits. As Malaysias Deputy Prime Minister

noted recently, the maritime transport system has become particularly vulnerable to being

targeted or exploited by terrorists.30

III. FPDA and Asymmetric Threats

All of this discussion now brings me to the matter at hand: the FPDA and asymmetric

threats. The FPDA was formed in 1971 as a result of the exchange of bilateral notes

between its five members. The FPDA was formed in a specific context: the withdrawal of

British forces east of Suez, the end of confrontation with Indonesia, and withdrawal of

U.S. military forces from mainland Southeast Asia.

The core of the FPDA was IADS the Integrated Air Defence System, headquartered at

Butterworth. The FPDA remains today the only functioning multilateral military

arrangement in the region that is operational.

What is remarkable is that the FPDA has survived for so long and slowly evolved in the

process. There was a period when British naval forces were absent from air defence and

29Matthew W. Flint, The Timor Sea Joint Petroleum Development Area and Gas Resources: The Defence

Implications, Working Paper No. 13, Canberra: Sea Power Centre Australia, 2003, 28-30.30

Quoted in Nik Amran Abdullah, Measures to protect shipping lanes from terrorism,New Straits Times,

October 7, 2003.


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maritime exercises (Lima Bersatu) in the decade prior to 1988.31

Australia moved from

stationing aircraft at Butterworth and shifted to a policy of rotation. New Zealand ground

forces were withdrawn from Singapore. In the late 1980s the FPDA was revived. The

most recent development is the expansion from air defence to area defence.32

Today we have been asked to explore how the how the Five Power Defence

Arrangements might adapt to address asymmetric threats or consider options to build

upon the existing cooperation between FPDA members to enhance their individual and

collective ability to deal with emerging asymmetric threats.33 My instructions today were

not to answer this question but to provide the background or scene setting for your

syndicate discussions.

In order to assist these discussions let me briefly address multilateral institutions that

have security roles and how these roles have changed over time. This might provide some

useful background for our consideration of the FPDA.

The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) is the only Asia-Pacific wide security body. It has

set itself the goals of building confidence, preventive diplomacy and elaborating

approaches to conflict resolution. Although much progress has been made in confidence

building measures, several key areas remain: a regional arms register and steps at arms

control. A mechanism has been set up for the ARF to exercise preventive diplomacy but

31Khoo How San, The Five Power Defence Arrangements: If It Aint Broke, paper presented to

ASEAN Regional Forum Professional Development Programme, Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei, April 23-28, 2000.32

The FPDA ministers redesignated the HQ Integrated Air Defence System (IADS) to Integrated Area

Defence System at a meeting held in Singapore, July 3, 2000.33

According to Malaysias Defence Minister, Najib Razak, the [FPDA] ministers agreed we should look at

non-conventional forms of threats, in particular global terrorism, piracy and illegal immigrants The

ministers agreed that external threats in the conventional form have diminished. Najib also noted that the

shift in emphasis to terrorism did not mean the FPDA will be involved in operational terms but we are

looking at joint training, intelligence sharing and capacity building; quoted in Agence France Presse,

Five-power defence group shifts focus to terrorism, June 2, 2003, found in SpaceWar.com.


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this has not been utilized. A regional center that could give early warning of likely

conflict has yet to be established. The ARF has not moved to meet its third goal of

conflict resolution because of the extreme sensitivity to sovereignty by China and other

members.

The ARF works closely with a track 2 body known as CSCAP Council for Security

Cooperation in Asia Pacific. CSCAP is a non-governmental body consisting of the

regions leading think tanks. It makes recommendations to senior ARF officials. A study

of CSCAPs agenda over recent years indicates that it has become increasingly

preoccupied with new security issues transnational threat. So too has the Asia-Pacific

Round Table organized annually by ISIS-Malaysia. There is very little evidence,

however, that this preoccupation has altered the ARF agenda which focuses on traditional

threats.

APEC the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum was originally set up to

encourage trade liberalization. It is not a security body per se but there is initiatives to

have national leaders discuss security issues at APEC summits. Such discussions took

place at the APEC summit in New Zealand in 1999 and were crucial for laying the

groundwork for UN-sanctioned intervention in East Timor.

ASEAN is not a security body either but it has slowly moved to put security issues on its

agenda. At the recent 9th Summit in Bali, ASEAN adopted a Declaration of ASEAN

Concord II that endorsed the concept of an ASEAN Security Community. Let me quote

from this document:

The ASEAN Security Community, recognizing the sovereign right of the member

countries to pursue their individual foreign policies and defence arrangements and


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taking into account the strong interconnections among political, economic and

social realities, subscribes to the principle of comprehensive security as having

broad political, economic, social and cultural aspects in consonance with the

ASEAN Vision 2020 rather than a defence pact, military alliance or a joint

foreign policy

Maritime issues and concerns are transboundary in nature, and therefore shall be

addressed regionally in holistic , integrated and comprehensive manner. Maritime

cooperation between and among ASEAN member countries shall contribute to the

evolution of the ASEAN Security Community

The ASEAN Security Community shall fully utilize the existing institutions and

mechanisms within ASEAN with a view to strengthening national and regional

capacities to counter terrorism, drug trafficking, trafficking in persons and other

transnational crimes; and shall work to ensure that the Southeast Asian Region

remains free of all weapons of mass destruction. It shall enable ASEAN to

demonstrate a greater capacity and responsibility of being the primary driving

force of the ARF.34

The Shangri-la Dialogue is an annual informal meeting of like-minded defence ministers

from around the region brought together by the International Institute of Strategic Studies

(IISS) based in London. The Shangri-la Dialogue has discussed terrorism and

consequence management of mass casualty attacks. It is my assessment that the Shangri-

la Dialogue took off because there was no comparable regional venue for defence

34Extracts from paragraphs 2, 5 and 10, Declaration of ASEAN Concord II (Bali Concord II), October 7,

2003.


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ministers or their representatives. ASEAN Defence Ministers, for example, do not met

for substantial discussions on an annual basis as do many of their cabinet colleagues.

The FPDA is one of a number of regional multilateral institutions contributing to regional

peace and stability. It is set within an international and regional context where the

definition of what constitutes security is being enlarged to include many non-traditional

threats. These threats are overwhelmingly transnational, in that they affect more than one

country, and find their origins in the actions of non-state actors. Modern day criminal

syndicates and groups that sponsor new terrorism can shift their geographical base. They

are hard to detect and deter. This raises the question how the FPDA might adopt to these

changing circumstances as have other multilateral regional bodies.

Transnational threats are dealt with by national government usually through a whole of

government approach involving interagency committees or task forces. Many more

organs of government are involved now engaged in this task (police, intelligence, foreign

affairs, defence, immigration, customs, quarantine services etc.). National governments

are very protective of their sovereignty. Yet they must cooperate with other states to

address new transnational threats.

In Southeast Asia the threat of new terrorism has generated many forms of cooperative

responses. At the initiative of the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and several other

regional states have agreed to cooperate against terrorism. APEC, ARF and ASEAN have

all adopted declarations of policy to counter terrorism. ASEAN and the United States

have signed a Memorandum of Understanding. Australia and several countries have

likewise signed an MOU on cooperation against terrorism.


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Let me suggest that new terrorism is the main threat to regional security. Consider the

following scenarios:

The targeting of FPDA assets including IADS HQ, naval ships and aircraft onFPDA exercises or in ports. Terrorists could employ car bombs, shoulder held

surface-to-air missiles35 or explosive laden zodiac-type craft.

The targeting of western businesses or interests in Malaysia or Singapore byterrorist groups using biological, chemical, or radiological weapons.36 How would

the consequences of such a catastrophe be managed?

The use of a tanker by a terrorist group as a mass casualty weapon or a weapondesigned to bring about economic dislocation as part of a broader campaign of

destabilization.

Terrorist groups targeting Singapore (or Kuala Lumpur) as an economic hubusing cyber war in order to achieve global effects.

The attempt by Islamist terrorists to sow discord by focusing attacks andpropaganda on U.S. allies in the FPDA.

Malaysia and Singapore bear the responsibility for reacting to these incidents and seeking

cooperation from countries of their choice. All I would like to raise is the question of how

35The Electronic Warfare & Informational Operations Association estimates that there are 500,000

shoulder launched SAMs in circulation globally. U.S. intelligence estimates that 7,000 SAMs are on the

black market and that 27 terrorist groups have acquired SAMs. Over the last two decades it has been

estimated that between 29-40 civilian aircraft have been subject to SAM attack. See: Patrick Goodenough,Australia Mulls Terrorist Missile Threat to Airlines, CNSNews.com, September 5, 2003 and Associated

Press, Missile fears for Bangkok airport, The Straits Times Interactive, September 8, 2003.36

Australias Incident Response Regiment has conducted joint training in chemical, biological and

radiological response with Singapore; Hill, Regional Terrorism, Global Security and the Defence of

Australia, 5. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the number of nuclear material

smuggling cases rose dramatically in Turkey, the Caucasus and Central Asia in 2001. During the period

1993-01, more than a hundred attempts to smuggle nuclear material into Turkey were discovered. See:

Representative Ellen Tauscher, Countering the New Asymmetric Threats, Blueprint Magazine,

November 15, 2001, found at New Democrats Online, NDOL.org.


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if at all should the FPDA adjust its activities to meet these and other transnational threats.

Should there be changes in how information and intelligence is handled and

communicated? Should joint training activities and exercises be designed to incorporate a

multilateral response in specified circumstances, such as counter-terrorism? What

activities can be undertaken to improve capacity building counter-hijack, hostage

recovery, consequent management, military law?

IV. Conclusion

Asymmetric threats are here to stay. They will be employed by internationally and

regionally-based non-state actors, mainly criminal syndicates and terrorist groups. A

military response alone is not the most effective way of dealing with such threats. A

multidimensional integrated response is necessary and it should include a defence

element.

The rise of asymmetric threats and asymmetric warfare is taking place within the context

of a broadening of the definition of what constitutes security by nation-states and regional

organizations. In Southeast Asia the new security paradigm is one of comprehensive

security.

New threats to security are transnational in nature and involve the actions by non-state

actors and sometimes the support of rogue states. The issue of transnational threats

naturally has led some states to consider the role of the armed forces in meeting them.

Southeast Asians are proud to note that since the foundation of ASEAN in 1967 no

member of the organization has gone to war with another member. At the same time, the

likelihood of state-on-state conflict is receding globally if not regionally.


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In these circumstances can the long experience of multilateral cooperation fostered by the

FPDA be adjusted or refocused to meet these new challenges? Can the FPDA serve as a

model for other regional security endeavours? Should the geographic scope of FPDA

exercises be expanded to include the states of eastern Malaysia? Should the FPDA

contemplate expanding its membership by including Brunei at some time in the future?

I would now like to conclude by offering some thoughts on two issues to assist you in

your syndicate discussions. These are drawn from the article written by Colin Gray cited

earlier.37

1. How do asymmetric threats work? Asymmetric threats work by:

defeating our strategic imagination posing possible menaces so awful and awesome that countries dare not respond,

at least not until actual experience provides incontrovertible evidence of the threat

challenging successfully our ability to respond effectively acting against what appear to be our strengths.

2. What factors should shape our response? Factors shaping our response include:

Asymmetric threats cannot be predicted in the sense that we cannot protecteverything that is at risk.

We tend to focus on the most recent event and project it forward. But theuncertainties are too great.

Nevertheless we should be able to identify and therefore plan how to protectagainst the kind of threats that would do us most harm.

37Gray, Thinking Asymmetrically in Times of Terror, 8-13.


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We need to be alert to the possibility that asymmetric threats can wreak theirgreatest damage through ill-judged measures of response that we choose to

undertake.

We need to identify and think hard about threats to which we lack obviousresponses.

What do our adversaries value highly, and how can we threaten or hurt thosevalues?

Thank you.

Thayer Asymmetric Threat & Southeast Asia

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