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Thawing of Permafrost Peatland and Thawing of Permafrost Peatland and Hydrological ImplicationsHydrological Implications
Masaki HayashiMasaki Hayashi11, Bill Quinton, Bill Quinton22, Alastair McClymont, Alastair McClymont11, , Larry BentleyLarry Bentley11, Brendan Christensen, Brendan Christensen11
11Geoscience, University of CalgaryGeoscience, University of Calgary22Geography & Env. Studies, Wilfrid Laurier UniversityGeography & Env. Studies, Wilfrid Laurier University
Prediction of Permafrost Thaw, 1990-2090
pink: complete thawing
Model Assumptions• Vertical energy transfer• Large (50 km) grids•No lateral flow of water and energy
Zhang et al. (2008. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35: L02502)
Similar to MESH, but the moving FT is the challenge.
Coupled Permafrost-Hydrology Model for Circular Peat Plateau
Northern Ecosystem Soil Temperature (NEST) modelZhang et al. (2008)
vertical transfer
Simple Fill and Spill Hydrology (SFASH) modelWright et al. (2009)
lateral drainage
NEST-SFASH Preliminary Resultsfr
ost
tab
le (
m) 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8simulatedobserved
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D2009 2010
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runoff
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D2009 2010
0
20
40 rainsnow melt
wat
er f
lux
(mm
/d)
L
LL
LL
L
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L
Challenges and the Way Forward1. Storage and flow of runoff water in the fen-bog
network Basin-scale hydrological model.
2. Incorporate lateral thawing of permafrost in long-term model simulation (e.g. 50 years).
3. Ecology-hydrology feedback processes.
IP3 Legacy1. Scotty Creek research basin
2. Close collaboration with the local First Nation.
3. WLU-Northwest Territories Partnership for Research and Training (2010-2020, $10M project).
PeopleNicole Wright, Laura Chasmer, Chris Hopkinson, Tyler Veness, Rob Schincariol, and many others
FundingIP3 NetworkInternational Polar YearNatural Sciences and Engineering Research CouncilCanada Research Chair ProgramEnvironment Canada Science Horizons Program
Logistical Support Water Survey of CanadaEnvironment Canada (NWRI)Liidlii Kue First Nations