Thailand’s Export Opportunities : Decision Support Model Approach Pimchanok Vonkhorporn Minister (Commercial) Head of Office of Commercial Affairs Royal Thai Embassy, Brussels 20 September 2012 For EIAS Seminar, Brussels
Dec 17, 2015
Thailand’s Export Opportunities :
Decision Support Model Approach
Pimchanok VonkhorpornMinister (Commercial)
Head of Office of Commercial Affairs Royal Thai Embassy, Brussels
20 September 2012
For EIAS Seminar, Brussels
DSM Discussion (1)• General comments :
– Practical and simple methodology but requires database to be utilized by public • More detailed explanation in the actual
paper would enable better understanding
– Data a bit outdated, leading to slightly ambiguous outcomes
– Similar to Thailand’s FTA selection but more academically sound
– Will be useful as general guidelines not only for export promotion but for trade negotiations as well
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• Methodology and Outcomes– Methodology quite straightforward
• Products selected after Filters 3.1 and 3.2 should be derivation of “intersection”, not “union”
– Weighted calculation yields better results– Most outcomes are in line with Thailand’s
export situation – Some results will be helpful in identifying
potential markets and products eg. not enough agro-based products• But whether some should be promoted or
not must be further studied especially products which Thailand has to import raw materials eg. Oil
DSM Discussion (2)
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• Further improvements in the paper– Filters : some are not clearly explained eg.
Market penetration is based on what factors – Trade restrictions : how to quantify or just
taken them into account especially NTBs • Ability to export to that market doesn’t
always mean that it has no restrictions but exporting countries may have adapted
– Other indexes : can other indexes be included in future model to screen further countries eg., IMD competitiveness index, WB Ease of Doing Business
– More readily available database will make the model more useful for development countries
DSM Discussion (3)
Thailand’s Exports 2011
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$23,870 mil$21,784 mil
$24,158 mil
$54,045 mil$72,471 mil
EU 10.8%
ASEAN 24.28%
USA 9.8%
Japan 10.7%
Others 32.56%
China 11.8%
$26,251 mil
Source : Ministry of Commerce and Customs Department, 2011
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Major export items• Computers and parts (7.7%)• Motor cars, parts and acc. (7.6%)• Rubber (5.7%)• Gems and jewellery (5.5%)• Refined oil (4.5%)• Plastic pellets (4%)
Major import items• Crude oil (14.4%)• Machinery and parts (8.7%)• Gems, stones, silver, gold(8.7%)• Chemicals(6.5%)• Iron & steel products (6.1%)• Electrical machinery & parts (5.8%)
US$ 222.5 billion
US$ 228.8 billion
Current account balance
= 3.4% of GDP
Year 2011
Source: Ministry of Commerce, Customs Department, tradingeconomics.com 2011
TOP TEN TRADING PARTNERS (2011)
Value (mil. USD) Growth (%)
Balance (mil. USD)
1. Japan 66,076 13.4 -18,335
2. China 56,752 24.15 -4,250
3. USA 35,177 13.92 8,390
4. Malaysia 24,730 16.13 68
5. Singapore 19,212 25.55 3,634
6. Indonesia 17,454 33.86 2,702
7. UAE 17,231 48.20 -11,707
8. Australia 15,945 34.52 50
9. HKC 14.292 28.73 9,613
10. S. Korea 13,793 18.18 -4,638
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Source: Ministry of Commerce and Customs Department, 2011
ASEAN
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One ASEAN at the Heart of Dynamic Asia‘
’
THAILAND’S FTAs
USA
ASEAN-EU Thai-
EFTA
PendingApproval
Chile
Under Study
ASEAN-GCC
ASEAN-MERCOSUR
BIMSTEC
OngoingNegotiations
FTAsin Force
ASEAN-IndiaThai-India
ASEAN-JapanJTEPA
ASEAN-China
ASEAN-Korea
ASEAN-CERThai-Australia
Thai-New Zealand
Peru
Thai-EU
ASEAN AEC
Suspended
RCEP
InvestmentOpportunities
AEC as a
Single Marketand Production
Base(economies of
scale, large markets, etc)
RegionalPlatform and Building blocs
BIMSTECASEAN+3ASEAN+6
RCEPFTAAP?
Connecting Asia and the World
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES:
Partnership BuildingInvestmentOpportunities
Sectors
Auto and partsMachineryChemical
Food & BiotechHealthcare
Alt./Ren. EnergyEnvironment
Logistics
Economic Corridor NSEC (North-South Economic Corridor)
Thailand-Myanmar-Lao-China
EWEC (East-West Economic Corridor)Myanmar-Thailand-Lao-Vietnam
Southern Economic CorridorThailand-Cambodia-Vietnam
Connectivity
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How can Thailand capitalise on her location and endowment?