1 Thai Politics Updates – July 2011 Foreign affairs Comments on the Thai General Election This month‟s attention was entirely focused on the general election, held on the 3 rd of July. During the lead-up to the election, calls for free and fair elections voiced by both international and national actors were widely echoed in the media. When it comes to the election outcomes, views and commentaries from foreign embassies and foreign media were unanimously positive. On the Thai scene, except for the tiny minority supporting the no-vote campaign, Pheua Thai‟s victory was accepted by all, including the losing Democrat Party and its former coalition partner the Bhumjaithai party, creating the conditions for political stability after a two-year period of daily street protests and yearly bloodsheds. Whether or not this foreseen stability is going to last enough time to allow the government to build national reconciliation remains unanswered. International organizations like the UN or the European Union stressed the importance of the elections and especially the acceptance of election outcomes vis a vis peace and reconciliation in Thailand. Prior to the election, United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon had indeed called for the election to be conducted peacefully and in a "fair, credible and transparent" and urged all parties to refrain from violence before, during and after Sunday's the election and, especially relevant to the Thai context, "to accept and respect the will of the people as expressed at the ballot box". After the election, he welcomed its outcome, noting "the orderly conduct" of the elections ". “The elections mark an important step towards genuine reconciliation, long-term stability and consolidation of democratic norms in the country" Ban Ki-Moon said. The European Union also welcomed the election process. " I wish to congratulate the Thai people on the orderly way in which the elections on 3 July have been carried out. The EU hopes that the outcome of these elections will provide a solid basis for all political interests to unite in addressing the major political and social issues facing Thailand in the medium term. This, in turn, will help advance Thailand's relations with the European Union and will reinvigorate Thailand's key role in ASEAN and on the world stage " (Statement by EU High Representative Catherine Ashton on the election in Thailand, 3/7/11, Brussels, A261/11) The United States also congratulated Thai people for their "robust participation" in the July 3 election. "The choice of who will lead Thailand now rests with those representatives elected by the Thai people. Washington looks forward to working with the next Thai government, the opposition, and non-partisan civilians "to broaden and strengthen our alliance, which is based on shared values and mutual respect" (Press Statement, Victoria Nuland, Department Spokesperson, Office of the Spokesperson, Washington, DC, July 3, 2011). Association of Southeast Asian Nations secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan issued a statement on July 4 congratulating Ms Yingluck on her impressive victory. The overwhelming support and clear mandate should help form a solid foundation for her leadership, Mr Surin said.
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Thai Politics Updates – July 2011
Foreign affairs
Comments on the Thai General Election This month‟s attention was entirely focused on the general election, held on the 3
rd of July.
During the lead-up to the election, calls for free and fair elections voiced by both
international and national actors were widely echoed in the media. When it comes to the
election outcomes, views and commentaries from foreign embassies and foreign media were
unanimously positive. On the Thai scene, except for the tiny minority supporting the no-vote
campaign, Pheua Thai‟s victory was accepted by all, including the losing Democrat Party and
its former coalition partner the Bhumjaithai party, creating the conditions for political
stability after a two-year period of daily street protests and yearly bloodsheds.
Whether or not this foreseen stability is going to last enough time to allow the government to
build national reconciliation remains unanswered.
International organizations like the UN or the European Union stressed the importance of the
elections and especially the acceptance of election outcomes vis a vis peace and
reconciliation in Thailand.
Prior to the election, United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon had indeed called for the
election to be conducted peacefully and in a "fair, credible and transparent" and urged all
parties to refrain from violence before, during and after Sunday's the election and, especially
relevant to the Thai context, "to accept and respect the will of the people as expressed at the
ballot box". After the election, he welcomed its outcome, noting "the orderly conduct" of the
elections ". “The elections mark an important step towards genuine reconciliation, long-term
stability and consolidation of democratic norms in the country" Ban Ki-Moon said.
The European Union also welcomed the election process. " I wish to congratulate the Thai
people on the orderly way in which the elections on 3 July have been carried out. The EU
hopes that the outcome of these elections will provide a solid basis for all political interests to
unite in addressing the major political and social issues facing Thailand in the medium term.
This, in turn, will help advance Thailand's relations with the European Union and will
reinvigorate Thailand's key role in ASEAN and on the world stage " (Statement by EU High
Representative Catherine Ashton on the election in Thailand, 3/7/11, Brussels, A261/11)
The United States also congratulated Thai people for their "robust participation" in the July 3
election. "The choice of who will lead Thailand now rests with those representatives elected
by the Thai people. Washington looks forward to working with the next Thai government, the
opposition, and non-partisan civilians "to broaden and strengthen our alliance, which is based
on shared values and mutual respect" (Press Statement, Victoria Nuland, Department
Spokesperson, Office of the Spokesperson, Washington, DC, July 3, 2011).
Association of Southeast Asian Nations secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan issued a statement
on July 4 congratulating Ms Yingluck on her impressive victory. The overwhelming support
and clear mandate should help form a solid foundation for her leadership, Mr Surin said.
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The fact that the elected Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is the first woman in Thai
history in a world whose political scene is still dominated by men certainly accounts for a
broad acceptance of her mandate.
Thai-Cambodian relations As neighboring Burma did through female politician and peace activist Aug San Su Yii,
Cambodia warmly welcomed Thaksin Shinawatra‟s sister‟s victory in the general election. In
the Thai-Cambodian context, the election had an interpersonal dimension. Indeed, there
exists a reportedly very good relationship between former Thai prime minister Thaksin and
current Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen, with Hun Sen calling him “an eternal friend”
(Bangkok Post, 05/07/11). Thaksin even served as an economic adviser to Cambodia while in
self-imposed exile last year. In the midst of the conflict around the border demarcation
around the Preah Vihear temple, the Shinawatra‟s victory brought about hopes of
reconciliation between the two countries. “It's obvious - we cannot hide that we are happy
with the Pheu Thai Party's victory. We hope that the new government that will emerge from
the Pheu Thai Party will resolve problems with Cambodia in a more positive and peaceful
way than the previous government " Foreign minister Hor Namhong declared. (Bangkok
Post, 05/07/11).
Meanwhile, the International Court of Justice on July 19 read its ruling on the disputed
temple case. It provides for the set-up of a provisional demilitarised zone around the Preah
Vihear temple and orders Thailand and Cambodia to immediately withdraw their troops from
it and cease all military activities. The ruling on the case, filed by Cambodia on April 28, did
not disappoint Abhisit-led soon-to-be-ex-government. Thai foreign minister Kasit Piromya
expressed his satisfaction with the fact that the court did not comply with Cambodia's request
that Thailand unilaterally withdraw its military."The provisional demilitarised zone will not
put Thailand at a disadvantage. Neither does the court decision in any way prejudice its
further consideration of another request, the court's pending interpretation of the 1962
judgment on the Preah Vihear temple," he said (Bangkok post, 19/07/11). Cambodia‟s
foreign minister welcomed the decision.
Loyal to the cause that cemented the yellow-shirts during their 190-day siege of Government
House in 2008, the PAD demanded that the government rejects the ICJ ruling and refuses to
demilitarize the area.
However these calls did not resonate much in the Thai media and both countries promised to
follow the ruling. This move was welcomed by Asean secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan. As
part of the judgment, the International Court of Justice also said that Thailand and Cambodia
should continue their cooperation within the Asean framework and, in particular, allow the
observers appointed by the regional grouping to have access to the provisional demilitarised
zone.
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Thai-German relations Discussion this month was fed by a minor diplomatic incident between Thailand and
Germany involving the seizure by a German company of a plane belonging to the Crown
Prince in the context of an investment conflict with Thai authorities. The investment conflict
between Thailand and Germany began when the Germans demanded that the Thai
government compensate construction firm Walter Bau 30 million euros (Bt1.28 billion) in
damages after a decision by an international arbitration tribunal in 2009 over the Don Muang
Tollway.
Domestic Politics
Election results
We have won, brothers ! (Yingluck Shinwatra, youngest sister of Thaksin Shinawatra, leader
of Pheua Thai Party and prime-minister elect)
Election turnout was high (75 percent), but not as high as the previous one (85.38 percent on
23 December 2007) and approximately the same as the one before (73 percent on 6 February
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2005). This figure shows how awaited this election was. In certain cases, people even traded
their freedom against the possibility to vote. Indeed, voters with criminal records turned out
to vote and were caught by the police. In total, it was reported that 240 people who were
wanted by the police for various offences were arrested at polling stations where they showed
up to vote in the election.
3 July 2011
Party-list system Constituency system
Voters 46,921,682 46,921,777
Voter
turnout
35,203,107 75.03% 35,119,885 74.85%
Invalid
ballots
1,726,051 4.9% 2,039,694 5.79%
No-votes 958,052 2.72% 1,419,088 4.03%
3 July 2011
Political
party
Party-list
(number of
votes)
Party-list
(number of
House seats)
Constituency
(number of
House seats)
Total
number of
House seats
Percentage
Pheua Thai
(N.1 Yingluck
Shinawatra)
15,744,190 61 204 265 53%
Democrat
Party
(N. 10 Abhisit
Vejjajiya)
11,433,762 44 115 159 31.8%
Bhumjaithai
(N.16 )
1,281,577 5 29 34 6.8%
Chat Thai 906,656 4 15 19 3.8%
5
Pattana
(N.21)
Chat Pattana
Pheua Pendin
(N.2)
494,894 2 5 7 1.4%
Palang Chon
(N.6)
178,110 1 6 7 1.4%
Rak Prathet
Thai
(N.5 Chuwit)
998,603 4 4 0.8%
Mathubhum
(N.26)
251,702 1 1 2 0.4%
Rak Santhi
(N.12)
284,772 1 1 0.2%
Mahachon 133,772 1 1 0.2%
New
Democracy
125,784 1 1 0.2%
Total 125 375 500 100%
Compared to last general election, held on
23 December 2007,
Political party Party leader Constituency Party-list Total Percentage
People Power‟s
Party (Thai Rak
Thai/Pheua Thai)
Samak
Sundaravej
199 34 233 48.54
Democrat Party Abhisit
Vejjajiya
132 33 165 34.37
Chart Thai Banharn
Silpa-acha
33 4 37 7.71
Pheua Pendin Suwit 17 7 24 5
6
Khunkitti
Ruam Chai Thai
Chart Pattana
Chesatta
Tanacharo
8 1 9 1.88
Machatimathipathai Anongwan
Thepsuthin
7 0 7 1.46
Pracharath Sanoh
Thienthong
4 1 5 1.04
Total 400 80 480 100
With regards to geographical distribution of votes, the old same pattern dividing the country
between the north and northeast in favour of the Shinawatra‟s party and the south voting en
masse for the Democrats is still, and even more markedly, relevant in 2007, as shown below:
Source: Electoral Geography.com
Note: The People Power‟s Party was dissolved in 2008. It was reformed as the Pheua Thai.
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The red/blue line seems to roughly follow development fault lines (South more developed
than the North and Northeast) with the notable exception of border areas such as Mae Hong
Son and the three southernmost provinces. These areas are subject to severe security issues
involving drugs and arms trade.
When it comes to Bangkok, results are very similar to those of the last election.
In December 2007, out of 36 seats allocated for Bangkok, the Democrats won 27 seats (75%)
and the Pheua Thai predecessor 9 seats (25 %), in the framework of a multi-member
constituency election design.
In February 2005, out of 37 seats allocated for Bangkok, the Democrats won 4 seats (10.8 %)
and the Pheua Thai predecessor 32 seats (86.5%) and the Chat Thai won one seat (2.7%), in
the framework of the 1997 constitution and a single-member election design.
For this election, under the revised 2007 Constitution, out of 33 seats allocated for Bangkok,
the Democrats won 23 seats (69.7%) and the Pheua Thai 10 seats (30.3%).
Source: The Nation, 4 July 2011
Its north and northeast is roughly red while its south and southwest is roughly blue. The
south of Bangkok is the new center of the capital, a businesses center, home to rich Thai
families looking for a modern lifestyle as well as expatriates, especially in Sathorn –
constituency 2- and Sukhumvit – constituency 4 - (for instance, Abhisit lived in Sukhumvit).
The West is the historical city centre, relatively untouched by exponential economic
development, that is to say still free of skyscrapers and pedestrian paths, the tourist centre
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with the most famous temples areas and home to the most famous as well as the infamous
Khao San Road, - constituency 1- while the north and northeast (11 to 20) is less developed.
For the July 3 election, there were 33 constituencies in Bangkok:
1 Pra nakhon, Pom Prap Sattru Phai and Samphanthawong
Democrat
2 Pathumwan, Bangrak and Sathorn Democrat 3 Bang Kho Laem and Yannawa Democrat 4 Khlong Toey and Wattana Democrat 5 Dusit and Ratchathewi Pheua Thai 6 Din Daeng and Phaya Thai Democrat 7 Huay Khwang and a part of Wangthonglang Democrat 8 Lat Prao and a part of Wangthonglang Democrat 9 Chatuchak Democrat 10 Bang Sue Democrat 11 Laksi and Don Muang (airport) Pheua Thai 12 Don Muang (except the airport) Pheua Thai 13 Sai Mai Pheua Thai 14 Bang Khen Pheua Thai 15 Bangkapi Democrat 16 Bangkhun and Khannawao (Ramintra) Pheua Thai 17 Minburi and Khannawao Pheua Thai 18 Khlong Samwa Pheua Thai 19 Nong Choke Pheua Thai 20 Lat Krabang Pheua Thai 21 Saphan Sung and Krawet Democrat 22 Suan Luang and Prawet Democrat 23 Phra Khanong and Bang Na Democrat 24 Thonburi and Khlong San Democrat 25 Chom Thong and Thonburi (Dao Khanong) Democrat 26 Ratburana and Thungkhru Democrat 27 Bangkhunthien Democrat 28 Bang bon and Nong Khaem Democrat 29 Tawiwattana and Nong Khaem Democrat 30 Phasee Charoen and Bangkok Yay Democrat 31 Bang Kae Democrat 32 Talling Chan and Bangkok Noi Democrat 33 Bang Plat and Bangkok Noi Democrat TOTAL DEMOCRATS 23 (69.7%)