Thai External Debt and Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey as at end-March 2011 1 Thai External Debt and Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey As at end-March 2011 1. Thailand’s Overall External Debt At the end of the first quarter of 2011, Thailand’s external debt outstanding amounted to US$104.7 billion, an increase of US$7.8 billion or 8 percent from the end of the fourth quarter, 2010. This increase was observed in almost every sector. Non-bank sector registered with the highest uprise of US$3 billion, most of which were loans from parent companies and trade credits. Banking sector’s external debt increased by US$2.6 billion due mainly to an increase in short-term debt of foreign bank branches and Thai banks with foreign participation. These short-term borrowings were mostly responsive to liquidity management needs, largely driven by increasing foreign exchange obligations with clients, especially hedging contracts made by exporters. Additionally, monetary authorities’ (BOT) external debt increased by US$1.7 billion, mostly as a result of non-residents’ increasing interest over the BOT’s bond following the upward trend of the policy rates, coupled with the Ministry of Finance’s (MOF) policy to cease its treasury bill issuance during the second and third quarter of the current fiscal year. State enterprises was the only sector which registered a decline in external debt of US$0.4 billion. 2. Thailand’s External Debt Structure Sectorwise, private non-bank still accounted for the majority of external debt outstanding (53.9 percent), while the remaining portions were those of banks, state enterprises, general government, and monetary autorities, with the share of 22.2, 9.4, 8.2, and 6.3 percent, respectively. Maturitywise, short-term debt (based on original maturity) has constantly risen since the third quarter of 2009. As at end-March 2011, short-term debt stood at 49 percent, an increase of 48 percent from the previous quarter, largely as a result of an increase in banks’ short-term debt. Additionally, external debt with remaining maturity of less than 1 year accounted for 55.5 percent of the total. With regard to currency denomination, the majority was debt denominated in US dollar (45.9 percent), followed by those denomianated in Thai Baht, Japanese Yen and Euro, with the share of 28.8, 17.6, and 3.9, respectively. Major creditors were from Singapore, followed by Japan, Hongkong, United Kingdom, and United States, with the share of 24.2, 15.4, 7.3, 7.2, and 5.9, respectively.
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Thai External Debt and Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey as at end-March 2011 1
Thai External Debt and Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey
As at end-March 2011
1. Thailand’s Overall External Debt
At the end of the first quarter of 2011, Thailand’s external debt outstanding amounted to
US$104.7 billion, an increase of US$7.8 billion or 8 percent from the end of the fourth quarter,
2010. This increase was observed in almost every sector. Non-bank sector registered with the
highest uprise of US$3 billion, most of which were loans from parent companies and trade credits.
Banking sector’s external debt increased by US$2.6 billion due mainly to an increase in short-term
debt of foreign bank branches and Thai banks with foreign participation. These short-term
borrowings were mostly responsive to liquidity management needs, largely driven by increasing
foreign exchange obligations with clients, especially hedging contracts made by exporters.
Additionally, monetary authorities’ (BOT) external debt increased by US$1.7 billion, mostly as a
result of non-residents’ increasing interest over the BOT’s bond following the upward trend of the
policy rates, coupled with the Ministry of Finance’s (MOF) policy to cease its treasury bill issuance
during the second and third quarter of the current fiscal year. State enterprises was the only sector
which registered a decline in external debt of US$0.4 billion.
2. Thailand’s External Debt Structure
Sectorwise, private non-bank still accounted for the majority of external debt outstanding
(53.9 percent), while the remaining portions were those of banks, state enterprises, general
government, and monetary autorities, with the share of 22.2, 9.4, 8.2, and 6.3 percent, respectively.
Maturitywise, short-term debt (based on original maturity) has constantly risen since the
third quarter of 2009. As at end-March 2011, short-term debt stood at 49 percent, an increase of
48 percent from the previous quarter, largely as a result of an increase in banks’ short-term debt.
Additionally, external debt with remaining maturity of less than 1 year accounted for 55.5 percent
of the total.
With regard to currency denomination, the majority was debt denominated in US dollar
(45.9 percent), followed by those denomianated in Thai Baht, Japanese Yen and Euro, with the
share of 28.8, 17.6, and 3.9, respectively.
Major creditors were from Singapore, followed by Japan, Hongkong, United Kingdom, and
United States, with the share of 24.2, 15.4, 7.3, 7.2, and 5.9, respectively.
Thai External Debt and Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey as at end-March 2011 2
Thailand’s External Debt Outstanding (in millions of US$)
Thai External Debt and Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey as at end-March 2011 3
3. Thailand’s External Debt Indicators
Despite a significant increase of overall external debt outstanding since mid-2009, its
relative size as compared to the country’s international reserves and GDP well surpassed
the World Bank’s criteria, reflecting the Thai economy’s strong economic fundamentals.
Details of these indicators are as follows:
3.1 Reserves/Short-term Debt on Remaining Maturity measures a country’s foreign
exchange liquidity adequacy in the short run. For Thailand, this ratio for 2011Q1 was at 312
percent or 3.12 times, compared to 319 percent or 3.19 times in the last quarter. Still, the
ratio stood well above the World Bank’s recommended threshold of 1.5 times or 150
percent.
3.2 Debt/GDP ratio assesses a country’s ability to service its foreign debt by
comparing external debt with gross domestic products. The World Bank’s criteria states that
this ratio should not exceed 80 percent. For this quarter, the corresponding ratio stood at 36
percent, slightly higher than that of the previous quarter (34 percent).
Thai External Debt and Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey as at end-March 2011 4
3.3 Debt Service Ratio is a measurement of a country’s ability to repay its external
debt due for payment relative to the size of its foreign currency earnings. During this quarter,
the ratio stood at 4.3 percent, which was higher than that of the previous quarter (3.7
percent), but still well below the World Bank’s suggested cap of 20 percent.
4. Survey Results on Private Non-Bank External Debt1
Based on the Bank of Thailand’s survey on private non-bank external debt as at end-
March 2011, total external debt amounted to US$35.9 billion (excluding trade credits), an
increase of US$1.8 billion from last year’s figure. This increase was a combined result of new
borrowings worth of US$0.7 billion, and revision to preliminary data previously reported
(US$1.4 billion); whereas debt restructuring and exchange rate changes caused a decrease of
US$0.3 billion.
4.1 Instrument Type
Private non-bank external debt as at end-March 2011 recorded an outstanding of
US$35.9. Of this amount, US$ 17.9 billion was foreign-currency-denominated loans (49.8
percent), followed by Thai-baht-denominated loans (borrowings from non-resident creditors
contracted in baht) of US$ 13.3 billion (37.1 percent), foreign-currency-denominated debt
1 Excluding trade credits
Thai External Debt and Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey as at end-March 2011 5
securities (including FRN, FRCD, P/N, B/E, and bonds) of US$3.3 billion (9.3 percent), and
Thai-baht-denominated debt securities of US$1.4 billion (3.8 percent). (Table 1)
4.2 Maturity
When classified by original maturity, the ratio between short-term to long-term external debt was 20: 80. Of the total outstanding amount, 48.9 percent was contracted with no maturity, and 12.1 percent had the maturity of more than 10 years. (Table 1 and 3)
When classified by remaining maturity, the ratio between short-term to long-term external debt was 32 : 68. Of the total outstanding amount, 48.0 percent was contracted with no maturity, while those with the maturity of less than 1 year accounted for 15.5 percent (Table 1 and 4)
Thai External Debt and Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey as at end-March 2011 6
4.3 Average Interest Rate
The average interest rate for end-March 2011 external debt was around 2.14 percent, a decline from 2.18 percent in the previous quarter. This was consistent with the downward trend of world market interest rates. Of the total external debt, 36.4 percent was contracted with fixed interest rates, with an average rate of 4.3 percent. Interestingly, 34.5 percent of the external debt was interest-free loans, most of which were loans from parent companies or affiliated enterprises abroad. Most of the borrowings with floating interest rates (21.3 percent) were benchmarked with London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), with an average rate of 1.63 percent. (Table 5)
4.4 Currency Composition
The currency composition of private external debt in Thailand remained relatively unchanged with 4 dominating currencies accounting for 97.5 of total external debt; i.e., Thai baht amounted to US$14.7 billion (40.8 percent), followed by US dollar, Japanese yen, and Euro, representing 37.5, 15.4, and 3.8 percent of total external debt, respectively. (Table 7)
Thai External Debt and Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey as at end-March 2011 7
4.5 Country (Location) of Creditor
Thai enterprises borrowed mostly from Singapore with a share of US$ 9.8 billion (27.4 percent), followed by Japan, Hong Kong, United States, United Kingdom and Cayman Islands with corresponding shares of 14.6, 10.3, 7.2, 7.0 and 3.8 percent, respectively. (Table 9)
4.6 Business
The industrial sector incurred the most external debt with an outstanding debt of US$10.1 billion, representing 28 percent of the total. Major borrowers were companies in chemical, electrical appliances, and petroleum industries, followed by financial and service sectors with external debt outstanding of US$9.1 billion (25.4 percent) and US$5.6 billion (15.5 percent), respectively.
Thai External Debt and Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey as at end-March 2011 8
Appendix
Survey on Private Non-bank External Debt as at end-March 2011
Survey Population and Samples
The survey population encompassed all private enterprises or individuals with external debt outstanding (5,604 companies). Of this, 415 companies were sample units (representing approximately 80 percent of total external debt outstanding), with details as follows:
o Borrowers or lenders with outstanding amount exceeding US$20 million as at end-December 2011 (244 companies)
o Fifty companies with end-December 2011 external debt outstanding between US$3.5 – 19.9 million were sampled for the purpose of statistical quality control.
o Those with other types of external debt outstanding (62 companies).
o New entries incorporated into this survey consisted of 59 companies whose transactions on debt incurrence, principal repayment, or interest payment/receipt were reported through ITRS in the previous quarter, but have never been covered in any of the previous surveys.
The BOT sent out survey forms to 415 companies, of which 115 companies received the form by mail while the remaining 300 received via e-mail. Responses from 391 companies were obtained, representing a 96.78 percent response rate.
Data Verification and Estimation
The end-December 2010 external debt outstanding data obtained from the survey was crosschecked with corresponding records from foreign exchange reports (ITRS-FX). If any inconsistency occurred, respondents were requested to validate the data and corrections would be made, accordingly.
รวม : หน้ีสกุลเงินบาท (6 - 7) 3,968 85 06/06/15 2,892 1,161 03/09/15 10,610 14,663 Sub Total - Baht-denominated Loans & Debt Securities Borrowed from Non-Residents (6-7)
ยอดรวมหน้ีตางประเทศของธุรกิจเอกชนท่ีมิใชธนาคาร (1 - 7) 18,030 1,864 06/05/16 13,532 6,361 03/08/07 16,009 35,903 Total Private Non- Bank External Debt (1-7)
1/ ไมรวมหน้ีประเภทสินเช่ือทางการคาที่ไดรับจากตางประเทศ1/ Excluding Trade Credits received from overseas.2/ ไมรวมหน้ีไมกําหนดระยะเวลาชําระคืนและหน้ีที่ชําระคืนเมื่อทวงถาม2/ Excluding debt outstanding contracted under "No age" and "At call" categories.ที่มา : การสํารวจหน้ีตางประเทศของธุรกิจเอกชนที่มิใชธนาคาร ฝายสถิติและขอสนเทศ ธนาคารแหงประเทศไทยSource : Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey, Statistics and Information Department, Bank of Thailand
ตารางที่ 1Table 1
หนี้ตางประเทศของธุรกิจเอกชนที่มิใชธนาคาร 1/ : ประเภทหนี้และอายุหนี้Private Non-Bank External Debt 1/ : Type of Debt & Maturity
ยอดรวมหน้ีตางประเทศของธุรกิจเอกชนท่ีมิใชธนาคาร (1 - 3) 07/04/13 06/09/15 06/04/18 06/03/02 06/04/04 06/04/23 06/05/16 06/04/01 06/04/15 06/03/27 06/06/18 06/05/16 Total Private Non - Bank External Debt (1 - 3)
1/ ไมรวมหนี้ประเภทสินเชื่อทางการคาที่ไดรับจากตางประเทศ1/ Excluding Trade Credits received from overseas.2/ หนี้ระยะยาว หมายถึง หนี้ที่มีอายุมากกวา 1 ป รวมทั้งหนี้ที่ไมกําหนดอายุการชําระคืน หนี้ระยะสั้น หมายถึง หนี้ที่มีอายุไมเกิน 1 ป รวมทั้งหนี้ที่ชําระคืนเม่ือทวงถาม และหนี้ที่ไมมีรายละเอียดอายุหนี้2/ Long - term debt refers to debt which has a maturity of more than one year (365 days onwards) including "No age" maturity. Short - term debt refers to debt which has a maturity of one year or less (1-365 days) including "At cal" maturity and incomplete due date.3/ อายุหนี้ตามสัญญา และคาเฉล่ียรายป คํานวณจากอายุหนี้เฉล่ีย ณ สิ้นไตรมาสถวงน้ําหนักดวยขอมูลยอดคงคางรายไตรมาส3/ Original maturity and yearly average calculated from the average maturity as end of quarter weighted by outstanding quarterly data.ที่มา : การสํารวจหนี้ตางประเทศของธุรกิจเอกชนที่มิใชธนาคาร ฝายสถิติและขอสนเทศ ธนาคารแหงประเทศไทยSource : Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey, Statistics and Information Department, Bank of Thailand
(Millions of US$)
ตารางท่ี 2Table 2
หน้ีตางประเทศของธุรกิจเอกชนท่ีมิใชธนาคาร 1/ : จําแนกตามประเภทหน้ีและอายุหน้ี 2/ Private Non-Bank External Debt 1/ : Type of Debt & Maturity 2/
ณ ส้ินป 2548 - ส้ิน มีนาคม 2554As - end 2005 - March 2011
1/ ไมรวมหนี้ประเภทสินเชื่อทางการคาที่ไดรับจากตางประเทศ1/ Excluding Trade Credits received from overseas.2/ รวมตั๋วอัตราดอกเบี้ยลอยตัว, บัตรเงินฝากอัตราดอกเบี้ยลอยตัว, ตั๋วสัญญาใชเงิน, ตั๋วแลกเงิน และหุนกู2/ Including FRN, FRCD, NCD,Promissory Notes, Bills of Exchange and Bonds.ที่มา : การสํารวจหนี้ตางประเทศของธุรกิจเอกชนที่มิใชธนาคาร ฝายสถิติและขอสนเทศ ธนาคารแหงประเทศไทยSource : Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey, Statistics and Information Department, Bank of Thailand
1/ไมรวมหน้ีประเภทสินเชื่อทางการคาที่ไดรับจากตางประเทศ1/ Excluding Trade Credits received from overseas.ที่มา : การสํารวจหน้ีตางประเทศของธุรกิจเอกชนที่มิใชธนาคาร ฝายสถิติและขอสนเทศ ธนาคารแหงประเทศไทยSource : Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey, Statistics and Information Department, Bank of Thailand
Country Foreign Currency Loans : Borrowed from Non-Residents
Foreign Currency Debt Securities 2/
Baht-DenominatedLoans & Debt
Securities Borrowed fromNon-Residents
Total Private Non-Bank External Debt
Country
(1) (2) (3) (4) = (1) + (2) + (3)
สิงคโปร 5,151 485 4,207 9,843 Singapore
ญี่ปุน 3,742 308 1,200 5,250 Japan
ฮองกง 2,101 28 1,586 3,715 Hong Kong
สหรัฐอเมริกา 1,486 33 1,073 2,592 United States Of America
สหราชอาณาจักร 415 431 1,676 2,522 United Kingdom
หมูเกาะเคยแมน 9 - 1,366 1,375 Cayman Islands
เยอรมนี 832 2 218 1,051 Germany
สวิตเซอรแลนด 494 87 373 953 Switzerland
มอริเชียส 36 - 879 915 Mauritius
เนเธอรแลนด 647 - 260 907 Netherlands
มาเลเซีย 404 - 385 789 Malaysia
ไตหวัน 433 7 58 498 Taiwan
ฟลิปปนส 237 - 95 332 Philippines
ออสเตรเลีย 218 - 61 279 Australia
ออสเตรีย 274 - 2 275 Austria
ฝรั่งเศส 172 - 64 236 France
แคนาดา 102 0 96 198 Canada
สาธารณรัฐเกาหลี (ใต) 116 - 65 181 Korea, Republic Of
สวีเดน 33 - 131 164 Sweden
นอรเวย 87 1 30 118 Norway
ฟนแลนด 110 - 3 113 Finland
ลักเซมเบิรก 82 - 31 113 Luxembourg
ไอรแลนด 84 - 13 97 Ireland
สาธารณรัฐประชาชนจีน 84 - 13 96 China
สาธารณรัฐแอฟริกาใต 0 - 95 95 South Africa
อื่นๆ 546 1,964 685 3,195 Others
รวม 17,894 3,346 14,663 35,903 Total
1/ ไมรวมหน้ีประเภทสินเชื่อทางการคาที่ไดรับจากตางประเทศ1/ Excluding Trade Credits received from overseas.2/ รวมตั๋วอัตราดอกเบี้ยลอยตัว, บัตรเงินฝากอัตราดอกเบ้ียลอยตัว, ตั๋วสัญญาใชเงิน, ต๋ัวแลกเงิน และหุนกู2/ Including FRN, FRCD, NCD, Promissory Notes, Bills of Exchange and Bonds.ที่มา : การสํารวจหน้ีตางประเทศของธุรกิจเอกชนที่มิใชธนาคาร ฝายสถิติและขอสนเทศ ธนาคารแหงประเทศไทยSource : Private Non-Bank External Debt Survey, Statistics and Information Department, Bank of Thailand
ณ ส้ินป 2548 - ส้ิน มีนาคม 2554As - end 2005 - March 2011
ตารางที่ 11Table 11
หนี้ตางประเทศภาคเอกชนที่มิใชธนาคาร 1/ ณ ส้ินธันวาคม 2553 และส้ินมีนาคม 2554Private Non-bank External Debt 1/ at the end of December 2010 and March 2011
1/ Excluding Trade Credits received from overseas.2/ รวมการปรับเพิ่ม Inflow ใหสอดคลองกับขอมูลของกิจการที่มีรายการ Outflow แตไมไดบันทึกขอมูล Inflow ในอดีตจํานวน 59.85 ลานดอลลาร สรอ.2/ Including Inflow Adjustments Pertaining to Those Companies, which Registered Some Outflow Transactions during the Current Period without Corresponding Inflows during Preceding Periods,