Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District March 7, 2014 Texas Weather Outlook (Spring 2014)
May 20, 2015
Jeffrey LindnerMeteorologist
Harris County Flood Control DistrictMarch 7, 2014
Texas Weather Outlook (Spring 2014)
Texas Annual Rainfall 1895-2012
Texas Annual Rainfall
A Decade of Drought
2013 Texas Rainfall
2013 Texas Rainfall Departure from Normal
6 Year Rainfall Departures
2008 - 53.00 : + 3.23 *2009 – 47.01: - 2.762010 – 42.72: - 7.052011 – 24.57: - 25.202012 – 42.32: - 7.452013 – 38.84: - 10.93Total Departure: - 50.16
2008 – 21.71: - 19.512009 – 30.81: - 10.412010 – 46.62: + 5.402011 – 13.08: - 28.142012 – 28.13: - 13.092013 – 25.56: - 15.66Total Departure: - 81.41
2008 – 27.99: - 3.772009 – 20.61: - 11.152010 – 43.92: + 12.162011 – 12.06: - 19.072012 – 18.82: - 12.942013 – 23.45: - 8.31Total Departure: - 43.71
Houston BUSH IAH Victoria
Corpus Christi
2008 – 15.98: - 16.172009 – 34.11: + 1.962010 – 28.42: - 3.732011 – 16.90: - 15.252012 – 35.13: + 2.982013 – 37.04: + 4.48 Total Departure: - 25.73
Austin
* Hurricane Ike landfall on upper TX coast.
2014 Drought Conditions
2014 Lake Levels Lake Levels and Capacity February 20, 2014
Lake Conroe: -1.18 (94%)Lake Houston: 0.00 (100%)Canyon Lake: -7.68 (84%)Lake Somerville: -2.71 (81%)Lake Texana: -3.41 (81%)Lake Buchanan: -30.62 (38%) Lake Travis: -52.25 (36%)Choke Canyon: -23.10 (34%)Toledo Bend: -3.37 (87%)Sam Rayburn: -3.23 (88%)
Lake Houston
Lake Travis
Lake Levels and Capacity (Lowest Levels)
Lake Conroe: -8.41 (66%) *Lake Houston: -7.70 (65%)Lake Livingston: -4.10 (80%)Lake Somerville: -10.36 (37%)Lake Texana: -12.43 (41%)Lake Buchanan: -30.22 (35%) Lake Travis: -54.74 (31%)Lake Georgetown: -25.31 (34%)Toledo Bend: -12.43 (58%) *Sam Rayburn: -13.60 (55%) *
* New Record low
Conservation Storage Statistics -TWDB
<> <>
Current State Storage: 64.0%6 months ago: 64.0%1 year ago: 67.0%
Drought Conditions: Highland Lakes
Total Storage of Travis and Buchanan
Lowest combined storage ever: 621,221 acre-feet on 9-9-1951Lowest combined storage in current drought 638,282 acre-feet on 9-18-2013Current total combined storage of Lakes Travis and Buchanan: 38%
Controlling Global Weather Patterns in Fall, Winter, and Spring
• ENSO (El Nino/La Nina)• AMO• PDO
Nino Regions
Current Nino Region SST’s
El Niño – ENSO Warm Phase
El Niño Winter Impacts
La Niña – ENSO Cold Phase
La Niña Impacts
ENSO Forecast
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Current Pacific Sea Surface Anomalies
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Cold phase PDO favors southern plains drought
Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)
Warm phase AMO favors southern plains drought
2014 Drought Forecast
Long Term Outlook• Drought has always been a part of Texas climate.• With a cold PDO and a warm AMO, Texas is more susceptible to
prolonged drought this decade.• The end of the 20th century was likely the most drought-free period in
the last millennium. Our wet trend is expected to reverse this century, increasing the importance of drought preparedness and mitigation.
Questions ???