Texas Plant Protection Conference ‘Climate of Change’ International Trade Relations Parr Rosson Professor & Director Center for North American Studies.

Texas Plant Protection ConferenceTexas Plant Protection Conference‘Climate of Change’‘Climate of Change’

International Trade RelationsInternational Trade Relations

Parr RossonParr Rosson

Professor & DirectorProfessor & Director

Center for North American StudiesCenter for North American Studies

Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University

CNAS

The Changing Climate of The Changing Climate of TradeTrade

AgroterrorismAnimal Disease OutbreaksNew Agreements & Disputes

CNAS

U.S. Agricultural Trade, 1970-2005F

Source: U.S. Trade Internet System, www.fas.usda.gov/ustrade

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005F$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

$70.0

Billion Dollars Exports Imports

Trade Surplus Shrinks

Securing U.S. InfrastructureSecuring U.S. Infrastructure

Border/Trade InfrastructureBorder/Trade Infrastructure– 5,252 mile border with Canada5,252 mile border with Canada– 1,989 mile border with Mexico1,989 mile border with Mexico– 300 Land Ports of Entry-Exit300 Land Ports of Entry-Exit– 95,000 miles Coastline & Waterways95,000 miles Coastline & Waterways– 300 U.S. Seaports300 U.S. Seaports– 429 Commercial Airports429 Commercial Airports

U.S. Customs/Immigration Agents in U.S. Customs/Immigration Agents in Canada & More Ag. InspectorsCanada & More Ag. Inspectors

CNAS

Agroterror & Protective Agroterror & Protective ResponseResponse

Post CUSTA/NAFTA-Who’s in Charge??Post CUSTA/NAFTA-Who’s in Charge??Increased Truck/Rail/Noncommercial TrafficIncreased Truck/Rail/Noncommercial Traffic

Focus on Drug Interdiction, Expediting Focus on Drug Interdiction, Expediting Cargo & Illegal ImmigrationCargo & Illegal Immigration

9/11/01- 9/11/01- “Crease In History”“Crease In History”– U.S. Customs in Charge at BordersU.S. Customs in Charge at Borders

Focus on Terrorism, Illegal Immigration, Focus on Terrorism, Illegal Immigration, Drugs, Expediting CargoDrugs, Expediting Cargo

New Agencies & RulesNew Agencies & RulesDept. of Homeland Security

– APHIS Inspectors Included– FDA Not Included

Bioterrorism Preparedness Act 2002– Administered by FDA

Register Notify Keep Records

US Borders ‘Last Line of Defense’ US Borders ‘Last Line of Defense’ Not FirstNot First

CNAS

Mad Cows & Other Mad Cows & Other Monsters!!Monsters!!

Alberta, Canada Direct Sale Steer Prices, Mid-month Mid-point, Jan 02 - Nov 04

Source: Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, www.agric.gov.ab.ca

Jan-02

Mar-02

Jul -02

Jan-03

May-03

Jun-03

Jul-03

Aug-03

Sep-03

Nov-03

Feb-04

Aug -04

Nov -04

$30

$50

$70

$90

$110

CN$/CWT

$106.0

$88.3

$41.5$36.2

$84.0

$107.0

$115.0

$70.8

$113.0

$77.4$75.0

$65.1

$79.8

BSE (5/20/2003)

US Fed Cattle Futures, Nov 03-Jan 04US Fed Cattle Futures, Nov 03-Jan 04

BSE12/23/03

*12/7/04

U.S. Meat Exports, 1970-May 2004

Source: ERS/USDA 2004

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20002004 (Jan-May)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,0001,000 Metric Tons

Broiler Meat

Beef

Pork

BSE Boost

BSE Decline

Russian Ban

U.S. Cattle and Hog Imports from Canada

Source: USDA/FAS

0.8 0.9

1.7

2.83.2

4.1 4.1 4.4

5.35.7

7.4

1.2 1.0 1.11.5 1.4 1.3

1.0 1.01.3

1.7

0.5

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Million Head

Hogs Cattle No Cattle Imports from Canada in 2004

US Cattle Imports from Mexico

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004F0

500

1000

1500

2000

1,000 Head1,653

1,390 F

Annual Avg. 800,000 Head

2004 is CNAS forecast

New AgreementsNew Agreements

U.N. Biosafety Protocol– United States Not a Member

Trade Agreements: 8 Approved,8 + Pending

WTO Negotiations-Doha RoundTrade Agreements w/Chile,

Australia, Others

CNAS

Australia ‘04Australia ‘04

Bahrain ‘04Bahrain ‘04CAFTA ‘04CAFTA ‘04

Chile ‘04Chile ‘04

FTAA ’06?

Morocco ‘04Morocco ‘04

Southern African Southern African Customs Union ‘05Customs Union ‘05

Singapore ‘03Singapore ‘03

Jordan ‘03Jordan ‘03

U.S. Trade Agreements-3d Largest MarketU.S. Trade Agreements-3d Largest Market

NAFTA ‘94NAFTA ‘94 Israel ‘85Israel ‘85

CUSTA, ‘89CUSTA, ‘89

Andean FTA Andean FTA 0505

Panama ‘05Panama ‘05

Thailand ‘05Thailand ‘05

MEFTA ‘06

World Average Agricultural Tariffs, 2000

115

85

55

4030

25

12

South

Asia

Carib

bean Is

lands

Centra

l Am

erica

South

Am

erica

Europea

n Union

North

Am

erica

United S

tates

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140 Bound Average

World Average

62%

Percent

Jumping Genes!Jumping Genes!

Frankenfoods!

DisputesDisputesMexico Transgenic MaizeEU & China GMO RulesU.S./Mexico Water DisputeAnti-dumping Disputes, Mostly

NAFTA (lumber & hogs)Canadian Cattle LawsuitWTO Cotton Case Ruling Due

March ‘05CNAS

Nuevo Leon

Tamaulipas

LRGV

Rio Conchos•Amistad Reservoir

•Falcon Reservoir

Presidio

ChihuahuaDelicias

Pecos River

Rio Grande

•Ft. Quitman

65% of Inflows65% of Inflows

84% Capacity37% Capacity

Rio Bravo del Norte

Tributaries & Tributaries & ReservoirsReservoirs

Boquilla

112/7/04IBWC

ImplicationsImplications

Complex, Convoluted IssuesDegree of Trade Dependence Determines

Potential Severity Disruptions to TradeManaging U.S. Borders Huge JobAs Trade Agreements Implemented, Expect

More DisputesWTO Cotton Case, Major Farm Program

ImplicationsU.S./Mexico Water Dispute Abated, Not

Solved CNAS

CNASThanks!

Parr [email protected]

Center for North American Studies

“Informed Decisions for Global Change”