DLR-Institute of Transport Research Testing and benchmarking of microscopic traffic flow simulation models Elmar Brockfeld , Peter Wagner [email protected], [email protected]Institute of Transport Research German Aerospace Center (DLR) Rutherfordstrasse 2 12489 Berlin, Germany 10th WCTR, Istanbul, 06.07.2004
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Testing and benchmarking of microscopic traffic flow simulation models
Testing and benchmarking of microscopic traffic flow simulation models. Elmar Brockfeld , Peter Wagner [email protected], [email protected] Institute of Transport Research German Aerospace Center (DLR) Rutherfordstrasse 2 12489 Berlin, Germany 10th WCTR, Istanbul, 06.07.2004. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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DLR-Institute of Transport Research
Testing and benchmarking ofmicroscopic traffic flow simulation models
The situation in microscopic traffic flow modelling today:
» A very large number of models exists describing the traffic flow.
» If they are tested, this is done separately with special data sets.
» By now the microscopic models are quantitatively not comparable.
„State of the art“
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Motivation
Idea
» Calibrate and validate microscopic traffic flow models with the same data sets. ( quantitative comparibility, benchmark possible ?)
» Calibration and validation in a microscopic way by analysing any time-series produced by single cars.
In the following
» Calibration and validation of ten car-following models with data recorded on a test track in Hokkaido, Japan.
» Comparison with results of other approaches.
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Test track Hokkaido, Japan
1200 m
curve300 m
»10 cars equipped with DGPS driving on a 3km test track
»Delivery of positions in intervals of 0.1 second
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Test track Hokkaido, JapanImpressions
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Hokkaido, Japan – The data
» Data recorded by Nakatsuji et al. in 2001» Data from 4 out of 8 experiments are used for the analyses:
» Exchange of drivers between the cars after each experiment» Leading car performed certain “driving patterns” on the straight
sections:» driving with constant speeds of 20, 40, 60 and 80 km/h» driving in waves varying from about 30 to 70 km/h
Experiment
Duration [min]
Full loops
„11“ 26 6
„12“ 25 7
„13“ 18 6
„21“ 14 4
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Hokkaido, Japan – Speed development
Speed development of the leading car in all four experiments
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The models
The following existing modelshave been analysed:
» 4 parameters, CA0.1 („cellular automaton model“)» 4 p, OVM (“Optimal Velocity Model” by Bando)» 6 p, GIPPSLIKE (basic model by P.G. Gipps)» 6 p, AERDE (used in the software INTEGRATION)» 6 p, IDM (“Intelligent Driver Model” by D. Helbing)» 7 p, IDMM (“Intelligent Driver Model with Memory”)» 7 p, SK_STAR (based on the model by S. Krauss)» 7 p, NEWELL (CA-variant of the model with more
variable acceleration and deceleration by G. Newell)» 13 p, FRITZSCHE (used in the british software PARAMICS;
similar to what is used in the german software VISSIM by PTV)» 15 p, MITSIM (used in the software MitSim)
leader
1nvnvng
follower
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The model‘s parameters
Parameters used by all models:
V_max Maximum velocity
l Vehicle length
a acceleration
Most models:
b deceleration
tau reaction time
Models with different driving regimes:
MITSIM and FRITZSCHE
Java Applet for testing the models
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Hokkaido, Japan - Simulation setup
» For each simulation run one vehicle pair is under consideration» Movement of leading car: as recorded in the data» Movement of following car: following the rules of a traffic model
» Error measurement:» e percentage error» T time series of experiment » g(obs) observed gaps/headways» g(sim) simulated gaps/headways
» Objective of calibration: Minimize the error e !
gap
V_dataV_sim
T1 (sim) (obs)g (t) g (t)T t 1e
T1 (obs)g (t)T t 1
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Hokkaido, Japan – gaps time series
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Hokkaido, Japan – Calibration and Validation
Calibration (“Adjust parameters of a model to real data”)
» Find the optimal parameter sets for each vehicle pair in each experiment (9*4 = 36 calibrations for each model):
» Minimize the error e as defined before» Minimization with a gradient free (direct search) optimisation algorithm
(“downhill simplex” or “Nelder-Mead”)» To avoid local minima: about 100 simulations with random initializations
Validation (“Apply calibrated model to other real data sets”)
» For each model all optimal parameter results are transferred to data sets of three other driver pairs (in total 108 validations for each model)
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Hokkaido, Japan - Calibration Results (1/2) Results of the first experiment “11”
» Errors between 9 and 19 %, mostly between 13 and 17 %