Can economic developmen t aid to the Can economic developmen t aid to the FA T A reg ion be effecti vely used to FA T A reg ion be effecti vely used to undermine terr orism? undermine terr orism? Presented byRachel LundSonja Settele Joonas Uotinen Cristina Yoong
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Can economic development aid to theCan economic development aid to theFATA region be effectively used toFATA region be effectively used toundermine terrorism?undermine terrorism?
eports of Taliban providing higher wages and attracting recruits.
Message of a better life with the Taliban.
Argument: Poor people are more likely toArgument: Poor people are more likely tobecome terrorists as they are more likely to gainbecome terrorists as they are more likely to gain
"T heir message is there is a lot of injustice and we will give you land, we will look after you."
-BBC interviewing a retired senior official from North West Pakistan-
Poverty Rate for Palestinian Suicide ombers andPoverty Rate for Palestinian Suicide ombers andPalestinian Population of Comparable AgePalestinian Population of Comparable Age
Source: Krueger and Malecková, Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is there a causal connection? , 2003
The only relevant cross-country study done so far doesnvt find a role for poverty to explain countries of origin of terrorists.
Micro-evidence is even clearer:
Reply: Terrorists don't generally come from poorReply: Terrorists don't generally come from poorcountries or poor backgrounds (evidence)countries or poor backgrounds (evidence)
Especially the leading forces come from wealthy backgrounds.
Reply: Terrorists don't generally come from poorReply: Terrorists don't generally come from poorcountries or poor backgrounds (evidence)countries or poor backgrounds (evidence)
Argument: The poor are more ignorant and thusArgument: The poor are more ignorant and thusmore likely to be convinced by terroristmore likely to be convinced by terrorist
Reply: Terrorists are better educatedReply: Terrorists are better educated
Educational Distribution for Palestinian Suicide ombersEducational Distribution for Palestinian Suicide ombersand Palestinian Population of Comparable Ageand Palestinian Population of Comparable Age
Source: Krueger and Malecková, Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is there a causal connection? , 2003
Argument: Panel data tells us that as countries getArgument: Panel data tells us that as countries getricher they export fewer terroristsricher they export fewer terrorists
Pinar Derin-Güre, Does Terrorism have economic roots? (unpublished paper), 2009
Results are likely to be upward biased due to reverse causality between terrorism and GDP.
The most favorable regression results imply
spendings of US billions per year, in order to decrease annual international terrorist attacks from Pakistan by 1.
Reply: There would have to be a large increase inReply: There would have to be a large increase inDP to make a noticeable impact on terrorismDP to make a noticeable impact on terrorism