Teori dan Teknik Penyusunan Indikator Business Cycle · 2018. 6. 7. · Teori dan Teknik Penyusunan Indikator Business Cycle Oleh: Suparman LA* Summary The contraction period in the

Teori dan Teknik Penyusunan Indikator Business Cycle

O l e h : S u p a r m a n L A *

Summary

The contraction period in the world economy is commonly called "a recession" and the expansion period is called "a recovery". The existing movement of these kinds in an aggregated form is called "Business Cycle". The definition of a Business Cycle was formulated by Arthur F. Bums and Wesley C. Mitchell in 1946 which was a modification of that of the National Bureau of Economic Research in 1927 and is as follows :

Business cycles are a type of fluctuation found in the aggregate eco­nomic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises: a cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general re­cessions, contractions, and revivals which merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle: this sequence of changes is recurrent but not periodic; in duration business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years; they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character with amplitudes approximately their own.

The Business Cycle indicators are subdivided into three groups, namely leading indicators, coinciding indicators, and lagging indicators. Though

* Penulis ucapkan terima kasih kepada Dr. Tawang Alun yang telah memberi­kan petunjuk perbaikan-perbaikan maktiiab ini. Pandangan-pandangan yang disajikan pada makaiab ini merupakan tanggung jawab pribadi penulis, dan buksm merupakan tanggung jawab instansi di mana penulis bertugas.

E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5 3 7 1

Indonesia is still on tM level of a developing country, the data related to the construction of Business Cycle indicators is already available. In this case the Central Bureau of Statistics, Jakarta which is responsible for gathering all Indonesian statistical data in cooperation with the Institute of Developing Economies, Tokyo, is going to construct these Business Cycle indicators. This cooperation will take about four years from 1984 to 1987, and later the Central Bureau of Statistics will continue the publication of these indicators as a part of its main activities.

This paper is a theoretical overview in the building of the Business Cycle indicators. The alternative approach in the part of the decomposition and the selection of the indicators is proposed by using the well known "Akaike Baysea Technique" instead of the X-II., which is currently em­ployed.

1. Pendahuluan

D e n g a n t e l a h t e r s e d i a n y a d a t a b e r k a l a t e n t a n g p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a y a n g d i p u b l i k a s i k a n s e c a r a p e r i o d i k — t e r u t a m a d a t a y a n g b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n d u n i a u s a h a , m a k a d a p a t l a h d i b u a t s u a t u i n d i k a t o r y a n g m e n g g a m b a r k a n t e n t a n g p o l a p e r g e r a k a n a k t i v i t a s b a n g s a y a n g d i s e b u t B u s i n e s s C y c l e I n d i k a ­t o r . I n d i k a t o r i n i j u g a b i s a d i p e r g u n a k a n u n t u k b e r b a g a i k e p e r i u a n s e p e r t i F o r e c a s t i n g j a n g k a p e n d e k , m e n d e t e k s i k e a d a a n d u n i a u s a h a s u a t u b a n g s a p a d a w a k t u y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n , dasa r p e m b u a t a n k e b i j a k a n b a g i P e m e r i n t a h k h u s u s n y a d i b i d a n g s t a b i l i t a s p e r e k o n o m i a n u n t u k p r o d u k s i d a n i n v e s t a s i .

D e n g a n m e l i h a t k e g u n a a n i n d i k a t o r B u s i n e s s C y c l e y a n g s a n g a t b e s a r d a n t e l a h t e r s e d i a n y a d a t a , m a k a B i r o P u s a t S t a t i s t i k m e m b i n a k e r j a s a m a d e n g a n I n s t i t u t e D e v e l o p i n g E c o n o m i e s - T o k y o m u l a i t a h u n 1 9 8 4 s / d 1 9 8 7 u n t u k m e n g k o n s t r u k s i i n d i k a t o r i n i , k h u s u s n y a u n t u k I n d o n e s i a . P r o y e k k e r j a s a m a i n i m e r u p a k a n b a g i a n P r o y e k I n s t i t u t e D e v e l o p i n g E c o n o m i e s S h o r t - T e r m E c o n o m i c P r e d i c t i o n i n A s i a ( S E P I A ) . U n t u k t a h u n p e r t a m a 1 9 8 4 / 1 9 8 5 m e r u p a k a n t a h a p a n k e r j a s a m a d a l a m p e n g u m p u l a n d a t a d a r i p u b i i k a s i d a n s t u d i t e n t a n g m e t o d o l o g i s e p e r t i D i f f u s i o n I n d e x d a n m e t o d e -m e t o d e I a i n n y a .

M a k a l a h i n i m e r u p a k a n m a k a l a h y a n g k e d u a p a d a b a g i a n s t u d i t e o r i d a n m e t o d e - m e t o d e y a n g m e n c a k u p t i g a b a g i a n , y a n g p e r t a m a t e n t a n g t e o r i B u s i n e s s C y c l e d a n P e n g g u n a a n n y a . B a g i a n y a n g k e d u a t e n t a n g t e k n i k p e m ­b e n t u k a n B u s i n e s s C y c l e y a n g m e n c a k u p d a t a y a n g d i p e r g u n a k a n , t e k n i k d e k o m p o s i s i , P e m i l i k a n v a r i a b e l d a n p e n g e l o m p o k a n m e n j a d i l e a d i n g , c o i n -

3 7 2 E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5

c i d i n g d a n l a g g i n g , d a n t e k n i k p e m b u a t a n D i f f u s i o n I n d e x (DIj. B a g i a n y a n g k e t i g a t e n t a n g P r o y e k S E P I A I n d o n e s i a .

2 . B u s i n e s s C y c l e d a n K e g u n a a n n y a

A m e r i k a m e m p u n y a i i n d i k a t o r y a n g b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n B u s i n e s s - C y c l e b u l a n a n s e j a k 1 9 5 t a h u n y a n g l a l u , y a i t u s e j a k t a h u n 1 7 9 0 d a n d i g a m b a r k a n s e c a r a j e l a s d e n g a n j u d u l " A m e r i c a n B u s i n e s s A c t i v i t y S i n c e 1 7 9 0 " . D a r i p e n y a j i a n t e r s e b u t t e r l i h a t b a h w a p a d a 1 7 9 3 a d a r e s e s i e k o n o m i k a r e n a p e r a n g P e r a n c i s d a n I n g g r i s y a n g d i i k u t i m a s a k e j a y a a n 1 7 9 3 - 1 7 9 6 y a n g d i s e b u t " S E A B O R N E C O M M E R C E P R O S P E R I T Y " d a n s e t e r u s n y a h i n g g a p e n y a j i a n y a n g t e r a k h i r d e n g a n r e s e s i 1 9 4 9 d a n k e j a y a a n K o r e a ( K o r e a n b o o m ) . ' S e l a n j u t n y a p e n y a j i a n d a l a m b e n t u k t a b e l b i s a d i i k u t i p a d a M o o r e ^ y a n g m e n y a j i k a n t e n t a n g B.C. e k s p a n s i d a n k o n t r a k s i y a n g d i p e r i n c i m e n u r u t k e j a d i a n P e a k s d a n T r o u g h s , s e r t a l a m a n y a d a l a m b u l a n m a s a k o n t r a k s i ( P e a k k e T r o u g h ) , m a s a e k s p a n s i ( T r o u g h k e P e a k ) , d a n C y c l e s y a n g t e r d i r i d a r i T r o u g h k e T r o u g h , a t a u P e a k k e P e a k b e r i k u t n y a . P a d a t a b e l e r s e b u t d i s a j i k a n s e j a k k e j a d i a n B.C. t a h u n 1 8 3 4 h i n g g a t a h u n 1 9 8 1 . K e a d a a n y a n g t e r a k h i r k a l i t e r c a t a t p a d a N B E R , p a d a p u b i i k a s i t e r s e b u t , i a l a h r e s e s i t a h u n 1 9 8 0 d i m a n a t r o u g h t e r j a d i p a d a b u l a n J u l i 1 9 8 0 d e n g a n m a s a k o n t r a k s i e n a m b u l a n s e b e l u m n y a d a n d i i k u t i m a s a e k s p a n s i 1 2 b u l a n k e m u d i a n h i n g g a b u l a n D e s e m b e r 1 9 8 2 ( a n g k a t e n t a t i v e ) . D e n g a n k e n y a t a a n d i a t a s t e r n y a t a s a n g a t l a h p e n t i n g a r t i n y a i n d i k a t o r " B u s i n e s s C y c l e " y a n g m e r u p a k a n r i n g -k a s a n s e l u r u h i n d i k a t o r p e r g e r a k a n p e r e k o n o m i a n s u a t u b a n g s a k h u s u s n y a d a l a m b i d a n g u s a h a . U n t u k k e p e r i u a n i n i m a k a p a d a b a g i a n i n i d i b a h a s t e n ­t a n g k o n s e p d a n d e f i n i s i B u s i n e s s C y c l e , p e n y u s u n a n , p e n y a j i a n , d a n p e n g ­g u n a a n n y a .

2.1. Konsep dan Definisi

U r a i a n d i a t a s s e b e n a r n y a m e n u n j u k k a n a d a n y a s u a t u p e r g e r a k a n y a n g n a i k d a n t u r u n d i m a n a p u n c a k p e r g e r a k a n d i s e b u t P e a k d a n dasa r p e r g e r a k a n y a n g d i c a p a i s u a t u saa t d i s e b u t T r o u g h d a r i s u a t u i n d e k s y a n g m e r u p a k a n k u m p u l a n d a r i s e m u a a t a u s e k e l o m p o k y a n g m e w a k i l i p e r g e r a k a n a k t i v i t a s e k o n o m i s u a t u b a n g s a k h u s u s n y a d i b i d a n g u s a h a . K e n y a t a a n i n i b i a s a n y a d i s e b u t B u s i n e s s - C y c l e . M o o r e p a d a b u k u n y a m e n u l i s t e n t a n g d e f i n i s i B u s i n e s s - C y c l e s s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

1 Estey, J .A . 1956 "BUSINESS C Y C L E S Their Nature, cause and control" Englewood Cliffs N.J.

2 Moore, G.H. "Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting" NBER-lnc. 1983.

E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5 3 7 3

B u s i n e s s C y c l e s a r e a t y p e o f f l u c t u a t i o n f o u n d i n t h e a g g r e g a t e e c o ­n o m i c a c t i v i t y o f n a t i o n s t h a t o r g a n i z e d t h e i r w o r k m a i n l y i n b u s i n e s s e n t e r p r i c e s : a c y c l e c o n s i s t s o f e x p a n s i o n s o c c u r r i n g a t a b o u t t h e s a m e t i m e i n m a n y e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t i e s , f o l l o w e d b y s i m i l a r l y g e n e r a l r e ­c e s s i o n s , c o n t r a c t i o n s , a n d r e v i v a l s w h i c h m e r g e i n t o t h e e x p a n s i o n p h a s e o f t h e n e x t c y c l e s ; t h i s s e q u e n c e o f c h a n g e s i n r e c u r r e n t b u t n o t p e r i o d i c ; i n d u r a t i o n b u s i n e s s c y c l e s v a r y f r o m m o r e t h a n o n e y e a r t o t e n o r t w e l v e y e a r s ; t h e y a r e n o t d i v i s i b l e i n t o s h o r t e r c y c l e s o f s i m i l a r c h a r a c t e r w i t h a m p l i t u d e s a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e i r o w n .

D e f i n i s i i n i d i s u s u n o l e h A r t h u r F . B u m s d a n W e s l e y C . M i t c h e l l p a d a t a h u n 1 9 4 6 y a n g m e r u p a k a n m o d i f i k a s i d a r i d e f i n i s i N a t i o n a l B u r e a u p a d a t a h u n 1 9 2 7 .

J a d i j e l a s n y a d e f i n i s i d a r i B u s i n e s s - C y c l e s y a n g m e r u p a k a n s u a t u j e n i s fiuktuasi y a n g t e r d a p a t p a d a k u m p u l a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i s u a t u b a n g s a k h u ­s u s n y a p a d a b i d a n g u s a h a . K o n s e p d a r i k u m p u l a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i ( a g g r e ­g a t e e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y ) b e l u m a d a d e f i n i s i y a n g b a k u , k a r e n a s e b e n a r n y a t i d a k a d a s a t u u k u r a n u n t u k m e l i h a t k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i s u a t u b a n g s a . T e r s i r a t p a d a d e f i n i s i t e r s e b u t k o n s e p y a n g m e n y a t a k a n k e b a n y a k a n k e g i a t a n - k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i m e m p u n y a i k e s a m a a n , y a i t u a d a n y a p e r g e r a k a n e k s p a n s i d a n se­l a n j u t n y a k o n t r a k s i . U n t u k u k u r a n i n i d i p e r g u n a k a n s u a t u u k u r a n y a n g d i s e b u t D i f u s i o n I n d e x (DI).

A l a s a n p e n g g u n a a n k a t a " B u s i n e s s " a d a l a h k a r e n a I n d i k a t o r i n i d i u k u r d a r i k e g i a t a n - k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i s u a t u b a n g s a k h u s u s n y a d i b i d a n g u s a h a ( B u s i n e s s ) . A d a p u n p e n g g u n a a n k a t a " C y c l e " t e r j a d i k a r e n a p o l a p e r g e r a k a n y a n g d i p e l a j a r i t e r d i r i d a r i r e n t e t a n p e r g e r a k a n y a n g n a i k ( e k s p a n s i ) d a r i T r o u g h k e P e a k k e m u d i a n t u r u n ( k o n t r a k s i ) d a r i P e a k k e T r o u g h b e r i k u t n y a . S u a t u g e r a k a n s i k l i s m e l e w a t i s a t u c y c l e d i m a n a p e r g e r a k a n t e r s e b u t b e r ­g e r a k s e c a r a b e r u r u t a n d a r i T r o u g h k e P e a k k e m u d i a n k e T r o u g h b e r i k u t n y a , a t a u p e r g e r a k a n s e c a r a b e r u r u t a n d a r i P e a k k e T r o u g h k e m u d i a n k e P e a k b e r i k u t n y a . A p a b i l a d i g a m b a r k a n s e p e r t i p a d a G a m b a r 1 .

G e r a k a n c y c l i s d a r i B u s i n e s s C y c l e t e r j a d i s e c a r a t e r u s m e n e r u s t e t a p i t i d a k u s a h p e r i o d i k ; w a k t u s i k l i s n y a b e r b e d a - b e d a l e b i h d a r i s a t u t a h u n s a m p a i s e p u l u h a t a u d u a b e l a s t a h u n . A d a p u n u n g k a p a n y a n g t e r a k h i r " t h e y a r e n o t d i v i s i b l e i n t o s h o r t e r c y c l e s o f s i m i l a r c h a r a c t e r w i t h a m p l i t u d e s a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e i r o w n " b e r a r t i b a h w a s e b a g a i c o n t o h j i k a s u a t u e k s p a n s i y a n g p a n j a n g a d a d i t e n g a h d i s t o r s i , m i s a l n y a l e k u k a n m e n u r u n , m a k a l e -k u k a n t e r s e b u t d i a n g g a p s u a t u k o n t r a k s i j i k a m i n i m a l s a m a b e s a r n y a d e n g a n k o n t r a k s i y a n g t e r d a p a t p a d a s i k l i s - s i k l i s y a n g a d a p a d a p e r i o d e p e n e l i t i a n .

3 7 4 E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5

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Gambar 1. Business Cycle.

T e r m i n o l o g i P e a k j u g a b i a s a d i s e b u t u p s w i n g , a t a u p r o s p e r i t y . T r o u g h j u g a d i s e b u t d o w n s w i n g .

B e b e r a p a k o n s e p d a n d e f i n i s i I a i n n y a y a n g b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n B u s i n e s s C y c l e d i a n t a r a n y a a d a l a h :

P e a k : a d a l a h t i t i k b a l i k a t a s a t a u p u n c a k d a r i s u a t u c y c l e .

T r o u g h : a d a l a h t i t i k b a l i k b a w a h a t a u p a l u n g d a r i s u a t u c y c l e .

I n f l e c t i o n : a d a l a h " u p t u m i n f l e c t i o n p o i n t " y a n g m e r u p a k a n t i t i k b e l o k p o i n t d i d a l a m e k s p a n s i a t a u t i t i k b e l o k y a n g t e r d a p a t a n t a r a t r o u g h

d a n p e a k . S e d a n g k a n " d o w n t u r n i n f l e c t i o n p o i n t " a d a l a h t i t i k b e l o k p a d a k o n t r a k s i a t a u t i t i k b e l o k y a n g t e r d a p a t a n t a r a p e a k d a n t r o u g h .

R e v i v a l : a d a l a h m a s a b a n g k i t p a d a p e r m u l a a n e k s p a n s i . T e p a t n y a p e r ­g e r a k a n d a r i t r o u g h h i n g g a " u p t u r n i n f l e c t i o n p o i n t " .

R e c e s s i o n : a d a l a h p e r i o d e m e n u r u n n y a o u t p u t s e c a r a b e r s a m a - s a m a d a n p e n d a p a t a n , k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a d a n p e r d a g a n g a n . B i a s a n y a m e m a k a n w a k t u a n t a r a e n a m s a m p a i s a t u t a h u n d i t a n d a i d e n g a n b a n y a k n y a p e n u r u n a n - p e n u r u n a n o u t p u t d i s e k t o r -s e k t o r e k o n o m i .

D e p r e s s i o n : a d a l a h b e n t u k r e s e s i y a n g s a n g a t p a r a h b i a s a n y a d i s e b u t " a B i g M a c r e c e s s i o n " .

T e r m i n o l o g i e k s p a n s i a k a n m e m u a t a r t i d i d a l a m n y a r e c o v e r y , u p t u r n , r e v i v a l , s e d a n g k a n k o n t r a k s i a k a n m e m u a t a r t i d i d a l a m n y a R e s e s i , d e p r e s i , k r i s i s , d o w n t u r n .

E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5 3 7 5

2.2. Penyusunan dan Penyajian

B u s i n e s s C y c l e m u l a i d i p e l a j a r i d a n d i s u s u n o l e h N a t i o n a l B u r e a u o f E c o n o m i c R e s e a r c h y a n g b i a s a n y a d i p e n d e k k a n m e n j a d i N B E R s e j a k t a h u n 1 9 2 0 . S e b a g a i p i o n e r d a l a m B u s i n e s s C y c l e a d a l a h W e s l e y C . M i t c h e l l d a n A r t h u r F . B u r n s ; k e m u d i a n o l e h G e o f f r e y H . M o o r e d a n s a m p a i s e k a r a n g s u d a h b a n y a k p e n g i k u t - p e n g i k u t n y a .

U n t u k m e n y u s u n i n d i k a t o r B u s i n e s s C y c l e m a k a d i p e r l u k a n b a n y a k d a t a s e r i e s t e n t a n g k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i y a n g b a i k d a n c u k u p p a n j a n g . S e c a r a t e o r i t i s s u a t u d a t a se r i e s t e r s u s u n d a r i l i m a k o m p o n e n i a l a h t r a d i n g - d a y , m u s i m a n , t r e n d , s i k l i s d a n r a n d o m . S e r i e s b i a s a n y a d i p r o s e s a g a r k o m p o n e n a t a u p e n g a r u h t r a d i n g d a y , s e a s o n a l d a n r a n d o m h i l a n g , s e h i n g g a s e r i e s y a n g a d a t i n g g a l t r e n d d a n s i k l i s . P r o s e s i n i d i l a k u k a n p a d a s e m u a s e r i e s y a n g a d a d a l a m p e n e l i t i a n . K a r e n a t i d a k s e m u a s e r i e s m e m p u n y a i k o m p o n e n s i k l i s m a k a s e l a n j u t n y a d i a d a k a n p e n y a r i n g a n n y a d a n k e m u d i a n d i p i l i h s e r i e s y a n g b i s a m e w a k i l i p o l a p e r g e r a k a n p e r e k o n o m i a n s e c a r a u m u m t e r ­u t a m a d i b i d a n g u s a h a . S e r i e s - s e r i e s i n i a k h i r n y a d i k e l o m p o k k a n m e n j a d i t i g a y a n g t e r d i r i d a r i " l e a d i n g , c o i n c i d e n t d a n l a g g i n g " .

S e r i e s d a l a m k e l o m p o k l e a d i n g m a k s u d n y a a d a l a h s e r i e s y a n g m e r u p a ­k a n i n d i k a t o r y a n g b e r g e r a k l e b i h d u l u d a r i p e r g e r a k a n d u n i a u s a h a s e c a r a u m u m ( g e n e r a l b u s i n e s s m o v e m e n t ) , s e d a n g k a n k e l o m p o k c o i n c i d e n t m e r u p a ­k a n i n d i k a t o r y a n g b e r g e r a k b e r s a m a a n d e n g a n p e r g e r a k a n u m u m d u n i a u s a h a , d a n k e l o m p o k l a g g i n g b e r g e r a k k e m u d i a n m e n g i k u t i p e r g e r a k a n k e l o m p o k c o i n c i d e n t . K e t i g a k e l o m p o k i n i m a s i n g - m a s i n g d i s a j i k a n d a l a m b e n t u k a g r e g a t y a n g d i s e b u t " D i f f u s i o n I n d e x " . P o l a y a n g i d e a l m e n g e n a i k e t i g a k e l o m p o k i n i a d a l a h s e p e r t i p a d a G a m b a r 2 y a n g d i a m b i l d a r i D o o d y F . S . ^ B e b e r a p a b u l a n s e t e l a h B u s i n e s s C y c l e , m a k a p o l a p e r g e r a k a n d a r i d i f f u s i o n i n d e x (DI) d a r i l a g g i n g i n d i k a t o r m u l a i n a i k . K e m u d i a n s e t e l a h h a m p i r s e m u a l a g g i n g i n d i k a t o r b i s a d i a n g g a p n a i k s e m u a n y a , d a l a m h a l i n i t e r -w a k i l i o l e h Dl-nya n a i k s e k i t a r 2 5 p e r s e n , m a k a DI d a r i l e a d i n g i n d i k a t o r m u l a i m e n u r u n . P a d a p h a s e i n i k e g i a t a n B u s i n e s s t e t a p d a l a m k e a d a a n , e k s p a n s i , n a m u n s u d a h m e l a m b a n s e h i n g g a b e b e r a p a w a k t u k e m u d i a n DI d a r i c o i n c i d i n g i n d i k a t o r j u g a m u l a i m e n u r u n .

K e a d a a n DI d a r i l a g g i n g m a s i h m e n a i k p a d a w a k t u D Z - l e a d i n g d a n Z ) / - c o i n c i d i n g m e n u m n . K e m u d i a n p a d a w a k t u D / - c o i n c i d i n g m e n u r u n h i n g g a m e m o t o n g g a r i s 5 0 p e r s e n m a k a Z ) / - l a g g i n g m u l a i m e n u r u n , s e h i n g g a k e t i g a - t i g a n y a b e r s a m a - s a m a m e n u r u n . M a k a p a d a w a k t u i t u m a s a e k s p a n s i

3 Doody F.S. "Introduction to the use of Economic Indicators" Random House, N.Y., 1965.

3 7 6 E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5

Gambar 2. Pola pergerakan diffusion Index dari kelompok indikator lagging dan coinciding yang ideal

Leading 1, 2, 8 D I kelompok indikator lagging, balik pada T d a n f

Coincidental 4, 5, 6 D I kelompok indikator leading, balik berla-wanan kelompok lagging

Lagging 7, 8, 9 D I kelompok indikator coinciding, balik se-telab kelompok leading

10, 11, 12 D I kelompok coinciding mencapai sekitar 50 persen antara trough dan peak

m e n c a p a i PEAK d a n m e m b a l i k m u l a i f a se k o n t r a k s i . K e m u d i a n b e b e r a p a w a k t u k e m u d i a n Z ) / - l e a d i n g m u l a i m e n a i k , d i s u s u l ^ / - c o i n c i d i n g . P a d a w a k t u / ? / - c o i n c i d i n g m e n c a p a i g a r i s 5 0 p e r s e n m a k a / ) / - l a g g i n g m u l a i m e n a i k y a n g b e r a r t i m a s a k o n t r a k s i h a b i s d a n m a s a e k s p a n s i b e r i k u t n y a m u l a i m e n a i k .

P e r k i r a a n y a n g i d e a l i n i a k a n m e n o l o n g p a d a w a k t u m e n g a p l i k a s i k a n p a d a d a t a y a n g s e b e n a r n y a , w a l a u p u n p a d a k e n y a t a a n n y a t i d a k a k a n d i d a p a t -k a n n i l a i DI s a m a d e n g a n n o l a t a u s e r a t u s .

2.3. Kegunaan

D e n g a n a d a n y a i n d i k a t o r B u s i n e s s - C y c l e y a n g d a p a t d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e l i h a t i l u k t u a s i d a r i k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i s u a t u b a n g s a s e c a r a k e s e l u r u h a n t e r u t a m a d a l a m b i d a n g u s a h a s e c a r a k e s e l u r u h a n , m a k a p a r a a n a l i s j u g a m e n g g i i n a k a n n y a u n t u k h a l - h a l l a i n y a n g s e h u b u n g a n d e n g a n p e r g e r a k a n

E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5 3 7 7

p e r e k o n o m i a n t e r s e b u t , k h u s u s n y a y a n g b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n m a s a k o n t r a k s i . P e n g g u n a a n y a n g s u d a h d i l a k u k a n d i a n t a r a n y a a d a l a h :

— M e n d e t e k s i s u a t u k o n t r a k s i a p a k a h R e s e s i a t a u k a h D e p r e s i . — M e n e n t u k a n t i m i n g y a n g t e p a t k a p a n m u l a i d a n b e r a k h i r n y a s u a t u r e s e s i . — M e n e n t u k a n s i g n a l ( t a n d a ) s u a t u k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i t e r u t a m a d i b i d a n g

u s a h a d e n g a n p e n g e m b a n g a n k r i t e r i a - k r i t e r i a b a r u d a r i R e s e s i d a n P e m u -l i h a n . I n i t e l a h d i k e m b a n g k a n o l e h V i c t o r Z a r n o w i t z d a n G e o f f r e y H . M o o r e p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 0 .

— M e l i h a t i n t e r d e p e n d e n s i p e r g e r a k a n a k t i v i t a s p e r e k o n o m i a n t e r u t a m a d i b i d a n g u s a h a a n t a r b a n g s a m e l a l u i i n d i k a t o r B u s i n e s s C y c l e . S a m p a i s aa t

— i n i h a l i n i b a r u d i l a k u k a n a n t a r n e g a r a m a j u . K a r e n a n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g b e l u m m e m p u n y a i i n d i k a t o r B u s i n e s s - C y c l e . N e g a r a - n e g a r a m a j u t e r s e b u t a n t a r a l a i n A m e r i k a , C a n a d a , E n g l a n d , J e r m a n B a r a t , P e r a n c i s , I t a l i a d a n J e p a n g .

— P e n y a j i a n d a l a m b e n t u k i n d i k a t o r B u s i n e s s C y c l e s e c a r a s e k t o r a l , m i s a l n y a d i s e k t o r k e t e n a g a k e r j a a n ; P a s a r s t o c k , h a r g a p r o f i t s , d a n l a i n s e b a g a i n y a ; j u g a i n f l a s i ; p r o d u k s i ; d a n l a i n - l a i n n y a .

— P e n g g u n a a n B u s i n e s s - C y c l e u n t u k f o r e c a s t i n g j a n g k a p e n d e k a t a u s h o r t t e r m F o r e c a s t i n g .

— S e b a g a i d a s a r p e m b u a t a n k e b i j a k a n P e m e r i n t a h d a l a m m e n s t a b l l k a n p e r ­e k o n o m i a n d l b i d a n g P r o d u k s i , I n v e s t a s i d a n l a i n s e b a g a i n y a .

— S e b a g a i d a s a r p e m b u a t a n n e r a c a k e r j a s a m a a n t a r b a n g s a , d i b i d a n g e k o ­n o m i , I n v d s t a s l d a n l a i n s e b a g a i n y a .

3 . T e k n i k P e n y u s u n a n B u s i n e s s - C y c l e s ( B . C . )

B u s i n e s s c y c l e s p e r t a m a k a i l d i s u s u n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 3 7 , p a d a w a k t u I t u o l e h N a t i o n a l B u r e a u o f E c o n o m i c R e s e a r c h t e l a h d i k u m p u l k a n s e b a n y a k 4 8 7 A m e r i c a n S e r i e s d a t a b u l a n a n a t a u k w a r t a l . S e r i e s t e r s e b u t t e r d i r i d a r i p r o d u k s i , k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a , h a r g a , d a n s e b a g a i n y a . M i t c h e l l , B u m s d a n k a w a n -k a w a n n y a p a d a w a k t u i t u t e l a h b e r h a s i l m e n s e l e k s i s e b a n y a k 7 1 s e r i e s y a n g m e w a k i l i t e n t a n g k e a d a a n p e r e k o n o m i a n k h u s u s n y a d i b i d a n g u s a h a . T u j u h -p u i u h s a t u s e r i e s t e r s e b u t d i t u i i s k a n i e n g k a p d e n g a n s i f a t - s i f a t s i k l i s n y a d a n d i k l a s i f i k a s i k a n m e n j a d i 4 9 s e r i e s y a n g m e r u p a k a n l e a d i n g d a n s e l e b i h n y a m e r u p a k a n c o i n c i d e n t d a n l a g g i n g . S i f a t - s i f a t t e r s e b u t t e r d i r i d a r i p e r i o d e d a r i s i k l i s , b a n y a k n y a s i k l i s , r a t a - r a t a l e a d a t a u l a g , r a t a - r a t a d e v i a s i , j a n g k a u -a n d a r i l e a d d a n l a g , t i m i n g , e r r a t i c i t y , d a n a m p l i t u d e d a r i s i k l i s . H a s i l d i a t a s i e n g k a p d e n g a n m e t o d e s e r t a k r i t e r i a p e n s e i e k s i a n n y a d i t e r b i t k a n s e b a g a i B u l l e t i n p a d a b u l a n M e i 1 9 3 8 . K r i t e r i a y a n g d i p a k a i u n t u k m e n s e l e k s i 7 1 s e r i e s d a r i 4 8 7 a d a l a h :

3 7 8 E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5

— M e n c a k u p s e l a m a 5 0 t a h u n — A d a b u l a n - b u l a n t e r t e n t u y a n g m e r u p a k a n s e n t r a l d a r i m a s a k e b a n g -

k i t a n a t a u p u n r e s e s i . — T a k a d a g e r a k a n e r r a t i c — K e a d a a n s i k h s n y a t a m p a k j e i a s , d a n a m p i i t u d o n y a j u g a j e i a s u n t u k

p e r u b a h a n b e r i k u t n y a . — S e r i e s a k a n m e n g i k u t i k e a d a a n k e g i a t a n - k e g i a t a n b i d a n g u s a h a s e c a r a

u m u m u n t u k m e n e t a p k a n p o i a b e r i k u t n y a .

K e g i a t a n p e n s e i e k s i a n i n i d i i a n j u t k a n h i n g g a d a r i 7 1 v a r i a b e i t e r p i i i h m e n j a d i 2 1 v a r i a b e i y a n g b i s a m e w a k i i i p o i a p e r g e r a k a n p e r e k o n o m i a n b i d a n g u s a h a d i A m e r i k a , b a h k a n p a d a w a k t u i t u t e i a h d i s a j i k a n d a f t a r s e b a b - s e b a b p o i a p e r g e r a k a n t e r s e b u t , d e n g a n m e n g g a m b a r d i a g r a m g a r i s s e t i a p s e r i e s n y a . P e m i b b a n i n i d i i a k u k a n d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n k r i t e r i a - k r i t e r i a p a d a s e r i e s y a n g m e m e n u h i .

— R a t a - r a t a i e a d p a d a k e b a n g k i t a n m a s a i a i u n y a i e b i h p a n j a n g . — R a t a - r a t a i e a d t e r s e b u t i e b i h h o m o g e n . — K e a d a a n " s i k i i s k h u s u s " m e m p u n y a i s i f a t y a n g s e i a r a s d e n g a n B.C. — B i s a d i t e n t u k a n i e b i h j e i a s " S i k i i s k h u s u s n y a " . — T i n g k a t e r r a t i k i e b i h i e m a h d i b a n d i n g a m p i i t u d o d a r i " s i k i i s . k h u s u s -

n y a " . — L e b i h s e d i k i t p e r u b a h a n a r a h p a d a s e t i a p t a h u n n y a . — L e b i h k e c i i d a n i e b i h t e r a t u r s e a s o n a l v a r i a s i n y a , d a i a m h a i i n i y a n g

h a r u s d i b u a n g s e b e i u m d i a n a i i s a " S i k i i s k h u s u s n y a " . — L e b i h b a n y a k j u m l a h k e m u n d u r a n / p e n u r u n a n y a n g t e r c a k u p p a d a

s e r i e s . — L e b i h j a u h k e b e i a k a n g p a d a s e m b a r a n g i r r a g u i a r i t i e s b e r s e s u a i a n

d e n g a n m a s a k e b a n g k i t a n B.C., y a n g t e r j a d i . — S e r i e s m e n c a k u p k e g i a t a n y a n g i e b i h l u a s . — S e r i e s i e b i h s t a b i l , d a n p r o s e s e k o n o m i i e b i h n y a t a d i m u a t n y a .

S e l a n j u t n y a p e n e n t u a n t e n t a n g k l a s i f i k a s i m e n j a d i l e a d i n g g r o u p , C o i n c i d e n t G r o u p , d a n l a g g i n g g r o u p j u g a d i s a j i k a n d e n g a n k r i t e r i a y a n g m e n c a k u p t i ­m i n g d a n k e s e s u a i a n n y a . P e n e n t u a n i n i p a d a s e j a r a h n y a t i d a k m u d a h d a n u n t u k p e r i o d e s e l a n j u t n y a j u g a a k a n b e r u b a h , b a i k b a n y a k n y a s e r i e s m a u p u n j e n i s n y a a p a k a h l e a d i n g , c o i n c i d e n t m a u p u n l a g g i n g . S e b a g a i c o n t o h u n t u k A m e r i k a p a d a m u i a n y a t e r d i r i d a r i 2 1 v a r i a b e i , 8 l e a d i n g , 8 c o i n c i d e n t d a n 5 l a g g i n g p a d a s aa t i n i m e n j a d i 2 4 v a r i a b l e s , 1 2 l e a d i n g , 6 c o i n c i d e n t d a n 6 l a g g i n g . U n t u k J e p a n g b a h k a n t e i a h b e r u b a h b e b e r a p a k a l i y a n g m u i a n y a

E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5 3 7 9

s a m a d e n g a n A m e r i k a , m a k a p a d a r e v i s i t e r a k h i r i a i a h a k h i r t a h u n 1 9 8 3 m e n ­j a d i 3 0 v a r i a b e i y a i t u 1 2 l e a d i n g , 1 1 c o i n c i d e n t d a n 7 l a g g i n g .

D a f t a r i n d i k a t o r B u s i n e s s C y c l e y a n g t e r a k h i r p a d a p e r t e n g a h a n t a h u n 1 9 8 3 u n t u k A m e r i k a d a n J e p a n g b i s a d i i i h a t p a d a l a m p i r a n 1 . O l e h k e m a j u a n t e k n i s y a n g a d a b i l a p a d a t a h u n e m p a t p u i u h a n i n d i k a t o r fi.C h a n y a b e r k i s a r t e n t a n g m a s a k e b a n g k i t a n d a n m a s a r e s e s i , m a k a s e k a r a n g i n d i k a t o r - i n d i k a t o r y a n g d i h a s i l k a n d a n d i s a j i k a n d a r i B.C. i n i b e r k e m b a n g i e b i h j a u h . D i a n t a r a ­n y a , p e n e n t u a n i n f l e c t i o n p o i n t , a g r e g a t e - i n d e k s y a n g d i s e b u t D i f f u s i o n I n d e x , b a h k a n J e p a n g s e n d i r i ( E P A - E c o n o m j c P l a n n i n g A g e n c y ) s e d a n g m e n g a j u k a n u k u r a n a g r e g a t e i a l a h C o m p o s i t e - I n d e x , w a l a u p u n d i r a s a s a n g a t s u h t d a i a m m e n e n t u k a n b o b o t n y a .

3.1. Ringkasan Series

P a d a t a h u n 1 9 5 0 B U R N S m e m b u a t i e b i h d a r i 6 0 0 s e r i e s s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 1 9 - 1 9 3 9 y a n g t e r d i r i d a r i p e r s e n t a s e s e r i e s y a n g b e r p u n c a k ( p e a k ) p a d a s e t i a p t a h u n n y a , p e r s e n t a s e s e r i e s y a n g m e n c a p a i d a s a r ( t r o u g h ) , d a n d i h i t u n g j u g a s e h s i h n y a , k e t i g a n y a d i g a m b a r k a n s e p e r t i p a d a G a m b a r 3 . D a r i g a m b a r t e r s e b u t b i s a d i d e t e k s i t e n t a n g p o i a s i k i i s d i A m e r i k a s e l a m a k u r u n w a k t u 1 9 1 9 - 1 9 3 9

D i s a m p i n g i t u d a r i 6 0 0 s e r i e s i n i d i h i t u n g j u g a h a i - h a i s e b a g a i b e r i k u t : P e r t a m a p e r s e n t a s e b a n y a k n y a s e r i e s y a n g s e d a n g m e n g a l a m i e k s p a n s i ( e x ­p a n d i n g ) , i a i a h s a m a d e n g a n p e r s e n t a s e b a n y a k n y a s e r i e s y a n g m e n g a l a m i e k s p a n s i p a d a p e r i o d e s e b e i u m n y a , d i t a m b a b p e r s e n t a s e b a n y a k n y a s e r i e s y a n g m e n c a p a i d a s a r ( t r o u g h ) p a d a p e r i o d e s e b e i u m n y a d a n d i k u r a n g i p e r ­s e n t a s e b a n y a k n y a s e r i e s y a n g m e n c a p a i p u n c a k ( p e a k ) p a d a p e r i o d e s e b e i u m ­n y a j u g a . S e c a r a m a t e m a t i s b i s a d i t u i i s k a n :

K v d u a d i h i t u n g s e l i s i h p e r s e n t a s e b a n y a k n y a s e r i e s y a n g s e d a n g m e n g a l a m i e k s p a n s i d a n k o n t r a k s i ( c o n t r a c t i n g ) .

H a l i n i j u g a b i s a d i r u m u s k a n d a l a m b e n t u k s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

K e t i g a d i h i t u n g k u m u l a t i v e d a r i b a s i l k e d u a d i a t a s i a l a h : n n-1

K (e,-C,) = K 4 2 $0 T,; T, -t^-P^

380 E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5

» I 9 -20 -It '22 ' Z J -l* 'Zi "Zt ZZ •28 'ZS 'SO J l ' i Z '33 '8* "35 "36 '37 "38 '39

Gambar 3. Distribusi persentase titik-titik balik dari 600 series periode 1919-39.

A Persentase series yang mencapai puncak (Peak) B Persentase series yang mencapai dasar (Tr ou^) C Selisih persentase series yang mencapai puncak dan series yang mencapai dasar.

Dikutip dari Morre (1961) hal 15.

d i m a n a :

= p e r s e n t a s e b a n y a k n y a e k s p a n s i ( e x p a n d i n g ) p a d a b u l a n k e n

- p e r s e n t a s e b a n y a k n y a k o n t r a k s i ( c o n t r a c t i n g ) p a d a b u l a n k e n

= p e r s e n t a s e b a n y a k n y a t r o u g h b u l a n k e n

= p e r s e n t a s e b a n y a k n y a p e a k b u l a n k e «

K = k o n s t a n

E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5 31 1

X

i 9 i » 'zo ' z i "zz ' z j -i* -ti ' z s 'ZT 'ze -zs 'so. ' S I j z • « ' i A - ss "ss '37 "s* -yt

Gambar 4. Persentase series yang sedang mengalami ekspansi dan kumulatifnya dari 600 series, periode 1919-39,

A Persentase series yang sedang mengalami ekspansi \ B Selisili persentase series yang sedang mengalami ekspansi dan yang sedang

mengalami kontraksi. C Kinnulatif dari B.

K E T E R A N G A N : Daerah yang diarsir menunjukkan masa kontraksi dari Business Cycle.

Dikutip dari Morre (1961), hab l ^ f e i / o , ,

H a s i l h i t u n g a n i n i d i s a j i k a n padk't}£imBaf 4 ' ^ 6 c a r a b e r u r u t a n m a s i n g - m a s i n g d e n g a n s i m b u l A, B d a n C. G a m b a r i n i m e n u n j u i c k a n k a p a n m a s a k o n t r a k s i ( d a e r a h y a n g d i a r s i r ) d a n k a p a n m a s a e k s p a n s i , t e r u t a m a p a d a k u r v a C.

3 8 2 E K I . V o l . X X X n i , > W o . i 4 , ' 1 9 g 5 }

1

3.2. Diffusion Indeks (Dl) -

P a d a d a t a y a n g s u d a h d i k e l o m p o k k a n p a d a l e a d i n g , c o i n c i d e n t , d a n l a g g i n g o l e h M O O R E d i k e m b a n g k a n c a r a p e n y a j i a n n y a s e c a r a a g g r e g a t e d e n g a n s u a t u i n d e k s y a n g d i s e b u t D i f f u s i o n I n d e k s a t a u DI. DI i n i d i h i t u n g h a n y a d e n g a n m e m p e r h a t i k a n a p a k a h s u a t u s e r i e s n a i k , k o n s t a n a t a u t u r u n . A p a b i l a s e r i e s n a i k d i b e r i t a n d a ( + ) , k o n s t a n ( 0 ) d a n t u r u n ( - ) . P a d a s e t i a p b u l a n n y a n i l a i i n i d i h i t u n g u n t u k s e t i a p s e r i e s p a d a k e l o m p o k t e r s e b u t d a n a k h i r n y a d i h i t u n g r a t a - r a t a h i t u n g n y a d e n g a n s k o r e ( + ) = 1 0 0 , ( 0 ) = 5 0 , ( - ) = 0 , y a n g m e r u p a k a n n i l a i £)/.

Contoh perhitungan DI

T A B E L 1 : Data tinian untuk perhitungan D I

Series B u l a n

Series I a n F e b M a r Apr M e i J u n i J u l i

5 7 2 10 2 2 5

6 6 6 3 4 5 10

^3 10 11 7 12 15 14 14

12 IS 10 11 12 12 17

T A B E L 2 : Prosedur perhitungan D I dari data pada Tabel 1.

Series B u l a n

Series J a n F e b M a r Apr M e i J u n i J u l i

' ' l - +(100) + 0

X2 0(50) 0 + + +

^3 - +(100) + + 0

^4 - +(100) + + 0 +

T 350 50 300 300 200 350

E K I ; V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5

sm lb

383

P e r h i t u n g a n DI m e m e r l u k a n t a b e l p e r t o l o n g a n s e p e r t i T a b e l 1 d a r i T a ­b e l 2 d i m a n a t a n d a u n t u k b u l a n F e b r u a r i u n t u k s e r i e s X j a k a n m e m p u n y a i t a n d a (f) k a r e n a n i l a i n y a - n a i k d i b a n d i n g k a n b u l a n s e b e i u m n y a , s e l a n j u t n y a p a d a b u l a n M a r e t a k a n b e r t a n d a ( - ) d a n s e t e r u s n y a . S e l a n j u t n y a d i h i t u n g n i l a i t o t a l n y a d e n g a n m e n j u m i a h k a n k e b a w a h , s e p e r t i p a d a k o i o m b u l a n F e b r u a r i m a k a a k a n m e m p u n y a i j u m l a h T = 3 5 0 y a n g d i h a s i l k a n d a r i p e n -j u m l a h a n 1 0 0 + 5 0 + 1 0 0 + 1 0 0 . A k h i r n y a n i l a i Z ) / b i s a d i h i t u n g d e n g a n m e n i -b a g i b a n y a k n y a s e r i e s . J a d i p a d a b u l a n F e b r u a r i DI = 3 5 0 / 4 = 8TYi. S e c a r a I e n g k a p b i s a d i i i h a t p a d a t a b e l p e r t o l o n g a n t e r s e b u t .

A k h i r n y a DI i n i d i g a m b a r k a n u n t u k m e l i h a t t e n t a n g p o l a s i k l i s d a r i k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i k h u s u s n y a d u n i a u s a h a s u a t u b a n g s a . D i s i n i d i s a j i k a n s u a t u c o n t o h p a d a G a m b a r 5 y a n g d i a m b i l d a r i M o o r e " B u s i n e s s C y c l e I n d i c a t o r s " V o l I h a l 7 3 . D a r i g a m b a r t e r s e b u t b i s a d i p e r g u n a k a n s e b a g a i a l a t y a n g d i p e r ­g u n a k a n u n t u k m e r i n g k a s p e r g e r a k a n k e l o m p o k s e r i e s , y a n g m e n u n j u k k a n p o l a p e r g e r a k a n e k o n o m i k h u s u s n y a d i b i d a n g u s a h a d a r i t a h u n 1 9 4 8 h i n g g a t a h u n 1 9 5 9 . D a e r a h y a n g d i a r s i r m e r u p a k a n m a s a s u r a m ( C o n t r a c t i o n ) d a n y a n g t i d a k d i a r s i r m e r u p a k a n m a s a c e r a h ( F x p a n s i o n ) .

3.3. Metode Dekomposisi

K a r e n a k e m a j u a n t e k n i k y a n g a d a m a k a p e n y a j i a n d i a t a s m e n j a d i l e b i h s e m p u r n a t e m t a m a d e n g a n a d a n y a s a r a n a k o m p u t e r d a n p a c k a g e p r o g r a m y a n g d i b u a t o l e h p a r a a h l i . Y a n g t a d i n y a h a n y a t e r p i k i r m e n g e n a i p e n g a r u h m u s i m a n y a n g h a r u s d i h i l a n g k a n , t e r n y a t a s e k a r a n g a d a l a g i p e n g a r u h y a n g d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a b a n y a k n y a h a r i u n t u k k e g i a t a n u s a h a t i d a k s a m a p a d a s e t i a p b u l a n n y a , m a k a p e n g a r u h i n i p u n h a r u s d i h i l a n g k a n .

A p a b i l a p e n g a r u h m u s i m a n y a n g m e r u p a k a n p e n g a r u h s i k l i s k u r a n g d a r i s a t u t a h u n y a n g h a r u s d i h i l a n g k a n , m a k a p e n g a r u h h a r i y a n g d i s e b u t T r a d i n g d a y e f f e c t j u g a h a r u s d i h i l a n g k a n . N B F R , I a l a h B i r o y a n g m e n a ­n g a n i t e n t a n g A C . a n a l i s i s d i A m e r i k a t e l a h m e m a s a n g d i k o m p u t e r n y a u n t u k k e b u t u h a n i n i s e j a k t a h u n 1 9 8 1 , y a n g p a d a s a a t i n i a d a d i p a c k a g e V e r s i " S A S " , d a n p r o g r a m d e k o m p o s i s i i n i d i s e b u t C e n s u s M e t h o d X - \ 1 .

P a d a p r i n s i p n y a s e r i e s X^ m e r u p a k a n g a b u n g a n d a r i d a t a :

XJ = TD X Ij X X X

a t a u

XJ = TD + Ij + Tj + Cj+ Ej

d i m a n a

3 8 4 E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5

8 Indikator leading (DI)

s . 4 * 8 Indikator coinciding ( D I )

5 Indikator lagging (DI)

21 Indikator (D/)

21 Indikator dgn. indikator lagging di-shift 4 bulan

° 1948 '49 "50 "51 "52 -53 '54 '55 'Se '57 '58 '59 Gambar 5. Diffusion Indexes dan indikator Business Cycle periode 1948-59.

K E T E R A N G A N : Daerah yang diarsir menunjukkan masa kontraksi dari Business Cycle.

Dikutip. dari Morre (1961) hal. 73. -

XJ = s e r i e s d a t a e k o n o m i

TD = T r a d i n g - D a y

I J = m u s i m a n

Tj = T r e n d

Cj = S i k l i s ( C y c l e s )

Ej = R a n d o m / I r r a g u l a r i t i e s

P r o s e s d i k o m p o s i s i d e n g a n m e t o d e X-11 d a p a t d i g a m b a r k a n s e p e r t i p a d i D i a g r a m A i u r I . D a l a m d i a g r a m t e r s e b u t s u a t u d a t a s e r i e s m e l a l u i p r o s e s

E K I . Vol. XXXIII , No. 4, 1985

t a h a p 1 h i n g g a t a h a p y a n g k e 1 7 d i d e k o m p o s i s i s e h i n g g a d a t a y a n g a d a l i n g g a l k o m p o n e n t r e n d d a n s i k l i s .

A l t e r n a t i f l a i n u n t u k d e k o m p o s i s i d a t a s e l a i n s e p e r t i d i a t a s a d a l a h d e n g a n p e n d e k a t a n T e o r i B A Y E S y a n g d i k e m b a n g k a n o l e h H . A k a i k e , I n s t i ­t u t e o f M a t h e m a t i c a l S t a t i s t i c s , J e p a n g . ' * A k a i k e t e l a h m e n g e m b a n g k a n p a c k a g e p r o g r a m y a n g d i s e b u t " T I M S A C " , s a l a h s a t u p r o g r a m n y a t e n t a n g d e k o m p o s i s i i n i y a n g d i s e b u t " B A Y S E A " . T e o r i B a y e s y a n g d i k e m b a n g k a n -n y a s e j a k 1 9 6 8 k h u s u s n y a d a l a m T i m e S e r i e s A n a l y s i s , p a d a s aa t i n i t e l a h d i a k u i k e b e n a r a n n y a o l e h p a r a a h l i T i m e S e r i e s s e l u r u h d u n i a .

U n t u k t u j u a n p e m b e n t u k a n B.C., d a r i s e r i e s y a n g t e l a h d i k u m p u l k a n k a t a k a n 2 0 0 s e r i e s , m a s i n g - m a s i n g s e r i e s h a r u s d i b u a n g T r a d i n g d a y . S e a s o n a l d a n R a n d o m n y a . S e r i e s y a n g a d a t i n g g a l T r e n d d a n S i k l i s . D a r i 2 0 0 s e r i e s y a n g h a n y a m e m u a t T r e n d d a n S i k l i s d i s e l e k s i b e r d a s a r k a n a d a n y a p e m i l i k ­a n s i k l i s , k a r e n a a d a n y a k e m u n g k i n a n b e s a r b a h w a s u a t u s e r i e s t i d a k m e m ­p u n y a i s i k l i s . K e m u d i a n s e r i e s y a n g s u d a h t e r s e l e k s i d a n m e m p u n y a i s i k l i s , d i s e l e k s i l a g i u n t u k m e n d a p a t k a n p o l a p e r g e r a k a n s e c a r a k e s e l u r u h a n . P o l a p e r g e r a k a n i n i d i b a g i m e n j a d i t i g a k e l o m p o k , y a i t u l e a d i n g , c o i n c i d e n t d a n l a g g i n g . S e l a n j u t n y a d a r i m a s i n g - m a s i n g k e l o m p o k b i s a d i b u a t DI, s e b a g a i u k u r a n a g r e g a s i y a n g a k a n m e m p e r m u d a h p e n g a m a t a n p o l a s i k l i s s e c a r a u m u m s e l a m a p e r i o d e a n a l i s a .

3.4. Metode Alternatif

K a r e n a m a j u n y a i l m u p e n g e t a h u a n y a n g s a n g a t p e s a t d e n g a n s a r a n a k o m p u t e r y a n g b e r i m b a n g , m a k a a l t e r n a t i f y a n g b i s a d i p a k a i u n t u k p e m b e n ­t u k a n B.C. b i s a d i k e m b a n g k a n . S a m p a i s a a t i n i u n t u k b a n y a k n e g a r a m o d e r n y a n g s u d a h m e m p u n y a i i n d i k a t o r B.C., t e l a h d i g u n a k a n m e t o d e s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

- D e k o m p o s i s i d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n X-\ 1 , y a n g m e r u p a k a n d e k o m ­p o s i s i u n t u k m e n y a r i n g s e r i e s - s e r i e s y a n g m e m p u n y a i s i k l i s .

- P e n y a r i n g a n s i k l i s d e n g a n g a m b a r , y a n g m e r u p a k a n m e t o d e v i s u a l s e b a g a i p e l e n g k a p d e n g a n m e t o d e d e k o m p o s i s i .

- P e n s e i e k s i a n s e r i e s s e b a g a i i n d i k a t o r B.C. d e n g a n P a n e l / C o m m i t t e e i a l a h d e n g a n p a n i t i a y a n g d i b e n t u k y a n g t e r d i r i d a r i p a r a a h h e k o n o ­m i u n t u k m e n e n t u k a n a t a u m e n s e l e k s i s e r i e s y a n g t e l a h m e l a l u i p r o s e s d e k o m p o s i s i s e b a g a i i n d i k a t o r B.C.

- P e m b a g i a n k e l o m p o k l e a d i n g , c o i n c i d e n t , d a n l a g g i n g d e n g a n P a n e l / C o m m i t t e e i a l a h s e p e r t i p a d a p r o s e s p e n s e i e k s i a n .

4 Akaike, H. 1980, "Seasonal Adjustment by a Bayesian Modeling", Journal of Time Series Analysis. Vol. 1, no. 1.

3 8 6 E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5

Diagram Aiur 1. Diagram aiur dari proses dekomposisi metode A ' - l l

Data, y,

Trading Days Adjust merit A,.V,.t°'

DESCHtPTION Multiply the dele ol each month by the trediog dey (T O) edjuiimenl coellkient

where Dj is the T-D lor twrtt ol the months, end Bj is the everage, over all years, (or this particular month.

Original Data X, • /, . Tr V C, .V E,

Calculate • 12-month, moving average (12 mo MA) to eliminate the seasonality and some randomness. The trend cycle wHI remain.

Divide the MA into the original dau

m The resulting values are the r i seasonal-irregular componem

Fill in missing values at the beginning and end of series by extrapolation.

Calculate a 3 x TM A |a 3-lerm MA of a 3 tarm moving tveragel-each month separately. This * therandomnesatnl3l.

Calculate the standard deviation (SD) lor each month separately 112 inalll by eimtning the squared difference between/Tf |MAwilh randomneis-(3H and Rj IMA without randtynness 14a) I. Rapiace extreme vaiues ol Rt (3). Compare flf plus or minus two Standard deviations with Rj. II Rt is greater than R} * 2S0 or smaller than Rt - 2SD. its value is rvlaewl by the average of the preceding and following values. Thus, the eHecti ol extraordinary events (strikes, lloodt. wars, etc, ere eliminaled.

y Seasonal Factors

Divide the original data by the saasoe factors of (61. The outcomf is a sario thai is preliminarily adjusted lor

lity.

Pralimtnarv Trend-Cycle Component Fill in missing values at each end ol the series.

Apply the Spencer 15-monlh weighted MA to 17) The result is a smooth saries (with almost all ran­domness eliminaled) thet highlightt the trend cycle component.

Divide M',. (8), into the original data. This effect is the same as in step 13), However. (8) did nol Include season­ality to start with.

Fill in missing values at each and of the series

Final Seasonal Factors Flit in missing values at each end of the series.

3 X 3 (or 5 X T ) MA

ft;-I,

E K I . Vol. XXXIII , No. 4,1985 3 17

1131

F inal SMKmaMy Adjusted Series 1 „ X, /, . J, , 1131

ft, r, (line! result). 1131 (line! result).

1141 values at each end ol the series.

1 F A ; • fr X C,

Apply Spencer ITpoint vreighted

randomness, thus achieving a relined estimate ol trend-cycle dinal result).

(151

f RCi IS an estimate ot the random component It is found by dividing 1131 by (14) .

(151 RCi IS an estimate ot the random component It is found by dividing 1131 by (14) .

(161

Pertorm dlllerent tests to verily that the Estimations ol the seasonal, trendxycle. and rartdom components are correct. Compute months lor cyclical dominance (MCDl, Calculate summary statistics.

Use original data and those of steps (131,1141 and(T51 to obtain results.

1171

Compute a moving average whose length is equal to the months lor cyclical dominance. Update this average to obtain estimates ol trend cycle Use tite seasonal factors projected in 1121 as seasonal indices.

Use the seasonally adjusted data of Step (131. Update this movirtg everage to easily obtain cunent estimates of trend-cycles [i.e . it it used instead of FAf. in (1411.

Dikutip dari Makridakis halaman 166-167.

- T i m i n g / p e n e n t u a n w a k t u k a p a n P e a k , T r o u g h t e r j a d i , d a n P e r k i r a a n m e n d a t a n g a k a n . t e r j a d i d e n g a n P a n e l / C o m m i t t e e .

M e t o d e a l t e r n a t i f u n t u k h a l d i a t a s a d a l a h m e r u p a k a n p e n y e m p u m a a n d i m a n a p a d a s e t i a p t a h a p a n d i a t a s a d a l a h :

- D e k o m p o s i s i d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n X-l 1 a t a u B a y s e a - P e n y a r i n g a n s i k l i s d e n g a n g a m b a r a t a u d e n g a n a n a l y s i s S p e c t r u m - P e n s e i e k s i a n s e r i e s s e b a g a i i n d i k a t o r B.C. d e n g a n P a n e l / C o m m i t t e e

d a n d i t a m b a h k a n d e n g a n a n a l i s a s t a t i s t i k I a i n n y a s e p e r t i k o e f i s i e n k o r e l a s i , r e g r e s i a t a u p u n a n a l y s i s c r o s s - s p e c t r u m

- P e m b a g i a n k e l o m p o k I d a d i n g , c o i n c i d e n t , l a g g i n g d e n g a n P a n e l / C o m m i t t e e d a n a n a l i s a s t a t i s t i k I a i n n y a s e p e t t i k o e f i s i e n k o r e l a s i r e g r e s i a t a u p u n a n a l y s i s c r o s s - s p e c t r u m .

- T i m i n g / P e n e n t u a n k a p a n w a k t u P e a k , T r o u g h t e r j a d i d a n p e r k i r a a n m e n d a t a n g d e n g a n P a n e l / C o m m i t t e e d a n a n a l i s a s t a t i s t i k s e p e r t i p e ­m a s a n g a n m o d e l s t a t i s t i k k h u s u s n y a t i m e - s e r i e s m o d e l .

A n a i i s a - a n a i i s a s t a t i s t i k s e b a g a i p e l e n g k a p d i a t a s d i a n t a r a n y a t e n t a n g s p e c t r u m , k a r e n a S a r g e n t d a i a m t u i i s a n n y a m e n y e b u t k a n b a h w a s u a t u s e r i e s a k a n m e n g a n d u n g s i k i i s , d e n g a n s p e c t r u m n y a m e n g a n d u n g p e a k / i o n c a t a n , s e h i n g g a s a l a h s a t u d e f i n i s i t e n t a n g b u s i n e s s c y c l e s a d a l a h s e r i e s d i m a n a p a d a s p e c t r u m n y a t e r d a p a t p e a k p a d a i n t e r v a l f r e k w e n s i 0 . 0 0 - 0 . 0 8 3 u n t u k d a t a b u l a n a n . S p e c t m m , m e m p a k a n p e n d e k a t a n a n a l y s i s t i m e - s e r i e s d e n g a n p e n d e ­k a t a n f r e k w e n s i . D a r i s p e c t m m , j u g a b i s a d i k e t a h u i r a t a - r a t a s i k l i s y a n g t e r j a d i a t a u s e t i a p b e r a p a b u l a n s i k l i s t e r j a d i . " A n a l y s i s C r o s s - S p e c t r u m " b i s a m e n -

3 8 8 E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5

d e t e k s i t i n g k a t k o r e i a s i d a r i d u a s e r i e s y a n g a d a p a d a s e t i a p f r e k w e n s i y a n g t e r j a d i m e i a i u i f u n g s i C O H E R E N C E . D a r i c r o s s - s p e c t r u m j u g a b i s a d i i i h a t h u b u n g a n i e a d d a n i a g p a d a s e t i a p f r e k w e n s i d a r i g e r a k a n d u a s e r i e s m e i a i u i f u n g s i P H A S E - n y a .

A p a b i i a Xj m e r u p a k a n s e r i e s y a n g s t a s i o n e r , d a i a m h a i i n i a d a i a h d a t a y a n g t i n g g a i s i k l i s n y a s a j a , m a k a a k a n m e m p u n y a i f u n g s i s p e c t r u m s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

J n - 7

f(W = 2 ^ k=0 ^""P (-'^) '(^) ^n(^) ( 6 )

d i m a n a r (k) o t o k o r e i a s i p a d a s e i a n g k, (k) = w i n d o w y a n g d i p e r g u n a k a n . C r o s s - s p e c t r a s e r i e s Xj d a n Yj, y a n g t e r d i r i d a r i b a g i a n f u n g s i r i i i d a n b a g i a n f u n g s i - i m a j i n e r s e c a r a b e r u r u t a n a d a i a h :

1 c(w) = L ? „ r(k) W(k) cos Wk d e n g a n - s - < < 7 r 2 7 r

1

Q(wj = LI'™ r(kj W(k) sin Wk d e n g a n -tr < W <1T 2 n k=-m ( 8 )

D i m a n a r(k) a d a i a h c r o s s - c o r r e l a t i o n d a r i XY p a d a s e i a n g k a t a u i a g k. W(k) a d a i a h w i n d o w y a n g d i p e r g u n a k a n u n t u k e s t i m a s i . D a r i h a s i l c o d a n q u d r a -t u r e s p e c t r u m t e r s e b u t b i s a d i e s t i m a s i k a n f u n g s i C o h e r e n c e d a n P h a s e s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

C o h e r e n c e K o h = = = 4 ( w ; . fy(w) ( 9 )

P h a s e OLfwj = t a n ' l ' '^^^ ( 1 0 ) c(wj

A d a p u n t i m e - s e r i e s m o d e l p a d a s aa t i n i t e i a h d i k e m b a n g k a n o l e h B o x & J e n k i n s d e n g a n A R I M A m o d e l ; a t a u m o d e l A k a i k e , m i s a l n y a AR d e n g a n k r i t e r i a " A I C " ; m o d e l T o n g d e n g a n T h r e s h o l d m o d e l . D u a m o d e l y a n g p e r ­t a m a t e i a h d i p a k a i o l e h b a n y a k f o r e c a s t e r d a n m o d e l b u i l d e r y a n g b e r s a n g ­k u t a n d e n g a n t i m e - s e r i e s a n a l y s i s , k a r e n a u n t u k k e d u a n y a t e l a h t e r s e d i a

E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5 3 8 9

p a c k a g e p r o g r a m n y a p a d a B M D P d a n S P S S v e r s i t e r b a r u . S e d a n g k a n u n t u k m o d e l A k a i k e p a d a p a c k a g e T I M S A C .

4 . P r o y e k S e n i a

P r o y e k S E P I A a t a u S h o r t - T e r m E c o n o m i c P r e d i c t i o n i n A s i a d i s p o n s o r i o l e h I D E a t a u I n s t i t u t e D e v e l o p i n g E c o n o m i e s , T o k y o b e r t u j u a n u n t u k m e m -b e n t u k s e m a c a m B u s i n e s s C y c l e y a n g m e n c a k u p K o r e a , T h a i l a n d , S i n g a p u r a , I n d o n e s i a , I n d i a , P h i l i p i n a d a n M a l a y s i a . P r o y e k i n i d i p e r k i r a k a n m e m e r l u k a n w a k t u 4 t a h u n , 1 9 8 4 s a m p a i d e n g a n 1 9 8 8 . B P S t u r u t s e r t a d a i a m J o i n t P r o y e k s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 8 5 - 1 9 8 7 . T u j u a n u t a m a p r o y e k i n i a d a l a h u n t u k m e m b e n t u k b e r s a m a B.C d a n m e r e n c a n a k a n u n t u k m e m b u a t p r e d i k s i j a n g k a p e n d e k y a n g l e b i h a k u r a t d a r i k e a d a a n e k o n o m i d i A s i a m e l a l u i D i f f u s i o n I n d e x (DI) y a n g d i p u b l i k a s i k a n s e c a r a t e r a t u r . H a l i n i a k a n b e r g u n a k a r e n a m e r u p a k a n r i n g k a s a n p o l a p e r g e r a k a n e k o n o m i s u a t u b a n g s a . D e n g a n t e r s e ­d i a n y a i n d i k a t o r i n i m a k a s e c a r a c e p a t d a n t e p a t P e m e r i n t a h a k a n l e b i h m u d a h u n t u k m e n g i m p l e m e n t a s i k a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n E k o n o m i , p e n e n t u a n p r o d u k s i d a n i n v e s t a s i . B e g i t u p u l a b a g i n e g a r a m a j u d e n g a n m e n g e t a h u i i n d i ­k a t o r i n i a k a n l e b i h m u d a h m e n g a m b i l k e p u t u s a n t e n t a n g w a k t u d a n j u m l a h b a n t u a n , i n v e s t a s i l a n g s u n g d a n s e b a g a i n y a . B a h k a n l e b i h j a u h d a r i i t u b i s a m e n g e t a h u i b a n y a k h a l t e n t a n g k e a d a a n e k o n o m i p a d a m a s a l a l u , a p a k a h p a ­d a s a a t s e k a r a n g d a l a m p o s i s i b a i k a t a u l e s u , d a n j u g a m e r u p a k a n " W a r n i n g " k a l a u k e a d a a n e k o n o m i , k h u s u s n y a d u n i a u s a h a , s e d a n g a t a u a k a n m e n g a l a m i k e l e s u a n .

P r o y e k S E P I A - I n d o n e s i a m e m p u n y a i t a h a p a n s e p e r t i p a d a l a m p i r a n y a n g d i b u a t o l e h O S A D A . U n t u k t a h u n k e d u a p r o y e k — t e n t a n g D a t a Base — d i t e r a p k a n a d a n y a s i s t e m Data Base y a n g b a i k d a n t e r s e n d i r i d i K o m p u t e r B P S , k a r e n a s e k i t a r 8 0 p e r s e n d a t a p a d a p u b i i k a s i i n d i k a t o r E k o n o m i d i p e r ­g u n a k a n p a d a p r o y e k i n i , d e n g a n s e r i e s d a r i m u l a i p e n y a j i a n s a m p a i d a t a t e r a k h i r . H a l i n i k a r e n a s e l a i n s i s t e m Data Base u h t u k k e b u t u h a n p r o y e k y a n g n a n t i n y a a k a n d i t e r b i t k a n s e c a r a r e g u l a r , j u g a d a r i d a t a base t e r s e b u t b i s a d i m a n f a a t k a n u n t u k p u b i i k a s i I n d i k a t o r E k o n o m i . A p a i a g i k a l a u s a r a n a k o m p u t e r N E C d i b e r i k a n t a m b a h a n M e s i n P l o t t e r , m a k a g r a f i k - g r a f i k p u b i i ­k a s i i n d i k a t o r e k o n o m i t i d a k p e r l u l a g i d i b u a t s e c a r a m a n u a l .

P e n g o l a h a n d a t a p a d a p r o y e k i n i d a r i d a t a p u b i i k a s i a t a u B u s i n e s s S u r v e y a k a n d i p r o s e s d e n g a n m e l a l u i a n a l y s i s d e k o m p o s i s i , u n t u k m e n g h i l a n g ­k a n p e n g a r u h t r a d i n g d a y , m u s i m a n , r a n d o m d a n t r e n d n y a . L a n g k a h s e l a n ­j u t n y a a d a l a h : Pertama: M e m i l i h v a r i a b e l y a n g m e m p u n y a i s i k l i s d a n m e ­n e n t u k a n P e a k s d a n T r o u g h s n y a . Kedua: M e m i l i h v a r i a b e l s e b a g a i l e a d i n g , c o i n c i d e n t d a n l a g g i n g s e r i e s . Ketiga: M e n g h i t u n g D i f f u s i o n - I n d i c e s (DI)

3 9 0 E K I . V o l X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5

d a l a m h a l i n i DI a k a n d i h i t u n g d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n d a t a p u b i i k a s i d a n d a t a B u s i n e s s S u r v e y .

P r o s e s i n i d i r e n c a n a k a n a k a n s e l e s a i t a h u n 1 9 8 8 . D i h a r a p k a n s e l a n j u t ­n y a s e c a r a r e g u l a r I n d o n e s i a - B P S a k a n m e l a n j u t k a n s e n d i r i p e n y a j i a n I n d i ­k a t o r A C . i n i .

E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4, 1985 391

L A M P I R A N 1.

Indikator Business Cycles Amerika Serikat dan Jepang, Keadaan Pertenirahan. 1983

U n i t e d State Japan

Leading

1.0 Average workweek, manufacturing 2.0 New unemployment claims^ 3.0 New orders, consumer goods 4.0 Formation of business enterprises 5.0 Contracs and orders, paint and

equipment b 6.0 Building permits, housing ^ 7.0 Change in business inventories 8.0 Industrial materials prices 9.0 Stock price index

10.0 ProFrts° 11.0 Ratio, price to labor es t 12.0 Change in consumer debt

Coincident

13.0 Nonfarm employment

14.0 Unemployment rate* 15.0 Gross national product 16,0 Industrial production 17.0 Personal income 18.0 Manufacturing and trade sales

1.1 Overtime worked, manufacturing rua. n.a.

4.1 Business failures* 5.0 New orders, machinery and

construction b 6.1 Dwelling units started 7.0 Change in inventories 8.0 Raw materials prices 9.0 Stock price index

10.0 Profits'' 11.0 Ratio, price to labor cost 12.1 Change in consumer and housing

debtb

13.0 Nonfarm employment, regular workers

14.0 Unemployment rate* 15.0 Gross national product 16.0 Industrial production 17.1 Wage in salary income 18.1 Retail sales'*

Lagging

19.0 Long-duration unemployment* 20.0 Plant and equipment investment 21.0 Business Investories 22.0 Productivity change, nonfum* 23.0 Business loans outstanding 24.0 Interest rates, business loans

20.0 Plant and equipment expenditure 2L0 Business investories 22.1 Productivity change, nonfarm* 23.1 Total loans outstanding 24.1 Interest rates, business loans

KETERANGAN : a. Treated invertedly in the composite indexs. b. In constant prices. c Change in net balance of survey responses. d. Not included in leading index for West Germany.

Note : Series numbers are based on the U.S. list. The digits after the decimal indicate wether the series is substabtially the same as the U.S. series (0), or only rougjily equivalent (I or 2).

SUMBER: Center for International Business Cycle Research, Rugers University.

3 9 2 E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5

L A M P I R A N 2.

Draft Work Schedule of S E P I A - Indonesia FTCiject Oct 2, 1 984 b y O S A D

^ - ^ O r g a n i z a t i o n

Year B P S I D E

1st project year ( F Y . 1984)

2nd year ( F Y . 1985)

1. Assistance to I D E in data collection

2. Study on Diffusion Index and other methodology

1. Business Survey {Large scale) — All Indonesia — About 300 samples — Once a year

2. Data collection, addition of new series, revision of prelimi­nary figures.

3. Se^up of Local Data Base — Data input including result

of business survey — Software Installation

4. Pilot Study

1. International survey on the short-term prediction and col materials.

2. Set-up the framework for Joint Project with BPS.

3. P i l o t study :

1) Data collection 2) Selection of candidate indicators (about 200 variables) 3) Data proccssir^ (adjustment of seasonality, irregularity 4) Study on the history of business cycles in Indonesia

peaks and throughs in the past 10 years) 5) l i t Identi&cation of : — Leading Indicators

— Coincident Indicators — Lagging Indicators

4. Supply of information to BPS

5. Report (Once at the end of fiscal year)

1. Supply of first year* results of pilot study to Indonesia (Including data in magnetic tape)

2. Support for Business Survey and Local Data Base

3. Revision of Indicators - More precise adjustment of seasonality, irregularity che - Revision of indicators - Calculation of Diffusion index

4. Forecast and report (twice a year)

5. Exchange of data in m ^ e t i c tape with BPS

ection of readii

i

check, detreni Identification

•ck, detrend.

8

). f

Dfltutip dari Osada

E K I . V

. R (1984).

o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5 3 9 3

L A M P I R A N 2. (Laiqutan)

B P S W E

5. Set-up of project committee — Working group — Consulting group (include

economist outside BPS)

6. Exchange of data in magnetic tape with I D E

(FI l tST Y E A R O F J O I N T P R O J E C T )

Srd year { F Y . 1986) 1. Business Survey (Smaller Scale)

— Greater Jakarta Area — About 150 samples — Twice a year

2. Maintenance of Local Data Base

3. Revision of Indicators (Some with item 3 of I D E in F Y . 1985)

4. Forecast

5. Exchange of data with I D E

Same with F Y . 1985 except that

1. Forecast and report will be published quarteriy.

4th year { F Y . 1987)

Improvement 3 rd year items

( F I N A L Y E A I

Improvement of 3rd year items

O F J O I N T P R O J E C T )

After 5th year C O O P E R A T I O N T H R O U G H D A T A B A S E N E T W O R K

Dikutip dari Osada. H. (1984).

m E K I . V o l . X X X I I I , N o . 4 , 1 9 8 5

D A F T A R P U S T A K A

1. Akaike. R and Ishiguro. M, 1980 "Baysea, a Bayesian Seasonal Adjustment Pro­gram" Computer Science Monographs, The Institute of Statistical Mathe­matics, Tokyo.

2. Akaike. H, 1980 "Seasonal Adjustment by a Bayesian Modeling", Journal of Time Series Analysis. Vol' 1, No. 1, 1980.

3. Akaike. H, 1979 "Timsac-78", Computer Science Monographs, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo.

4. Baba. M, Nomura. N, Tahara. S, 1983 "M^or Features of New Business Cycle Indicators in Japan", C I R E T 16 Tahun Conference September 21-24, 1983. Washington, D.C.

5. Box, G.E.P, and Jenkins, G.M, 1979 "Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Con­trol" Holden day, San Fransisco.

6. Doody, F.S, 1965 "Introduction to the use to Economic Indicators", Random House, N.Y.

7. Estey J .A, 1956 "Business Cycles, Their Nature, Cause, and Control" Englewood Cliffs, N.J. Prentice-Hall, Inc.

8. G.M. Jenkins and D.J . Watt, 1979 "Time Series Analysis and Its Applications",

Holden Day Inc, San Fransisco.

9. IDE 1984 "Shorturn Economic Frediction in Asia (SEPIA)", I D E , Tokyo.

10. Makridakis. S, Wheelwright. S.C, and Mc Gee. V . E , 1983, "Forecasting Methods and Applications", John Wiley and Sons, 2nd ed.

11. Moore G.H, 1983 EBusiness Cycle, Inflation and Forecasting" NBER, BaUiger Pu-blishitig Company.

12. Moore G.H, 1961 "Business Cycle Indicators Contributions to flie Analysis of

Current Business Conditions" Vol. 1, Princeton University Press.

13. Osada. H, 1984 "Out-line SEPIA Project", I D E Japan. . -

14. Sargent T .J , 1979, "Macro Economic Theory", Academic Press. N.Y., San Fran­sisco, London.

E K I . Vol. XXXIII . No. 4, 1985 395