TEMPORAL TRENDS IN KENYAN SMALLHOLDER SETTLEMENT SCHEME ALLOCATION (1962 – 2015) Nina Mauney, John Scrivani, Kimberley Browne Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Richmond, Richmond, VA INTRODUCTION OBJECTIVES • Determine temporal trends in settlement scheme properties such as: o Smallholder plot size o Allocated land characteristics DATA & METHODOLOGY Settlement Scheme Data: Approximately 1,500 individual paper maps were collected, catalogued, georeferenced, and used to digitize the boundaries of 350 smallholder settlement schemes. The polygons were then joined to allocation data (Lukalo and Odari, 2016). For this study, we examined the 143 known settlement schemes in the former Rift Valley province of Kenya. RESULTS DISCUSSION Allocated land characteristics: Aridity of allocated land tended to increase over time (Figures 1, 2, and 3). While earlier schemes were characterized by wet/moist bioclimate, there was an increase in allocation of semi-dry land in later schemes. Allocated land in 2009 was predominantly cropland (Figure 3). This reflects settlement and cultivation by smallholders. In later settlement schemes, we see increases in allocated grassland and forested land cover types. Smallholder plot size: The average individual’s allocated plot in a settlement scheme tended to decline in area over time in the former Rift Valley province (Figure 4). In addition to this region, this trend was also prevalent throughout government-allocated smallholdings across Kenya. REFERENCES 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Hot Semi-Dry Hot Moist Hot Wet Warm Semi-Dry Warm Moist Warm Wet 1978 - 1979 1990 - 1997 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Wet Cropland Wet Forest Wet Grassland Wet Swampy Moist Cropland Moist Forest Moist Grassland Moist Swampy Semi-Dry Cropland Semi-Dry Forest Semi-Dry Grassland Surface Water Artificial/Urban 1981 1986 2003 - 2004 2011 1986 2003 - 2004 2011 1990 - 1997 1981 1978 - 1979 Settlement schemes are government-allocated plots of land transferred from colonial Europeans to Kenyan smallholders. The creation of smallholder settlement schemes played a critical role in the postcolonial development of Kenya (Boone, 2011). Initially designed to reallocate land from colonial powers to landless and unemployed Kenyans post-independence (Boone, 2011; Leo, 1978), settlement schemes later became a highly contested issue as land has become scarce. This study focused on settlement schemes in the former Rift Valley province of Kenya, specifically in the counties of Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Kakamega, Kericho, Laikipia, Nakuru, Nandi, Trans Nzoia, and Uasin Gishu. In this region, the primary agricultural products are maize, wheat, barley, oats, sisal, and livestock such as dairy cattle, sheep, pigs, and poultry (Morgan, 1963). Boone, C. (2011). Politically Allocated Land Rights and the Geography of Electoral Violence: The Case of Kenya in the 1990s. Comparative Political Studies, 44(10), 1311–1342. Leo, C. (1978). The Failure of the “Progressive Farmer” in Kenya’s Million-Acre Settlement Scheme. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 16(4), 619–638. Lukalo, F. K. & Odari, S. (2016). Exploring the status of settlement schemes in Kenya, NLC working paper series. National Land Commission, Nairobi. Morgan, W. T. W. (1963). The “White Highlands” of Kenya. The Geographical Journal, 129(2), 140–155. Sayre, R., Dangermond, J., Frye, C., Vaughan, R., Aniello, P., Breyer, S. P., … Comer, P. (2014). A new map of global ecological land units—An ecophysiographic stratification approach. Retrieved from http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70187380 Analysis: The average plot size of each settlement scheme was determined by dividing the polygon area (GIS-derived) by the number of settler families (reported by Lukalo & Odari, 2016). Ecological Land Unit data were reclassified to separate bioclimate, landform, lithology, and land cover. Area in each class was tabulated and exported by settlement scheme. Ecological Land Unit Data: (250 meter resolution is adequate for scale of our study) Areas of “distinct bioclimate, landform, lithology, and land cover” (Sayre et al., 2014). • Bioclimate: interpolated from 50-year averaged precip. and temp. data • Landform: derived from DEM data • Lithology: describe rock properties, including unconsolidated sediments • Land Cover: vegetative response to physical environment, from GlobCover 2009 land cover dataset This research project is conducted in partnership between Dr. Fibian Lukalo of Kenya’s National Land Commission, Prof. Catherine Boone of the London School of Economics (funded by UK Economic and Social Research Council Grant # ES/R005753/1 'Spatial Dynamics in African Political Economy' under Kenya NACOSTI Research Permits # NACOSTI/P/16/48539/13282 and /24668), and Professors Kimberley Browne and Sandra Joireman at the University of Richmond. The data and maps have been prepared for the purposes of academic and policy research; boundaries are estimates and not intended for official use. Users outside the NLC should cite this work as F. Lukalo, C. Boone, K. Browne, and S. Joireman, "Kenya Settlement Schemes Data Project,” Nairobi, London and Richmond: NLC, LSE, and UR, 2019.” Lithology (Rows) 1. Unconsolidated Sediment 2. Carbonate Sedimentary 3. Mixed Sedimentary Rock 4. Non-Carbonate Sedimentary 5. Evaporite 6. Pyroclastics 7. Metamorphic Rock 8. Acidic Volcanics 9. Acidic Plutonics 10. Non-Acidic Volcanics 11. Non-Acidic Plutonics Land Cover (Columns) A. Bare Area B. Sparse Vegetation C. Grassland, Shrub, or Scrub D. Mostly Cropland E. Mostly Deciduous Forest F. Mostly Needleleaf/Evergreen Forest G. Swampy or Often Flooded Figure 1: Ecological Land Units (Sayre et al., 2014) in Kenyan Rift Valley settlement schemes of (a) Laikipia, (b) Nakuru, (c) Uasin Gishu, and (d) Trans Nzoia Counties. Figure 2: Rift Valley Settlement Scheme Bioclimates over time Figure 3: Rift Valley Settlement Scheme land cover and aridity over time. Figure 4: Rift Valley Settlement Scheme average plot size over time. Map Legend (Sayre et al., 2014)