Tema Energias Renováveis e Não Renováveis Painel: Suzana Kahn Ribeiro, PBMC e COPPE/UFRJ
Tema Energias Renováveis e Não Renováveis
Painel:
Suzana Kahn Ribeiro,
PBMC e COPPE/UFRJ
Desafios do Brasil para Redução das Emissões de Gases
de Efeito Estufa no Setor de Energia
Quarta Conferência Regional sobre Mudança Global
Suzana Kahn RibeiroProfessora COPPE/UFRJ
Presidente do Comite Cientifico do Painel Brasileiro de Mudança ClimáticaSubsecretaria de Economia Verde do Estado do Rio de Janeiro
Vice presidente do IPCC- Grupo de MitigaçãoSão Paulo, 6 de abril de 2011
–O objetivo global de limitar o aumento de temperatura no final do século abaixo de 20C acima dos níveis pre industriais implica em umatransição para um desenvolvimento de baixo carbono;
– A descarbonização da economia ( importante aspecto da economiaverde) requer uma reorientação dos investimentos e prioridades;
–A descarbonização pode acontecer tanto por meio de menor emissãode carbono por unidade de produto ( intensidade de carbono) comopela absorção do carbono da atmosfera ( “emissão negativa” ).
O Brasil tem oportunidades nas duas frentes:
1. Emissao Negativa ( BioCCS/ Reflorestamento)
2. Baixa intensidade de carbono ( eficiencia energética e manutenção da matriz energética limpa)
Energy linkage to Development
Source: Dr. Steve Chu, Department of Energy, US
Energy Intensity of GDP
Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy (data for a few countries from EU unavailable before 1993)
Carbon Intensity of the GDP
Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy (data for a few countries from EU unavailable before 1993)
China
SA
USA
EU
India
Brazil
Carbon Content of Energy Production
Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy (data for a few countries from EU unavailable before 1993)
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
19801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006
China
SA
USA
EU
India
Brazil
Intensidade Energética/Carbono do PIB
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Cumulative population in million
t C
O2_
eq
/cap
US
A &
Ca
na
da
: 1
9.4
%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Eu
rop
eA
nn
ex
I:
11
.4%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3% Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
Oth
er
non
-An
nex
I: 2
.0%
Africa: 7.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 1
0.3
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Cumulative population in million
t C
O2
eq
/cap
US
A &
Ca
na
da
: 1
9.4
%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Eu
rop
eA
nn
ex
I:
11
.4%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3% Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
Oth
er
non
-An
nex
I: 2
.0%
Africa: 7.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 1
0.3
%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Cumulative GDP_ppp (2000) in Billion US$
kg
CO
2_
eq
/US
$ G
DP
_p
pp
(2000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
Average Annex I: 16.1 t CO2eq/cap
Average non-Annex I: 4.2 t CO2eq/cap
Annex I Non- Annex I Share in
global GDP
GHG/GDP
kg CO2 eq/US$
Annex I 56.6% 0.683
non- Annex I 43.4% 1.055
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Cumulative population in million
t C
O2_
eq
/cap
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Cumulative population in million
t C
O2_
eq
/cap
US
A &
Ca
na
da
: 1
9.4
%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Eu
rop
eA
nn
ex
I:
11
.4%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3% Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
Oth
er
non
-An
nex
I: 2
.0%
Africa: 7.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 1
0.3
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Cumulative population in million
t C
O2
eq
/cap
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Cumulative population in million
t C
O2
eq
/cap
US
A &
Ca
na
da
: 1
9.4
%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Eu
rop
eA
nn
ex
I:
11
.4%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3% Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
Oth
er
non
-An
nex
I: 2
.0%
Africa: 7.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 1
0.3
%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Cumulative GDP_ppp (2000) in Billion US$
kg
CO
2_
eq
/US
$ G
DP
_p
pp
(2000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Cumulative GDP_ppp (2000) in Billion US$
kg
CO
2_
eq
/US
$ G
DP
_p
pp
(2000)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Cumulative GDP_ppp (2000) in Billion US$
kg
CO
2_
eq
/US
$ G
DP
_p
pp
(2000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
Average Annex I: 16.1 t CO2eq/cap
Average non-Annex I: 4.2 t CO2eq/cap
Annex I Non- Annex I Share in
global GDP
GHG/GDP
kg CO2 eq/US$
Annex I 56.6% 0.683
non- Annex I 43.4% 1.055
5
10
Figure SPM.3a: D istribution of regional per capita GHG)
emissions (all Kyoto gases) over the population of different
country groupings in 200 4 (adapted from Bolin and Khesgi,
2001) using IEA and EDGAR 3.2 database information. 100
year GWPs from IPCC 1996 (SAR) were used to convert
emissions to CO2-eq. (cf. UNFCCC reporting guidelines).
Figure SPM.3b: D istribution of regional GHG emissions
(all Kyoto gases) per US$ of GDP ppp over the GDP of
different country groupings in 2004 using IEA and
EDGAR 3.2 d atabase information. 100 year GWPs from
IPCC 1996 (SAR) w ere used to convert emissions to CO 2-
eq. (cf. UNFCCC reporting guidelines).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Cumulative population in million
t C
O2_
eq
/cap
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Cumulative population in million
t C
O2_
eq
/cap
US
A &
Ca
na
da
: 1
9.4
%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Eu
rop
eA
nn
ex
I:
11
.4%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3% Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
Oth
er
non
-An
nex
I: 2
.0%
Africa: 7.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 1
0.3
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Cumulative population in million
t C
O2
eq
/cap
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Cumulative population in million
t C
O2
eq
/cap
US
A &
Ca
na
da
: 1
9.4
%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Eu
rop
eA
nn
ex
I:
11
.4%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3% Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
Oth
er
non
-An
nex
I: 2
.0%
Africa: 7.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 1
0.3
%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Cumulative GDP_ppp (2000) in Billion US$
kg
CO
2_
eq
/US
$ G
DP
_p
pp
(2000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Cumulative GDP_ppp (2000) in Billion US$
kg
CO
2_
eq
/US
$ G
DP
_p
pp
(2000)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Cumulative GDP_ppp (2000) in Billion US$
kg
CO
2_
eq
/US
$ G
DP
_p
pp
(2000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
Average Annex I: 16.1 t CO2eq/cap
Average non-Annex I: 4.2 t CO2eq/cap
Annex I Non- Annex I Share in
global GDP
GHG/GDP
kg CO2 eq/US$
Annex I 56.6% 0.683
non- Annex I 43.4% 1.055
Share in
global GDP
GHG/GDP
kg CO2 eq/US$
Annex I 56.6% 0.683
non- Annex I 43.4% 1.055
Share in
global GDP
GHG/GDP
kg CO2 eq/US$
Annex I 56.6% 0.683
non- Annex I 43.4% 1.055
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Cumulative population in million
t C
O2_
eq
/cap
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Cumulative population in million
t C
O2_
eq
/cap
US
A &
Ca
na
da
: 1
9.4
%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Eu
rop
eA
nn
ex
I:
11
.4%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3% Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
Oth
er
non
-An
nex
I: 2
.0%
Africa: 7.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 1
0.3
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Cumulative population in million
t C
O2
eq
/cap
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Cumulative population in million
t C
O2
eq
/cap
US
A &
Ca
na
da
: 1
9.4
%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Eu
rop
eA
nn
ex
I:
11
.4%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3% Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
Oth
er
non
-An
nex
I: 2
.0%
Africa: 7.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 1
0.3
%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Cumulative GDP_ppp (2000) in Billion US$
kg
CO
2_
eq
/US
$ G
DP
_p
pp
(2000)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Cumulative GDP_ppp (2000) in Billion US$
kg
CO
2_
eq
/US
$ G
DP
_p
pp
(2000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Cumulative GDP_ppp (2000) in Billion US$
kg
CO
2_
eq
/US
$ G
DP
_p
pp
(2000)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Cumulative GDP_ppp (2000) in Billion US$
kg
CO
2_
eq
/US
$ G
DP
_p
pp
(2000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
Average Annex I: 16.1 t CO2eq/cap
Average non-Annex I: 4.2 t CO2eq/cap
Annex I Non- Annex I Share in
global GDP
GHG/GDP
kg CO2 eq/US$
Annex I 56.6% 0.683
non- Annex I 43.4% 1.055
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
Average Annex I: 16.1 t CO2eq/cap
Average non-Annex I: 4.2 t CO2eq/cap
Annex I Non- Annex I Share in
global GDP
GHG/GDP
kg CO2 eq/US$
Annex I 56.6% 0.683
non- Annex I 43.4% 1.055
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
CumulativeGDPppp (2000) in billion US$
kg
CO
2eq
/US
$ G
DP
pp
p(2
000)
Other non-Annex I: 2.0%
Afr
ica
: 7
.8%
La
tin
Am
eri
ca
: 10
.3%
Mid
dle
Ea
st:
3.8
%
EIT
An
nex
I: 9
.7%
Non-Annex I East Asia:
17.3%USA & Canada: 19.4%
Non-Annex I South Asia:
13.1%
JA
NZ
:5.2
%
Europe Annex I:
11.4%
Average Annex I: 16.1 t CO2eq/cap
Average non-Annex I: 4.2 t CO2eq/cap
Annex I Non- Annex I Share in
global GDP
GHG/GDP
kg CO2 eq/US$
Annex I 56.6% 0.683
non- Annex I 43.4% 1.055
Share in
global GDP
GHG/GDP
kg CO2 eq/US$
Annex I 56.6% 0.683
non- Annex I 43.4% 1.055
Share in
global GDP
GHG/GDP
kg CO2 eq/US$
Annex I 56.6% 0.683
non- Annex I 43.4% 1.055
5
10
Figure SPM.3a: D istribution of regional per capita GHG)
emissions (all Kyoto gases) over the population of different
country groupings in 200 4 (adapted from Bolin and Khesgi,
2001) using IEA and EDGAR 3.2 database information. 100
year GWPs from IPCC 1996 (SAR) were used to convert
emissions to CO2-eq. (cf. UNFCCC reporting guidelines).
Figure SPM.3b: D istribution of regional GHG emissions
(all Kyoto gases) per US$ of GDP ppp over the GDP of
different country groupings in 2004 using IEA and
EDGAR 3.2 d atabase information. 100 year GWPs from
IPCC 1996 (SAR) w ere used to convert emissions to CO 2-
eq. (cf. UNFCCC reporting guidelines).
Note: In 2004 developed countries (UNFCCC Annex I countries) held a 20%
share in world population and yet accounted for 46 % of annual GHG
emissions. (figure SPM.3a). Their economies have a lower average GHG
intensity (0.68 kg CO2eq/US$ GDPppp) than those of non-Annex-I countries
(1.06 kg CO2eq/US$ GDPppp).
-25
25
75
125
175
225
275
325
US3.8%
EU 27+ 10%
China9.7%India
8% Brazil6.6%
South Africa0.1%
Carbon Intensity of Electricity – Modern Renewables
Capability – Per capita income in $PPP (2008)
Re
sp
on
sib
ility
–kg
CO
2 p
er
ca
pita
(1
99
0-2
00
6)
Source: Income Data – IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/weodata/index.aspx ; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union), Emissions Data – WRI CAIT, Renewable Data - US: EIA, India : MNRE; CEA; EU
27: EuroElectric, China, Brazil, SA: IEA and Various Sources,
Renewable Energy as a share of Power Capacity (%)
in the context of Climate Responsibility (Emissions),
and Mitigation Capability (Income)
-25
25
75
125
175
225
275
325US10.8%
EU 32.1%
China23.88%India
29.1% Brazil83.1%
South Africa1.6%
Carbon Intensity of Electricity – Renewable including hydro
Capability – Per capita income in $PPP (2008)
Re
sp
on
sib
ility
–kg
CO
2 p
er
ca
pita
(1
99
0-2
00
6)
Source: Income Data – IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/weodata/index.aspx ; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union), Emissions Data – WRI CAIT, Renewable Data - US: EIA, India : MNRE; CEA; EU
27: EuroElectric, China, Brazil, SA: IEA and Various Sources,
Renewable Energy (incl. Large Hydro) as a share of Power Capacity (%)
in the context of Climate Responsibility (Emissions),
and Mitigation Capability (Income)
Os 7 Objetivos
• Desenvolvimento de baixo carbono
• Energia Renovável
• Biocombustíveis
• Desmatamento
• Cobertura Florestal
• Vulnerabilidade e Adaptação
• Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento
PRESIDÊNCIA DA REPÚBLICA
CASA CIVIL
Comitê Interministerial sobre Mudança do Clima
Ações de Mitigação 2020 Tendencial
Amplitude da redução 2020(mi tCO2eq)
Proporção de Redução
Uso da terra 1084 669 669 24,7% 24,7%
Desmatamento na Amazônia (redução de 80%) 564 564 20,9% 20,9%
Desmatamento no Cerrado (redução de 40%) 104 104 3,9% 3,9%
Agropecuária 627 133 166 4,9% 6,1%
Recuperação de Pastos 83 104 3,1% 3,8%
ILP - Integração Lavoura Pecuária 18 22 0,7% 0,8%
Plantio Direto 16 20 0,6% 0,7%
Fixação Biológica de Nitrogênio 16 20 0,6% 0,7%
Energia 901 166 207 6,1% 7,7%
Eficiência Energética 12 15 0,4% 0,6%
Incremento do uso de biocombustíveis 48 60 1,8% 2,2%
Expansão da oferta de energia por hidroelétricas 79 99 2,9% 3,7%
Fontes Alternativas (PCH, bioeletricidade, eólica) 26 33 1,0% 1,2%
Outros 92 8 10 0,3% 0,4%
Siderurgia – substituir carvão de desmate por plantado 8 10 0,3% 0,4%
TOTAL 2703 975 1052 36,1% 38,9%
Desafio: Manter a elevada participação de energia renovável namatriz energética brasileira
Como?
• Estimular o desenvolvimento de outras fontes ( solar,eólica e biomassa )
• Estimular a eficiencia de processos & eficiencia energética
• Estimular economia verde
–Bio CCS ( pegar figura do Ch2 –SREEN )
Ações em curso no Rio de Janeiro
• Decreto de compensaçao energética
• Exigencia de energia solar para aquecimento em obras públicas
• Exigencia de geração de energia do lixo (10%)
• Asfalto borracha
• Recuperação hídrica para retomada da produçao de cana de acucar
• PROVE
• Definição de teto de emissões para criação de mercado, estimulando a busca pormaior eficiência e competitividade
A chance de crescer da mesma forma que os mais ricos
não existe mais. A transição para a economia de baixo
carbono é inevitável. Não será uma opção. O Rio e o
Brasil não podem ficar defasados do modelo de
desenvolvimento do futuro.