TEMA 2 Los factores de crecimiento. Natalidad y mortalidad. Crecimiento natural. Movimientos migratorios. Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
TEMA 2 Los factores de crecimiento. Natalidad y mortalidad.
Crecimiento natural. Movimientos migratorios.
Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
MAPA DE MORTALIDAD
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
MAPA DE NATALIDAD
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
MAPA DE FERTILIDAD
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Map Key
Color Fertility rate Long-term impact
Red less than 2 declining population
Yellow about 2 stable population
Green 3 to 4 growing population
Blue 4 or more rapidly growing population
Gray data not available
TRENDS IN INFANT MORTALITY, BY REGION
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Annual number of deaths to infants under age 1 per 1,000 live births
93
133
99
81
21
52
89
48
22
7
World Africa Asia Latin America and the
Caribbean
More Developed Regions
1970-1975 2005-2010
Source: UN, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
NOTES ON TRENDS IN INFANT MORTALITY, BY REGION
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
• In the last three decades, the worldwide rate of death to children under age 1 has dropped by nearly one-half: from 93 deaths per 1,000 live births in the early 1970s to 52 deaths at the beginning of the new century.
• The rate of infant mortality varies widely by region. For example, in Africa, the infant mortality rate is 12 times higher than the rate for more developed regions (89 compared with 7).
INFANT MORTALITY, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Rate by Age of Mother at Time of Birth Deaths by age 1 per 1,000 live births over a 10-year period
74 88 92
114 123
163
53 62
76 87
100
116
Eritrea 2002
Madagascar 2003/04
Cameroon 2004
Burkina Faso 2003
Nigeria 2003
Mozambique 2003
Mother less than 20 years old Mother 20 to 29 years old Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.
INFANT MORTALITY, NORTH AFRICA AND WEST ASIA
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Rate by Age of Mother at Time of Birth Deaths by age 1 per 1,000 live births over a 10-year period
Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.
27
68 74
87
25
44 46
70
Jordan 2002 Morocco 2003/2004 Egypt 2000 Turkmenistan 2000
Mother less than 20 years old Mother 20 to 29 years old
INFANT MORTALITY, SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Rate by Age of Mother at Time of Birth Deaths by age 1 per 1,000 live births over a 10-year period
Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.
39 42
53
101 108
20 27
39
88
68
Vietnam 2002
Philippines 2003
Indonesia 2002/2003
Cambodia 2000
Nepal 2001
Mother less than 20 years old Mother 20 to 29 years old
INFANT MORTALITY, LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Rate by Age of Mother at Time of Birth Deaths by age 1 per 1,000 live births over a 10-year period
Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.
41 42 52
79
131
31 29 40
65
83
Dominican Republic 2002
Nicaragua 2001
Peru 2000
Bolivia 2003
Haiti 2000
Mother less than 20 years old Mother 20 to 29 years old
NEONATAL MORTALITY, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Rate by Age of Mother at Time of Birth Deaths by age 1 per 1,000 live births over a 10-year period
Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.
54 49
40
50
58 62
35 30 31
37
48 42
Ghana 2003
Madagascar 2003/04
Cameroon 2004
Burkina Faso 2003
Nigeria 2003
Mozambique 2003
Mother less than 20 years old Mother 20 to 29 years old
NEONATAL MORTALITY, SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Rate by Age of Mother at Time of Birth Deaths by age 1 per 1,000 live births over a 10-year period
Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.
27 28 32
45
71
15 16 19
36 40
Vietnam 2002
Philippines 2003
Indonesia 2002/2003
Cambodia 2000
Nepal 2001
Mother less than 20 years old Mother 20 to 29 years old
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
TRENDS IN POPULATION GROWTH WORLDWIDE
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
80 87
83 79
76 76 75 72
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020
Net population added per year Annual population growth rate
Mill
ion
s
Perc
ent
incr
ease
per
yea
r
NOTES ON TRENDS IN POPULATION GROWTH WORLDWIDE
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
• This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year.
• Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year).
• From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’ generations.
WORLD POPULATION CLOCK
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
2005
Natural
Increase per
World
More
Developed
Countries
Less
Developed
Countries
Less
Developed
Countries
(less China)
Year 80,794,218 1,234,907 79,559,311 71,906,587
Day 221,354 3,383 217,971 197,004
Minute 154 2 151 137
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGE, BY COUNTRY
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Percent Population Change, 2005-2050
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
THREE CENTRAL MESSAGES OF THE REPORT OF THE SECRETARY-
GENERAL
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
•International migration is a key component
of the globalization process
•International migration is a positive force for
development, both in countries of origin and
in countries of Destination
•It is possible and advisable to strengthen
international cooperation on international
migration
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IS A KEY
COMPONENT OF THE GLOBALIZATION
PROCESS
PERCENTAGE OF PLAYERS FROM NATIONAL TEAMS WHO NORMALLY
PLAY IN OTHER COUNTRIES (“KICKER DRAIN”)
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
PERCENTAGE OF PLAYERS FROM NATIONAL TEAMS WHO ARE
FOREIGN-BORN (“IMPORT OF NEEDED SKILLS”)
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
WE ARE IN A NEW MIGRATION ERA
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
•Since the late 1980s: migration has been rising rapidly…
•…but there is a freer flow of goods and capital than of persons
•Barriers to the movement of lowskilled workers persist
THE NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS IS
ALMOST EQUALLY DIVIDED INTO THREE TYPES
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
(Cumulated migrant stock -- Millions of persons)
MIGRATION TO INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES IS MORE
STEADY THAN THAT TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
(Rate of growth of the migrant stock)
2%
2,90% 3%
0,20%
2,60%
0,50%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
1960-1975 1975-1990 1990-2005
More developed regions without the former USSR
Less developed regions
MIGRANTS CONSTITUTE HIGH PROPORTIONS
OF THE POPULATION IN FEW COUNTRIES
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
(MIGRANTS AS PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION, 2005)
MIGRATION POLICIES
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
• Migration policies have become somewhat less restrictive
• There is great diversity of policy stances Some countries allow permanent migration selected on the basis of skills or family ties
Many allow temporary admission often under work permits
• There is growing preference for temporary migration schemes
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION POLICIES HAVE
BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS RESTRICTIVE
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
(Percentage of countries)
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IS A
POSITIVE FORCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, BOTH IN
COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN AND IN
COUNTRIES OF DESTINATION
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
FOR COUNTRIES OF DESTINATION
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
•There are some adverse but small effects on low-skilled workers
•Most migrants complement local workers and therefore contribute to economic growth
•Growing educational levels and population ageing increase the positive effects of migration
•Migration has additional positive effects on economic growth: entrepreneurship, diverse supply of services, etc.
•Main drawbacks: achieving the mutual adaptation of migrants and host societies is not easy…
•… and irregular migration is not desirable
WITHOUT MIGRATION, THE LABOUR FORCE WOULD
DECLINE DRASTICALLY IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Projected population aged 15-64 with and without migration (medium variant)
IN SOME COUNTRIES, THIS EFFECT WOULD
BE CATASTROPHIC: GERMANY
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Projected population aged 15-64 with and without migration (medium variant)
FOR COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
•International migrants are usually not among the poorest persons in communities o origin
•The development of migrant networks lower the risks of migration and may enable poorer persons to migrate
•Remittances increase family welfare but their macroeconomic effects are less clear-cut
•Many benefits stem from a close relation between communities of origin and migrant communities abroad
•eturn migration and circulation permit countries of origin to reap greater benefits from migration
•Main costs: “brain drain”, which may not be necessarily compensated by higher incentives to acquire training in order to migrate
REMITTANCES RECEIVED BY DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
MIGRANTS WITH TERTIARY EDUCATION AS
PERCENTAGE OF THE INCREASE IN ALL
MIGRANTS AGED 25 OR OVER, 1990-2000
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
IT IS POSSIBLE AND ADVISABLE TO STRENGTHEN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
MODES OF INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
REGARDING MIGRATION
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
•The outcome documents of United Nations conferences and summits
•United Nations Conventions, with varying degree of coverage
•International organizations / Global Migration Group
•Global initiatives
•Regional processes
•Bilateral agreements
STATUS OF RATIFICATION OF INTERNATIONAL
INSTRUMENTS RELATIVE TO INTERNATIONAL
MIGRATION
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
COMMON INTERESTS ON MIGRATION AND AN AGENDA
FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
•Ensure the protection of the rights of all migrants and prevent their abuse or exploitation •Co-development as the framework to realize the potential of migration as a force for development: Leveraging the use of remittances
Strengthen ties with migrant communities
•Global concerted approach to the formation of human capital
COMMON INTERESTS ON MIGRATION AND AN AGENDA
FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
•Mutual adaptation of migrants and host societies
•To combat racism and xenophobia in all their forms
•To channel migration through regular streams on the basis of realistic policies to shape those flows
•Combat crimes of trafficking and smuggling
•To improve the information and evidence base.
A CONSULTATIVE MIGRATION
FORUM IN THE UNITED NATIONS
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
•To consider all dimensions of the migration process
•To promote coherence in terms of migration and development policies
•It would have a consultative character, with voluntary participation of Member States and room for innovation
•It would respect the right of sovereign States to shape their own migration policies
NÚMERO DE NACIMIENTOS
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
25 países con mayor número de nacimientos por 1.000 habitantes (2005 – 2010)
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/JS-Charts/fert-births_0.htm
FERTILIDAD
Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/fertility_figures/interactive-maps_TF.htm
Note: These maps display estimates of total fertility for all countries of the world as well as probabilistic projections of total fertility, which have been carried out using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). These estimates and projections have been prepared for the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York