TELECOMMUNICTIONS - IBEFThe focus of this presentation is to discuss the… Telecom industry - overview ... Cellular Mobile Services • The Indian telecom industry can be primarily

TELECOMMUNICTIONS September 2009

2

The focus of this presentation is to discuss the…

Telecom industry - overview

Telecom – attracting investments

Regulatory framework

Key trends in the telecom industry

Growth avenues in the telecom industry


3

Indian telecom industry – a snapshot

• India has one of the biggest telecom markets in the world. It has more GSM subscribers than fixed-lin subscribers.

• Total telecom subscribers – 494.07 million (August 2009)1

• Teledensity – 42.27 per cent (August 2009)1

• Addition of mobile subscribers (July–August 2009) – 15.08 million1

• Annual growth rate of telecom subscribers (June 2008–June 2009) – 42.68 per cent

• Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for GSM (as on 30 June 2009) – US$ 3.801

• Telecom equipment market (2008–09) – US$ 24.99 billion2,3

• Handset market (2008-09) – US$ 5.82 billion2,3

• Expected mobile subscriber base (2013) – About 771 million.4

Sources: 1) Exchange rate as on 30 June 2009 (1 US$ = INR 48.64380) , TRAI and TRAI; 2) Average exchange rate for the year 2008–09 and TRAI;

3) Cybermedia; 4) Stockwatch

Telecommunications September 2009

TELECOM INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

4

• The Indian telecom industry generated revenues of approximately US$ 32 billion in 2007–081 with a growth rate of 60 per cent over 2006–07.

• It witnessed a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29 per cent from 2002–03 to 2007–08.

• The CAGR is expected to stabilise at 16 per cent between 2007–08 and 2009–10.

Sources: 1) Average exchange rate for the year 2007–08; 2)

TRAI Report

Telephony services (mobile and basic) and internet services

dominate the Indian telecom services market.



5

Telephony services (mobile and basic) and internet services

dominate the Indian telecom services market.

Telecom Services In India

Internet

PMRTS

VSATs

Radio Paging

GMPCS

Basic Services

Cellular Mobile Services

• The Indian telecom industry can be primarily divided into basic, cellular mobile and internet services. It also has smaller segments such as radio paging services, Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSATs), Public Mobile Radio Trunked Services (PMRTS) and Global Mobile Personal Communications by Satellite (GMPCS).

• The mobile services in India are growing more than basic wireline services.



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The wireless segment in India is much larger than the

wireline segment and is growing steadily owing to

convenience and utility.

Basic Services

• Basic services encompass fixed wireline and wireless in local loop (WLL-fixed) services.

• Wireless services hold a major market share of 92 per cent in basic services as compared to the wireline.

Market Share of Basic Services Segments in India (2008–09)

Source: TRAI



7

Government-owned players account for the highest growth

in subscriber base in the basic telephony services segment.

• Government-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) and MahanagarTelephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL) are the two largest operators in the wire line segment, whereas Bharti AirtelLtd is the leader in wireless segment.

• MTNL is present in Delhi and Mumbai, whereas BSNL covers the rest of the country.

• Though private players such as Bharti Airteland Reliance have registered notable growth, BSNL still dominates the segment in terms of wireline subscriber base despite the nominal decrease in its market share.

Market Share of Wireline Service Operators in India (2008-09)

Source: TRAI report



8

Reduction in tariffs have led to a constant reduction in the

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). The gradual decline in ARPU

remains well supported by the increase in subscriber base.

• The ARPU for GSM service in India is much higher than that for CDMA service. The ARPU per month for GSM services has declined from US$ 6.64 for the quarter ending (QE) March 2008 to US$ 4.10 for the QE March 2009, while that for CDMA services has fallen from US$ 3.99 to US$ 1.98 during the same period.1,2

Sources:1) TRAI Report; 2)Exchange rate as applicable on an average

basis for respective quarters

Average Revenue Per User in India

AR

PU

(U

S$ p

er m

on

th)



9

Reduction in tariffs have led to a constant reduction in the

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). The gradual decline in ARPU

remains well supported by the increase in subscriber base.

• The Minutes of Usage (MoU) for GSM have been significantly higher than those for CDMA. The MoUs for CDMA service have declined from 364 in March 2008 to 357 in March 2009, whereas those for GSM have decreased from 493 to 484 during the same period.

Minutes of Usage (MoU) Per Subscriber

Per Month in India

Sources:1) TRAI Report; 2)Exchange rate as applicable on an average

basis for respective quarters

Mo

U (

per

su

bsc

rib

erp

er m

on

th)



10

The telecom subscriber base in India is likely to reach 500

million by 2010.

• The subscriber base grew to 494.07 million (August 2009), registering a growth of approximately 42.67 per cent over last year. It grew at a CAGR of 45.21 per cent from June 2004 to June 2009.

• Teledensity in India is still low as compared to that in some countries. As on August 2009, India had a teledensity of 42.27 per cent as compared to the previous year’s figure of 29.83 per cent.

Source: TRAI Report

(in millions)

Source: TRAI Report



Telecom Subscriber Base in India

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Private players have maximum subscribers in the wireless

services segment

• Wireless services have led to significant growth in the Indian telecom industry.

• Currently, there are 11 players—Bharti Airtel, Reliance, Vodafone, BSNL, Tata Tele Services Ltd, Idea, Aircel, MTNL,BPL, HFCL and Shyam—active in this segment.

• As compared with 2007–08, the subscriber base of most wireless service providers has increased leading to an increase in their revenues.

Market Share Of Wireless Service Operators In India

(As of June 2009)

Source: TRAI Report



12

Private players have maximum subscribers in the wireless

services segment

• The subscriber base of Bharti Airtel, a leader in this market, increased from 69.38 million in 2007–08 to 102.37 million in 2008–09, followed by Reliance (79.62 million subscribers) and Vodafone (76.45 million subscribers).

GSM preferred to CDMA segment by a large margin in terms of subscriber numbers.

Indian Mobile Services Market Share (As of June 2009)

Source: TRAI Report



13

GSM preferred to CDMA in number of additions to

subscriber base

• Bharti has the largest market share in the GSM segment. During 2008–09, out of the total subscriber base of 328.83 million, private players accounted for approximately 84 per cent, while the public sector operators (BSNL and MTNL) accounted for the remaining share (16 per cent).

• Reliance Communications dominates the Indian CDMA mobile services segment with a subscriber base of 54.19 million.

Market Share Of GSM Service Providers (As of June 2009) Market Share Of CDMA Service Providers (As of June 2009)

Source: TRAI Report



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Radio Paging Services

Radio paging services were launched in India in 1995. This service, however, could not compete well with cellular services in general and SMS technology in particular and is shrinking continuously. At present, all but four radio paging service providers have been marginalized in the Indian market.

Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSATs)

At present, there are 8 VSAT service providers in India including BSNL, Bharti Airtel, Hughes Communication and HCL Comnet Ltd. The number of subscribers of VSAT services increased on a quarterly basis by 6,108 to 108,328 in June 2009. The market for VSAT services registered a 5.98 per cent growth for the quarter ending June 2009. Hughes Communication is the market leader, with a market share of 29.4 per cent, followed by Bharti Airtel with 25.9 per cent.

Source: TRAI Report

Various other services emerged by leveraging the telecom

services industry...(1/2)



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Various other services emerged by leveraging the telecom

services industry...(2/2)

Public Mobile Radio Trunked Services (PMRTS)

PMRTS services have been showing a negative growth. PMRTS’ subscriber base decreased by 2.06 per cent during the quarter ending June 2009.1 High license fee for this service leaves low margin for services providers, thereby inhibiting its growth. In India, 12 operators are offering this service to a total of more than 30,951 subscribers.

Global Mobile Personal Communication by Satellite (GMPCS)

GMPCS2 services were launched in India in 1999. These services allow a subscriber to communicate with others from any point on earth through a hand-held terminal. Moreover, the telephone number remains unchanged, irrespective of the subscriber’s location. Iridium India Telecom Limited is the pioneer in GMPCS services in India. The Government of India has restricted foreign equity participation in this segment to 74 per cent.

Sources: 1) TRAI Report; 2) DOT



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• The total number of internet subscribers increased at a CAGR of approximately 21.09 per cent from 2000–01 to 2008–09.

* The Internet subscribers for the above graph does not include

wireless data subscribers and those with broadband connections

• The total revenue from internet services increased 4.32 per cent from US$ 400.6 million in March 2009 to US$ 417.9 million in June 2009.

• Broadband contributed 250.20 million to the total revenue from the internet services, where as share of leased line was 93.04 million in quarter ending June 2009.

Source: TRAI Report

Internet Services: June 2009

Internet Subscribers: 2000-2009*

Inte

rnet

Su

bsc

rib

ers(

in m

illio

n)

Despite a slow penetration rate, the internet services segment

embodies huge growth potential in India.



17

Despite a slow penetration rate, the Internet services segment

embodies huge growth potential in India.

• The total number of internet subscribers grew from 11.66 million in June 2008 to 14.05 million in June 2009. This is primarily attributed to an increase in broadband subscriber base from 4.38 million in June 2008 to 6.62 million at the end of June 2009.

• BSNL is the biggest player in this market with 7.6 million subscribers, followed by MTNL, Bharti Airtel, Reliance and Sify Technologies.

• Internet services can also be accessed through mobile phones (CDMA and GSM). Bharti Airtel is the leader among the wireless internet operators with a market share of approximately 24 per cent in June 2008.

Top Five Internet Service Providers by Market Share

(As of June 2009)

Source: TRAI Report



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The sales for GSM-based handsets have been growing in India as

compared to CDMA-based handsets.

Mobile Handsets Market in India• The handset market in India, consisting of mobile and fixed handsets, registered an overall growth of 5.8 percent from 2007-08 to 2008-09.

• The expansion of wireless networks and an increase in subscriber base, both in urban and rural areas, led to a boost in the sale of mobile handsets across India. The mobile handsets sale grew by 7.9 per cent, while that of fixed handsets declined by 36.6 per cent over 2008–09.

• Out of the total number of handsets sold in 2007–08, 68.3 million were based on the GSM technology and the remaining (27.3 million) on CDMA. GSM handset sales grew by 34 per cent as compared to 28 per cent for CDMA phones.

Source: Voice & Data

Values (in US$ million)



19

Nokia, Samsung and Sony Ericsson mobile phones are most

popular in the country.

• Nokia continues to dominate the handsets market. Its market share increased from 62.5 per cent in 2007–08 to 64 per cent in 2008–09. Samsung has the second-highest market share (10 per cent) in 2008–09.

• LG, Motorola and Sony Ericsson witnessed a decline in their market share in 2008–09 as compared to 2007–08.

Market share of Mobile Handset Manufacturers 2008–2009

(GSM and CDMA)

Source: Voice & Data



20








21

India – an ideal destination for investments

• World’s largest democracy

• Independent judiciary

• Third-largest telecom network in the world, second-largest among the emerging economies after China

• On an average, approximately 8 million users are added per month, making India the world’s fastest growing telecom market.

• Liberal Foreign Investment Regime: FDI limit increased from 49 per cent to 74 per cent; the rural telecom equipment market also open to large investments

• Among countries offering the highest rates of return on investment

• The large untapped potential in India’s rural markets revealed by 9.21 per cent teledensity in rural markets as compared to the national level of 28 per cent in 2008.

• The government is promoting telecom manufacturing by providing tax sops and establishing telecom-specific Special Economic Zones

• Fully repatriable dividend income and capital invested in telecom equipment manufacturing

Source: TRAI

TELECOM - ATTRACTING INVESTMENTS


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The regulatory framework provides a level-playing field for all

operators.

DoTLicensor and Frequency

Management for TelecomTRAI

Independent Regulator

WPC(Wireless Planning

Commission)Spectrum Management

TDSATDisputes Settlement

Body

Indian Telecom Industry

Framework

ILD PlayersVSNLBharti

Reliance

Private CDMA Reliance

TTSLHFCL

Systema

GSM OperatorsVodafone

BhartiIdeaSpiceBSNL

RelianceAircelBPL

Telecom CommissionExclusive Policy Making

Function of DoT

GoT–IT(Group on Telecom and

IT)Handles ad–hoc issues

• The Department of Telecommunications (DoT) governs the Indian telecom industry. DoT, in coordination with its arm, Telecom Commission, looks after licensing, policy making, frequency management, administrative monitoring, research and development, equipment standardisation and validation along with private investments.

• Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) was established in 1997 by DoT to streamline policy reforms and safeguard consumer interests.

• The Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT) was also established in the same year.

Source: TRAI

Integrated Fixed LineBSNLMTNLTata

CommunicationsBharti

reliance

REGULATORY FRAMEWORK


24


operators.

Unified Access Licensing Regime (UALR)

• The establishment of the UALR (2003) eliminated the need for separate licences for different services. This regime allowed players to offer both mobile and fixed-line services under a single licence after paying an additional entry fee. The regime does not take into account the national and international long-distance services and Internet access services.

• Between February and March 2008, DoT granted 120 new licences to provide Unified Access Services to various companies, including Datacom Solutions Pvt Ltd, Aska Projects Ltd, Swan Telecom Pvt Ltd, Loop Telecom Pvt Ltd and S Tel Ltd.

Universal Service Obligations (USO)

• The USO policy was implemented along with National Telephone Policy (NTP) 1999 to widen the reach of telephony services in rural India. All telecom operators are bound to contribute 5 per cent of their revenues to this fund. This system was put in place to bridge the wide gap between urban and rural teledensity, bringing it down from the current 31 per cent. Initially, only basic service providers were under the purview of USO. Later, its scope was expanded to include mobile services also. Although it increases the cost burden for telecom companies, USO helps in building the telecommunication infrastructure in rural areas.

Source: TRAI



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operators.

Impact of Policy Change on Indian Telecom Industry

Sources: 1) TRAI; 2) Fitch Report

NTP 99

Telecom Tariff Order

WLL

UASL, CPP

Lowering of ADC Removal of ADC

Cel

lula

r ta

rrif

(IN

R p

er m

inu

te)

Nu

mb

er o

f su

bsc

rib

ers

(mill

ion

s)



26

Various important regulations and laws have been passed

in the Indian telecom industry post-liberalisation era

Department of Telecommunication (DoT) is the main body formulating laws

and various regulations for the Indian telecom industry.

Private players were allowed in Value Added Services

Go-ahead to the CDMA technology

National Telecom Policy (NTP) was formulated

1992

1994

1997

Independent regulator, TRAI, was established

NTP-99 led to migration from high-cost fixed license fee to low-cost revenue sharing regime

1999

2000 2002

BSNL was established by DoT

ILD services was opened to competition

Internet telephony initiated

Reduction of licence fees

2003

Calling Party Pays (CPP) was implemented

Unified Access Licensing (UASL) regime was introduced

Reference Interconnect order was issued

2004

Intra-circle merger guidelines were established

Broadband policy 2004 was formulated—targeting 20 million subscribers by 2010

2005

FDI limit was increased from 49 to 74 percent

Attempted to boost Rural telephony

2006

Number portability was proposed (pending)

Decision on 3G services (awaited)

2007

2008

3G policy

unveiled

ADC removed and Indian Telegraph

Rules introduced

InformationTechnology

Act introduced

Communication ConvergenceBill introduced

2001

Mobile Number Portability Regulations introduced

ILD – International Long Distance

Sources: 1) TRAI; 2) Fitch Report 3) India Law Journal

2009



27








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MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS (M&A)

Source: Thomson One Banker

• The market is witnessing several M&A activities that are resulting in consolidations in the industry. This trend has assisted companies in expanding their reach in the Indian telecom market to offer better services to customers.

Recent Mergers and Acquisitions in the Indian Telecom Industry

Deal Date Target Company Acquirer Company Deal Value (US$mn)

September 15, 2009 XL Telecom & Energy Ltd Morgan Stanley Mauritius Co 3.68

August 19, 2009 Wireless TT Info Services Ltd Quippo Telecom infrastructure 1,320.63

July 23, 2009 Words Infocomm Pvt Ltd Lighthouse Funds LLC -

July 20, 2009 Shree Shree Telecom Pvt Ltd Goldstone Infratech Ltd -

July 14, 2009 Spice Mobiles Ltd Spice Televentures Ltd 7.05

July 12, 2009 S Tel Ltd Investor Group 225

July 08, 2009 HFCL Infotel Ltd Investor Group 17.78

June 06, 2009 Spanco Ltd Investor Group 3.93

May 27, 2009 Allianz Infratech (P) Ltd Swan Telecom Pvt Ltd -

KEY TRENDS IN TELECOM INDUSTRY


29

FDI in the Indian Telecom Sector

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry

* Estimate

FDI in telecommunications sector

KEY TRENDS IN TELECOM INDUSTRY


(US$ millions)

The Indian government allows FDI of up to 74 per cent, subject to licensing and security requirements, in the following categories:

• Basic and cellular services

• National/international long distance services

• Value-added services such as PMRTS and GMPCS

• Radio paging service

• Internet services (providing service gateway)

• Infrastructure providers (Category-II)

The Indian government allows FDI of up to 100 per cent in the following categories:

• Manufacturing of telecom equipment

• Internet services (not providing international gateways)

• Infrastructure providers providing dark fibre, right of way, duct space, tower (IP Category-I)

• Electronic mail

• Voice mail

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31

India presents a host of opportunities for telecom

companies…(1/9)

3G Services

• The Indian government plans to auction the spectrum for 3G services by inviting bids from domestic as well as foreign players. The 3G spectrum is among the major investment opportunities and is expected to attract investments worth US$ 8–10 billion during 2008–11.

• International and foreign players can enter this segment through joint-ventures with Indian companies with a stake of not more than 74 per cent. They will also have to pay an additional entry fee of US$ 344 million to acquire Unified Services Access Licence (USAL).4 Companies such as AT&T and NTT DoCoMo are planning to enter this sector.

Growth

Avenues

3G

WiMax

Infrastructure

Sharing

Managed

Services

Virtual

Private

Network

Value–

Added

Services

Rural

Telephony

Enterprise Telecom services

Sources: 1) TRAI Report; 2) International Business Times; 3) Indiapwire 4) Business Standard 5) e-Eighteen.com Ltd

GROWTH AVENUES


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companies…(2/9)

• The Telecom Ministry would auction four licences for 3G services including one reserved licence for US$ 4.09 billion.5

• BSNL launched 3G services under the proposed 'India-Golden 50' scheme that allows customers to make long-distance calls for 50 paise (About US 1 cent) per minute. The subscribers also get additional features such as video telephony, Internet access, video on demand, mobile TV and others facilities.3

Sources: 1) TRAI Report; 2) International Business Times; 3) Indiapwire 4)

Business Standard 5) e-Eighteen.com Ltd.

GROWTH AVENUES

3G Services


33


companies…(3/9)

Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMax)

WiMax has been one of the most significant developments in wireless communication in the recentpast. Since this mode of communication provides network access in inaccessible terrains at a speedof more than 4 Mbps, it is expected to be a major factor in driving telecom services in India,especially the wireless services. Thus, it will lead to the increased use of telecom services, internet,value added services and enterprise services.

ICOMM Tele and Beceem Communications jointly announced the commercial availability of WiMAXmodems for the Indian market.

The Telecom Ministry is also planning to auction three WiMax slots for US$ 1.07 billion with anapproximate auction cost of US$ 358 million each.

Source: TRAI; Indiapwire; Indiapwire; e-Eighteen.com Ltd

GROWTH AVENUES


34


companies…(4/9)

Managed Service

Managed service is another segment that is attracting telecom companies. On account of the rapidlygrowing subscriber base, service providers find it difficult to manage their infrastructure andnetwork. In such cases, they completely or partially outsource their infrastructure or networkmanagement operations.

Bharti Airtel and Nortel entered into an enhanced managed-services agreement in November 2008that allows Nortel to continue providing contact centre technology (CCT) solutions.

In turn, Bharti Airtel is able to leverage Nortel’s solution to provide its customers with interactivevoice and video response capabilities.

Source: TRAI; Indiapwire; Indiapwire; e-Eighteen.com Ltd

GROWTH AVENUES


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Infrastructure Sharing

In order to curtail their network deployment costs, many service providers are considering infrastructure sharing. It is a major step towards India’s ambitious target of 500 million subscribers by 2010.

Infrastructure sharing promises several advantages. Some of which are:

• Significant reduction in initial set up costs

• Increased environmental aesthetics

• Lower operating costs for service providers

• Improved service quality

• Increased affordability for customers

• Faster roll out of services in rural and remote areas

New Guidelines for Infrastructure Sharing in Mobile Telephony

• TRAI has recommended all mobile service providers in India to share infrastructure so as to meet the requirements of the flourishing telecom industry.

• Its proposal to Department of Telecommunications (DoT) states that the mobile telephony service providers should have better cooperation among them and have least regulatory interventions.

• The service providers can share active infrastructure if they have entered into a mutual agreement.

• The sharing of infrastructure includes sharing of antenna, feeder cable, nodes, radio access network

and transmission system only.

Source: TRAI


companies…(5/9)

GROWTH AVENUES


36

Virtual Private Network

Virtual Private Network is a private data network that provides connectivity within closed user groups(CUG) via public telecommunication infrastructure. It is similar to leasing/owning lines and yet gettingexclusive access.

Enterprise Telecom Services

Telecom service providers are increasingly targeting enterprises by providing them dedicated services. Some of the key services include VoIP, dedicated telecom communication systems; IT infrastructure-enabled unified communication services, etc. This segment is expected to witness major developments as the demand for enhanced telecom infrastructure is increasing along with the growth in the information and communication technology (ICT) industry.

Source: TRAI


companies…(6/9)

GROWTH AVENUES


37

Value-Added Services

The VAS industry in India generated revenue of US$ 1.2 billion in 2007–08 and is expected to reach US$ 4.0 billion by 2015.1,2

Major growth drivers for VAS in India

• Increasing focus on localisation and availability of content in local languages

• Development of M-commerce applications, such as booking tickets and making bill payments

• Availability of mobile TV and development of shows, films, images, news, etc.,

• Availability of complete subscriber data has helped in reaching niche audience leading to a growth in advertising revenue through M-marketing

• Development of video-based applications, such as video SMS and podcasts

Sources: 1)India PRwire; 2) Exchange rate as on 20 November 2008;

3) Indiapwire


companies…(7/9)

Value-Added Services in India (2007–08)

GROWTH AVENUES


38

Current Initiatives

•Mumbai-based Mobile Value Added Service company called Planet41 Mobi-Venture Ltd is planning an initial public offer in the coming months.

•The telecom companies can leverage VAS services to increase ARPU through content rather than voice services.


companies…(8/9)

GROWTH AVENUES

Sources: 1)India PRwire; 2) Exchange rate as on 20 November 2008;

3) Indiapwire


39

Rural Telephony

Under the Bharat Nirman Programme, the government will invest US$ 2 billion, from 2008 to 2009, to set up about 100,000 community service centres in rural areas to provide broadband connectivity.

With the teledensity in rural areas at less than 10 per cent against the national teledensity of approximately 28 per cent in 2008, there seems to be huge untapped potential for mobile phone penetration in rural India.

In March 2009, TRAI released recommendations for accelerating growth of telephony in the rural areas.

The suggested measures focus on the Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF) to empower effective investments in less-lucrative rural areas.

Sources: 1) TRAI Report ; 2) ZDNet Asia Report; 3) TRAI


companies…(9/9)

Urban – Rural disparity in India

Tele

densi

ty p

erc

enta

ge

GROWTH AVENUES


40


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TELECOMMUNICTIONS - IBEFThe focus of this presentation is to discuss the… Telecom industry - overview ... Cellular Mobile Services • The Indian telecom industry can be primarily

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