These slides discuss how improvements in the data rates of wireline and wireless systems have and continue to occur. For wireline systems, these improvements are driven by the use of better glass fiber, lasers, amplifiers, and wavelength division multiplexing and there appears to be few limits to these improvements. For wireless systems, these improvements are primarily driven by the use of better ICs. As long as these improvements in ICs continue to occur, improvements in data rates along with improvements in the use of the frequency spectrum continue to be possible. Improvements in both wireless and wireline systems will also make new forms of Internet content possible. Furthermore, these improvements in ICs along with the improvements in MEMS that are discussed in a related set of slides are gradually making cognitive radio economically feasible. All of these improvements are creating various kinds of entrepreneurial opportunities. These slides are based on a forthcoming book entitled “Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries and they are the sixth session in a course entitled “Analyzing Hi-Tech Opportunities.”
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1. A/Prof Jeffrey Funk Division of Engineering and Technology
Management National University of Singapore How is Technological
Change Creating New Rapid Improvements in Telecommunication Systems
and the Emergence of Opportunities 10th Session of MT5009 For
information on other technologies, see
http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
2. Recent Problem that could have been Solved Faster with
Better Telecom http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/20/us-
malaysia-airlines-blackbox- idUKBREA2J02H20140320
3. Another System that is Emerging from Improvements in Telecom
Smart home: http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2014/03/0
4/t-bachelor-pad-controlled-by-
smartphone.cnnmoney/index.html?iid=V_Series Or what about Facebooks
acquisition of Oculus VR, An integration of Oculus VR with FB
requires better telecommunication systems
4. Objectives What has and is driving improvements in cost and
performance of telecommunication systems? Can we use such
information to identify new types of telecommunication systems?
analyze potential for improvements in these new systems? compare
new and old systems now and in future? better understand when new
systems might become technically and economically feasible? analyze
the opportunities in higher level systems that created by these new
systems? New applications for Internet, cloud computing, e.g., more
Big Data or uploading of medical and scientific data understand
technology change in general
5. Session Technology 1 Objectives and overview of course 2 Two
types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that better exploit
physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling 4 Semiconductors, ICs,
electronic systems 5 MEMS and Bio-electronic ICs 6 Nanotechnology
and DNA sequencing 7 Superconductivity and solar cells 8 Lighting
and Displays (also roll-to roll printing) 9 Human-computer
interfaces 10 Telecommunications and Internet 11 3D printing and
energy storage This is Part of the Ninth Session of MT5009
6. As Noted in Previous Session, Two main mechanisms for
improvements Creating materials (and their associated processes)
that better exploit physical phenomenon Geometrical scaling
Increases in scale Reductions in scale Some technologies directly
experience improvements while others indirectly experience them
through improvements in components
7. Both Relevant to Telecommunications, but primarily
indirectly Creating materials (and their associated processes) that
better exploit physical phenomenon Better materials for fiber
(e.g., higher purity glass) lead to better fiber optic cable
Geometrical scaling in photonics and other components Some
technologies directly experience improvements while others
indirectly experience them through improvements in components
Better laser diodes, photosensors, amplifiers, other ICs, MEMS, and
displays lead to better telecommunication systems
8. Outline Wireline Data rates Fiber optics (and ICs) Photonics
Wireless Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G (2000s), and 4G
(soon) Non-Voice Wireless Cognitive Radio Visible Light
Communication
9. Data Rates have Risen for Telecommunication Systems Optical
Fiber Synchronous Optical Network
10. Speeds/Bandwidth for Wireline Telecommunication Source: Koh
H and Magee C, 2006, A function approach for studying technological
progress: application to Information technology, Technological
Forecasting & Social Change 73: 1061-1983.
11. But.the last mile is the bottleneck Last mile from main
trunk lines to homes determines data rates for that home Installing
optical fiber can require expensive digging particularly in rural
areas Much cheaper to install optical fiber in urban areas,
particularly in dense urban areas new buildings in urban area This
is why densely populated Asian countries have much higher usage of
fiber to the home
13. Different kinds of Systems ADSL (Asymmetric digital
subscriber line) for copper lines utilizes broader range of
frequencies than do voice calls (over copper line) Asymmetric means
that downloading speeds are faster than uploading speeds VDSL (very
high speed DSL) for copper lines similar to but faster than ADSL
EPON/GPON: Ethernet passive optical networks, gigabit passive
optical networks WDM-PON: Wavelength division multiplexing DOCSIS:
Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification
14. Increased Speeds/Bandwidth Leads to Shorter Downloading,
Uploading Times Fiber to the Home Cable TV Digital Subscriber Lines
(DSL)
15. Other Downloading and Uploading Requirements
16. Outline Wireline Data rates Fiber optics Photonics Wireless
Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G (2000s), and 4G (soon)
Non-Voice Wireless: Data Rates and Methods Cognitive Radio Visible
Light Communication
17. Big Reason for Improved Data Rates is that Optical Fiber
has More Capacity A single fiber can carry more communications than
the copper cable in the background where light stays within glass
fiber Bundling many of these glass fibers together can provide very
high bandwidth for many users
18. Why do Optical Fibers Have More Capacity? More photons can
be packed in a small space than can electrons because photons have
less interaction with each other than do electrons Photons mostly
interact with glass fiber Electrons interfere with each other
partly because they have waves and because they emit photons, which
are absorbed by other electrons Source: communication with Aaron
Danner, Associate Professor, NUS
19. Another advantage of fiber: While the speeds for fiber are
independent of distance, the speeds for VDSL and ADSL depend on
distance
20. A Fiber Optic-Based System Electronic System (e.g., ICs)
Electronic System (e.g., ICs) Speeds and bandwidth depend on purity
(and thus optical loss) and type (e.g., graded index) of glass,
performance of lasers/ LEDs, photodiodes, IC-based amplifiers, and
other ICs
21. 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
OpticalLoss(db/km) Figure 2.9 Reductions in Optical Loss of Optical
Fiber NAS/NRC, 1989. Materials Science and Engineering for the
1990s. National Academy Press Reductions in Optical Loss by
Increasing Purity of Glass
22. Source: Fiber-Optic Communication Systems, Govind P.
Agrawal, Institute of Optics, University of Rochester Other
Improvements: five generations of fiber
23. First Two Generations Plus Previous One Single-index fiber
Graded-index fiber: Refractive index refers to speed of light in
material. Less modal dispersion (different parts of pulse travel at
different speeds) due to higher refractive index at center Single
mode fiber: Narrow cables only support single mode and 1.3 micron
wavelength has less dispersion
24. Most Recent Three Generations Single mode lasers, 1.55
micron laser Lasers with a very narrow line width of wavelengths
where 1.55 micron wavelength had fewer losses. WDM, Optical
amplifiers Wave length division (WDM) multiplex enables multiple
messages to be sent down one fiber, each with a different carrier
frequency Erbium doped fiber amplifier replaces electronic
amplification Raman amplification
25. Wavelength-Division Multiplexing (WDM)
26. Many Improvements in Lasers Helped In addition to the
improvements cited above, other improvements also helped One way to
measure performance of laser diodes is in terms of threshold
current, i.e., minimum current needed for lasing to occur this
enables lower power consumption lower currents come from lower
threshold current densities
27. Source: Materials Today 14(9) September 2011, Pages 388397
Reductions in Threshold Current, i.e., Minimum Current Needed for
Lasing to Occur, enable lower power consumption
28. Faster ICs, Moores Law has also Helped Faster ICs are
needed to handle the data that is sent into a fiber or received
from a fiber (shown earlier for Ethernet Cable) Sometimes called
Moores Law, smaller feature sizes enable increases in the number of
transistors per chip, which leads to faster processing power
Without these faster ICs, the faster speeds of fiber optics would
be meaningless
29. Are there Limits? Can we keep increasing the speeds of
fiber optic cable? Can we keep increasing the number of wavelengths
that are used in a single fiber optic line? Can we keep increasing
the performance of laser diodes? There appears to be no physical
limits to expanding the number of wavelengths of light that are
used in a fiber optic system A new approach called orbital angular
momentum may offer additional improvements (Science 340, 28 June
2013, p. 1513) It also appears that we are a long way from
reaching
30. Current Bottlenecks to Faster Data Rates In
telecommunication systems, it is ICs and conversion between
electrons and photons In computers, it is board level interconnect
Light travels faster than do electrons But what if we could replace
the silicon-based processors with optical devices? combine
processors and optical devices on a single silicon chip? replace
board-level interconnect with optics?
31. Outline Wireline Data rates Fiber optics Photonics Wireless
Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G (2000s), and 4G (soon)
Non-Voice Wireless: Data Rates and Methods Cognitive Radio Visible
Light Communication
32. Can we make all optical devices on a Silicon Chip?
33. Evolution of Si-Photonics is in Parallel with Improvements
in Si-Based ICs: For the most part, both benefit from reductions in
scale
34. Do Photonics Benefit from Reductions in Scale? Photonics
are a form of MEMS Some types of MEMS benefit from reductions in
scale Greater resolution with ink Jet Printer Greater detection
with micro-gas analyzers Greater frequency for resonators in mobile
phone filters Greater resolution for digital micro mirrors For
photonics, Performance may improve as feature sizes become smaller
At least until feature sizes reach wavelength of light (380- 750
nm) Thus cost of processing data with ICs is much lower than
processing data with optical components
35. Laser types shown above the wavelength bar emit light with
a specific wavelength while ones below the bar can emit in a
wavelength range. Another Problem: Only some lasers are made with
semiconductor materials and most of them are made with non-silicon
based semiconductor materials (III-V materials)
36. One exception:
37. Since the Holy Grail of Photonics (put everything on one
chip) seems Far in the Future, More Emphasis on Other Goals Improve
Conversion Between Optical and Electrical or OEO
(optical-to-electrical-to- optical) conversion Large bottleneck
Very expensive Use optical instead of electrical interconnect Start
with board level interconnect
38.
http://www.infinera.com/pdfs/whitepapers/Photonic_Integrated_Circuits.pdf
Cost of Conversion (Accessing) vs. Cost of Manipulating the Data
Figure 4. The cost of optical components required to implement an
OEO conversion are significant compared to the cost of electronic
ICs used to manipulation the data in the electronic domain.
39. Photonics attempts to reduce the cost of converting optical
to electronic signals and visa versa (OEO)
http://www.infinera.com/pdfs/whitepapers/Photonic_Integrated_Circuits.pdf
40.
http://www.infinera.com/pdfs/whitepapers/Photonic_Integrated_Circuits.pdf
Infinera Integrates Many Discrete Components on one Chip
42. Infinera also Reports Rapid Improvement with Indium
Phosphide Source: Infinera
43. Other Materials are Also Possible Indium Phosphide Build
all components including lasers and transistors on Indium Phosphide
substrate Leader is Infinera Hybrids Use silicon for transistors
and some photonic components such as filters, (de)multiplexers,
splitters, modulators and photo-detectors Using III/V materials for
electro- refractive modulators, electro-absorption modulators,
laser diodes, and optical amplifiers III/V materials are added to
silicon chip using wafer bonding
44.
http://www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/print/volume-49/issue-07/features/photonic-frontiers-silicon-photonics-silicon-photonics-
evolve-to-meet-real-world-requirements.html Progress is being made.
But a long way to go..
45. An all Silicon Conversion Chip? All components except the
laser are on this chip from IBM Red feature at left side of cube is
a germanium detector fabricated on silicon Blue feature at right
with beam entering it is the modulator. Yellow areas are conductors
The small red dots at lower right are silicon transistors Published
on 15 July 2013
www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/print/volume-49/issue-07/features/photonic-frontiers-silicon-photonics-silicon-photonics-evolve-to-meet-real-world-requirements.html
46. Since the Holy Grail of Photonics (put everything on one
chip) is Far in the Future, More Emphasis on Other Goals Improve
Conversion Between Optical and Electrical Large bottleneck Very
expensive Use optical instead of electrical interconnect Start with
board level interconnect Gradually move towards on-chip
interconnect where photonics represents another layer on a
47. NANOPHOTONICS: ACCESSIBILITY AND APPLICABILITY, National
Academies Press Direction of trend
48. Fast Optical to Electrical Conversion: Intels Light Peak
HDD: hard disk drive SSD: solid state drive
50. Optical Routing Layer is Another Layer on a 3D Chip
http://www.slashgear.com/ibm-silicon-nanophotonics-speeds-servers-with-25gbps-light-10260108/
IBM silicon nanophotonics speeds servers with 25Gbps light, Chris
Davies, Dec 10th 2012
51. Lots of opportunities for firms to offer optical solutions
But also faster computers and telecommunication systems will
continue to emerge What does this mean for processing, Big Data and
uploading more data to the cloud E.g., medical and other
applications DNA sequencers Astronomy Particle accelerators
52. Outline Wireline Data rates Fiber optics Photonics Wireless
Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G (2000s), and 4G (soon)
Non-Voice Wireless: Data Rates and Methods Cognitive Radio Visible
Light Communication
53. Source:
http://www.sdrinsider.com/2010/01/spectral-efficiency/ For
Wireless, Spectral Efficiency is Important (limited resource), both
for Voice and Data
54. Source: The Progress in Wireless Data Transport and its
Role in the Evolving Internet, Mario Amaya and Chris Magee
(bitspersecond/Hz)
55. Better Efficiency Comes from New Wireless Systems and
Better Components Private mobile systems (from 1920s) Cellular
phone systems enabled frequency spectrum to be reused in each cell,
cell sizes can also be reduced Analog (1980s) Digital, i.e., 2nd
Generation (1990s) 3rd Generation (2000s) 4th Generation (2010s)
2nd, 3rd, and 4th generation systems provide further increases in
efficiency of frequency spectrum they use better algorithms and
require better ICs Better ICs also enable smaller cells
56. Private Mobile: Cellular Phone Systems Single Transmitter
Multiple Transmitters Frequency Spectrum: Inefficient utilization
Efficient utilization Wavelength: Long Short Cost per Capacity:
High Low
57. New Generations of Mobile Phone Systems Provide further
increases in efficiency of frequency spectrum 2G Digital Mostly GSM
(global system mobile) Based on TDMA (Time division multiple
access) 3G (UMTS): Mostly W-CDMA (wide band code division
multiplex) 4G: Mobile WiMax and Long Term Evolution (LTE) Newer
generations use more sophisticated algorithms and they require
better ICs Standards determined in standard setting activities
58. New Generations of Mobile Phone Systems Require More
Sophisticated Algorithms and thus Better ICs RelativePerformance
100,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 10,000 100 1 1980 1990 2000 2010
2020 IC Performance Mobile phone system demands 2G 3G 1G Source:
Subramanian, R. 1999. Shannon vs. Moore: Digital Signal Processing
in the Broadband Age, in Proceedings of the 1999 IEEE
Communications Theory Workshop
59. Its not just performance, ICs also determine costs of
phones ICs: 124.46 Other materials: 48.00 Total bill of materials:
172.46 Manufacturing costs 6.50 Grand total $178.96 Source:
//gigaom.com/apple/iphone-3gs-hardware-cost-breakdown/
61. Source: Gonzalez, Embedded Multicore Processing for Mobile
Communication Systems
http://www.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/integriertesysteme/
emuco/files/hipeac_trends_future.pdf GPRS: general packet radio
service EDGE: enhanced data generation environment UMTS: universal
mobile telecommunications systems HSPA: high speed packet access
LTE: long term evolution Another Way to Look at How Improved ICs
Enable New Systems
62. Looking from the other Direction: How New Systems Require
Better ICs and Batteries
63. Source: Tarascon, J. 2009. Batteries for Transportation Now
and In the Future, presented at Energy 2050, Stockholm, Sweden,
October 19-20.
64. Technology Gaps Algorithmic Complexity Gap Demands for
faster processing speeds outpace improvements in Moores Law One
solution is multi-core processors Power Reduction Gap Reduce
voltages in order to reduce power consumption, but this also
reduces processing speeds Need better balance between performance
and power consumption of phones Memory access time Gap Requires
smarter memory organization in phones
65. New Demands on Mobile Phones Another reason for these gaps
is that music, video, etc. requires additional processing Thus,
better ICs are also needed to handle internal processing of data
(not just accessing data from network) And enable all kinds of new
applications! Better MEMS, bio-electronics are also important
Mobile phones are becoming the platform for our lives
66. But Phones Keep Getting Better Source: Source International
Solid State Circuits Conference 2013.
http://isscc.org/doc/2013/2013_Trends.pdf
67. Outline Wireline Data rates Fiber optics Photonics Wireless
Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G (2000s), and 4G (soon)
Non-Voice Wireless: Data Rates and Methods Cognitive Radio Visible
Light Communication
68. Source: The Progress in Wireless Data Transport and its
Role in the Evolving Internet, Mario Amaya and Chris Magee
(kilobitspersecond)
69. Source: The Progress in Wireless Data Transport and its
Role in the Evolving Internet, Mario Amaya and Chris Magee
70. Source: International Solid State Circuits Conference 2013.
http://isscc.org/doc/2013/2013_Trends.pdf
71. Source: International Solid State Circuits Conference 2013.
http://isscc.org/doc/2013/2013_Trends.pdf
72. Data Rates Per Second for Various Distances of Wireless
Transmission (Note the Source) Source: Source International Solid
State Circuits Conference 2013.
http://isscc.org/doc/2013/2013_Trends.pdf
73. This source and the International Solid State Circuits
Conference attribute the improvements in speeds to improvements in
ICs Again, Its All About Better ICs
75. Similar Things are Happening Everywhere
http://www.statistik.pts.se/PTSnordic/NordicCountries2012/Diagram2012_7.htm
76.
http://sites.duke.edu/marx/category/telecom/spectrum-telecom/
Running out of Spectrum..
77. We are also Interested in Short Range Wireless Technologies
Source: AStar, Kausik Mandal NFC: Near Field Communication Range
Data Rate Previous slides focused on this range
78. 82 Range (m) Data Networking 802.11a/b/g/n 11n promises
100Mbps @ 100m Quality of service, streaming Room-range
High-definition UWB Bluetooth UWB Short Distance Fast download
110Mbps @ 10m 480Mbps @ 3m 110Mbps @ 10m DataRate(Mbps) 1000 100 10
1 1 10 100 Another Way to Look at Short Range Wireless Technologies
Sources: MicrosoftCorporation,Texas Instruments : Ultra Wide
Band
79. Why do we Care about Short Distances? Exchange music,
video, and other files with friends and with other devices and do
this without wires and cables But also for data exchanges between
devices such as light switches, electric meters how about between
devices in airplane or car? How can we do this fast and without
using a lot of frequency spectrum? One new approach is ultra-wide
band We can also use short range wireless to connect phones with
wireline fiber optic systems
80. Near Field Communication Also has Many Applications Source:
AStar, Kausik Mandal
81. 85Source: IntelCorporation What is UWB: Any wireless
transmission scheme that occupies a fractional Bandwidth, BW/fc
> 20% or absolute BW > 500MHz.
82. Are There Limits to Data Speeds? What are limits for
increasing efficiency of frequency spectrum? Improvements are
limited by Shannons Law: C=B*log(1+S/N) C = information capacity
(bits per second) B = bandwidth; S = signal power; N = noise In
theory, gamma rays, which oscillate at 1024 Hz, can be used to
transmit data However, to modulate at this frequency, you have to
sample the waveform at twice that rate and the ICs or MEMS to do
this might not be available for many years Could a one nanometer
mechanical resonator provide 1015 bits per second?
83. Outline Wireline Data rates Fiber optics Photonics Wireless
Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G (2000s), and 4G (soon)
Non-Voice Wireless: Data Rates and Methods Cognitive Radio Visible
Light Communication
84. What is Cognitive Radio? Ability to access many different
frequencies with a single device As opposed to allocating a
specific frequency to mobile phones, cordless phones, broadcast
television This enables a larger range of frequencies to be shared
among devices Many allocated frequencies are unused because the
systems have not been implemented
85. Like Other Mobile Phone Systems The key bottleneck is ICs:
Need ICs that can quickly and cheaply change frequencies Current
prototype requires 2.75 billion transistors At 4 x 10-8 USD per
transistor, price is about 110 USD Current base-band processors are
priced at about 25 USD When will the price reach 25 USD? Also need
antennas/filters that can access many different frequencies could
MEMS or nano-technology provide these antennas? Source: Spring 2010
MT5009 final group presentation
86. Average transistor price falls to point at which IC costs
25 USD
87. Using an ASIC would further reduce the price/cost of the
IC
88. New Antenna/Filter is also needed An antenna that can
handle a variety of frequency bands is needed In session 4, such a
MEMS-based filter was discussed Small resonators handle specific
frequency bands Because they are so small, it is possible to place
many such resonators on a single IC chip And such a nano-based
resonator was discussed One molecule device In the short run, more
traditional antennas can be used
89. Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley
lectures
90. Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley
lectures; RF BPF: radio frequency bypass filte
91. Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley
lectures
92. Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley
lectures
93. Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley
lectures
94. Outline Wireline Data rates Fiber optics Photonics Wireless
Voice: analog (1980s), digital (1990s), 3G (2000s), and 4G (soon)
Non-Voice Wireless: Data Rates and Methods Cognitive Radio Visible
Light Communication
95. Faster frequencies mean potentially faster speeds
96. Made possible by improvements in lasers, LEDs, and
photo-sensors Also ICs, for interpreting reflections so that direct
line of sight is not necessary
97. Conclusions (1) Improvements in telecommunication system
performance have and are still occurring both in Wireline Wireless
These improvements have involved For wireline, finding better
materials for fiber optic cable and utilizing improvements in
lasers, amplifiers, and ICs For wireless, utilizing new system
designs such as cellular, smaller cells, or CDMA, which have been
helped by improvements in ICs These changes have created many types
of
98. Conclusions (2) Demand for faster data speeds and higher
bandwidth applications provide motivation for improvements There
may be no limits to improvements in fiber optic systems But the
bottleneck for Internet may become interface between computer and
fiber optical cable may require an all optical system, including
silicon lasers new designs and advances in science may also be
needed in order to produce silicon-based lasers use of optical
interconnect within computers is more likely
99. Conclusions (3) For wireless, there may also be no limits
to improvements As long as improvements in ICs continue to be made,
improvements in systems can occur Improvements in ICs and antennas
may also enable cognitive radio Cognitive radio can enable further
improvements in the effective use of the frequency spectrum But If
Moores Law slows, however.
100. What does this tell us about the Future? Improvements in
Telecommunication Systems will lead to more uploading and
downloading of data What applications will succeed? Cloud computing
will continue to diffuse, as will Big Data analysis But which
applications within cloud computing? What kinds of systems will be
developed? More medical and scientific applications DNA sequencing
Other medical applications from wearable computing Scientific
applications such as particle accelerators, astronomy