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Trends in Telecommunications
r. an anu asDale Montrone
Prosit Mukherjee
TranSwitch Corporation Proprietary & Confidential
Presented in VLSI 2008
Conference in Hyderabad, India
January 8, 2008
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Presentation Thesis
The world will be increasingly Wire-less
Especially in access space
Home Gateway / Femtocell will be pervasive WiFi interface to the client / Handset
-
WiMAX and LTE will rival X-DSL / Cable modem in cost /
performance
Intelligence will migrate to Handset / Home Gateway
Expert Systems and AI Concepts Will Be Incorporated In Handsets
ow power es gn process w om na e e
semiconductor industry
These trends will have impact throughout the
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semiconductor industry food chain
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We are Migrating to a World Without Wire!
nWiMAXVoice
Caching
eSta
ti
WiFi Based
Home Gatewa
DateX-DSL
ss/Bas
Network
LTE
Acce
Legacy Wire Line
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Intelligence Will Migrate More to the Handset
Starting in 1992 with
Basic Handsets
Intelligence is Moving to the
Handset (2007)
Address Book
Calculator
Alarm ClockCamera
Bluetooth
Wireless LAN
Windows
GPS
Mobile TV
MP3 Gaming
MPEG4 Software Apps
1- NEC Cellstar 500 (1992)
2- Nokia2110 (1994)
3- Nokia 5120 (1998)
4- Kyocera 2135 (2002)
5- Audiovox CDM8300 (2002)
6- Samsun SCH-A650 2004
1- Blackberry Curve2- Samsung Blackjack
3- Apple IPhone
4- Palm Treo
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Effect of Intelligence migration!
nWiMAX
Voice
Caching
Stati
WiFi Based
Home Gatewa
DataX-DSL
s/
Bas
Network
LTE
Acce
Legacy Wire Line
High Speed Interface Low Speed Interface
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- AI / Expert Systems Will Be Used
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Standardized Core and Access Network Elements
CoreATCA and MicroTCA
PurposeAccess Box/
Network
to develop off-the-shelf
HW/SW solutions
WindowsNTase a ons
Femtocell Specialized/Custom
Linux
Specialized Handset
ar ware an o ware
Windows MobilePalm OS
Blackberry OS
Short Product Life-cycle will be the Norm
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Semiconductor Technology in the Wire-less Food Chain
Cost Tech Equipment Supplier IC Supplier
Alcatel TranSwitchTranSwitch
Core 10%
ASSP
FPGAuProc
Cisco
EricsonFujitsu
Hewlett Packard
Huawei
Agere
AlteraAMCC
Fujitsu
Infineon
Access 30%ASSP
FPGA
uProc
IBM
NEC
Nortel
Sun
Intel
Mindspeed
PMC
Xilinx
Home
Gateway
FPGA
ASIC AppleLG
Motorola
Analog Devices
ARM
Freescale
Infineon
Qualcomm
Handset
IC
Programmable
Platforms
NokiaRIM/Palm
Samsung
RFMDNXP/Philips
Skyworks
ST Micro
Texas Instruments
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Semiconductor Technology in the Wire-less Food Chain
Cost Tech Equipment Supplier IC Supplier
Alcatel TranSwitchTranSwitch
Core 10%
ASSP
FPGAuProc
Cisco
EricsonFujitsu
Hewlett Packard
Huawei
Agere
AlteraAMCC
Fujitsu
InfineonSHRINKING
Intelligence/
Caching
Access 30%ASSP
FPGA
uProc
IBM
NEC
Nortel
Sun
Intel
Mindspeed
PMC
Xilinx
Home
Gateway
FPGA
ASIC AppleLG
Motorola
Analog Devices
ARM
Freescale
Infineon
Qualcomm EXPANDING
Handset
IC
Programmable
Platforms
NokiaRIM/Palm
Samsung
RFMDNXP/Philips
Skyworks
ST Micro
Texas Instruments
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Wire-less Issues that will Drive the Semiconductor Industry
Issues in the
Wire-less World
How the
Semiconductor
Industry will Respond
Ultra Low-Power ProcessTechnology/Low-Power
Design
Power
Package-less Packaging
Higher Levels ofPerformance
Standard Hardware and
Software PlatformsShort Product Life Cycle
Highly Programmable
Solutions
Time-to-Market
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GaAs to CMOS
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Low Power Processes will Dominate
Low Power will Dominate
TSMCs logic technology
roadmap introduced at the
2007 Technology Symposium
dominate the future
Through 2009 there will be
three low power nodesintroduced while general
purpose and high
performance nodes will be
combined for two nodes.
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Package Technology for the Handset and Home Gateway
Packaging will go through
dramatic changes to address
the key issues of power, size,
performance and cost for the
CSR
C1B14
BlueCore4ROM
Infineon
PMB8876
S-Gold2
Intel
Infineon
M1817A11
Marvell
W8686
WLAN
Sk works
Cost break down for a typical ASICusing a flip chip is dominated by the
package
Apples iPhoneSamsung
K9MCC08USM
64GbitNANDFlash
Apple Branded
338S0297
PF38F1030W0YTO2
Wireless Flash
Memory
SKY77340 13
Package sizes are prohibitive and must
be reduced and even eliminated
Migration to Package-less Packaging
and Chip Scale technology will continue
IC Cost Breakdown
o e e u ure rec on
Apple
iPhone
40%
40%
10%10%
Package
Die
Test
Other
As the industry shifts to higher
levels of integration todays
packages will vanish
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Package Cost vs. the Die Cost
IC Cost Breakdown
40%10%
Package
Die
40%
Test
Other
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Package Technology for the Handset and Home Gateway
Packaging will go through
dramatic changes to address
the key issues of power, size,
performance and cost for the
CSR
C1B14
BlueCore4ROM
Infineon
PMB8876
S-Gold2
Intel
Infineon
M1817A11
Marvell
W8686
WLAN
Sk works
Cost break down for a typical ASICusing a flip chip is dominated by the
package
Apples iPhoneSamsung
K9MCC08USM
64GbitNANDFlash
Apple Branded
338S0297
PF38F1030W0YTO2
Wireless Flash
Memory
SKY77340 13
Package sizes are prohibitive and must
be reduced and even eliminated
Migration to Package-less Packaging
and Chip Scale technology will continue
IC Cost Breakdown
o e e u ure rec on
Apple
iPhone
40%
40%
10%10%
Package
Die
Test
Other
As the industry shifts to higher
levels of integration todays
packages will vanish
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Access and Core Network Hardware Migrates to Standardized Platforms
Advanced TCA Standardization
Standard Blades
Standard Modules
Push for open standards
LineCards (3-16)Switch Cards (1-2)
Sync. Clock
Update channel
Base interface
Zone 3
Zone 2
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-
Source: Light Reading
one
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Access and Core Differentiation Migrates to Software Apps
ntiation
Differentiation Migrates to the
Software Applications
e
Differe
OS Based on Standard Linux
Standardized Hardware in the Core
CarrierGra
OS
S
t
HSource: Motorola
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Specific Challenges in the Handset
The Issues
Hardware and Software
Platforms will be Deployed to
Reduce Time to Market While
Increasing Levels of
Integration, Function and
ProgrammabilityPower & Cost
Very Short Product Life Typical Platforms
Cycles
Continuous Drive to Add
Functions, Features and RF MEMSIntelligence in very short
time-frames
Must Meet Multiple Baseband Software
Geographic Marketswith Different Standards
with Little Change
Control Specializedlatform
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The 70s Main Frame Brought Vertical Integration
The Vertical
Integration in the
Main Frame Domain
The End Users
Applications
ServiceLarge Corporate
Installation
I BM 3 7 0
Operating System
System Hardware
Peripherals
ASIC/CPU
Main Frames Were Sold
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o arge orpora ons
and Not to the End Users
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The PC Deconstructed Vertical Integration
The Horizontal Deconstruction brought by the PC
FAB ASIC/CPU System
Hardware
Peripherals Operating
S stem
Applications
TSMC
UMC
CharteredSMIC
Intel
AMD
ToshibaOpenSilicon
eSilicon
Acer
HPDell
Apple
Maxtor
Seagate
KingstonSanDisk
MicrosoftApple
Microsoft
Apple
AdobeCorel
System Integrator & Direct Sales
HP Apple
Dell
Direct Sales to the Customer
Diverse Customer Base from
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Corporations to Individuals
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Seamless Mobility will have a Major Socioeconomic Impact
Pre-Industrial
RevolutionPost-Industrial
Revolution
We are Returning to
a Pre-Industrial
Revolution Model
The Company Providedthe Space to Work
The Factory Provides theSpace and the Tools
The Workers Brought
Their Own Tools
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Seamless Mobility will have a Major Socioeconomic Impact
Modern Society
of TodayAs more of the
intelligence migrates
to the handset it will
Post-Modern
Society
become the primary
tool of the office and
personal life
The Personal
Computer is the
Primary Tool
The workers will
bring their own toolsto the office
The Handset is the
Workers Tool
Content Provided
by Private and
certain layers within thefood-chain that are not
adding significant value
will disappearContent Provided
by Open and Public
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Corporate Servers upp ers
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You Must Add Value in the New World to Survive
Examples of Who Will Face
Threat in the Food Chain
Nokia
A le
The La to The Handset
Retailers Wireless Carries
The Middlemen Will Be Under Threat
- Package Vendors, Distributors, & Reps
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Business Model Will Have Dramatic Change
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You Must Add Value in the New World to Survive
What will happen to the Equipment
Suppliers to the Core Network?
Hardware
Manufacturers
Content
Providing access tothe content will
Standardization
New manufacturingfocused com anies
And Services
Traditionale ui ment
become a large
portion of the
Carriers business
similar to the TV
Networks
will dominate the
hardware for the
core network as
standardization
takes place
suppliers will be
forced higher in the
food chain to
system integration
to add value
Equipment Suppliers Will Become
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System Integrators
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You Must Add Value in the New World to Survive
What will happen to the Carriers
Business Model?
End Users
Carriers
Content Supplier
Carriers Must Give the End User Seamless
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Mobility and Seamless Access to Content
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What Will the World Look Like in the Future?
It will be a world without wire
It will be a Mad-berry world
Certain layers that dominate the food
chain today will disappear
And the workers will bring their own
tools to work with him
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Summary
It will be a world without wire
Intelligence will migrate more to the handset Expert System and AI Concepts Will Be Incorporated
Core and access network will be based on standardizedhardware and software platforms Differentiation Will Be In Applications and Managements SWR
FPGA / ASSPs used mostly in the core and access ASSP Business Future?
Platforms concept will dominate
specialized software programmable IC's
SiGe / GaAs will face threat CMOS is IN ?
ac age- ess ac ag ng an c p sca e ec no ogy wdominate
In the End, Low-Powerwill be King!
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Thank You
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