Telecom Acts as a Stimulus for the Development Process

8/3/2019 Telecom Acts as a Stimulus for the Development Process

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Projected Telecom Scenario

in India in 2020

Submitted By

Sachidanand S Bhat

PRN:10030241158

Div D



Projected Telecom Scenario in India in 2020

Projected Telecom Scenario in India in 2020 Page 2

Contents

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 3

Indian Telecom Sector ................................................................................................................................ 4

Importance of Telecom .............................................................................................................................. 4

TELECOM AND IT ........................................................................................................................................ 5

Telecom Growth and Policy outlined in NTP -2011 ..................................................................................... 6

Emerging Trends and Technologies ............................................................................................................ 8

Global Technology Revolution .................................................................................................................... 9

New and Upcoming Regulations ............................................................................................................... 11

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 13

Best-case Scenario for India 2020 ............................................................................................................. 13

References ............................................................................................................................................... 15





Introduction

Telecom acts as a stimulus for the development process. Over the past decade, Indias

achievement in this sector has been quite impressive. In terms of the overall size of main

telephone lines in operation, the country rose from its 14th rank in the world in 1995 to 7th in

2001.

India has adopted a gradual approach towards telecom sector reforms, through selective

privatisation and managed competition in different market segments. Since the early 1990s, it

has introduced private competition in value-added services, and national and international long

distance telephony. Two state-owned public sector incumbents with a large existing subscriber

base still dominate the fixed line service, in which they own about 35 million direct exchange

lines (DEL).

While the number of DELs has multiplied six-fold since 1991, demand for new lines has grown

nearly as fast, resulting in persistent shortfall of supply and a current waiting list of nearly 3

million lines. India has also achieved significant quality up-gradation of its network in the 1990s,

achieving almost 100 per cent conversion to digital lines. At the same time there has been asignificant reduction in telecom rates paid by consumers.

The opening up of the cellular market has unleashed real dynamism in the marketplace.

Cellular mobile telephone subscribers in India increased from 77 thousand in 1995 to 7.3 million

by June 2002, rising from a 0.6 per cent of the total subscribers to 17 per cent. This level is still

relatively low compared with the average level of about 25 per cent achieved by low-income

countries, 42 per cent by middle-income countries, and upwards of 50 per cent by upper middle-

income and high-income countries. The mobile explosion is helping in improving telecom

penetration, bringing along the concomitant economic benefits of enhanced telecom

accessibility, while at the same time promoting a better entrepreneurial culture, generating

additional employment, and fostering a shift in the investment burden from the state to theprivate sector and the consumers.

India is one of the fastest growing economies across the globe. The economic size of the country,

at the end of the fiscal year 2010, is expected to be worth INR 49 trillion (GDP at market prices). It

is also the fourth largest economy in PPP terms after USA, China and Japan. The country

experienced rapid economic growth between 2003 and 2007, registering an average annual GDP

growth rate of 8.8 percent. In fiscal 2009, the country weathered the global downturn

successfully and registered a GDP growth of 6.7 percent, which is significantly higher than the

performance of both the OECD countries and emerging Asian economies. This performance was

primarily driven by the services sector, which posted a year-over-year growth of 9.7 percent. For

2010, the country is expected to post a GDP growth of 8.5 percent. By 2020, the economy is

expected to quadruple its current size driven by nominal annual growth of 13 percent

.

Progressive liberalization of government policies, rapidly expanding services sector, FDI growth,

rising global competitiveness and increasing domestic demand have all contributed to a strong

economy. India ranks as the number one FDI destination among non-financial investors.





Indian Telecom Sector

Over the past two decades, India has grown rapidly from a command and control economy to a

market-based economy. India is now closely integrated with the global economy and is

considered one of the pillars of global economic growth. The process of liberalization started in

the mid-1980s and gathered momentum in the 1990s, with the further opening of the economyand the creation of regulatory institutions to march toward fully competitive markets. As a result

of liberalization, Indias GDP has been rising by more than 7% annually in the past decade,

compared with 3.5% annually from 1950 to 1980. The Indian economy maintained a growth rate

of more than 5% even during the global recession.

In FY10 (financial year ended 31 March 2010), Indias service sector was estimated to account for

56.9% of GDP, while the industrial sector and agriculture sector contributed 28.5% and 14.6%,

respectively, to GDP. Within the services sector, the telecom sector has been the major

contributor to Indias growth, accounting for nearly 3.6% of total GDP in FY10. In less than a

decade, the mobile phone has been transformed from being a luxury that few could own into one

of the essentials of an average Indians existence. The easy access to mobile services is theoutcome of positive regulatory changes, intense competition among multiple operators, low-

priced handsets, low tariffs and significant investments in telecom infrastructure and networks.

Importance of Telecom

Telecommunication is pivotal to a countrys socioeconomic growth. It is one of the main

architects of the accelerated growth and progress of different segments of the economy.

Narrowing access gaps and removing barriers to information dissemination are prerequisites for

promoting equitable and sustainable development as well as political and social cohesion.

Increasing connectivity is highly instrumental in improving governance, business communication,

and security, response to emergencies and in the overall strengthening of the socio-cultural ethos





of the country. The advantages of the advent of telecommunications are manifold and explicitly

verifiable from the phenomenal success of the sector. Telecom facilitates growth in

y Economic growth

y Job creation

y Social development

y Rural development

y E-governance

y Strengthening investments

y Gender equality

y Mcommerce

y Facilitating research and development

TELECOM AND IT

The vision of telecommunications in 2020 is a vision of information society built on an edifice

where IT and telecommunications merge. Rapid technological convergence has already implied a

symbiotic overlap between the development strategies of IT and telecommunications. Part of

todays IT is telecom writ large, it flourishes on the telecom-network and in turn permits modern

day telecommunications to use sophisticated IT-software. Hardware is a common platform for

both IT and telecom.

There is a legacy vision derived from export-success of Indias software that has given rise to

optimism regarding Indias growing pre-eminence in global IT canvas. Such a vision builds on a

much larger vision of all round development of IT that pervades wide cross-section of Indian

economy and society. Deeper analysis shows that there is need for a comprehensive ITdevelopment strategy to ensure Indias durable presence in the global software market. As

discussion in the subsequent paragraphs will show, enclave type development of software with

exclusive focus on export can not bring about desired benefits if such a strategy ignores the

linkages between export and the domestic market. Vision 2020, therefore, is a much larger vision.

First, it is to be appreciated that foreign exchange contribution of software export net of import

of hardware is roughly fifty per cent .Net foreign exchange contribution will increase if India is

able to develop a strong base of hardware.

Second, scrutiny of the structure of Indias software export vis-à-vis the emerging dynamics of the

global market reveals that India has marginal presence in the fastest growing segment of the

global IT market consisting of software packages and software products .Indias close

competitors, on the other hand, have achieved greater success through diversification of exports

with software packages. There is, therefore, need for India to climb value chain with more

innovative software products in the international market. This is possible when India is able to

broad-base the development of IT with a strong and large domestic market supporting innovation

and its diffusion along with the growth of component manufacturing base. Appropriate synergy

between the domestic and export market will be key to enduring success of Indian IT sector in

overseas market and development of state-of-the art telecom infrastructure is a prerequisite to





both. Finally, development of human resources through IT education, training and skill

development is fundamental to the whole process.

Telecom Growth and Policy outlined in NTP -2011

The primary objective of NTP-2011 is maximizing public good by making available affordable,

reliable and secure telecommunication and broadband services across the entire country. The

main thrust of the Policy is on the multiplier effect and transformational impact of such services

on the overall economy. It recognizes the role of such services in furthering the national

development agenda while enhancing equity and inclusiveness. Direct revenue generation would

continue to remain a secondary objective. NTP-2011 also recognizes the predominant role of the

private sector in this field and the consequent policy imperative of ensuring continued viability of

service providers in a competitive environment. Pursuant to NTP-2011, these principles would

guide decisions needed to strike a balance between the interests of users/ consumers, service

providers and government revenue.

Some of the important objectives of the policy include:

Increase in rural teledensity from the current level of around 35 to 60 by the year 2017

and 100 by the year 2020.

Provide affordable and reliable broadband on demand by the year 2015 and to achieve

175 million broadband connections by the year 2017 and 600 million by the year 2020 at

minimum 2 Mbps download speed and making available higher speeds of at least 100 Mbps on

demand.

Provide high speed and high quality broadband access to all village panchayats through

optical fibre by the year 2014 and progressively to all villages and habitations.

Promote indigenous R&D, innovation and manufacturing that serve domestic and foreign

markets.

Promote the domestic production of telecommunication equipment to meet 80% Indian

telecom sector demand through domestic manufacturing with a value addition of 65% by the

year 2020.

Provide preferential market access for domestically manufactured telecommunication

products including mobile devices, SIM cards with enhanced features etc. with special emphasis

on Indian products for which IPRs reside in India to address strategic and security concerns of the

Government, consistent with international commitments.

Strive to create One Nation - One License across services and service areas.

Achieve One Nation - Full Mobile Number Portability and work towards One Nation - Free

Roaming.





To reposition the mobile phone from a mere communication device to an instrument of

empowerment that combines communication with proof of identity, fully secure financial and

other transaction capability, multi-lingual services and a whole range of other capabilities that

ride on them and transcend the literacy barrier.

Deliver seamless ICT, multimedia and broadcasting services on converged networks for

enhanced service delivery to provide superior experience to customers.

Optimize transmission of services to consumers irrespective of their devices or locations

by Fixed-Mobile Convergence thus making available valuable spectrum for other wireless

services.

Facilitate consolidation in the converged telecom service sector while ensuring sufficient

competition.

Mandate an ecosystem to ensure setting up of a common platform for interconnection of

various networks for providing non-exclusive and non-discriminatory access.

Promote an ecosystem for participants in VAS industry value chain to make India a global

hub for Value Added Services (VAS).

Ensure adequate availability of spectrum and its allocation in a transparent manner

through market related processes. Make available additional 300 MHz spectrum for International

Mobile Telephony (IMT) services by the year 2017 and another 200 MHz by 2020.

Strengthen the framework to address the environmental and health related concerns

pertaining to the telecom sector.

Encourage adoption of green policy in telecom and incentivize use of renewable resources

for sustainability.

Protect consumer interest by promoting informed consent, transparency and

accountability in quality of service, tariff, usage etc.

Encourage recognition and creation of synergistic alliance of public sector and other

organizations of Department of Telecommunications (DoT) through appropriate policy

interventions.

Achieve substantial transition to new Internet Protocol (IPv 6) in the country in a phased

and time bound manner by 2020 and encourage an ecosystem for provision of a significantlylarge bouquet of services on IP platform.

Put in place a web based, real time e-governance solution to support online submission of

applications for all services of DoT and issuance of l icenses and clearances from DoT.

Some of the major strategies proposed in the policy include:





To make efforts to recognize telecom and broadband connectivity as a basic necessity like

education and health and work towards Right to Broadband.

To revise the existing broadband download speed of 256 Kbps to 512 Kbps by 2011 and

subsequently to 2 Mbps by 2015 and higher speeds of atleast 100 Mbps thereafter.

To spur the domestic telecom equipment manufacturing segment to meet the indigenous

demands for becoming self-reliant in telecom/ICT equipment design and manufacturing.

To encourage indigenous manufacturing of cost effective customer end terminals and

devices including mobile devices, SIM cards with enhanced features etc.

To build synergies between existing, on-going and future Government programs viz e-

governance, e-panchayats, NREGA, NKN, AADHAR, AAKASH tablet etc. and roll-out of broadband.

To ensure the availability of sufficient microwave spectrum to meet current and future

demand for wireless backhaul especially in prime bands below 12 GHz, in addition to higher

spectrum bands. Unlicensed spectrum will be made available for proliferation of wireless

broadband services.

To ensure focused indigenous development in the telecom sector, efforts would be

concentrated towards a definite policy direction by creating a suitable road-map to align

technology, demand, standards and regulations, after considered evaluation of candidate

technologies and the emerging trends.

To create fund to promote indigenous R&D, IPR creation, entrepreneurship,

manufacturing, commercializing and deployment of state-of-the-art telecom products and

services.

To promote setting up of Telecommunications Standard Development Organisation

(TSDO) as an autonomous body with strong participation of the industry, R&D centers, service

providers, and academia to drive consensus regarding national requirements.

To orient, review and harmonise the legal, regulatory and licensing framework in a time

bound manner to enable seamless delivery of converged services in technology neutral

environment. The convergence would cover convergence of services, networks and devices.

Emerging Trends and Technologies

Over the past decade, the Indian telecommunication sector has witnessed growth at an

impressive rate. The sector has contributed, in a very real way, to the Governments agenda of

inclusive growth. Not only has the sector contributed to the generation of millions of jobs, it has

also made essential services like banking and healthcare available to the remotest parts of the

country. What has made the Indian telecom sector an incredible growth story is the fact that

inclusive growth has been achieved and the growth momentum is being sustained even though





urban market is increasingly getting saturated, with the urban teledensity already at 134.08 as on

August 31, 20101. The industry has witnessed an aggressive tariff war in the previous year, with

the maximum correction happening in Q3, FY 2010 and Q4, FY 2010.

There has been a 30 percent decline in tariffs and as a result the aggressive growth has not been

reflective in the profit margins. With the changing landscape of the sector in the form of rural

expansion, increasing competition and the ever-declining ARPUs, operators are experiencing rate

erosion and are now finding it difficult to sustain the profit margins they enjoyed over the last

few years. Coupled with the Governments vision of providing quality telecom services to the

remotest parts of the country and facilitating its social agenda through widespread availability of

broadband services, the time is now ripe to explore and evaluate next generation technologies

which will help drive the next phase of growth for the sector. Due to the euphoria surrounding

the 3G rollout, the Indian consumer has awakened to the advantages offered by these advanced

technologies in the form of improved quality and reliability at reduced costs, and is eagerly

waiting for their introduction in the country.

Global Technology Revolution

Globally, mobile technologies have matured significantly over last two decades. Mobile phones

have evolved from being simply voice call enablers to personal devices providing advanced

facilities like internet access on the go and location tracking.

The inception of wireless telephony was initiated through the introduction of 1G, a wireless

analogue standard that came in as early as 1980. The 1G standard was replaced by the 2G

standard in 1991. The key difference between the two standards was that 2G network allowed

digital encryption of the communication. In the run-up to transition to 3G technology, the 2G

standard went through two rounds of development. The 2.5G standard, commonly known as

GPRS, was introduced mainly for voice services and slow data transmission. However, with a

constant demand for improvement, 2.75G (EDGE) was introduced to ensure faster datatransmission speeds. EDGE and GPRS were initially being propagated as 3G technologies but

considering the present speed of 3G services they have been earmarked as 2G transitional

technologies. The constant demand for innovation resulted in launch of 3G technologies across

the globe. This technology would allow simultaneous flow of data as well as voice services data

speeds for the end consumer.

It was expected to revolutionize the wireless broadband space because of the extremely high

data speeds capabilities that it possesses. The development of 3G has also resulted in the





inception of LTE and WiMax, are often referred to as 4G technologies, but none of them meet the

criteria of International Mobile Telecommunications-Advanced (IMT-A) requirements. LTE is a

3.9G technology and WiMax is categorized as a 3G transitional technology. These technologies

are still within the growth phase and the transition towards 4G has already begun. 4G will induce

flexible and wider bandwidth channels; peak stationary data rates of 1 gigabits per second and

global data rates of 100 megabits per seconds; better link and system spectra efficiencies in the

downlink; better interoperability and smooth handoff between different networks; seamless

connectivity and high quality of service for bandwidth intensive web applications. In other words,

4G will quadruple data speeds for the end consumer.

3G - The technological revolution

With margins and profitability under strain, operators are increasingly embracing 3G technology

as a means to sustaining the current growth trends. 3G technology is viewed the world over as an

efficient enabler for not only reducing costs associated with delivery of voice and data services,

but also for enhancing the delivery and uptake of value added services. Industry estimates

suggest that the growth rate of 3G subscribers worldwide could be greater than 10 percent over

the next three years. After some delays, 3G reached the Indian shores with the successful

completion of the 3G auctions earlier this year. Recognizing the potential of 3G services, bidding

for spectrum was aggressive enough that not a single operator was able to win a pan-India

license. While some private players have indicated plans to roll out 3G services by the end of the

year, government-owned BSNL and MTNL successfully launched their services last year.

3G uptake and future growth will be driven primarily by the development of innovative, locally

relevant and vernacular content, faster internet access enabling audio and video streaming, and

increased affordability of 3G-handsets. 3G handsets from established brands are available in the

sub 50 USD categories now, infact; a handset market leader in India has recently launched the

cheapest 3G handset costing INR 4,700 only. Additionally, the rapid growth in sale of

3G-enabled handsets, which accounted for 16.7 percent of total handset sales in 2010, promises

a strong latent demand for 3G services in the country.

4G A comprehensive IP solution

4G encompasses a comprehensive IP-based solution providing features like IP telephony, ultra-

broadband Internet access and streamed multimedia at data rates that are higher as compared to

previous generations of technology. Industry reports estimated that 4G rollout could translate

into 150 million subscriptions by 2014.

Not resting on their laurels, the Indian government has proactively started exploring 4G

technology, soon after the success of 3G auctions. TRAI has already floated consultation papers

regarding 4G and this technology is likely to make headway into India by 2013.

5G Technology

5G development is currently at a nascent stage globally. However, the Indian government has

already started taking proactive steps in terms of testing and competing for newer technologies

as compared to many developed nations.





Green Telecom

Since the late 1900s, the Telecommunications industry has played a major role in shaping how we

live, and today it is the backbone of the global economy, with total revenues in excess of INR 84

trillion. The growth in the industry is led by the increase in wireless subscription expected to

continue and cross 82 billion by 2020 from current subscriber base of 4.61 billion globally. With

increase in demand for telecom services, the energy consumption has also grown significantly

and poses an environmental challenge in terms of larger carbon footprint of the

telecommunication industry.

The total global carbon footprint of the ICT industry as a whole is in the order of 8003 million ton

CO2 which is approximately 2 percent of global emissions. Of this, the contribution from global

telecommunication systems - mobile, fixed and communications devices are around 2303 million

ton CO2 or approximately 0.7percent of global emissions. The Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions

from the mobile industry arise mainly from sources like:

Energy consumed by the network operation

Emissions of the embedded network equipment,

Energy consumed by mobile handsets and other devices, when they are manufactured,

distributed and used.

New and Upcoming Regulations

The Indian Telecommunication sector has seen remarkable growth and is designated as one of

the fastest growing markets in the world. It is also the second largest wireless network across the

globe, after China. The aggressive growth has resulted in saturation of the urban markets and the

Indian telecommunication authorities are looking to introduce new technologies to sustain the

market growth rate.

Broadband Wireless Access (BWA)

The auction of the BWA spectrum helped the government raise as much as INR 385 billion after

117 rounds of bidding that lasted 16 days. At the end of the auction, only one company managed

to successfully bid for a pan-India license. Broadband Wireless Access is expected to provide an

effective solution to the challenge of low broadband penetration. The launch of this technology is

expected to bring India closer to the achieving the target broadband connectivity to Gram

Panchayats level by 2012. Presently, India has a broadband subscriber base of only 10.08 million.

BWA is expected to bridge the urban-rural digital divide and help address concerns of deliveringessential services like education, finance and healthcare in rural areas.

MVNO

The Indian Government is in the process of reviewing the draft guidelines for the introduction of

MVNO. TRAI had issued a draft proposal for MVNO in August, 2008 and the DoT had accepted the

proposal in February, 2009. The present landscape is considered to be ripe for MVNOs to be





introduced in India since it will allow the telcos, who did not manage to win any 3G spectrum, to

offer these data services via the MVNO route.

A few companies have already made inroads into the MVNO market by leveraging the franchise

agreements.

VoIP

The growing telecommunication industry has necessitated the demand for low cost domestic and

international calls. This is where Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) will make its impact with a

technology that allows the exchange of voice over internet protocol packet switches. The primary

requirement for this low cost option to deliver impeccable quality is high bandwidth. This

technology can be used to effectively communicate between two personal computers, a personal

computer and a conventional phone as well as between two conventional phones. Recent reports

reveal that the internet subscriber base in India has risen from 13.54 million in March 2009 to

16.72 million in June 2010. These numbers suggest a 23 percent growth in internet subscriber

base, which also implies greater propensity to utilize VoIP based services. The only major

deterrent for the adoption of these services will be the costs involved in setting up these services,

especially in rural areas across the country. VoIP has received significant regulatory attention

over the past decade. In 2002, TRAI had recommended to DoT to open up this sector in a

restricted manner. In 2005, DoT permitted unlimited internet telephony to all access providers in

India. In 2006, limited access was also given to internet service providers, who were asked for 6

percent of their revenues as license fee and were restricted from termination and carriage in

India.





Conclusion

The Indian telecom sector has proved to be an international success story. Nearly all major

international telecom operators have made signifi cant efforts towards making inroads into the

Indian market in order to tap the immense potential offered as well as to leverage on the low

cost outsourcing model which has been pioneered in India. The sector has witnessed acommendable growth over the past 2 years. At present there are 15 operators in the market

offering the lowest mobile tariffs across the globe. With an overall subscriber base of 706.3

million and a teledensity of about 60 percent, the sector continues to growth from strength to

strength. With the urban teledensity crossing 100 percent, the market has been showing signs of

maturity, especially in case of the uptake of voice-based services.

The urban markets may continue to add more users; however, usage of multiple SIMs, multiple

tariff corrections and swelling competition continues to exert immense pressure on the operator

margins. Rural India is the key target market likely to drive the next round of growth, particularly

for voice-based services. 3G and BWA are expected to reinvigorate the maturing urban markets

and help the telcos to achieve margin enhancement.

The aggressive growth observed by mobile services is yet to be replicated in case of broadband

services, where the subscriber base currently stands at 10.08 million as on August 31, 20101.

However, the broadband sector can expect tremendous growth in the future, considering that

there are more than 650 million potential customers waiting to be tapped. The successfully

concluded auction of the BWA and 3G spectrum will enhance the wireless broadband penetration

across the country and help connect the remotest locations across India.

The government appreciates the importance of broadband for India and how this technology can

help the rural population across the country to leverage the advantages of modern education,

healthcare, commerce and banking. To further this agenda, the government has setup a robustregulatory environment to work towards the development of the sector. This proactive

regulatory environment will also be the harbinger for the next phase of development for the

telecommunications sector.

Best-case Scenario for India 2020

Identifying potentials and anticipating the challenges to our future progress in different sectors of

the national economy does not constitute a vision of the countrys future. These disparate

threads need to be woven together to reflect the integrated nature of our national life. Then,

there still remains the question of whether to be preoccupied by the negative possibilities or to

throw our full weight behind efforts to fully realise the positive potentials revealed by this

analysis. That will determine whether we regard the following statement as a promising glimpse

of what India can become in 2020, or as mere fantasy and wishful thinking.

India 2020 will be bustling with energy, entrepreneurship and innovation. The countrys 1.35

billion people will be better fed, dressed and housed, taller and healthier, more educated and

longer living than any generation in the countrys long history. Illiteracy and all major contagious





diseases will have disappeared. School enrolment from age 6 to 14 will near 100 per cent and

drop out rates will fall to less than one in twenty.

A second productivity revolution in Indian agriculture, coupled with diversification to commercial

crops, agri-business, processing industries, agro-exports and massive efforts towards

afforestation and wasteland development will generate abundant farm and non-farm

employment opportunities for the rural workforce. These in turn will stimulate demand for

consumer goods and services, giving a fillip to the urban economy and the informal sector as well

as rapid expansion of the services sector.

Indias claim to the title Silicon Valley of Asia will be followed by the diversification from IT to

biotechnology, medical sciences and other emerging fields of technology, widening the field of

Indias international competitiveness and generating a large number of employment

opportunities for the educated youth. These developments, driven by the firm commitment of

the government and a quantum expansion of vocational training programmes, will ensure jobs

for all by 2020.

Inequalities between different age groups, the sexes, income groups, communities and regions

will come down dramatically. The old disparities between the very rich and the poor will not have

disappeared, but the nature of poverty in 2020 will not be nearly as harsh and oppressive as it as

at the turn of the millennium. Regional disparities will remain visible, though all regions will have

93 advanced significantly in two decades. Indias achievements have been fuelled by the

realisation that the progress of the whole ultimately depends on the progress of its weakest links;

India 2020 must be one in which all levels and sections of the population and all parts of the

country march forward together towards a more secure and prosperous future.

The increasingly congested urban traffic will be motorised as never before. Two wheelers will be

ubiquitous and cars will be considered essential for most middle class families. City roads and

rural highways will improve substantially in number, capacity and quality, but a four-fold

multiplication in the number of vehicles will tax the urban infrastructure to the limit. Urban

congestion will accelerate the movement of business, middle class families and even government

offices into new self-contained suburban centres. Cell phones, computers and the Internet will

permeate every aspect of life and every corner of the country.

Computerisation of education will dramatically improve the quality of instruction and the pace of

learning, so that many students will complete the first twelve years of school curriculum in as

little as eight. Computerised distance education will catch on in a big way and enable tens of

thousands more students to opt for affordable higher education. Computerisation in government

will streamline procedures and response times to a degree unimaginable now. Perceptive

observers will find that India is leapfrogging directly into a predominantly service economy.

Environmental issues will remain a serious concern. Urban air pollution will come under control

by strict enforcement of motor vehicle emission standards and widespread use of ethanol

blended motor fuels, but water shortages in major metropolitan areas will continue despite a

national programme to popularise water harvesting techniques in both urban and rural areas. A

massive afforestation programme will reverse the depletion of forest areas, raise the nations





Green cover to 33 per cent of area, generate millions of rural employment opportunities, and

provide abundant renewable energy from biomass power production.

India will be much more integrated with the global economy and will be a major player in terms

of trade, technology and investment. Rising levels of education, employment and income will

help stabilise Indias internal security and social environment. A united and prosperous India will

be far less vulnerable to external security threats.

A more prosperous India in 2020 will be characterised by a better-educated electorate and more

transparent, accountable, efficient and decentralised government.

References

[1] http://www.kpmg.com/IN/en/IssuesAndInsights/ThoughtLeadership/India_Telecom_2010.pdf

[2] http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/genrep/bkpap2020/1_bg2020.pdf

[3] http://www.dot.gov.in/NTP-2011/press_brief_NTP-latest.pdf

[4] http://www.ibef.org/download/IndiaNewOpportunity.pdf

[5] http://www.coai.in/docs/Indian%20Cellular%20Industry-TI,%20May'07.pdf

Telecom Acts as a Stimulus for the Development Process

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