Technology Foresight and Knowledge Creation - Predicting ...

Technology Foresight and Knowledge Creation -

Predicting the Unpredictable

Yrjö Neuvo

IMPROVING THE EFFICIENCY OF PRESENT TECHNOLOGY

A more efficient engine

SWITCHING TECHNOLOGY TO PERFORM THE SAME TASK An electric car

MODIFYING THE TASK Modern public transportation

MAKING WIDE REACHING CHANGES TO WHAT IS DONE

Removing the need to move

IMPROVING ENERGY

EFFICIENCY

22/11/2013 2

Target Setting

Modern Chain Saw

Hype Chart 1/06

Handset Sensors

NFC

Mobile Broadcast TV Ajax Mash-ups / Web 2.0

3.9 / 4G

Mobile Linux

MVNOs

”Long Tail”

Mobile music

Mobile search

WiMax

Enterprise mobile apps

Wireless email

VoIP

LBS

RSS

Technology Trigger

Peak of inflated expectations

Trough of disillusionment

Slope of enlightment

Plateau of productivity

Time to reach plateau 2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-

MATURITY

VISI

BIL

ITY

Predicting the Unpredictable

Wireless Foresight – Scenarios of the Mobile World in 2015. Karlson et al, Wiley 2003 Nokia Mobile Phones scenarios: 1. Autumn Harvest 2. Speech Goes Mobile 3. Multimedia Jungle Ten years is long time and 20 is almost infinity

Research Dynamics

Dynamics of Basic Research

1844

TelegraphMorse

1870

ElectromagnetismMaxwell

1888

ElectromagneticwavesHertz

1896

WirelesstelegraphyMarconi

1904

Electron tube Fleming

1925

RadarAppletonBarnett

1948

TransistorBardeenBrattain

Shockley

1981

Analogcellular

SystemsNMT andAMPS arelaunched

The age ofDigital

CellularSystems isstarting, firstGSM call in

Helsinki

1876

TelephoneBell

1917

1947

CellularsystemconceptAT&T

1958

IntegratedcircuitsTexas

Instruments

1971

The firstmicro

processorIntel 4004

FourierAnalysisFourier

InformationTheory

ShannonSamplingTheoryNyquist

1928

SpectralAnalysisWiener

1930

Algorithms andcomputation

Turing

1936 1948

EstimationTheoryWiener

1942

1940

First concepts forspread spectrum

systems

1822

TeletrafficTheoryErlang

Digital signalprocessor

TexasInstruments

1983 1991

CodingTheory

Hamming

1950

FastFourier

TransformCooleyTukey

1965

MarkovChain

StochasticProcessMarkov

1900

PoissonProcessPoisson

1837

1933

FMmodulationArmstrong

GaloisField

Galois

1846

Signal Processing Research Today

Ian F. Akyildiz, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA Holland Cheng, University of California, USA Holly Jimison, Oregon Health & Science University, USA Pavel Jungwirth, Academy of Sciences, Tsekki Wei Zhang, University of Texas, USA Michael Pavel, Oregon Health & Science University, USA Stefan Kurz, ETAS GmbH, Stuttgart, Saksa Ralf Metzler, Technical University of Munich, Saksa Günter Steinmeyer, Max-Born-Institut für Nichtlineare Optik und Kurzzeitspektroskopie, Saksa Manos M. Tentzeris,Georgia Institute of Technology, USA

Research is International Current FiDiPro-professors at TUT

ASATIANI, ALEKSANDRE – Georgian, Research topic: Impact of cloud-based enterprise information systems on organization. BADHAM, MARK – Australian, Research topic: Media management, media-corporate communications symbiotic relationship. DEL CARPIO VEGA, LUIS FELIPE – Peruvian, Research topic: Wireless access design for beyond 4G systems. ELISCHKA, SYNES – Austrian, Research topic: Audience engagement and the future of cinema. ISLAM, HASAN – Bangladeshi, Research topic: Information centric networking in challenged environments. SCEPANOVIC, SANJA – Montenegrin, Research topic: Social network analysis / human social psychology, human dynamics. VENTURA, EMANUELE – Italian, Research topic: Combinatorial commutative algebra and its applications to pure and applied mathematics. VU BA TIEN, DUNG – Vietnamese, Research topic: Energy-efficiency in ICT and mobile computing. WANG, SHUCHEN – Taiwanese, Research topic: Cultural heritage in the digital age.

Bit Bang 6 Foreign Participants

Telecommunications Equipment US patents 2006: Motorola 522, Nokia 501, Cisco 453, Lucent 410,Ericsson 389, Nortel 382, Qualcomm 211 2008: Nokia 730, Alcatel-Lucent 696, Cisco 660, Motorola 631, Qualcomm 284, Ericsson 277, Nortel 274 2010: Cisco 950, Alcatel-Lucent 737, Nokia 702, Motorola 508, Qualcomm 389, Ericsson 285, Nortel 245

Source IEEE Spectrum, Patent Power 2006, 2008 and 2010

Goliaths’ Fight for IPR, Who Makes 6G?

Digitalization

Silicon IC’s

showed

10000 fold

performance

increase

Past 25 Years

Exponential performance growth

6 billion subscribers In 25 years data speed increase 10000x

• Google Earth • Google Maps • Google Android • Google Scholar • Gmail • Google Translate • Google Chrome • You Tube •Etc.

Internet”Monopolies” Born in 10 Years

- Search, Big Data, Skype, Social media, .. - Smart everything, - China, Korea

Founded in 1988

Wireless Traffic Beats Moore’s Law

Internet traffic is doubling in less than 3 years Mobile data is doubling annually 7.4 % of Internet traffic in 2014

One GB per mobile user per day by 2020

Applications are driving the network evolution

• PoS terminal network • 6000 nodes • 14 million measurements/hr • Downtime < 5 min in 4 years

Mobile operator DNA 120k elements monitored in real time

Large Scale Systems

Crowdsourcing and Big Data

Internet of Things is Here

Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, says that within the next three years, his company aims to produce systems capable of safely taking the helm for 90 percent of miles driven.

Solutions and Services Business

SW Solutions for the entire wood procurement chain

Car and Smart Phone are Almost the Same!

Point-to-point connections

LIN, CAN, Flexray, MOST

central Gateway

Network Management

Comm protocols: ISO-TP, BAP, etc

High End Vector Graphics

Accelerator logic

Frame buffer

CTRL ASIP

Ext IO S

oC bus

Sensor subsystem Peripheral bus

I2C

Pre-processing Ext IO

Connectivity Peripheral bus

BT USB I2C

Ext IO

SSI Irda UART

Storage

Controller +Security

+RM Ext IO

CF Nano disk MStick OMAP

MCU

Low-end Vector graphics

subsystem

SoC bus Ext IO

M DMA

Imaging & Audio

MCU

Camera Subsystem

ASIP M

SoC bus

Ext IO

DMA

Multiradio MCU L2/3

MCU L1

WLAN WCDMA

M SoC bus

EGPRS

Ext IO RF DMA

Interconnections & Protocols

High End Game Engine

SoC bus

Ext IO

MCU M

Nano Technologies

Nanotechnologies Module of Elasticity: Glass fiber 70, Nanocellulose 150, Steel 200

Carbon nanotube

First Nanotube IC’s on Plastic

Inverters

Ring oscillators (3, 11, 21 stages)

NOR and NAND logic gates

RS- and D- flip-flops

Sun et al,Nature Nanotechnology (2011) 6

Concluding Remarks