DATA // » Firm survey among 2032 producers and service providers (March 2016) » Current, past and future work equipment (machines, computers, robots, etc.) » Linked to social security records of all workers employed in the surveyed firms 2 CONCLUSIONS // » Slow but accelerating adoption of 4.0 technologies » Widening digital divide in the firm landscape » Neutral effect on total firm labor demand » Labor demand shifts » towards interactive and analytical tasks » from medium skilled to low- and high-skilled workers » in favor of younger workers 6 ECONOMETRIC APPROACH // Estimate 5-year changes (∆) in labor demand in firm i and worker group j: 4 NUMBER OF WORKERS VALUE ADDED RELATIVE WAGES TECHNOLOGY TYPE SPECIFIC CAPITAL STOCKS ∆ ln N ij = α ∆ lnY i + β ∆ ln w i +∑ ∑ γ jk ∆ ln C ik + є ij w ij J K j=1 k=1 COMPLEMENTARITY/SUBSTITUTION EFFECTS BETWEEN CAPITAL TYPE K AND WORKER GROUP J RESULTS // IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENTS ON FIRM LABOR DEMAND BY WORKER GROUP, 2011–2016, IN PERCENT 5 CONTRIBUTION // » Provide first evidence on the diffusion of cutting-edge 4.0 technologies among German firms » Estimate the impact of technology on jobs on a firm-level » Estimate complementarity/substitution effects between technologies and worker groups 1 Technology and Jobs in the Fourth Industrial Revolution FIRM-LEVEL EVIDENCE 3.0 TECHNOLOGIES 4.0 TECHNOLOGIES 1.0/2.0 TECHNOLOGIES LABOR DEMAND EFFECT RISING DEGREE OF AUTOMATION AND DIGITALIZATION 1.0 ECONOMY 2.0 ECONOMY 3.0 ECONOMY 4.0 ECONOMY DESCRIPTIVES // 3 COMPOSITION OF FIRMS’ WORK EQUIPMENT PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT (IN %) OFFICE AND COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT (IN %) 2011 2016 2021 0 20 40 60 80 100 5.8 7.8 13.4 50.5 42.8 34.5 49.4 52.1 43.8 2011 2016 2021 0 20 40 60 80 100 3.7 5.1 7.9 85.9 83.1 78.8 11.9 13.3 10.4 DIGITAL DIVIDE » mostly larger and more capital- intensive firms » larger revenues and profits » more aware of chances and risks of digitization » a lot of interactive work » least digitized » smaller firms with lower revenues and profits » least aware of chances and risks of digitization » employ mostly middle skilled workers » a lot of manual routine work GROUP I: FORERUNNERS invested in 4.0 technologies GROUP II: LATECOMERS never invested in 4.0 technologies Small share but fast growth of 4.0 technologies • 3.0 TECHNOLOGIES 4.0 TECHNOLOGIES 1.0/2.0 TECHNOLOGIES γ jk ≥ 55 46–54 41–45 31–40 ≤ 30 1.50 2.00 1.00 0.50 -0.50 0.00 Modern technologies complement younger workers while substituting for older ones • AGE with university degree with vocational training without vocational training 1.50 2.00 1.00 0.50 -0.50 0.00 Polarization within firms in favor of both low- and high-skilled workers at the expense of the middle-skilled • EDUCATION LABOR DEMAND EFFECT γ jk γ jk LABOR DEMAND EFFECT γ jk 1.50 2.00 1.00 0.50 -0.50 0.00 cognitive routine manual routine manual non-routine interactive non-routine analytic non-routine Shifts in labor demand from routine tasks towards non-routine tasks (e.g. problem solving, intuition, creativity and social competence) TASKS LABOR DEMAND EFFECT // MELANIE ARNTZ, SABRINA GENZ, TERRY GREGORY, MARKUS JANSER, FLORIAN LEHMER, BRITTA MATTHES, ULRICH ZIERAHN // CONTACT: [email protected] 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL •