Technology and International Relations Technology has had profound impacts on warfare and thus broader International Politics There are some key concepts.

Technology and International Relations Technology has had profound impacts

on warfare and thus broader International Politics

There are some key concepts to keep in mind about changes in technology. These inform us of how international

relations has evolved, particularly through war.

It also suggests how the future will evolve as well.

More conceptual issues Combat involves decision making under risk Implementation of Technology requires resources

Resources may be material or physical! Cost/benefit calculations involved

Issues of cognition are involved in integrating technology

The conceptual understanding of the implications of a weapon system may be slow in coming

Loss-of-strength gradient E.g. Melee vs. ranged weapons

Offense vs. defense Technology influences the ability of political units

to sustain themselves

A Brief History of Military Technology

Start with Pre-history Run it to present – then future First weapons

Basic weapon types (or weapon systems)

Mêlée Ranged Armor Fortifications Transportation

Paleolithic - < 12,000 BCE Rocks

knife ~ 2,500,000 years ago) Bones, sticks (Mêlée weapons for you

gamers out there) Fire hardened sticks Basically Clubs

Ranged weapons Darts Slings Bow, Arrow Spears, javelin, atlatl

Paleolithic – Defense Fire (~1,000,000 BCE) Rope (~ 17,000 BCE) the wall

smaller # of defenders versus attackers

wait prepared this made agriculture "cost-effective“ Lanchester theory

3-1 ratio of offense to defense is classical estimate

Tel es-Sultan in Jericho1st

Walled city ~9000BCE

Neolithic – Mêlée weapons(12,000 BCE – 3,000 BCE)

Axe (with hafts – maybe much older) Mace Polearms (quarterstaff, trident)

Neolithic – Ranged weapons

Blowgun Throwing sticks, axes Dart Bola

Source: Wikipedia “Bolas” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolas

Bronze Age – Defense & Armor

Armor Shield (13-14th century BC Egyptian) Helm – 900BC Assyrian Cataphract (~300 BCE)

Transportation Boats - ~8,000 BCE The Wheel (~ 5,000 BCE)

Siege Weapons Siege Tower – late Bronze Age

Bronze Age 3300 BCE – 1200 BCE

Swords – early ones in Egypt, Turkey, and China

Knives The Wheel (~ 5,000 BCE)

Chariot – Sumerian, Egyptian

The Iron Age – the Greeks The phalanx

Hoplites locked shields Second & third ranks poked spears over Allowed greater ratio of fighters

Military discipline allowed for protection on the right made attacks predictable

The ability to march and maneuver offset this.

Greek Weapons

Crossbow (but also China) – 5th Cent BCE

Siege weapons Ballista Catapult

The Greave - increased armor Greek Fire

Roman Empire Professional soldier/standing army

Gaius Marius – 107 BC Ranks from Greeks (elected!) Discipline – fought in cohorts Consolidated from Warlord-like system

Mobility Roads

Prohibited castles increase in horsemanship

Chariots/heavy cavalry The province of the wealthy – had to purchase equipment- and horse!

Stirrups invented by Chinese in Jin dynasty ~300AD Widespread use in China by 477 AD (?) Made it to Europe in 7th & 8th century

Roman Weapons

Static Weapons – Caltrops Testudo Pilum

Bends after throwing Onager Catapulta – tossed javelins

The Roman Empire in Decline The Carolingian Empire used cavalry for

logistics Became significant political structure in the West as Rome

declined Charles Martel Charlemagne

The Holy Roman Empire began to confront the steady introduction of the stirrup and more refined horsemanship

Allowed Castles Protection of food & water supplies

Height & Stability

The Rise of Fortress Europe Which is, to say, Feudal Europe

This exemplifies the back and forth nature of a weapons system. Cavalry rises and then declines.

Medieval

Siege weapons Onager – sling with single rock Mangonel – bucket-like catapult Battering rams Trebuchet Petard – explosive for attacking walls

Medieval Longbow

Effective in Crecy and Agincourt Cannon used scatteringly in Europe

100 years war, Battle of Crecy, 1346 Constantinople 1453

The Great Turkish Bombard (Sahi) The Pike square (Swiss invention)

establishes the primacy of infantry over cavalry

The fort/castle evolves Forts & castles abound during this period

due to the loss of either central authority or ‘national security’

Castles Motte-and-bailey – mounds with

perimeter ditches, and wooden palisade Keep – inner fortification Gatehouses to protect weakest spot Rounded/angled walls to protect from

cannon and square towers to protect from mining and battering rams

Star forts It takes a thousand years for these

innovations to evolve, as technology adapts

Castles & Cannon

With the advent of castles, Europe fragmented in 1000s of principalities

With cannon the trend reversed Cannon sped the shift of the

balance of power to the side with the most cash Artillery is expensive to purchase,

maintain and practice The side with the most money wins

Seapower The Galley had been the mainstay of naval

weaponry for 2000 years (800BC to ~1400AD) ramming and boarding the traditional maneuver

Cannon changed this. Replaced by man-o-war in 14th-15th century

up to 40% of the firepower could be used at one time.

Sailing speed increased somewhat up until the adoption of steam propulsion and ironclads. –

This led to the need for supply bases (ports) which led to a further rash of colonization in the late 1800's

Seapower and trade

The caravel formed the first trading fleets (Prince Henry the Navigator) Utilized more diverse sail

arrangements (lateen as well as square sails)

Maps become substantially better in late 15th early 16th century

Seapower and wealth

Seapower aids in the development of regional economies, and eventually to the development of a global economy

Naval capacity allows for greater comparative advantage More direct transactions (fewer

intermediaries) hence greater access to the developing markets

American Revolution

Musket – muzzle loader The long land pattern musket –

Or “Brown Bess”

Tactics changed as the weapons became more available

The American Civil War

The first “Modern War” The trench Railroad Balloon Ironclads telegraph Breech loading rifle

Spenser repeating rifle

WWI

Machine gun (WWI)- defensive Tank (WWI) The Airplane (WWI) Poison Gas/Chemical weapons Submarine (really invented in

Revolutionary War) Radio Automobile

WWII Sub Machine gun – portable, offensive The aircraft carrier Radar Paratroopers Cryptography

(German Enigma machine) Incendiary weapons (Dresden, Tokyo) Rocket/missile Nuclear weapons

The Cold War

ICBMs Satellites ABM

Korean War

Jet aircraft Helicopter introduced M.A.S.H

Replaced by Combat Support Hospitals

Helicopter Computers Napalm Defoliants (Agent Orange) Precision weapons

Thanh Hoa Bridge – 1972 – first use

Vietnam

Persian Gulf/Iraq/Afghanistan

Stealth technology Information battlefield Cyber War IEDs – e.g. Iraq ABM – Patriot missile Unmanned aircraft

Predator Drones

All of which leads us to the present

Star Wars NMD Cyber War Weapon system senility

Weapon systems age Or become vulnerable and are

replaced

Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative - NMD)

Begun in previous administrations Nike-Zeus ABM And announced and promoted under

Reagan SDI is a defensive concept Concept is the implementation of a

defensive shield to protect against ICBMs

Type of SDI systems Energy Weapons

Lasers - for example Particle Beams

Space bases kinetic energy weapons Rail guns Interceptors

Ground based ABM systems ERIS (Exo-atmospheric Reentry Interceptor

Subsystem) HEDI (High Endo-atmospheric Defense

Interceptor)

Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative – NMD) The basics of anti-ballistic missile

defense Time Altitude

Boost phase 300 - 50 secs 400km Bus Phase 60 - 650 secs Midcourse Phase Reentry Phase

Kinetic energy weapons KE weapons work based upon their

velocity, and the velocity of the target

Thus a 1gr bullet traveling at 2000m/sec imparts 2000000gr/sec2 of energy

Thus a 1gr bullet traveling at 12000m/sec imparts 72000000gr/sec2

of energy Damage is exponential with velocity

RailGun test

Railgun US Navy 2008.jpg Photograph taken from a high-speed video camera during a record-setting firing of an electromagnetic railgun (EMRG) at Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren, Va., on January 31, 2008, firing a 3.2 kg projectile at 10.64MJ (megajoules) with a muzzle velocity of 2520 meters per second. The Office of Naval Research's EMRG program is part of the Department of the Navy's Science and Technology investments, focused on developing new technologies to support Navy and Marine Corps war fighting needs. This photograph is a frame taken from a high-speed video camera. U.S. Navy Photograph (Released)

Video

Effort for Full SDI Shield The magnitude of the support effort required 1. # of satellites

since effective range of most systems is 1000km satellites must be in low earth orbit. Therefore on

station only 5% of the time 24000/1000 = 24 satellites for 100% coverage

If each satellite can hit 140 launch vehicles (or 1400 deployed MIRVs) this means 240 satellites

If each satellite requires 3 shuttle/lifter launches

@ $100M apiece…

SDI and Deterrence Stability

If Flexible response is a policy that exists under the umbrella of Mutual assured destruction, does a defensive “shield” destabilize deterrence?

NMD Ground Based Interceptors (GBIs) Battle Management, Command, Control,

and Communications (BMC3), which includes: Battle Management, Command, and Control

(BMC2), and In-Flight Interceptor Communications

System (IFICS) X-Band Radars (XBRs) Upgraded Early Warning Radar (UEWR) Defense Support Program

satellites/Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS)

Accidental launch

Command & control in emerging nuclear arsenals is less secure?

Why should C&C be less capable in a newly emerging nuclear arsenal?

Suppose probability if 1/50 Is risk a series model? A parallel model?

Rogue states

Are rogue states deterrable? It all becomes a question of resolve

Does NMD influence resolve? Does the uncertainty of the

effectiveness influence resolve?

The Future of War What are the key big ticket items in

today’s military? Tanks ($4.3M) Aircraft carriers (~$9B) B2 Bombers (~2.1B) Fighters (~150M)

Increasingly larger portions of procurement costs of weapons systems are devoted to defense

Weapons systems senility

Smart weapons Sensors Increasing load/cost devoted to

system defense Cost of M1A2 is ~$4.3M Cost of Hellfire is $68,000 A SADARM is $65,000

Take Aircraft carriers

Where most effective… Close support in coastal waters

Most vulnerable Anti-ship missiles (e.g. Exocet, Sizzler) Aircraft – 50% + used for carrier

defense Mines

Cost is ~$9B

What Next?

Increasing miniaturization Increasing broadband information

processing Nanotechnology

Horses and Bayonets

Over the next century look for: The End of the Gunboat The End of the Carrier The End of the Tank The End of the Submarine The End of the Manned Combat

Aircraft Sensors, stand-off capability, and

troop mobility

The Evolution of Weapons Systems

Think in terms of Adaptation Survival of fittest Environmental niches

Nuclear Winter

In the 1980s, concern for the climatic effects of nuclear war became notable

The soot caused by urban fires would be lifted to the stratosphere by the plume of firestorms (like this)

Once in the stratosphere, solar heating of the dark dust and soot particles would sustain the particles in the air for decades – (volcanoes do this)

Effects of Nuclear Winter While controversial and currently

hypothetical wide scale use of nuclear weapons could entail A 20 C cooling of large portions of the

centers of the North American, European and Asia land mass.

The means freezing temperatures in the summer

Agriculture becomes impossible, except possibly at or near the equator

Temperature drop – estimatedSource: http://www.mun.ca/biology/scarr/Nuclear_Winter.htm

Further effects

Spread would be global, not restricted to the Northern Hemisphere

Precipitation would drop by 45%-75%

Ozone would be significantly depleted on a global scale