Technical Work Group...2014/01/27  · Some considerations need to be made when deciding which bands could possibly be merged: •Cut offs are tested for only bands 3 and above (as

Technical Work Group

Review of EUC Definitions

15th January 2014

• The purpose of this analysis is to review the appropriateness of current EUC definitions for small and large NDMs.

• Band 9 should be dismissed when considering ‘bands to be merged’ as a band that has daily metered sites will always need to exist and the current boundary can not be changed.

• The data used in this analysis was taken from the Autumn collection (which is used primarily for the performance evaluation).

Analysis has been carried out at national level.

The years that have been analysed are as follows:

• 2009/10 (Gas year)

• 2010/11 (Gas year)

• 2011/12 (Gas year)

• The following slides present the analysis for 2011/12 as the results for all years are fairly consistent.

Background

Additional Analysis

• As requested by TWG (on 27.11.13) the following additional analysis has been carried out:– Band 1 has now been included in the analysis– The daily average consumption has been calculated for each

band – The daily standard deviation has been calculated for each band– An ALP has been calculated for each band

Summary of Sample Size

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Band

Fre

quency

Autumn2010

Autumn2011

Autumn2012

(Updated to include band 1)

Distribution of Sample within EUC Bands 2011/2012

(Updated slide)

Distribution of Sample within EUC Bands 2011/2012

Distribution of Sample within EUC Bands 2011/2012

Distribution of Sample within EUC Bands 2011/2012

Distribution of Sample within EUC Bands 2011/2012

Distribution of Sample within EUC Bands 2011/2012

Distribution of Sample within EUC Bands 2011/2012

Distribution of Sample within EUC Bands 2011/2012

58,600.00 09

58,600.00 29,300.00 08

29,300.00 14,650.00 07

14,650.00 5,860.00 06

5,860.00 2,196.00 05

2,196.00 732.00 04

732.00 293.00 03

293.00 73.20 02

73.20 -01

UpperLowerEUC

MWh

Some considerations need to be made when deciding

which bands could possibly be merged:

•Cut offs are tested for only bands 3 and above

(as agreed by DESC in Dec ’03, with a view to

mitigating summer scaling factor instability

•Upper limit of band 3 cannot be changed due to

the pricing structure (a separate pricing structure

which incorporates bands 2 and 3)

•Bands 4 and above have the same pricing

structure so merges could be possible within

these bands.

Current EUC Boundaries and considerations

Data used in analysis

• The data available that is not dependent on current EUCs:

– Daily Consumption

– LDZ

– LDZ CWV

• The first piece of analysis that was carried out was the assessment of the Winter Annual Ratio (WAR). WAR provides a quick indicator of differences within the sample. The WAR for each site has been calculated to assess how much of the annual consumption is used in the winter months (1st Dec – 31st

Mar) and how this varies within the current bands (See Box Plot).

• WAR has also been plotted on scatter plots by combining EUCs to see if there was a “step change” which indicated a different break point.

Box Plot of WAR across the EUC Bands (2011/12)

Scatter Plots of WAR by Band 2011/12

2011/12 WAR EUC BANDS 1 AND 2

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 50 100 150 200 250

AQ MWh

WA

R

WAR EUC Band 1 2011/12

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

AQ MWh

WA

R

(Updated slide)

Scatter Plots of WAR by Band 2011/122011/12 WAR EUC Bands 2 and 3

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

73 173 273 373 473 573 673

AQ MWh

WA

R

2011/12 WAR EUC Bands 3 and 4

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

293 793 1293 1793

AQ MWh

WA

R

2011/12 WAR EUC Bands 4 and 5

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

732 1732 2732 3732 4732 5732

AQ MWh

WA

R

2011/12 WAR EUC Bands 5 and 6

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2196 4196 6196 8196 10196 12196 14196

AQ MWh

WA

R

Scatter Plots of WAR by Band 2011/122011/12 WAR EUC Bands 6 and 7

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

5860 10860 15860 20860 25860

AQ MWh

WA

R

2011/12 WAR EUC Bands 7 and 8

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

14650 19650 24650 29650 34650 39650 44650 49650 54650

AQ MWh

WA

R

2011/12 WAR EUC Bands 8 and 9

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

29300 329300 629300 929300 1229300 1529300

AQ MWh

WA

R

2011/12 WAR EUC Bands 4, 5 and 6

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

732 2732 4732 6732 8732 10732 12732

AQ MWh

WA

R

Scatter Plots of WAR by Band 2011/12

2011/12 WAR EUC Bands 5, 6 and 7

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2196 7196 12196 17196 22196 27196

AQ MWh

WA

R

2011/12 WAR EUC Bands 6, 7 and 8

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

5860 15860 25860 35860 45860 55860

AQ MWh

WA

R

From observing the WAR across the current bands, it appears that there are

clear similarities between Band 2 & 3 and Band 3 & 4.

There are also possible similarities between Band 4 & 5 and Band 7 & 8.

Daily Average Energy Consumption 2011/12

Band 1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

01

/10

/11

01

/11

/11

01

/12

/11

01

/01

/12

01

/02

/12

01

/03

/12

01

/04

/12

01

/05

/12

01

/06

/12

01

/07

/12

01

/08

/12

01

/09

/12

Date

KW

h

Avg energy Std Dev

Band 2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

01

/10

/11

01

/11

/11

01

/12

/11

01

/01

/12

01

/02

/12

01

/03

/12

01

/04

/12

01

/05

/12

01

/06

/12

01

/07

/12

01

/08

/12

01

/09

/12

Date

KW

h

Avg Energy Std Dev

Band 3

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

01

/10

/11

01

/11

/11

01

/12

/11

01

/01

/12

01

/02

/12

01

/03

/12

01

/04

/12

01

/05

/12

01

/06

/12

01

/07

/12

01

/08

/12

01

/09

/12

Date

KW

h

Avg Energy Std Dev

Band 4

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

01/1

0/1

1

01/1

1/1

1

01/1

2/1

1

01/0

1/1

2

01/0

2/1

2

01/0

3/1

2

01/0

4/1

2

01/0

5/1

2

01/0

6/1

2

01/0

7/1

2

01/0

8/1

2

01/0

9/1

2

Date

KW

h

Avg Energy Std Dev

Daily Average Energy Consumption 2011/12Band 5

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

01

/10

/11

01

/11

/11

01

/12

/11

01

/01

/12

01

/02

/12

01

/03

/12

01

/04

/12

01

/05

/12

01

/06

/12

01

/07

/12

01

/08

/12

01

/09

/12

Date

KW

h

Avg Energy Std Dev

Band 6

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

01

/10

/11

01

/11

/11

01

/12

/11

01

/01

/12

01

/02

/12

01

/03

/12

01

/04

/12

01

/05

/12

01

/06

/12

01

/07

/12

01

/08

/12

01

/09

/12

Date

KW

h

Avg Energy Std Dev

Band 7

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

01

/10

/11

01

/11

/11

01

/12

/11

01

/01

/12

01

/02

/12

01

/03

/12

01

/04

/12

01

/05

/12

01

/06

/12

01

/07

/12

01

/08

/12

01

/09

/12

Date

KW

h

Avg Energy Std Dev

Band 8

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

01

/10

/11

01

/11

/11

01

/12

/11

01

/01

/12

01

/02

/12

01

/03

/12

01

/04

/12

01

/05

/12

01

/06

/12

01

/07

/12

01

/08

/12

01

/09

/12

Date

KW

h

Avg Energy Std Dev

ALPs 2011/12

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

01/1

0/2

011

31/1

0/2

011

30/1

1/2

011

30/1

2/2

011

29/0

1/2

012

28/0

2/2

012

29/0

3/2

012

28/0

4/2

012

28/0

5/2

012

27/0

6/2

012

27/0

7/2

012

26/0

8/2

012

25/0

9/2

012

Date

ALP

Band 1

Band 2

Band 3

Band 4

The ALP has been calculated by calculating the sum of the energy

for the day (by band) and dividing that by the average of the sum

for the whole year (by band).

ALPs 2011/12

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

01/1

0/2

011

31/1

0/2

011

30/1

1/2

011

30/1

2/2

011

29/0

1/2

012

28/0

2/2

012

29/0

3/2

012

28/0

4/2

012

28/0

5/2

012

27/0

6/2

012

27/0

7/2

012

26/0

8/2

012

25/0

9/2

012

Date

ALP

Band 3

Band 4

Band 5

Band 6

ALPs 2011/12

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

01/1

0/2

011

31/1

0/2

011

30/1

1/2

011

30/1

2/2

011

29/0

1/2

012

28/0

2/2

012

29/0

3/2

012

28/0

4/2

012

28/0

5/2

012

27/0

6/2

012

27/0

7/2

012

26/0

8/2

012

25/0

9/2

012

Date

ALP

Band 5

Band 6

Band 7

Band 8

Intercept Analysis

The next piece of analysis carried out was based on the cwv (x)

intercept across the current EUC bands i.e. what the cwv is when

demand (y) is zero – and how this varies across the

bands.

To do this, regressions were calculated by:

• aggregating demand at LDZ level

• using the LDZ cwv

• Mon – Thu (excluding holidays)

Box plot of cwv (x) intercept 2011/12

From observing the cwv intercept across the current bands, it appears that

there are similarities in the relationship between energy consumption and cwv

for Bands 1, 2, 3 and possibly Band 4.

Intercept Analysis

Updated Recommendations / Conclusions

• No strong evidence of better break points from the data

• Daily average consumption shapes suggest the following:

– Band 3, 4 and 5 (and possibly band 2) look very similar

– Band 7 and 8 (and possibly band 6) look very similar

• ALP shapes also suggest that bands 2 & 3 and bands 7 & 8 look very similar

• Possible scope to rationalise Bands 3 to 5 and 6 to 8

• Simpler solution is use of more aggregation in modelling

• More complex change is to alter EUC Bands and/or reduce number of bands

TWG views now invited