Technical Session 4 – Model Development & Calibration 4.1 Calibration of the TRANS Model for the National Capital Region (Ottawa-Hull) Don Stephens P. Eng. Don Stephens P. Eng. Manager, Data Modeling Manager, Data Modeling and Forecasting and Forecasting Region of Ottawa Carleton Region of Ottawa Carleton Mark Campbell P.Eng. Mark Campbell P.Eng. Senior Transportation Planner Senior Transportation Planner Maxim Morrison Hershfield Maxim Morrison Hershfield TRANS/NCR 3 min 1995 Model Calibration 12min
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Technical Session 4 – Model Development & Calibration 4.1 Calibration of the TRANS Model for the National Capital Region (Ottawa-Hull) Don Stephens P.
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Technical Session 4 –
Model Development & Calibration
4.1 Calibration of the TRANS Model for the National Capital Region (Ottawa-Hull)
Don Stephens P. Eng.Don Stephens P. Eng.Manager, Data ModelingManager, Data Modeling and Forecasting and Forecasting Region of Ottawa Carleton Region of Ottawa Carleton
Mark Campbell P.Eng.Mark Campbell P.Eng.Senior Transportation Planner Senior Transportation Planner
- Ontario to Ontario- Ontario to Ontario- Ontario to Quebec- Ontario to Quebec- Quebec to Quebec- Quebec to Quebec- Quebec to Ontario- Quebec to Ontario
Remaining Trip PurposesRemaining Trip Purposes
Gravity Model, Same Style Gravity Model, Same Style as the Work to Home Modelas the Work to Home Model
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
MODAL SPLIT MODELMODAL SPLIT MODEL
• 2 Modes2 Modes - Auto Persons & Auto Vehicles- Auto Persons & Auto Vehicles - Transit- Transit
• Logit ModelLogit Model - Work to Home (UTA)- Work to Home (UTA) - School to Home (UTA)- School to Home (UTA)
• Diversion CurvesDiversion Curves - All Other Trips- All Other Trips
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Mode Trip Cost Total Travel Time Number of Vehicles Province Constantper Household
Auto Person -0.008641 -0.0096
Transit -0.008641 -0.0096 -1.738 -0.8367 0.9091
Auto cost -- Consists of fuel consumption and a parking cost in cents.Transit fare -- Transit fare in cents Veh/household -- Has three groups, 0 for no vehicle/hh, 1 for 1 vehicle/hh, 2 for more than 1 vehicle per household. Province -- 0 for Ontario and 1 for Quebec residents. Travel Time -- Time in minutes to travel from trip origin to trip destination.
Changing the variables will in turn change the auto person modal split to...
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
% Change in % Change in Auto Mode Auto Mode
SplitSplit
Auto Time +10%Auto Time +10%Auto Cost +10%Auto Cost +10%
Transit Time +10%Transit Time +10%
Veh/HH from 1 to 2+Veh/HH from 1 to 2+
Transit Fare +10%Transit Fare +10%
HOME BASED WORK TRIP LOGIT MODEL
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Mode Travel TimeNumber of Vehicles Province Constant
per HouseholdAuto Person
Transit
-4% -3% -2% -1% 0 % 1 % 2 % 3 %
% Change in % Change in Auto Mode Auto Mode
SplitSplit
SCHOOL TO HOME LOGIT MODEL
Out of Vehicle
-0.0926 -1.083 -0.527 2.85
Veh/household -- Has three groups, 0 for no vehicle/hh, 1 for 1 vehicle/hh, 2 for more than 1 vehicle per household. Province -- 0 for Ontario and 1 for Quebec residents.
Out of vehicle -- 0 for auto mode, For transit, total travel time less in vehicle travel time. Changing the variables will in turn change the auto person modal split to...
Transit Out Of Vehicle Travel Time +10%
Vehicle/HH From 1 to 2+
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Auto Mode Split = 1.052 - 0.26 * (1/Transit / Auto Time)
R^2= .91
Auto Person Trips 77,800
Transit Person trips 6,300
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.6
Transit / Auto Time
Au
to M
od
e S
pli
t
Observed
Linear (Observed)
Auto Person Mode Choice Non Work Trips, UTA - (Auto Time 0-15 Min)
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Auto Mode Split = 1.071 - 0.249 * (1/Transit / Auto Time)
R^2= .71
Auto Person Trips 22,500
Transit Person trips 600
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
Transit / Auto Time
Au
to M
od
e S
pli
t
Observed
Linear (Observed)
Auto Person Mode Choice Non Work Trips, UTA - (Auto Time +15 Min)
1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 23 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7
A Joint Technical Committee on Transportation Systems Planning in the National Capital Region
Don Stephens P. Eng.Don Stephens P. Eng.Manager, Data ModelingManager, Data Modeling and Forecasting and Forecasting Region of Ottawa Carleton Region of Ottawa Carleton
Mark Campbell P.Eng.Mark Campbell P.Eng.Senior Transportation Planner Senior Transportation Planner